11-08-2002, 12:46 PM
Just listing their picks for the non-BCS bowls and the possible ones that get left open:
San Francisco (1 non-BCS): BC (BigEast 5) Wake Forest (MWC 3/4)
Liberty (2): TCU (C-USA champ) ColSt (MWC champ)
H-Bowl (1): Boise State (WAC 1/2/3) Oklahoma State (Big12 No. 8)
SVCB (1): OregSt (Pac-10 6) Mississippi (WAC 1/2/3)
Seattle (1): Clemson (ACC 6) Miami(OH) (MWC 3/4)
Houston (1): Texas Tech (Big 12 No 5) Southern Miss (C-USA)
MotorCity (1): BGSU (MAC 1/2) USF (Big Ten No. 7)
Las Vegas (1): Air Force (MWC No. 2) UCLA (Pac-10 No. 5)
Hawaii (2): Hawaii (WAC 1/2/3) UAB (C-USA 4/5)
GMAC (2): Marshall (MAC 1/2) Louisville (C-USA 2)
NewOrleans (2): NMSU (SBC champ) Tulane (C-USA 4/5)
15 non-BCS bowl slots by contract (3 left unfilled - MWC #3 #4 and WAC #3)
1 BCS slot left unfilled (MotorCity by Big11)
===================================================
14 by selection (assumes 2 MWC vacancies filled by ACC and MAC, and WAC vacancy filled by SEC, MCB vacancy filled by independent)
Observations:
Since NIU is left out and will at least win 7 games (since EMU is still on the schedule and both Toledo and BGSU have to play at NIU) they must expect all replacements to be at least 7-5. No smack at Toledo but they have to play NIU away and still have to play BGSU so they may not get to 7-5.
Mississippi (SEC extra) is 5-4, so they have to 2 of the last 3 to be eligible to fill an at-large spot over NIU. They have Georgia and LSU on the road before they get to play MissSt at home. Anyone think they can beat LSU or Georgia? I don't. They'll get to 6 wins easy, but improving that to 7-5 with that remianing schedule looks very unlikely.
WakeForest (ACC extra) woould need to win both of theri remaining games - one against Navy (should be an easy win) and the other against 7-2 Maryland at Maryland. Agsin, I think they expect too much from mediocre BCS teams down the stretch.
The MWC will get a 3rd bowl team eligible - even if it means paying oiff some refs to make sure BYU, NewMex or UNLV wins enough games for at least one more bowl-eligible team (they need only 6 wisn - unless they play 13 games because they are already tied to the bowl). BYU has the best chance since they play only one team that isn't already bowl ineligible down the stretch.
It also assumes that the Big12 has 9 eligibles teams (2 BCS invites) by counting on OklaSt to be eligible. They could be 6-6, but this still counts on the Big12 getting the extra BCS bid (Oklahoma and Texas) and not the Big11 (Iowa and OhioSt). I'm more in line with the thought that the Big11 gets 2 bids and the MusicCity also goes unfilled by the BCS.
<!--EDIT|nert|Nov 8 2002, 05:54 PM-->
San Francisco (1 non-BCS): BC (BigEast 5) Wake Forest (MWC 3/4)
Liberty (2): TCU (C-USA champ) ColSt (MWC champ)
H-Bowl (1): Boise State (WAC 1/2/3) Oklahoma State (Big12 No. 8)
SVCB (1): OregSt (Pac-10 6) Mississippi (WAC 1/2/3)
Seattle (1): Clemson (ACC 6) Miami(OH) (MWC 3/4)
Houston (1): Texas Tech (Big 12 No 5) Southern Miss (C-USA)
MotorCity (1): BGSU (MAC 1/2) USF (Big Ten No. 7)
Las Vegas (1): Air Force (MWC No. 2) UCLA (Pac-10 No. 5)
Hawaii (2): Hawaii (WAC 1/2/3) UAB (C-USA 4/5)
GMAC (2): Marshall (MAC 1/2) Louisville (C-USA 2)
NewOrleans (2): NMSU (SBC champ) Tulane (C-USA 4/5)
15 non-BCS bowl slots by contract (3 left unfilled - MWC #3 #4 and WAC #3)
1 BCS slot left unfilled (MotorCity by Big11)
===================================================
14 by selection (assumes 2 MWC vacancies filled by ACC and MAC, and WAC vacancy filled by SEC, MCB vacancy filled by independent)
Observations:
Since NIU is left out and will at least win 7 games (since EMU is still on the schedule and both Toledo and BGSU have to play at NIU) they must expect all replacements to be at least 7-5. No smack at Toledo but they have to play NIU away and still have to play BGSU so they may not get to 7-5.
Mississippi (SEC extra) is 5-4, so they have to 2 of the last 3 to be eligible to fill an at-large spot over NIU. They have Georgia and LSU on the road before they get to play MissSt at home. Anyone think they can beat LSU or Georgia? I don't. They'll get to 6 wins easy, but improving that to 7-5 with that remianing schedule looks very unlikely.
WakeForest (ACC extra) woould need to win both of theri remaining games - one against Navy (should be an easy win) and the other against 7-2 Maryland at Maryland. Agsin, I think they expect too much from mediocre BCS teams down the stretch.
The MWC will get a 3rd bowl team eligible - even if it means paying oiff some refs to make sure BYU, NewMex or UNLV wins enough games for at least one more bowl-eligible team (they need only 6 wisn - unless they play 13 games because they are already tied to the bowl). BYU has the best chance since they play only one team that isn't already bowl ineligible down the stretch.
It also assumes that the Big12 has 9 eligibles teams (2 BCS invites) by counting on OklaSt to be eligible. They could be 6-6, but this still counts on the Big12 getting the extra BCS bid (Oklahoma and Texas) and not the Big11 (Iowa and OhioSt). I'm more in line with the thought that the Big11 gets 2 bids and the MusicCity also goes unfilled by the BCS.
<!--EDIT|nert|Nov 8 2002, 05:54 PM-->