As Jeremy Fears goes so goes the Bobcats. He is still young and is just 1/4 of the way into his sophmore season. This team is way better than last years team. Compare last years early OOC games with this year and you see the improvement.
last year
wins: San Francisco,Butler, Navy at home & neutral court vs Binghamton.
losses: at St. Francis(pa), at American, at Florida International
this year
wins: St.Francis(pa), American, Detroit, Shippensburg at home & Marist and Rhode Island on the road.
losses:at Cincinnati & semi-away vs Kentucky.
Not too bad. I'm not buying that Ohio or any MAC team can't get an at-large bid. Rpi will improve with a strong MAC season. I think Ohio's rpi will be fine. Detroit will be a contender in the Horizon which should help. Marist might be decent in the MAAC. URI is a middle A-10 team which will provide the sos to balance out St. Francis. American isn't that bad a team and should be ok in the Patriot. The NEC, Patriot, MAAC, A-10,Big East, Horizon, and SEC had good enough OOC seasons to help Ohio's opponnets rpi and sos. A bracketbuster win with strong MAc season and tournament is what we need to do.
There is no question about the quality of Ohio's talent. For me, there is a question about whether a young team can get over the mental hurdle of going into the season with such high expectations, fueled by their fans, and respond by losing the big ones. Before the Bobcat fans jump all over me, this is a question and not a statement. But I contend the toughest challenge O'Shea will have is with his own team.
Buffalo's certainly the pick, but the last few outings show they may just be ready to lose. The Bulls have not beaten anyone of note except Rutgers in Buffalo. Akron has not proven they could get over the hump agianst Cal, Lousiville or Clemson. They've beaten teams all of the top half of the MAC would beat.
As for me, I'd say the MAC is wide open, which should make for a very entertaining season. No one turned in an impressive OOC resume, so it's one and done at the Gund in March.
FlashFan Wrote:Buffalo's certainly the pick, but the last few outings show they may just be ready to lose. The Bulls have not beaten anyone of note except Rutgers in Buffalo. Akron has not proven they could get over the hump agianst Cal, Lousiville or Clemson. They've beaten teams all of the top half of the MAC would beat.
Dont forget our win over Fresno State, which is pretty good, they beat 9-3 Iowa State at their place. And also the mighty Elon Phoneix, ok thats a joke but they did just beat formerly 11-1 Clemson in Clemson last nite
That said, I totally agree with you FlashFan, MAC looks like a one bid conference yet again. As a hopeful and Bias UB fan, maye if they go something like 14-4 in conf play and lose in the finals.. so thatd put them at something like 26-6, then they could possilby get an at large bid. But we all know thats not going to happen due to the nature of our conference and the way teams beat each other down to 5 top teams being 11-7 and 12-6. Id rather have the MACC anyways than an at large bid
At this point of the season, I have to say the Bulls stand the best chance for an at-large bid and for changing the MAC one NCAA bid prospects to two.
My comments from listening to the Bulls game on the radio while watching the OU game the sound muted:
1. Man, Ohio looked great for about 35 minutes. I agree with Hoopsjunkie's assessment- Ohio is incredibly talented but very sloppy with the ball and you have to wonder about their shot selection sometimes. But give them this- they were not only beating Kentucky, they were taking it to Kentucky. Every time UK would cut into the lead, OU responded with some great defense and individual moves for scores. They didn't have an answer, though, when UK clamped down on defense in crunch time. Their poor shot selection might have had something to do with Kentucky's defense.
2. I wouldn't want to count out NIU, Ball St. or Miami just yet. Kent may have their least competitive team in years.
3. I thought Buffalo would lose to Deleware St. last night. Their Sagarins were in the 150's, they beat Kent on the road (which UB has never done), they were competitive against some major schools, including a 14 point loss at Maryland just a few days earilier, and this was their home opener. In the meantime, UB hadn't played in 9 days and was less than impressive at home against Elon in that last game. While I still wish they would upgrade their schedule, last night was a very impressive win, especially the way they came back.
4. Like last year's UB team, the seniors are leading the way. Cage and Middleton are showing some serious grittiness and the ability to win ugly and win close games. And I believe that UB is going to have a very good year in the MAC because of it. They have a SERIOUS home court advantage at Alumni and the tenacity to win some games on the road.
The MAC season is finally upon us- LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!!
Quote:Kent may have their least competitive team in years
Other Flashes fans would agree. I'd say we are even with the last two years. All of our losses have come to either NCAA teams and/or conference champions, and all but one on the road. Delaware State is hard to fugure, but everyone will have a hard to figure loss by the time it's over. Unlike Ohio, Buffalo or Akron, we have not been blown out by any team- our worst loss being Syracuse at the Cariier Dome by 12 after hanging around the entire game.
The Flashes enter MAC play with DeAndre Haynes finally showing up. Last night, he had 17 points and 6 assists while holding All American candidate Gerry McNamara to 10 points on 3 of 13 shooting. His resurgence is our to key to MAC success, and this was his third strong game in a row. We have a very young and talented bench, different than past three years. The weakness is inside, with Gerwig finally hitting his stride then sitting out a few with a knee strain. Warz has struggled moving to the forward position.
Join our board and plenty of other Flashes fans will count them out like you. I'd say not so fast. Guess that's why we have these 18 games coming up. I'm going to see the Bulls/Flashes game at the MACC on Jan. 29. I'll be in the area on business, so thought I'd stop by and call the game. ;-)
Tomznj Wrote:At this point of the season, I have to say the Bulls stand the best chance for an at-large bid and for changing the MAC one NCAA bid prospects to two.
i hate to burst the bubble (pun intended) of UB's fans (well ok i don't really hate to do it!) but there "ain't no way" the NCAA will give an at-large bid to a team whose SOS is #298. unless things drastically improve for you all, i.e., you go 18-0 in the conference but choke away the title game again, you are in the same boat as the rest of us (Ohio included)...you gotta win the MAC tournament to get in.
i don't harbor any sort of delusions that Ohio will get an at-large bid. the world hasn't yet and probably never will forgive us for our second half performance against Cincinnati. i know we have to win the tournament and i know we CAN win the tournament. young teams are odd in how they react to adversity but this team proved last night that it can go toe-to-toe with the nation's best college basketball program. so i'm sure we can make it through the MAC wars (certainly not unscathed, though). we will take our lumps for sure.
i'm just glad it's finally MAC time! this is when it gets good.
A lot of questions left unanswered by the MAC this OOC season.
Ohio and UB both won the home and road games they were expected to win, but didn't do anything special against top ranked programs.
Miami- tough schedule, but didn't do much with it.
Akron-a mirror image of Ohio and UB. Somes good wins, and 1 ugly loss
Kent State-best rpi win is AP. lost at home to Del State
BG- VA Tech win and the rest isn't pretty.
NIU-Depaul win, but North Dakota State?
Toledo-The OOC results are as good as any other MAC team
Ball State- biggest loss was Stoval,
WMU- The didn't do much
EMU-beat Cal, then stunk it up big time
CMU-rpi 320 is worse than Praire View.
Unless OU, Buffalo or NIU goes 16-2 or 17-1 in the conference there will be no at large bid for anyone. End of story. While decents wins, beating Fresno State, Rutgers, URI and Depaul isn't going to impress the selection committee enough to give the MAC a 2nd bid.
ksu315 Wrote:Unless OU, Buffalo or NIU goes 16-2 or 17-1 in the conference there will be no at large bid for anyone. End of story. While decents wins, beating Fresno State, Rutgers, URI and Depaul isn't going to impress the selection committee enough to give the MAC a 2nd bid.
I think you're setting the bar way too high, at least for Buffalo. Certainly, much of their NCAA hopes are tied to how Fresno St. and Rutgers do this season. But, I think Buffalo could go 13-5 in the MAC (23-6 overall) and still get an at-large bid, even if they don't win the MAC tourney.
The only way the MAC is going to get two bids is if there is a huge difference between the top two teams in the conference and the rest. Then those two teams have to play each other in the championship. Even then it is still suspect.
If you are on the bubble, you'd better have 22+ wins and 1 or more wins against OOC major conf. teams going to the tourney. Who will have that?
UB and Ohio have a combined 3 losses this season all on the road to BC, UC, and UK. It is too early to write off an at-large bid until either team drops more than 3 MAC regular season games. I do think that a 27-4 UB or a 24-6 Ohio team would get in with a loss in the MAC tournament finals. Ohio and UB are both top 75 rpi right now. Avoiding bad losses will be the key. Who is a bad loss in the MAC? Any rpi over 100 is a bad loss for a team lacking a big name win OOC. If UB were to spit with OU, Miami, and Akron and sweep everybody else they are fine. For Ohio a split with UB, Miami, and Akron and sweep everybody else. 15-3 in the MAC plus 2 wins in Cleveland should be enough and a good bracketbuster win. Bucknell or a top Missouri Valley team like Missouri State would be enough to help Ohio or UB stay in the bubble mix and get in over a 8-8 team like WV, Depaul, Notre Dame with 12-13 losses.
BGFalcons Wrote:But, I think Buffalo could go 13-5 in the MAC (23-6 overall) and still get an at-large bid, even if they don't win the MAC tourney.
No way that happens, especially considering the Selection Committee's tendencies in the recent past. The Committee's going to look at the following:
--Buffalo's place in the standings. A record of 13-5 might be only good enough for second place in the division.
--Teams that accounted for the 5 losses. None of those can be against "inferior" teams. One bad loss is all it takes these days for a MAC team.
--How many conference losses is too many for a MAC team? Five has seemed to be too many in the eyes of Committee members.
--The round Buffalo was knocked out of the MAC Tournament. It can't happen before the title game.
--Teams Buffalo would be competing against for an at-large bid. For me, this is the big one because the Committee is going to compare all the teams in the running. Buffalo's OOC wins likely won't stack up against those of teams in power conferences. But that's not Buffalo's or the MAC's biggest concern. What's really going to kill the MAC's chances for a second bid is the MVC being even more loaded than usual this season. Not only is the conference deeper than the MAC this season, but the MVC has owned the MAC and has a more impressive OOC resume. As deep as the MVC is, the teams will probably cannibalize each other so that the regular season champ will probably have 5 conference losses. If that happens, and the Committee compares the teams in the two conferences, the MAC is going to come out on the short end.
OU had the best shot at getting into position for an at-large berth -- defending MAC tourney champ, returning all its players, preseason hype, two games against high-profile opponents -- but the Bobcats couldn't get it done against Cincinnati or Kentucky. As a result, it's likely another single bid for the MAC.
Buffalo is the only possible at large. If they win the league with 14 or 15 games, beat a good opponent in bracket buster and go to the semis or final of the MAc tourney they have 23 to 25 wins and might get in.
Nobody else will. Dec. 30th killed our chances. NIU loses nuetral court game against fair opponent, Kent loses last chance for upset win, Eastern loses to the worst team in D1, and OU blows the Kentucky game.
As for OU i was bothered by Oshea's post game comments. Saying," we just wanted to battle them and have a shot at then end" sort of puts Kentucky on pedestal. OU should have had a killer instinct in this game and put UK away when they were down 5-9 points for most of the second half. OU has more talent in their top 6 or 7 guys. I thought they played afraid to win down the stretch, didn't use the bench enough, and ended up with a tired hesitant squad on the floor in the final minutes. Yeah, it's Kentucky but they're still not near dominant as a team this year. OU was faster and more skillful, not quite as big or aggressive on the boards and about even in team defense. Step up and win or enjoy your NIT trip in March.
Folks, Buffalo has no shot at an at-large. They haven't played anyone. I wish they had a shot, for the conference's sake, but the #285 SOS doesn't get you into the Dance without an automatic bid. That's why their RPI is only #78 despite a 9-1 (D-I) record.
At this point, an at-large is unlikely. Either Ohio or NIU might get one, but that would require a gaudy MAC record (15-3 or better), a quality Bracket Buster win, and a trip to the MAC Tournament finals. Plus we'd need a lack of upsets in the WCC, MAAC, MCC, MVC, etc.
BobcatFan Wrote:Folks, Buffalo has no shot at an at-large. They haven't played anyone. I wish they had a shot, for the conference's sake, but the #285 SOS doesn't get you into the Dance without an automatic bid. That's why their RPI is only #78 despite a 9-1 (D-I) record.
At this point, an at-large is unlikely. Either Ohio or NIU might get one, but that would require a gaudy MAC record (15-3 or better), a quality Bracket Buster win, and a trip to the MAC Tournament finals. Plus we'd need a lack of upsets in the WCC, MAAC, MCC, MVC, etc.
The RPI will get higher once they enter league play. Again, the wins over Rutgers or Fresno St. could end up looking much better if Rutgers or Fresno St. has a good season. Buffalo has a much better shot than both OU and NIU.
BGFalcons Wrote:The RPI will get higher once they enter league play. Again, the wins over Rutgers or Fresno St. could end up looking much better if Rutgers or Fresno St. has a good season. Buffalo has a much better shot than both OU and NIU.
Their RPI might get higher, but unless Buffalo runs away with the title they are unlikely to pass Ohio or NIU in RPI.
At-larges are based on much more than win total. All Buffalo has done is beat the teams it was supposed to beat. So did Ohio. NIU pulled some upsets.
At this point, Ohio is still the favorite, with NIU 2nd, and Akron/Buffalo 3rd in my book. Buffalo will still struggle to win more than 11 games in the MAC.
All of this talk about who can get an at-large and who can't is just conjecture. So, to add to the mix, I'll post what Kyle Whelliston, founder of the Mid-Majority Report (AKA someone who probably knows more of this subject than we do) said on his most recent chatroom visit to ESPN.com. Just as an FYI...especially to those (UB) fans who are still in denial!
nate b. cincy,oh: although, the bobcats of OU were blasted in cincy against the bearcats, can they find a way to tear through the MAC and become a legit cinderella in the tourney?
Kyle Whelliston: This is a huge, huge, huge game for any MAC two-bid scenario. All due respect to Buffalo, but the Bobcats are the only one with the schedule strength to pull this off. How I see it, you're allowed one bad loss to a bad team -- Ohio's had theirs. You can work off that loss by winning the rest of your big-RPI games and then prevailing big-time in your Bracket Buster. Once again, I'm using the example of Nevada 2004-05 as a template -- if you remember, the Wolfpack lost 85-52 at Kansas last year and still made it in as an at-large.