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Well, Bracket Buster Saturday has finally arrived. The records and matchups aren't quite as good as ESPN wanted, but the network has been advertising today for the past several weeks.

Here's my opinion on the significance of the games to the MAC and their teams.

Hawaii at KENT STATE: This is a MUST WIN for Kent if they want any chance for an at-large bid. It's so obvious, I don't need to elaborate any further.

BALL STATE at Western Kentucky: Just think what a match-up this would have been if Smith and Marcus weren't injured. If Ball State can beat this quality team, it could help the Cards toward an NIT bid. After losing to CMU by two points a few days ago, CMU fans hope for perceptual purposes BSU plays a competitive game against the Hilltoppers.

Illinois State at MARSHALL: This is a must win for Herd pride. ISU has lost to the three other MAC teams they played this year.

BOWLING GREEN at Illinois-Chicago: UIC is clearly the better team. If BGSU can win, it would be a feather in their cap.

My Prediction? Not going out on a limb here--- 2-2, with a slight possibility of 3-1.

In other games... There's a little tilt in DeKalb today...

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS: In terms of a MAC-West championship, this game means more to the Huskies due to the fact they will have a return visit to CMU. In terms of possible at-large pick, the Chippewas have a better chance at that, but only if they can continue to win. Gawd I wish this game was on TV!!!

WESTERN MICHIGAN at OHIO: The Broncos' miniscule at-large chances continue to hinge on their winning ways. Ohio U. is just trying to find the chemistry to make a charge in the MAC tourney.

Virginia at OHIO (Wednesday): The Bobcats have smartly scheduled their own Bracket Buster game for the second year in a row. Last spring they went to Chapel Hill and smacked around North Carolina. It's just too bad Ohio U. hasn't had the record to be considered for an an-large berth. While the Bobcats are out of the running again, their tilt against the Cavaliers is definitely a Bracket Buster. Beat the Cavaliers and UVa's bubble will be burst, keeping the hopes of KSU, CMU, and WMU alive (assuming they continue winning).

There it is. Let the games begin!
Here's the ESPN Bracketology breakdown onth eimportance of today's games in that event.

MAC games in bold
Quote:Having said that, there are some intriguing individual contests coming up on Saturday. Let's look at each from the intended perspective; namely, the potential impact on the respective team's NCAA at-large chances:

Tulsa (WAC) at Gonzaga (WCC)
ESPN, midnight ET
* Current at-large chances (according to Bracketology Insider):
Tulsa, 0%
Gonzaga, 40%
* Who needs it more?
Neither team has really lived up to expectations, especially Tulsa. So the Golden Hurricane needs this game desperately.
* Who's going to win?
Tulsa hasn't won a meaningful road game since the WAC schedule began. Got to go with the Zags.
* Will it matter?
Gonzaga could certainly solidify its at-large chances. Tulsa probably can't do enough to save theirs.


Fresno State (WAC) at Creighton (MVC)
ESPN2, noon ET
* Current at-large chances:
Fresno State, 35%
Creighton, 40%
* Who needs it more?
Fresno State has no at-large profile of note, other than playing in a traditional multi-bid league.
* Who's going to win?
Creighton, because they're better.
* Will it matter?
The Bluejays will avoid falling another seed line with a victory.


Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon) at Southern Illinois (MVC)
ESPN2, 3 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
UW Milwaukee, 10%
Southern Illinois, 20%

* Who needs it more?
That's a toss up, as both teams have realistic NCAA hopes at this point.
* Who's going to win?
The Salukis, who have more experience in big games and who generally face better competition.
* Will it matter?
Yes, the loser can pretty much forget about an at-large bid.


Hawaii (WAC) at Kent State (MAC)
ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
Hawaii, 0%
Kent State, 30%
* Who needs it more?
You'd think Hawaii, but I'm not buying the Rainbows' at-large chances at all. All of which places Kent, the "last team out" in this week's NCAA projections, squarely on the hot seat.
* Who's going to win?
Both teams have NCAA Tournament talent, but one can't win on the road. Kent in a walkover.
* Will it matter?
Only if Kent State loses.



Detroit (Horizon) at UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
ESPNPlus, 11 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
Detroit: 0%
UC Santa Barbara: 5%
* Who needs it more?
UC Santa Barbara, because at least the Gauchos have a slim chance at an at-large bid.
* Who's going to win? I'll take the home team (UCSB), but I wouldn't spend a lot of time analyzing the matchup.
* Will it matter? Not in the slightest. Both of these teams are probably a reach to make the NIT field.

Bowling Green (MAC) at Illinois-Chicago (Horizon)
ESPN2, 5 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
Bowling Green, 0%
Illinois-Chicago, 0%
* Who needs it more?
No one. The wrong teams from each league are participating.
* Who's going to win?
I have no idea.
* Will it matter?
Only to UIC's NIT chances.


Ball State (MAC) at Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
ESPNPlus, 4 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
Ball State, 0%
Western Kentucky, 5%
* Who needs it more?
What was a marquee pairing in October finds only WKU alive, and barely, in the at-large pool.
* Who's going to win?
Go with the Hilltoppers, who seem to have hit their stride.
* Will it matter?
Probably not, as WKU's real hurdle to the NCAAs is Louisiana-Lafayette.


Illinois State (MVC) at Marshall (MAC)
ESPNPlus, 2 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
Illinois State, 0%
Marshall, 0%
* Who needs it more?
Yuk.
* Who's going to win?
Double yuk.
* Will it matter? Triple yuk.


Northern Iowa (MVC) at Louisiana Tech (WAC)
ESPNPlus, 1 p.m. ET
* Current at-large chances:
Northern Iowa, 0%
Louisiana Tech, 0%
* Who needs it more?
LaTech by default.
* Who's going to win?
Same as above.
* Will it matter?
As it turns out, the Bulldogs may have been better off with a non-DI opponent in this spot.

Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He may be reached at bracketology@comcast.net.  

:wave:
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