10-28-2002, 11:03 PM
At the moment it appears a longshot that the BigTen will qualify a 7th team for the MCB. The best candidate at the moment is Purdue. They need to win 2 of final 3 games [Ohio State, at Mich St, Ind]. Other longshot teams are: Illinois [must win 3 of 4 vs at PSU, at Wisc, OSU, at Northwestern]; Michigan State [must win 3 of 4 vs at Michigan, at Indiana, Purdue, at PSU]; Indiana [must win 3 of 4 vs at Northwestern, MichSt, PSU, at Perdue]. Realistically Perdue has the only shot and the odds of their winning 2 of 3 are probably less than 50%.
If the Big Ten does not place a team, I believe that the slot will be filled by either the ACC or SEC. It appears very unlikely that either of those conferences will place more than 1 team in the combined 4 BCS bowls. That leaves 6 automatic bowl tie-ins for the ACC and 7 spots for the SEC. The ACC will likely finish with 7 bowl eligible teams. Probably the biggest longshot for their 7th team is Clemson [currently at 4-4]. However with 2 of their final 4 games being against Duke and North Carolina, their chances of getting to 6 wins are pretty good. As for the SEC, even though Kentucky and Alabama are disqualified from bowl participation, the conference is still likely to finish with 8 teams bowl eligible. Right now the probable longest shot to make the 8th team is Arkansas [at 4-3]. Of their remaining 5 games, two of them are against Troy State and La Lafayette.
While it is true that neither the ACC or SEC could send a 6-6 team to the Motor City Bowl, there is a way to get around it. If it would mean getting another conference team into a bowl game, you can bet that either of those conferences would lobby hard to get one of their bottom tier bowls to take a 6-6 team; thus leaving a 7-5 team on the table to be picked up by the MCB. With all of the BCS money that those conferences rake in, both the ACC and SEC could easily make financial arrangements to support any repositioning of their bottom bowl eligible teams in order to maximize their number of bowl teams. For example the ACC agreed to reimburse Wake Forest all of their travel expenses a few years ago [I believe it was 1999, but I may be off a year or two] in order to encourage them to accept a bowl bid to Hawaii; since Wake indicated that they could not afford to take a substantial loss to play in that bowl. Likewise the SEC helped Ole Miss out in 1997 by having the conference pay for a few thousand tickets, to help the school out with their ticket requirements for the MCB.
The "fly in the ointment" for one those possible scenarios could be if any other non-BCS conferences [i.e. Conf.USA] fail to make their full complement of bowl tie-ins. In that case the MCB may have to compete with another site for that 7-5 BCS school. Given a choice between Detroit in winter or another bowl site, I would expect a "southern" team from the ACC or SEC to prefer the other site [unless of course the other choice is Boise, Idaho].
If the Big Ten does not place a team, I believe that the slot will be filled by either the ACC or SEC. It appears very unlikely that either of those conferences will place more than 1 team in the combined 4 BCS bowls. That leaves 6 automatic bowl tie-ins for the ACC and 7 spots for the SEC. The ACC will likely finish with 7 bowl eligible teams. Probably the biggest longshot for their 7th team is Clemson [currently at 4-4]. However with 2 of their final 4 games being against Duke and North Carolina, their chances of getting to 6 wins are pretty good. As for the SEC, even though Kentucky and Alabama are disqualified from bowl participation, the conference is still likely to finish with 8 teams bowl eligible. Right now the probable longest shot to make the 8th team is Arkansas [at 4-3]. Of their remaining 5 games, two of them are against Troy State and La Lafayette.
While it is true that neither the ACC or SEC could send a 6-6 team to the Motor City Bowl, there is a way to get around it. If it would mean getting another conference team into a bowl game, you can bet that either of those conferences would lobby hard to get one of their bottom tier bowls to take a 6-6 team; thus leaving a 7-5 team on the table to be picked up by the MCB. With all of the BCS money that those conferences rake in, both the ACC and SEC could easily make financial arrangements to support any repositioning of their bottom bowl eligible teams in order to maximize their number of bowl teams. For example the ACC agreed to reimburse Wake Forest all of their travel expenses a few years ago [I believe it was 1999, but I may be off a year or two] in order to encourage them to accept a bowl bid to Hawaii; since Wake indicated that they could not afford to take a substantial loss to play in that bowl. Likewise the SEC helped Ole Miss out in 1997 by having the conference pay for a few thousand tickets, to help the school out with their ticket requirements for the MCB.
The "fly in the ointment" for one those possible scenarios could be if any other non-BCS conferences [i.e. Conf.USA] fail to make their full complement of bowl tie-ins. In that case the MCB may have to compete with another site for that 7-5 BCS school. Given a choice between Detroit in winter or another bowl site, I would expect a "southern" team from the ACC or SEC to prefer the other site [unless of course the other choice is Boise, Idaho].
