CSNbbs

Finally, the numbers start falling into place - and we don't have to count so much on "if everything goes as expected" to fill out a bowl sheet (not particulars for who goes where - but who does and who does not have enough teams to fill their commitments).

BCS (We always start with the BCS)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ACC: 6 bowls - 6 bowl eligible, 0 >.500, 1=.500, 0<.500, 2 out
BigEast: 5 bowls - 4 bowl eligible, 1>.500, 0=.500, 1<.500, 2 out
Big11: 7 bowls - 5 bowl eligible, 1 >.500, 0=.500, 3<.500, 2 out
Big12: 8 bowls - 8 bowl eligible, 0=>.500, 0=.500, 2<.500, 2 out
PAC10: 6 bowls - 6 bowl eligible, 0>.500, 1=.500, 0<.500, 3 out
SEC: 7 bowls - 5 bowl eligible, 1 >.500, 2=.500, 1<.500, 3 out
NDame: 1 bowl eligible
BCS - 2 extra bids
===================================================
Total - 41 bowl slots, 35 bowl eligible, 3>.500, 4=.500, 7<.500, 14 out

So far, the BCS is 6 short - so let's see how likely they are to get additional teams eligible

The +.500 teams: (each must win 1 of their 2 or 3 remaining games to be eligible)
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- BC (5-4) with Syracuse, @Temple and Rutgers left to play
- Wisconsin (6-5) with @Michigan and Minnesota to play
- Tennessee (5-4) with @MissSt, @Vandy and Kentucky to play

Tenn and BC are fine (winnable games left on the schedule), Wisconsin is iffy - though both Michigan and Minnesota are beatable teams (thanks eCK for the 13 game reminder)

the .500 teams: (each must win 1 of their 2 remaining games to be eligible)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WakeForest (5-5) with Navy and @Maryland to play
Washington (5-5) with @Oregon and @WashSt to play
SoCarol (5-5) with @Florida and @Clemson to play
Mississippi (5-5) with @LSU and @MissSt to play

WakeForest will probably pick up their last needed win against Navy, and Mississippi should beat MissSt (although it is AT MissSt - so it's no sure thing). Washington and SoCarol are probably long shots given their remaining schedules (all bowl eligible opponents and all on the road). None of these are likley to be 7-5 - so they would be unable to fill another conference's unfilled slots.

<.500 teams (each must win all their remaining games to be eligble - except OklaSt which must win 2 of their last 3):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Syracuse (4-6) with @BC and Miami to play
Purdue (4-6) with @MichSt and Indiana to play
MichSt (4-6) with Purdue and @PennSt to play
Illinois (4-6) with OhioSt and @NW'tern to play
OklaSt (4-5) with @Kansas, Baylor and Oklahoma to play
Missouri (4-6) with @TexasA&M and KState to play
MissSt (3-6) with Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi to play

most are really long shots - excpet OklaSt (50/50) and the winner of MichSt/Purdue (especially if it's Purdue).

At best, the BCS gets 42 eligibles (several at 6-6). Even if they got to 6-6, WakeForest, OklaSt, Mississippi or SoCarolina, and Washington would be unable to go bowling since their conferences' bowls would be filled and they would not be eligible to take open slots left by other conferences (6-6 rule). Their one shot would be if their conference got a second BCS invite - so they could move up the ladder.

The extra BCS invites:
=====================================================
- ACC: not likely for any team to be an at-large BCS invite
- BigEast: Miami would get a BCS at-large if they didn't win the BigEast (no one else would)
- Big11: Iowa has a shot at an at-large invite (a late season loss by OhioSt would probably drop them out of any BCS invite - giving the Rose slot to Iowa)
- Big12: Texas has a shot at at-large invites (Oklahoma would be out if they lost the Big12 championship game)
- PAC10: not likely that anyone would get an at-large invite (WashSt would not get it if they lost the PAC10)
- SEC: not likely that anyone would get an at-large invite (Georgia would not get it if they lost the SEC championship game)
- NDame: Likely BCS at-large invite

Assuming NDame gets one invite, the other is taken by either (1) the Big11, (2) the Big12 or (3) the BigEast (probably in that order of liklihood):
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- A Big11 at-large invite would leave the MotorCity open (definately) as well as the MusicCity (most likely)
- A Big12 at large invite changes who is in each of their bowls but creates no additional openings
- A BigEast at-large invite would leave the SanFran game open

Left open by BCS:
- MotorCity
- either the MusicCity or the SanFran Bowl

Non-BCS in next post (getting too long already)



<!--EDIT|nert|Nov 10 2002, 11:25 PM-->

The Non-BCS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C-USA: 5 bowls - 3 bowl eligible, 1 >.500, 0=.500, 4<.500, 2 out
MAC: 2 bowls - 5 bowl eligible, 0>.500, 0=.500, 4<.500, 5 out
MWC: 4 bowls - 2 bowl eligible, 0 >.500, 2=.500, 1<.500, 3 out
WAC: 3 bowls - 2 bowl eligible, 0=>.500, 2=.500, 2<.500, 4 out
SBC: 1 bowl - 1 bowl eligible, 0>.500, 1=.500, 0<.500, 5 out
indy5: 0 bowls - 1 bowl eligible, 0 >.500, 0=.500, 1<.500, 3 out
===================================================
Total - 15 bowl slots, 14 bowl eligible, 1>.500, 5=.500, 14<.500, 22 out

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The +.500 team:
L'ville (5-4) must win 1 of @SoMiss, UAB and @Houston
likely will be eligible (major crash if they aren't)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
=.500 teams:
BYU (5-5) with NewMex and @Utah to play
NewMex (5-5) with @BYU, @ColSt and Wyoming to play (must win 2 of 3)
Nevada (5-5) with @FresnoSt and BoiseSt to play
FresnoSt (5-5) with Nevada, @SJSU and @LaTech left (must win 2 of 3)
NorthTex (5-5) with NMSU and @MTSU to play
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<.500:
Those that must win all but 1 left on schedule:
UAB (4-5) with ECU, @L'ville and @Cinci left
Cinci (4-5) with Houston, @Hawaii, UAB and @ECU left
ECU (3-5) with @UAB, TCU, @SoMiss and Cinci left
Houston (4-5) with @Cinci, USF and L'ville left
UCF (4-5) with KentSt, @Miami(OH) and Ohio left
BallSt (4-5) with @CMU, Buffalo and @Marshall left


Those that must win all their remaining games:
Ohio (4-6) with Marshall and @UCF left
CMU (4-6) with BallSt and WMU left
UNLV (4-6) with AirForce and @ColSt left
LaTech (3-6)with @BoiseSt, UTEP and FresnoSt left
SJSU (5-6) with @Tulsa and FresnoSt left
UConn (4-6) with @Navy and @IowaSt left

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C-USA is in trouble - L'ville will get eligible - but a 5th bowl eligible team would need to have almost everything fall right for them. The question is which do they leave open - Hawaii or NewOrleans?

The MAC obviously has 3 extra teams now - but a 4th extra (that could fill in for an open slot) will require BallSt or UCF to run the rest of their schedule.

The MWC has a shot to cover if NewMex beats BYU this week - if not, NewMex is in real trouble - needing to beat both @ColSt and Wyoming (though BYU would be in). UNLV is a long shot anyway with just league leaders AirForce and ColSt left on the schedule and needing to beat both of them.

The WAC will fill it's last bowl with whoever wins the Nevada @FresnoSt game. A slight chance of getting an extra at 7-5 exists (if Nevada wins out, and FresnoSt wins all but the Nevada game - leaving them both at 7-5).

The SBC could have an extra eligible if UNT wins out (takes the conference bowl) and second place NMSU loses to UNT and then wins their last game - leaving them 7-5 as well.

The independents give us only USF - UConn's remaining schedule is too tough for them to sweep.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Open Bowls:
- Motor City
- Music City (I'm assuming an OhioSt-Miami natinal championship game)
- NewOrleans (assuming C-USA chooses to fill the Hawaii instead of the NewOrleans Bowl)

Available 7-5 or better teams:
2 of BGSU, Toledo, NoIll (whover does not get the MotorCity Bowl)
1 of Miami(OH) or Marshall (is Marshall to GMAC confirmed?)
USF
NMSU (long shot)
Nevada (long shot)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- I'll assume C-USA goes to bat for USF to get the open C-USA slot in the NewOrleans Bowl or in Hawaii
- Nevada or NMSU gets the MotorCity slot (no one else left that isn't in the MAC). If neither gets 7-5 eligible, Motor City has to push hard for USF (sorry eCK)
- Music City takes BGSU (record and ranking), Miami(OH)(proximity) or NoIll (swap with MotorCity if NoIll wins the MAC, sending BGSU to Detroit)
- If SanFran opens up (on either side - BigEast or MWC) Nevada becomes the odds on favorite to fill it (proximity) - but barring them being eligible, it becomes a BGSU or Toledo invite



<!--EDIT|nert|Nov 10 2002, 11:46 PM-->

Great stuff (as usual), Nert, although I'm still a bit dizzy from trying to absorb all that info (BTW, how long did it take you to compose that post anyway??).

BG's loss has no doubt really scared the MCB 'cause they may really, really need a local MAC draw if we get stuck with USF.........obviously having Purdue would be great (Purdue is probably the best 4-6 team in the country, and I think they'll make it to 6-6), but even if they're bowl eligible if Iowa and OSU are in the BCS the B10 won't fill the MCB slot......as you correctly state if Wisconsin "gags" on it (which I'd say is entirely possible), then the Music City opens which is good for the MAC as we may have the best options left for them.

BG's game with USF is a must for both BG (to help them either grab an at large bid or still end up in the MCB if the MAC East winner beats NIU in the MACC) and the conference.

So, Nert, if you were a betting man, what would you say right now? WIll the MAC have 2, 3 or 4 teams bowling? I guess that'll be easier to answer after about one more week, eh? :D

Nert, CFN already has an updated bowl projection list out, and state what has been on my mind as a possibility (and not really a good one) for the MCB.

CFN projects NIU vs. So. Miss in the GMAC, and the winner of Miami/Marshall vs. either Purdue (if the B10 has a team for us) or BG in the MCB. The comment made was that if the B10 has no team for the MAC the preference would be for either Marshall or Miami (neither of which has played BG this year) vs. whateve else is left out there. (which ain't much). Also, this projection either seems to have forgotten that if Miami beats Marshall then we must beat UCF to be assured of a MAC East title, or else they're assuming NIU wins the MACC and thus the MCB can take whoever they want. (but in that case wouldn't the GMAC still take Marshall??) Oh well......

The Boise Bowl considered this last year when they were stuck with La. Tech hosting for the WAC, but they didn't do it. To be honest, financially speaking (although embarrassing I guess), it would make a heck of a lot mores sense than bring USF up to Detroit. They'd bring about 2,000 fans, and what MAC fans want to see USF? Answer: Not many.

[quote="exCincy Kid"]
So, Nert, if you were a betting man, what would you say right now?

Thanks, Nert, but after all the past MAC bowl disappointments (Miami and UT left home with a 10-1 mark), I'll hold off on my optimism.

I tend to think that C-USA will cover its bowl slots, and that our shot at a 3rd bowl is about 75% with a 25% chance of the 4th bowl. Also, it wouldn't hurt if BG beats USF this week.

Seems as if everyone has written off Toledo. If UT wins its last three, they play in the MACC. The young Rocket D is getting better every week, and dont be suprised if they are playing in December.

Quote:The young Rocket D is getting better every week

One week in row since the Miami game? :D

Or were you counting the 2 weeks after the Pitt game?

Mixon and Merriweather are two of the best RB's in the conference. Toledo shut them down. Miami is a very good team and Toledo didn't play very well that night. Rockytop's comments are accurate. The Rocket D is improving on a weekly basis.

Which is it?
Did they show improvement against Miami, playing their best to that date, that being what improvement is, or did they, to quote you, not play very well.
I think they backslid that week, imo--regressed a bit from the previous two weeks. I think they are improved but it's been up and down, not steady week after week.
:D
But hey, I wasn't there...



<!--EDIT|axeme|Nov 11 2002, 11:19 AM-->

No, you weren't there. And you haven't been there since the first game, either. We couldn't stop the run to save our lives at the beginning of the season. Our run D has improved by leaps and bounds. The Miami game wasn't what we'd hoped for in a lot of ways, but a lot of those yards don't belong on the D's shoulders.

In the FWIW category, CBS Sportsline has updated their bowl picks today, and they're sticking with only 2 MAC teams bowling as follows:

* BG vs. So. Miss in GMAC
* NIU vs. Oklahoma State in the MCB

They must be assuming that NIU wins out, and that the GMAC picks BG over the MAC East loser of the MACC.

They also continue to project that both Wisconsin and Purdue get bowl eligible, but with two B10 teams in the BCS the MCB is left vacant by the B10. I'd say it's better than 50/50 than Wisconsin does not get bowl eligible, either.

They also optimistically project that the Mountain West and C-USA will fill out all its bowl commitments.........in the case of the MWC I'd say that such a possibility (which would mean both New Mexico and BYU get bowl eligible) is 50/50, whereas C-USA will likely cover somehow.

Despite what CBS sez here, I'd still say that 3 MAC teams bowling is a better probability than 2.

It'd be real interesting to see what the bowls do if NIU wins the MAC - does BG get a bid over Marshall? Does a third team actually get a bid?

What do you guys think of the CFN projection of a possible MAC game in the MCB b/w BG and Miami or Marshall? That might be the best scenario for the MCB reps, though I'm not sure it would be great for the MAC - at least it would be a matchup we didn't have during the season.

Sorry to screw all this up for you guys, but since you won't let us in, we'll just have to force our way in....

rockytop Wrote:Seems as if everyone has written off Toledo. &nbsp;If UT wins its last three, they play in the MACC. &nbsp;The young Rocket D is getting better every week, and dont be suprised if they are playing in December.

Good point Rockytop...UT still controls their own destiny. Seems with BG, Marshall, Miami and NIU getting the majority of coverage, the Rockets are poising themselves for a definite run.

It won't be easy with road games the next 2 weeks at WMU and NIU and that finale against BG, but it isn't impossible.

Should make for a very interesting last few weeks...at any rate, if we can get at least 3 bowl bids, I'd be a happy camper.

GO FALCONS!! BEAT USF!!!!

Oddball Wrote:We couldn't stop the run to save our lives at the beginning of the season. Our run D has improved by leaps and bounds. The Miami game wasn't what we'd hoped for in a lot of ways, but a lot of those yards don't belong on the D's shoulders.

You are right! I haven't been there ever and if my luck holds out that will continue.

So you are talking about RUN defense! I get it. Seemed as if the original post was simply referring to defense in general. Hey, it's your hair to split. So the RUN defense has improved steadily, week-after-week, and the Miami game was them at their best, until of course, this previous week, when they were better, because they improve week-after-week. So it's the PASS defense that has been erratic.

I get it!

:D

Our LBs are very good and our corners are a senior and a junior. Considering that we graduated almost our entire starting line, what else would I be talking about?

Maybe it might work for you better this way.

Start of season <-------------------------------> Now

See where it says "Start of season"? And, then where it says "Now". Well, our young defense is much better "Now" than it was at "Start of the season".

I hope that helps.

That, even with an education at a MAC school that is not Miami, is clear enough.
The original post said (falsely, apparently since you have corrected him) the "defense is getting better every week", but we can pass that buck to rockytop and besides I 've got to run because as interesting as this is, I want to count the grains of sand in my daughter's sandbox.

Please keep us up to date on your progress.

...1125, 1126,1127 damn, now you've interrupted me! :mad:



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