09-05-2002, 06:19 AM
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Week #2
September 4, 2002
After starting off with a sizzling 12-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS picks last week, let’s try to keep a good thing going with this week’s Nick’s Picks from VanDelaySports.com Note: Bowling Green and Marshall are idle this week.
Ohio State 37 – Kent State 10
The Facts:
The Buckeyes have not lost to a team from Ohio since the late 1800s.
Since beating Toledo 49-0 in 1998, OSU has not covered in their past three contests against MAC schools with an average line –30.
OSU is 6-2 in their last eight games after a bye week.
Going back to last season, Kent State has won six of their last seven games.
Kent State is 1-5 in their last six lined openers
Kent State is 6-2 ATS as a 25-point or more dog.
The Dish: In all honesty, Ohio State is far superior in ever phase in this contest with the exception of the quarterback and placekicking positions. If the Buckeyes want to, they can name the score in this contest. QB Joshua Cribbs is the MAC’s Michael Vick and his athletic abilities should help KSU move the ball, but the true sophomore will be facing the best team he has ever seen. Tressel has a lot of class and knows the trials and tribulations of being a mid-major program with a shoestring budget. Ohio State will not show anything too different in preparation for their game with Washington State the following week. Look for Ohio State to win but not cover as KSU tries to win some support of potential recruits on hand.
The Line: Ohio State by 29.5
Iowa 33 – Miami 24
The Facts:
This is the first time that Miami has ever hosted a Big Ten team. Iowa has never travel to a MAC school prior to this contest.
Iowa won last year’s game 44-19 after jumping out to a 44-0 lead in the 3rd quarter.
Since losing to Western Michigan 27-21 2000, Iowa has beaten three straight MAC teams by an average margin of 37-points per game.
Iowa was 2-3 ATS as a single digit favorite in 2001.
Cal Poly plays at Kent State later this September.
The Dish: As a huge MAC fan I really want to pick Miami here, but Iowa has been pounding MAC teams of late and has a very good team. Miami surprised a lot people last week by running the ball so well at North Carolina. Miami entered that game believing they could win while they are entering this game looking for revenge from last year’s wipe out. As Coach Hoeppner told me during the MAC Media Preview Day in Detroit this past July, “Iowa TKO’d us pretty quick last time.” If Miami doesn’t get their best home crowd in school history, there is something wrong in Oxford. Miami has a real chance to win this game, but my crystal ball reads Hawkeyes by just over a touchdown.
The Line: Iowa by 5.5
Michigan 28 - Western Michigan 14
The Facts:
Michigan beat Western Michigan last year 38-21 and leads the series 3-0.
Since 1993, Michigan is 22-32 ATS as double-digit favorites.
Two of the past three MAC schools have covered the spread against Michigan since 2000.
Western Michigan is just 1-6 straight up against Big Ten teams since 1993, but 4-3 ATS.
The Dish: Michigan escaped last week with a 31-29 last second victory over Washington. Last year, Western Michigan caught the Wolverines just after a difficult road loss to the Huskies and UM beat on WMU for the relatively easy win. This year it’s a little different, UM won last week and travels to Notre Dame next week, so I see Michigan not playing as well. Also, this WMU is a little better than last year’s Bronco team and should compete quite well. Look for a decent game with Western losing, but playing UM closer than last year’s game.
The Line: Michigan by 22
Central Michigan 30 – Wyoming 21
The Facts:
Wyoming won the only previous meeting between these two schools, 31-10 in Laramie in 2000. Since that win, Wyoming is has gone 2-18.
Last week CMU beat Sam Houston State 34-10 while Wyoming lost to Tennessee 47-7.
Wyoming is 2-6 ATS as a single digit dog since 2000.
CMU has not opened a season with two straight home games since 1993.
CMU has not beaten a IA non-conference opponent since 1997.
The Dish: Coach DeBord told me this past summer how excited he was with this schedule of hosting their first two opponents and how he felt they could get a fast start to the season for once. DeBord has really improved this team’s speed and physical presence and this is not the same program that the Cowboys beat in 2000. In fact since that game, these two programs have gone in opposite directions with the ‘Chips going forward and Wyoming going backwards. If CMU continues to run the ball well and continues to tackle better as they did against SHS, Central Michigan may win this game by more than the margin I have listed here.
The Line: Central Michigan by 1.5
Missouri 41 – Ball State 16
The Facts:
This is Ball State’s first game this season while Missouri beat Illinois last weekend.
Ball State has not won a game in September since 1997. In fact, The Cardinals are 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS in their past 15 September contests.
Former Toledo boss Gary Pinkel, now at Missouri was 5-4-1 against Ball State as a coach at Toledo.
Pinkel opened last season with a home loss to Bowling Green from the MAC.
In Pinkel’s second year at Toledo, his team improved from 5-5-1 to 8-3. This is his second year at Missouri after going 4-7 last year.
The Dish: Gary Pinkel’s last game as a Rocket was a 51-17 thrashing of archrival Bowling Green in route to a 10-1 season. His first game then last year at Missouri was BG, and his Tigers lost 20-13 and he was heckled as he left the field. Pinkel has since changed a lot of minds in Columbia (MO) and this team is much better than last year’s team. Missouri beat the defending Big Ten champ Illinois last week in St. Louis and although Pinkel had a lot of trouble with Ball State when he was at Toledo, the Cardinals have opened every season since 1996 very poorly. This is a good BSU team, but I like Missouri to beat them pretty good as I expect the Cardinals to start off slowly again this season.
The Line: Missouri by 16
Toledo 31 – Eastern Michigan 16
The Facts:
Toledo beat I-AA Cal Poly last week 44-16; EMU lost at Michigan State 56-7.
Although Toledo leads the series 19-10, EMU has won three of the last nine games played.
EMU has covered the spread in four the last five games between these two schools, with an average line of Toledo -16.
Toledo is 6-1 both ATS and SU in their last seven road openers.
Toledo is 17-10 as an away favorite since 1998.
Eastern Michigan had the youngest IA football team in country last year.
The Dish: No team has given Toledo fits more than Eastern Michigan these past few years. When you consider how much more talented UT has been over EMU, the fact that the Eagles have won three of the last nine and nearly won two others is mind bottling. For some reason EMU rises up and plays Toledo well and I expect that to happen again even though the Rockets looked pretty good last week and EMU looked like EMU against Michigan State. Coach Woodruff told me this past July he was glad to play Toledo early this year rather than later considering how many new faces UT has, especially on defense. Toledo will win, but not my three touchdowns.
The Line: Toledo by 22
Maryland 36 – Akron 20
The Facts:
This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last week Maryland lost to Notre Dame 22-0 while Akron was hammered at Iowa 57-21.
Akron is 5-14 ATS as an away dog in their last 19 September away games.
Akron is 3-10 ATS in the second part of a two-game road trip.
Maryland was 7-0 SU and ATS last year at home.
The MAC won both games against ACC teams last weekend.
The Dish: I really thought that Akron would play Iowa better last week, but that wasn’t the case. Notre Dame shut out Maryland, and that was surprising for a team that went 10-2 last year and won the ACC. Now take into account that the MAC went 2-0 against the ACC last week and you can bet the ‘Terps will want to run it up on Zips a little more than they may have two weeks ago. Akron QB Charlie Frye played very well in spite of the catastrophes that took place against the Hawkeyes, so I’m sticking with my notion that Akron will make this a little closer than the odds makers think.
The Line: Maryland by 24
South Florida 35 – Northern Illinois 27
The Facts:
Series: NIU won the only meeting last year 20-17 at home. NIU was a 17-point favorite.
Last weekend NIU beat Wake Forest in overtime 42-41 while USF beat I-AA Florida Atlantic 51-10.
USF returns 8 starters on both sides of the ball from a team that went 8-3 in 2001 and was 11 points away from going 10-1.
USF has covered in five of their last seven games.
NIU is 9-3 ATS on grass in the last four years.
The Dish: South Florida is an up and coming program and in all honesty if they were in C-USA right now (they join in 2003), they would win that bush league outright. NIU escaped last week and beat the Bulls on a last second FG to open last season at home. There is a lot of confidence for the Huskies and they will play well, but the one thing I noticed against Wake Forest last week is how much faster the Demon Deacons were compared to NIU. USF is even faster than Wake, so I’ll take the home team in a game that features two talented but relatively unknown football programs.
The Line: South Florida by 6
Rutgers 31 – Buffalo 26
The Facts:
Both teams lost at home to I-AA programs last week. UB lost to Lehigh 37-26 while RU lost to Villanova 37-19.
Rutgers won last year at UB 31-15. UB lost at Rutgers in 2000 59-0.
Rutgers is just 6-12 at home ATS since 1993
The Dish: You can’t ballyhoo a funeral here people. These two teams may be the very worst in IA football this season. Buffalo will every chance to win this game since Rutgers is not good. Of course, Rutgers looks at this game in the same way. Rutgers has more speed and a little more experience, so give the nod in a close game to the Scarlet Knights.
The Line: Rutgers by 9
UCF 38 – Arizona State 27
The Facts:
UCF lost at Penn State 27-24 last weekend while ASU has played two games already; beating Eastern Washington 38-2 and losing to Nebraska 48-10.
UCF has never played a PAC-Ten team.
Sun Devils have won and covered in 5 of their last 6 OOC.
ASU has 10 of 14 home games in September since 1994.
UCF has covered 8 of their last 11 lined contests.
The Dish: UCF nearly pulled off a super come from behind win at Penn State last week. UCF had a dreadful 3rd quarter that killed them from winning a big OOC road game. That won’t be the case this week as only about 55,000 will be in attendance rather than 107,000, and ASU is not as good as PSU. Look for UCF to play with even more confidence and show that the 4th best team in Florida is better than the best team in Arizona. The Sun Devils will be looking past the Golden Knights and UCF’s talent is better at almost every position.
The Line: Arizona State by 4
Ohio 40 – Northeastern 14
The Facts:
Northeastern is a I-AA team from the Atlantic 10 Conference. Last week they beat Division II Lock Haven 48-0. The Huskies went 5-6 last year.
Ohio had six turnovers last week, including 5 INTs, is a loss 27-14 at Pitt.
Since Ohio’s Stadium renovation project completed last summer, the Bobcats 0-5 at home at Peden Stadium.
He last time Northeastern played a I-A team was 1999 and they lost at Boston College 33-22.
The Dish: When you consider that OU did not win one single home game last season after all of the beautiful upgrades and additions they did to Peden Stadium, that makes my head spin. Perhaps they needed a team like Northeastern to play in their first game last year rather than Iowa State? Northeastern is just what the doctor ordered for Coach Knorr’s Bobcats, a team that is much slower, smaller and with less depth. If Ohio can cut down on their turnovers (six last week at Pitt), they should win this game by even a bigger margin than what I have listed. In fact, they should have beaten Pitt last weekend.
The Line: None
Week #2
September 4, 2002
After starting off with a sizzling 12-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS picks last week, let’s try to keep a good thing going with this week’s Nick’s Picks from VanDelaySports.com Note: Bowling Green and Marshall are idle this week.
Ohio State 37 – Kent State 10
The Facts:
The Buckeyes have not lost to a team from Ohio since the late 1800s.
Since beating Toledo 49-0 in 1998, OSU has not covered in their past three contests against MAC schools with an average line –30.
OSU is 6-2 in their last eight games after a bye week.
Going back to last season, Kent State has won six of their last seven games.
Kent State is 1-5 in their last six lined openers
Kent State is 6-2 ATS as a 25-point or more dog.
The Dish: In all honesty, Ohio State is far superior in ever phase in this contest with the exception of the quarterback and placekicking positions. If the Buckeyes want to, they can name the score in this contest. QB Joshua Cribbs is the MAC’s Michael Vick and his athletic abilities should help KSU move the ball, but the true sophomore will be facing the best team he has ever seen. Tressel has a lot of class and knows the trials and tribulations of being a mid-major program with a shoestring budget. Ohio State will not show anything too different in preparation for their game with Washington State the following week. Look for Ohio State to win but not cover as KSU tries to win some support of potential recruits on hand.
The Line: Ohio State by 29.5
Iowa 33 – Miami 24
The Facts:
This is the first time that Miami has ever hosted a Big Ten team. Iowa has never travel to a MAC school prior to this contest.
Iowa won last year’s game 44-19 after jumping out to a 44-0 lead in the 3rd quarter.
Since losing to Western Michigan 27-21 2000, Iowa has beaten three straight MAC teams by an average margin of 37-points per game.
Iowa was 2-3 ATS as a single digit favorite in 2001.
Cal Poly plays at Kent State later this September.
The Dish: As a huge MAC fan I really want to pick Miami here, but Iowa has been pounding MAC teams of late and has a very good team. Miami surprised a lot people last week by running the ball so well at North Carolina. Miami entered that game believing they could win while they are entering this game looking for revenge from last year’s wipe out. As Coach Hoeppner told me during the MAC Media Preview Day in Detroit this past July, “Iowa TKO’d us pretty quick last time.” If Miami doesn’t get their best home crowd in school history, there is something wrong in Oxford. Miami has a real chance to win this game, but my crystal ball reads Hawkeyes by just over a touchdown.
The Line: Iowa by 5.5
Michigan 28 - Western Michigan 14
The Facts:
Michigan beat Western Michigan last year 38-21 and leads the series 3-0.
Since 1993, Michigan is 22-32 ATS as double-digit favorites.
Two of the past three MAC schools have covered the spread against Michigan since 2000.
Western Michigan is just 1-6 straight up against Big Ten teams since 1993, but 4-3 ATS.
The Dish: Michigan escaped last week with a 31-29 last second victory over Washington. Last year, Western Michigan caught the Wolverines just after a difficult road loss to the Huskies and UM beat on WMU for the relatively easy win. This year it’s a little different, UM won last week and travels to Notre Dame next week, so I see Michigan not playing as well. Also, this WMU is a little better than last year’s Bronco team and should compete quite well. Look for a decent game with Western losing, but playing UM closer than last year’s game.
The Line: Michigan by 22
Central Michigan 30 – Wyoming 21
The Facts:
Wyoming won the only previous meeting between these two schools, 31-10 in Laramie in 2000. Since that win, Wyoming is has gone 2-18.
Last week CMU beat Sam Houston State 34-10 while Wyoming lost to Tennessee 47-7.
Wyoming is 2-6 ATS as a single digit dog since 2000.
CMU has not opened a season with two straight home games since 1993.
CMU has not beaten a IA non-conference opponent since 1997.
The Dish: Coach DeBord told me this past summer how excited he was with this schedule of hosting their first two opponents and how he felt they could get a fast start to the season for once. DeBord has really improved this team’s speed and physical presence and this is not the same program that the Cowboys beat in 2000. In fact since that game, these two programs have gone in opposite directions with the ‘Chips going forward and Wyoming going backwards. If CMU continues to run the ball well and continues to tackle better as they did against SHS, Central Michigan may win this game by more than the margin I have listed here.
The Line: Central Michigan by 1.5
Missouri 41 – Ball State 16
The Facts:
This is Ball State’s first game this season while Missouri beat Illinois last weekend.
Ball State has not won a game in September since 1997. In fact, The Cardinals are 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS in their past 15 September contests.
Former Toledo boss Gary Pinkel, now at Missouri was 5-4-1 against Ball State as a coach at Toledo.
Pinkel opened last season with a home loss to Bowling Green from the MAC.
In Pinkel’s second year at Toledo, his team improved from 5-5-1 to 8-3. This is his second year at Missouri after going 4-7 last year.
The Dish: Gary Pinkel’s last game as a Rocket was a 51-17 thrashing of archrival Bowling Green in route to a 10-1 season. His first game then last year at Missouri was BG, and his Tigers lost 20-13 and he was heckled as he left the field. Pinkel has since changed a lot of minds in Columbia (MO) and this team is much better than last year’s team. Missouri beat the defending Big Ten champ Illinois last week in St. Louis and although Pinkel had a lot of trouble with Ball State when he was at Toledo, the Cardinals have opened every season since 1996 very poorly. This is a good BSU team, but I like Missouri to beat them pretty good as I expect the Cardinals to start off slowly again this season.
The Line: Missouri by 16
Toledo 31 – Eastern Michigan 16
The Facts:
Toledo beat I-AA Cal Poly last week 44-16; EMU lost at Michigan State 56-7.
Although Toledo leads the series 19-10, EMU has won three of the last nine games played.
EMU has covered the spread in four the last five games between these two schools, with an average line of Toledo -16.
Toledo is 6-1 both ATS and SU in their last seven road openers.
Toledo is 17-10 as an away favorite since 1998.
Eastern Michigan had the youngest IA football team in country last year.
The Dish: No team has given Toledo fits more than Eastern Michigan these past few years. When you consider how much more talented UT has been over EMU, the fact that the Eagles have won three of the last nine and nearly won two others is mind bottling. For some reason EMU rises up and plays Toledo well and I expect that to happen again even though the Rockets looked pretty good last week and EMU looked like EMU against Michigan State. Coach Woodruff told me this past July he was glad to play Toledo early this year rather than later considering how many new faces UT has, especially on defense. Toledo will win, but not my three touchdowns.
The Line: Toledo by 22
Maryland 36 – Akron 20
The Facts:
This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last week Maryland lost to Notre Dame 22-0 while Akron was hammered at Iowa 57-21.
Akron is 5-14 ATS as an away dog in their last 19 September away games.
Akron is 3-10 ATS in the second part of a two-game road trip.
Maryland was 7-0 SU and ATS last year at home.
The MAC won both games against ACC teams last weekend.
The Dish: I really thought that Akron would play Iowa better last week, but that wasn’t the case. Notre Dame shut out Maryland, and that was surprising for a team that went 10-2 last year and won the ACC. Now take into account that the MAC went 2-0 against the ACC last week and you can bet the ‘Terps will want to run it up on Zips a little more than they may have two weeks ago. Akron QB Charlie Frye played very well in spite of the catastrophes that took place against the Hawkeyes, so I’m sticking with my notion that Akron will make this a little closer than the odds makers think.
The Line: Maryland by 24
South Florida 35 – Northern Illinois 27
The Facts:
Series: NIU won the only meeting last year 20-17 at home. NIU was a 17-point favorite.
Last weekend NIU beat Wake Forest in overtime 42-41 while USF beat I-AA Florida Atlantic 51-10.
USF returns 8 starters on both sides of the ball from a team that went 8-3 in 2001 and was 11 points away from going 10-1.
USF has covered in five of their last seven games.
NIU is 9-3 ATS on grass in the last four years.
The Dish: South Florida is an up and coming program and in all honesty if they were in C-USA right now (they join in 2003), they would win that bush league outright. NIU escaped last week and beat the Bulls on a last second FG to open last season at home. There is a lot of confidence for the Huskies and they will play well, but the one thing I noticed against Wake Forest last week is how much faster the Demon Deacons were compared to NIU. USF is even faster than Wake, so I’ll take the home team in a game that features two talented but relatively unknown football programs.
The Line: South Florida by 6
Rutgers 31 – Buffalo 26
The Facts:
Both teams lost at home to I-AA programs last week. UB lost to Lehigh 37-26 while RU lost to Villanova 37-19.
Rutgers won last year at UB 31-15. UB lost at Rutgers in 2000 59-0.
Rutgers is just 6-12 at home ATS since 1993
The Dish: You can’t ballyhoo a funeral here people. These two teams may be the very worst in IA football this season. Buffalo will every chance to win this game since Rutgers is not good. Of course, Rutgers looks at this game in the same way. Rutgers has more speed and a little more experience, so give the nod in a close game to the Scarlet Knights.
The Line: Rutgers by 9
UCF 38 – Arizona State 27
The Facts:
UCF lost at Penn State 27-24 last weekend while ASU has played two games already; beating Eastern Washington 38-2 and losing to Nebraska 48-10.
UCF has never played a PAC-Ten team.
Sun Devils have won and covered in 5 of their last 6 OOC.
ASU has 10 of 14 home games in September since 1994.
UCF has covered 8 of their last 11 lined contests.
The Dish: UCF nearly pulled off a super come from behind win at Penn State last week. UCF had a dreadful 3rd quarter that killed them from winning a big OOC road game. That won’t be the case this week as only about 55,000 will be in attendance rather than 107,000, and ASU is not as good as PSU. Look for UCF to play with even more confidence and show that the 4th best team in Florida is better than the best team in Arizona. The Sun Devils will be looking past the Golden Knights and UCF’s talent is better at almost every position.
The Line: Arizona State by 4
Ohio 40 – Northeastern 14
The Facts:
Northeastern is a I-AA team from the Atlantic 10 Conference. Last week they beat Division II Lock Haven 48-0. The Huskies went 5-6 last year.
Ohio had six turnovers last week, including 5 INTs, is a loss 27-14 at Pitt.
Since Ohio’s Stadium renovation project completed last summer, the Bobcats 0-5 at home at Peden Stadium.
He last time Northeastern played a I-A team was 1999 and they lost at Boston College 33-22.
The Dish: When you consider that OU did not win one single home game last season after all of the beautiful upgrades and additions they did to Peden Stadium, that makes my head spin. Perhaps they needed a team like Northeastern to play in their first game last year rather than Iowa State? Northeastern is just what the doctor ordered for Coach Knorr’s Bobcats, a team that is much slower, smaller and with less depth. If Ohio can cut down on their turnovers (six last week at Pitt), they should win this game by even a bigger margin than what I have listed. In fact, they should have beaten Pitt last weekend.
The Line: None