CSNbbs

Here's my take. Read and comment below.

<a href="http://www.vandelaysports.com/news/2002_07_12.htm" target="_blank">College Football Future?</a>

Nick,

Just curious about why you believe that KSU will survive the 1-A attendance requirements. Do you have some insider information about their plans or the MAC's plans? Your opinion runs contrary to most "pundits" and posters that you see around.

Also why would Buffalo drop f-ball after just moving up several years ago? Why wouldn't UB and EMU just go 1-AA? Cost?

I'm not being critical. I'm just wondering if you have some information that you have based this on?

I like the thought - Army and Navy would be a great addition (sorry Eastern and Buffalo). However, no matter how much I like it, I don't se it happening. NY has put money into the UB program and I think it will pay-off in the next few years. Eastern has a lot of money in facilities, maybe the best in the MAC for football - but an empty house cost money to maintain.

Maybe the MAC and C-USA have a play-in to the championsip game?

But, the additiona of Army and NAVY would be nice! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Cool]" src="cool.gif" />

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Just curious about why you believe that KSU will survive the 1-A attendance requirements. Do you have some insider information about their plans or the MAC's plans? Your opinion runs contrary to most "pundits" and posters that you see around. <hr /></blockquote>My reading of the new attendance requirements means that you can count every single person that is inside the stadium - paid fans, media, coaches, players, students, etc. Some schools may end up literally giving away tickets to meet the 15,000 average attendance requirements.

It's wishful thinking, Nick.

The Pac Ten adding Brigham Young and *Hawaii*?

Hawaii? As in, Hawaii, the team from the WAC that can't even get the time of day from the Mountain West?

And I don't see Buffalo dropping football... or the MAC cutting any one.

Finally, Marshall-to-the-CUSA strikes me as the single most likely new conference affiliation in college football today.... certainly more likely than Notre Dame to the Big Ten (within our lifetimes).

The problem Nick is that your vision uses logic and you can't spell logic with the letters N C A A.

I see the moronic decisions continue. I personally believe that only 1 or 2 schools will drop football at the most. The rest will use smoke and mirrors to scrape out a miserable 1-A experience indefinitely hurting themselves and the conferences they live in.

I do not believe the big 'conference shake-up' will materialize AT ALL. It is just a warning shot to weak members of conferences to get their collectives acts together. Don't kid yourself, the NCAA has NO TRADITION of making big exciting changes.

There's nothing here that wasn't posted on r.s.f.c or S.O. 5 years ago Nick. Unfortunately, most of it is based on bad logic.

As RF pointed out, Hawaii to the Pac 10? Fuhgetaboutit.
Even BYU is a stretch. Most people don't realize how important academics are to conferences. ASU in the Pac 10 is about as far down as they want to sink. Utah is a better academic program, and has a better chance than BYU.

ND to the Big 10. More logic here, but ND's poor grad programs were a big strike against last time. Economic forces may cause this to be, but ND is losing luster all the time. Remember when TCU was a football powerhouse? I didn't think so. The Big 10 would rather have Syracuse.

MWC expanding? No way. They formed this to get away from such expansion. The WAC will survive, but probably in a different form.

CUSA? Interesting stuff here. La Tech belongs here, and could have some good games against So Miss. But 16 teams is unwieldy and I don't see all of it happening.

<blockquote>quote:<hr />My reading of the new attendance requirements means that you can count every single person that is inside the stadium - paid fans, media, coaches, players, students, etc. Some schools may end up literally giving away tickets to meet the 15,000 average attendance requirements. <hr /></blockquote>My understanding is that the University of Michigan has always counted this way. Whether they count players and coaches (which wouldn't make too much sense to me), I don't know. But they do count pretty much everyone else.

Several things I don't see happening.

1. Miami to the ACC. Why? Miami is the king of the Big East. They are looking at being kings for a long time, with maybe a push from one or two schools a year. Miami has no reason to get into a conference battle with Florida State, it isn't in their best interest. I just don't see this happening.

2. Louisville to the Big East. While I see UL to the Big East, UL to the Big East, and no other teams with them will not happen. In order for there to be a change in the Big East, there will have to be a split with a basketball school, maybe Notre Dame as you predict to the Big Ten, but I also don't see the Big East adding a ninth member only. There is no reason for it. It doesn't bring any more media exposure, or a championship game, and just means that the football revenues are split one more way.
Look for four teams to join the Big East, Miami staying, and the basketball schools leaving to form their own deal before this scenario breaks out. Dropping the basketball schools, adding Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU, Marshall, Central Florida or some combination thereof, seems more likely.
Adding UC and Louisville would shore up the basketball side after the loss of G-town, Nova and St. Johns.
All the schools would bring a football presence, and UCF would bring a big media market, lost when Temple and Nova left.

Will any of that happen? Better chance than your scenario.

3. BYU and Hawaii to the Pac-10. No friggin way.

4. Army and Navy to the MAC. May make more sense than you think, especially if CUSA loses three teams to the Big East, but I don't see it.

5. Temple dropping football. Won't happen. They just built a huge practice complex, and now they have a new stadium going up that they will share with the Eagles. They will continue to play. Possibly joining the MAC. If the MAC could get them in for all sports, it would be a tremendous coup.

6. Buffalo dropping football. Why? Why would they sink all this money into the program and then just drop it? I see them becoming a force in the MAC before I see them dropping the sport.

Never been a "BCS shake-up in "x" number of years" guy, and I'm not going to start now.

The BCS conferences are not about to implode, nor start adding a lot of non-BCS teams (BYU, Hawaii, Louisville etc). It is possible that there is going to be some shifting of teams between them (Miami to the ACC, etc), but I don't see as much BCS change as you do.

The BCS:
==================================================
ACC: adds Miami, Va-Tech and either BC or Syracuse to beef up FB.

BigEast: loses 3 teams to ACC, and the rest are not enough to retain BCS credentials. The non-FB BigEast teams decide not to expand to save a non-BCS FB Conference (and re-bloat their BB conference in the process). They boot Rutgers and West Virginia from their BB line-up (the BB schools never wanted them in anyway). Either Syracuse or BC, UConn and Pitt stay in the BigEast for non-FB sports, but look to form a new FB conference. The BE then adds the non-FB teams from C-USA to get to 12 teams - and absorb most of the major Catholic schools in the nation (natural rivalries). New Line-up is:
EAST: BC or Syracuse, UConn, Providence, St.John's, Seton Hall, Charlotte
WEST: Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame, DePaul, Marquette, St.Louis

Big11, SEC, Big12, Pac-10 and ND all remain the same

The Non-BCS
==================================================
LittleEast: The 5 BigEast FB leftovers try and salvage a meaningful and sane non-BCS line-up of eastern teams for FB. They (either Syracuse or BC, Pitt, UConn, Rutgers and West Virginia) invite eastern independents (Navy, Temple) and some MAC and C-USA schools (Cincinnati, Louisville, Army, ECU, Memphis, and Marshall).

They need 13 schools to get to the required 8 full-time members (3 BigEast schools, Army and Navy are all FB-only members). Although, maybe they skip an academy and stay at 12 too.

Choices.....Rationale
-------------------------------------------------
1) Syracuse or BC (FB-only)....biggest name FB school available
2-3) UConn and Pitt (FB-only)....need a home for FB, and can't get Syracuse or BC without them (Pitt has decent FB)
4-5) Rutgers and WestVirginia....founding members
6-7) Army and Navy (FB-only)....attendence
8-9-10) Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis....all three for BB, UL for FB and the other 2 are decent in FB
11-12) ECU and Marshall....FB
13) Temple.....BB, and they NEED an 8th all-sports member to remain a I-A conference

MAC: Loses a few teams to I-AA (EMU, KentSt, Akron and Buffalo), loses Marshall to LittleEast and UCF to C-USA (once Marshall is gone). Adds MTSU from SunBelt implosion (to get 4 home I-A games per year in conference).
New FB Line-up: NoIll, BallSt, WMU, CMU, Toledo, BGSU, Miami(OH), Ohio, MTSU
non-FB: FB Line-up teams plus EMU, KentSt, Akron and Buffalo (maybe they add a non-FB school to get to an even 14 schools for non-FB. Maybe one of: WesternKy, OaklandU, Detroit-Mercy, ClevelandSt, Valparaiso, Butler...

C-USA: Loses UC, UL, ECU, Memphis and Army to LittleEast. Loses non-FB schools to BigEast BB. Remaining line-up is only 6 schools (all all-sports) and decidedly southern/gulf area (TCU, Houston, SoMiss, UAB, Tulane, USF) so they add teams in that region to make for a sane travel schedule and natural rivalries. Add UCF from the MAC to go with USF. Add La-Tech, SMU, Rice and Tulsa from the WAC. Add one other school to get to 12 members, which could be either UTEP or NMSU (UTEP refuses to be in the same conference as NMSU), TroySt, or any leftover eastern SBC team (La-Laf, La-Mon, UNT or ArkSt).

MWC: Adds FresnoSt to get 4 home games per year. If they lose Wyoming to I-AA (possible, but not likely), then they raid the WAC again (likely killing the WAC altogether since it would leave less than 8 available I-A teams to rebuild the WAC with).

WAC: Loses La-Tech, SMU, Rice and Tulsa to C-USA, (maybe UTEP too). Loses FresnoSt to MWC. Loses SJSU to I-AA for FB. Remaining members (Hawaii, BoiseSt, Nevada, maybe UTEP) have to grab any team they can find: Idaho, UtahSt are obvious choices, as well as NMSU if UTEP leaves. Either way, they still only have 6 teams. They MUST take in at least 2 more I-A FB teams of: UNT, La-Laf, La-Mon, ArkSt, TroySt. If 2 more of these schools don't survive the new I-A requirements, then the WAC is decertified as a I-A FB conference.

Hard to understand why Temple would drop football before some MAC teams that are having great difficulty meeting the newly adopted 1-A standards.

I guess that was the only glaring issue as far as your prognosis is concerned.

I went to the UT game at Temple last season. They ran a promotion featuring Run DMC at halftime.

The attendance was so terrible, there were almost as many UT fans as Temple fans. Most of the Temple fans were students, which probably came to see Run DMC.

Outside of that game I don't know what their attendance is, but I would have to believe that playing the Miami's, Virginia Tech's, and Syracuse's of the Big East are the only reason that their attendance isn't terrible.

[ July 16, 2002, 01:15 PM: Message edited by: rocketfootball ]

Temple isn't an easy problem to pinpoint but there are a couple of glaring problems there.

1. They never give a coach a chance to build anything there. You can't turn a team like Temple around in two or three years, and they always get impatient and fire their coach after three or four, which starts the entire process over again.
In my opinion, the worst thing a school can do is get in a cycle of firing their coach every four or five years.

2. The result of the revolving door of coaches is losing, losing, losing. And the fact of the matter is, people don't pay to see a loser. Add that together with a city that has the Phillies, the Eagles, the Sixers, the Flyers, Villanova, Penn, LaSalle, etc, people aren't going to come watch the Owls lose by 30.

I think adding Temple to the MAC would help both parties. The MAC gets to add a first rate basketball program, and Temple gets into a football conference they have a chance at competing in.

The ACC offered it up to Miami once, who then declined. Word is they're preparing another offer for the Big Least's big bad bully.

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Herd Swimming:

I think adding Temple to the MAC would help both parties. <hr /></blockquote>I struggle with this actually. I want to add teams that you would feel proud to knock off. Beating Temple is like challenging your grandma to a boxing match, sure she can take a hit but when she falls you feel no personal gain. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" /> How's that for an example?!

Teams I would like to add or, more likely, merge with in the future: La. Tech, most of C-USA, WVU, Pitt, BC, and maybe even MTSU if they keep it up.

I agree that Temple doesn't bring visions of Knute Rockne on the football field. And as a football program, they add nothing to the mix.

But they would immediately bring a national presence to the basketball league.

Consider that Temple's women's basketball team was the Atlantic Ten Champ last year.
Their softball team finished second in the A-10 last year.
They also won the lacrosse title last year in the A-10.

Temple may just drop to 1-AA and keep all sports in the A-10. But if they want to stay D-1A they will need a conference.

And I would take them in football to get them in everything else.

<blockquote>quote:<hr />I agree that Temple doesn't bring visions of Knute Rockne on the football field. And as a football program, they add nothing to the mix.<hr /></blockquote>I think folks are underrating Temple football. I know that sounds hard to do. But hear me out.

Temple has a pretty sad history versus the MAC, but here are the last two years:

2000
W 49-40 vs Eastern Michigan
W 31-14 vs Bowling Green

2001
L 33-7 vs Toledo
L 42-23 at Bowling Green

That isn't bad, really. It suggests a bit of improvement. And, keep in mind, Temple beat West Virginia and Rutgers last year, too.

Throw in the fact that the Owls play in one of the nation's top five markets and... I'd still like to see them in the MAC, even for football only.

I think Temple would get better playing the MAC. The Big East is just too overwhelming.

I don't mean insult to Buffalo or Northern Illinois ... but adding Temple in football would be at least as smart as adding either of those two schools. The football is about as good, if not better than those schools were when they came in. And the market is more valuable.

It would be nice for the MAC to try to lure Temple in all-sports, but I dont' see that as realistic. The A-10 tournament is always in Philadelphia. Temple owns the A-10 in hoops like Miami owns the Big East in football, and Temple fans probably find A-10 schools more interesting foes.

I don't see any incentive at all for Temple to bring other sports to the MAC.

I think Temple will find a way to stay in the Big East for football. If not, the MAC might get a chance at football only.

The only way all-sports makes sense is if Temple brings Massachusetts with it. And, realistically, that means the MAC will have lost members and be looking for new ones. To grow beyond 14 is awfully dicey, if you ask me.

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Herd Swimming:
I agree that Temple doesn't bring visions of Knute Rockne on the football field. And as a football program, they add nothing to the mix.

But they would immediately bring a national presence to the basketball league.<hr /></blockquote><img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" /> <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" /> <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" />

I guess some Marshall fans do care about sports other than football. Great to hear!!!

<img border="0" alt="[Cheers]" title="" src="graemlins/cheers.gif" />

Most people who know Marshall for more than just the last six or seven years would tell you that Marshall was a basketball school for years.

You don't hear people talking about Marshall basketball much because Greg White sucks.
Therefore, Marshall basketball is relegated to also ran status, and will be as long as he is coach.

I don't see the major change happening that some others see. I see possibly due to the new D-1 requirements that the MAC may form a partnership with another conference, for example the soon to be 1-AA Sunbelt conference. This would do a few things. First it would give the teams we have that can't cut the 1-A line an outlet and a new hopefully temporary new home football conference while keeping them in the MAC for other sports. The SBC would also benefit since their 1-A qualifiers woudl have a new FB only home. Effectively what this would do for FB is send MTSU and possibly New Mexico St. to the MAC for FB and EMU, Akron, Kent. St., and Buffalo to the SBC for 1-AA FB. Non 1-A qualifiers could go to the SBC while 1-AA teams that meet 1-A requirements would come "up" to the MAC. Another benefit would be for sports that only a few schools have the conferences could combine and form a consolidated conference. A weak example of this is Womens swimming the MAC has 6 members and the SBC has 5 members. I would like to see the MAC's single sport members keep their association like Kentucky in men's soccer and Louisville in Field Hockey. These schools provide better name recognition for coaches recruiting in these sports. Back to FB if we gain 2 and lose four teams we can still prvoide a conference chapionship game. I would also be interested in seeing the MAC go for Temple for its name in hoops and the Philadelphia market. I hate to say it but Temple would have a better chance of becoming competitive in FB in the MAC against Toledo, Marshall and my Broncos than Va. Tech. and Miami (FL). This also provides a back-up in case of failure by one of our other teams, possibly BGSU (one winning season and attendance goes up 8,000 what happens when they throw in a losing season again), NIU (perennially on the 15,000 attendance bubble), or even NMSU (could decide that the deals works well for MTSU but Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are too far to travel 4 time annually and go to 1-AA with the remainder of the SBC). It would be a tremendous coup if we could get Temple from the A-10 for all sports.

Vandelay

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David75URS

MAKO

RochesterFalcon

Econoknight

DrTorch

RochesterFalcon

Herd Swimming

nert

Chevy1

rocketfootball

Herd Swimming

georgia_tech_swagger

Econoknight

Herd Swimming

RochesterFalcon

rocketfootball

Herd Swimming

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