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ESPN says that Louisville is a lock to the Big East if and when Miami, BC, and Syracuse leave for the ACC.

They go on to say that 2 other schools will be chosen between Cincinnati, South Florida, Central Florida, and East Carolina.

<a href='http://espn.go.com/ncaa/news/2003/0611/1566706.html' target='_blank'>http://espn.go.com/ncaa/news/2003/0611/1566706.html</a>


"Louisville wants out of Conference USA if the Big East is looking to expand. The Big East will be desperate to add the Cardinals if all three schools leave. The consensus backup plan by the Big East is the Dave Gavitt/Mike Tranghese confederation of two eight-team divisions under a Big East umbrella.

Under that plan, the five remaining football members -- Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers and Virginia Tech -- would add three football-playing schools. Louisville would be the lock. Then the five would choose two among a list of four schools -- East Carolina (CUSA), Cincinnati (CUSA), South Florida (CUSA) and Central Florida (MAC in football/Atlantic Sun in hoops). Talk about Temple (outgoing Big East member in football, A-10 in basketball), Memphis (CUSA), Army (CUSA in football/Patriot League in hoops), Navy (independent in football/Patriot League in hoops) and Marshall (MAC) has cooled.

The basketball remaining members -- Providence, Georgetown, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova and Notre Dame -- would add two schools. The likely consensus is Marquette of Conference USA and Xavier out of the Atlantic 10. The Atlantic 10 has a penalty in the "hundreds of thousands of dollars," according to the source, with a June 30 withdrawal deadline for the following season.
"
I have to admit, I'm a bit surprised that talk about Marshall has cooled, but I can understand how they might be considered behind the 4 top candidates. (Here's hoping they bolt to CUSA and take Thunder et al with them 04-cheers)

Temple blew their chance, even though they aren't the worst in the Big East. Too bad, b/c a couple of wins here or there might have made a difference. Still other programs (N'western, KSU, Ore St) have demonstrated long term competitiveness and Temple has a very fertile recruiting ground.

Nevertheless, if the MAC loses UCF in fball, I'd like to hope they'd try to get Temple to keep the conference at an even number. I still think Temple has potential, and could do alot for the MAC.
Basically you have 2 slots in the Big East, with 2 schools competing for each respective slot.


Florida Slot:

Central Florida
South Florida


Geographic Slot:

East Carolina
Cinncinati

I'm going to go with UCF and East Carolina. USF and Cinncinati are in pro-sports towns which are a negative. East Carolina is remote, but they've been very successful in the past winning the peach bowl in 1992. UC has never won 10 games in a Football season before; there is a reason for this. Also, bringing Xavier into the league in basketball would be at odds market-wise with UC.

KC
I know this runs contra to alot of other people's feelings, but I'd hate to lose either Marshall or UCF. I think both teams raise the level of competition in the league. I don't want a league like the Sun Belt where one team is the only "power". There are five or six teams that get nominal respect nationally in the MAC right now. If we lose one or two of those teams it reduces the level of competition in the league, and the level of respect for the remaining members. Just my opinion.
I agree with Kit-Cat on the slots and that UCF and East Carolina are the most likely, if this still all happens.

I also agree with UTLAW that I would not want to lose UCF and Marshall because of the competitiveness in football. Although I will not shed a tear if Marshall did leave.

I think the MAC really wants to keep UCF at least for a few more years. I think the whole UCF/MAC thing was not meant to last, but I think that the MAC needs UCF for a few more years to help build up momentum and recognition for the conference.

As for Marshall, I don't see them going to C-USA without Louisville. C-USA is hurting. Rumors are that Army is going to leave for independent status. If Louisville and East Carolina leave, Marshall would be a heck of a lot better off with staying in the MAC. Even without UCF in the MAC.
Kit-Cat Wrote:Basically you have 2 slots in the Big East, with 2 schools competing for each respective slot.


Florida Slot:

Central Florida
South Florida


Geographic Slot:

East Carolina
Cinncinati

I'm going to go with UCF and East Carolina. USF and Cinncinati are in pro-sports towns which are a negative. East Carolina is remote, but they've been very successful in the past winning the peach bowl in 1992. UC has never won 10 games in a Football season before; there is a reason for this. Also, bringing Xavier into the league in basketball would be at odds market-wise with UC.

KC
It's not that obvious to me. Frankly having a UCF/USF rivalry can mean alot to the league. It should be an interesting and well attended game. And having a double presence in Fla may assure good media coverage.

ECU does not fit w/ the Big East IMO, especially w/ academics. I think they bring a stigma of "low class" with them. That's not meant to be an insult, that's just perception. Whereas the Fla schools are unknowns in that regard or UCF has a good reputation in Technology (electro-optics).

Cincy is a bit of a wild card. They have a big city market, potentially a populated state w/ football roots and Cincy is a bball bedrock. The Xavier connection shouldn't be a drawback as the rivalry would again garner media attention and could be played up as the premier rivalry between the Big East's two confederations. But in reality Cincy is not a great fball team, and won't help much w/ SOS ratings.
I don't see South Florida coming up with the money to move to the Big East. They currently owe C-USA $2 Million for entering the league. They would also owe $500,000 for as a leaving fee which puts it to $2.5 Mill. Add to that the money they would need to come up with as an entrance fee to the Big East and I just don't think they could afford it, if they would even get invited.
My .02 on the pecking order for potential members of the leftover BigEast...

1. Louisville..no brainer.
2. Cincinnati..Solid football and basketball programs. Good media market. Good facilities. BE BBall only members will push for the Bearcats.
3. USF or UCF..I imagine the new BE will want a Florida presence. Really not much to indifferentiate these two schools. USF prolly brings more related to basketball, but really only marginally. I don't think the BE will go for both schools as the potential 'second' Florida school will add little that the first choice doesn't already bring and a second FLA school doubles travel costs for all northern members.
4. East Carolina..One of the better football programs available. Good football facilities. Provides a presence in the Carolinas which will be necessary to appeal to some of those media markets.
5. Marshall..on the field the best available football program. Good geographic fit. Good facilities for both football and basketball. Issues with NCAA sanctions, academics and financials.
6. Temple..media market, good basketball program. Obviously issues w/ football, facilities and support.
7. USF or UCF..IF the BE expands this far a second Florida school becomes more likely. Would provide add'l coverage in Florida and would provide more 'growth' opportunities than most other candidates.
8. Memphis..Good media market, good facilities, good basketball history. I'm sure the Tigers will be high on the list of the BBall only members. They don't bring much in the way of football and are a stretch from a geographic standpoint...TN is SEC country.

Navy and Army are also possibilities, but that depends in great part to how a new BE would be structured. If there is a need for football only schools, these academies would be high on the list. If the structure is all-sports memberships, they obviously fall further down the list.
Ho-Hum...

I'd really be surprised to see anything happen at this point...

You may all continue now...
fatmanjim Wrote:My .02 on the pecking order for potential members of the leftover BigEast...

1. Louisville..no brainer.
2. Cincinnati..Solid football and basketball programs. Good media market. Good facilities. BE BBall only members will push for the Bearcats.
3. USF or UCF..I imagine the new BE will want a Florida presence. Really not much to indifferentiate these two schools. USF prolly brings more related to basketball, but really only marginally. I don't think the BE will go for both schools as the potential 'second' Florida school will add little that the first choice doesn't already bring and a second FLA school doubles travel costs for all northern members.
4. East Carolina..One of the better football programs available. Good football facilities. Provides a presence in the Carolinas which will be necessary to appeal to some of those media markets.
5. Marshall..on the field the best available football program. Good geographic fit. Good facilities for both football and basketball. Issues with NCAA sanctions, academics and financials.
6. Temple..media market, good basketball program. Obviously issues w/ football, facilities and support.
7. USF or UCF..IF the BE expands this far a second Florida school becomes more likely. Would provide add'l coverage in Florida and would provide more 'growth' opportunities than most other candidates.
8. Memphis..Good media market, good facilities, good basketball history. I'm sure the Tigers will be high on the list of the BBall only members. They don't bring much in the way of football and are a stretch from a geographic standpoint...TN is SEC country.

Navy and Army are also possibilities, but that depends in great part to how a new BE would be structured. If there is a need for football only schools, these academies would be high on the list. If the structure is all-sports memberships, they obviously fall further down the list.
The whole point and the excitment about this ESPN article is that the Big East has taken schools off the waiting list, and narrowed the search to Louisville and just 4 to fill 2 slots. Then you go ahead and put all the names right back up on the board! 05-nono

The reasoning skills of Marshall Grads are legendary.

KC
rocketfootball Wrote:I don't see South Florida coming up with the money to move to the Big East. They currently owe C-USA $2 Million for entering the league. They would also owe $500,000 for as a leaving fee which puts it to $2.5 Mill. Add to that the money they would need to come up with as an entrance fee to the Big East and I just don't think they could afford it, if they would even get invited.
That's a valid point, but since USF isn't an actual member yet, can they renege on this? (like any of us would know for sure)
fatmanjim Wrote:My .02 on the pecking order for potential members of the leftover BigEast...


3. USF or UCF..I imagine the new BE will want a Florida presence. Really not much to indifferentiate these two schools. USF prolly brings more related to basketball, but really only marginally. I don't think the BE will go for both schools as the potential 'second' Florida school will add little that the first choice doesn't already bring and a second FLA school doubles travel costs for all northern members.
On the contrary, depends on the schedule. Both schools mean teams play a game in Fl each year.

Bball could be scheduled such that one weekend covers both teams. Teams or the conference may not choose to schedule that way, but since it's possible this shouldn't be a drawback.

Frankly, Army and Navy are out b/c they are weak fball teams that actually hurt SOS. UConn and Rutgers are enough of an anchor for SOS and BCS calculations, the Big East is not looking for any more dogs.
I also agree that admitting both UCF and USF doesn't make sense. The school that is admitted instantly rockets up to CLEAR "#4" in the state with an actual prayer of competing against the Big 3. Admit two and both are fairly mediocre. There is too much in-state talent for either to be bottom feeders, but not enough for both to contend for a title.

UCF and USF both have their advantages, but I think we would come out on top in a lot of important areas. They have a medical school, but we attract better students (a difference of over 100 SAT points for incoming freshman). We're more popular among high school applicants, 20K applicants for 5K spots this fall and they're still in the 13K range. Under the old Board of Regents, only UF, FSU and UCF were allowed to be selective in their admissions. Athletically, we have a little more name recognition and we're also more popular than they are with the football recruits.

Basketball is the only thing they have over us and that's because of the Sun Dome. They play in a better basketball conference, have a better arena and yet both our RPIs were roughly the same. I don't think their advantage in basketball is such that it couldn't easily be made up by UCF being in the BE. We have a pro arena that we can use if necessary until the new convo center is built. St Johns and Georgetown do so.

We already have a good scheduling relationship with the BE and attendance hasn't been too shabby when BCS teams come to town.

Since they will visit campuses ... our campus just looks A LOT better than that former bombing range. We also have more on-campus beds (2nd most in the state behind UF: 7,956 and 8,059 respectively) and a lot of student apartment complexes surrounding the campus. While it's still little bit of a commuter campus, we have made serious strides the past 10 years and it's getting better every year. We are about where UCLA was 10 years ago in that regard. They haven't made much progress in that dept. And wait 'til they see the research park. A St Pete Times business columnist said, "USF clearly has cast an envious eye at Orlando's University of Central Florida, whose business incubator and research park are more advanced and growing."

I think some people overlook this, but it might actually get frowned upon. USF is actually in Central Florida, West Central Florida to be exact. You would think they were located in Miami or something. If you're going to have an urban or regional name, it should at least reflect your location.

At the end of the day none of this might matter, but if something does happen I hope it's us.
DrTorch Wrote:
rocketfootball Wrote:I don't see South Florida coming up with the money to move to the Big East.&nbsp; They currently owe C-USA $2 Million for entering the league.&nbsp; They would also owe $500,000 for as a leaving fee which puts it to $2.5 Mill.&nbsp; Add to that the money they would need to come up with as an entrance fee to the Big East and I just don't think they could afford it, if they would even get invited.
That's a valid point, but since USF isn't an actual member yet, can they renege on this? (like any of us would know for sure)
Who knows! I am guessing that since they are an official member, just haven't played a game yet, they would.
[quote="DrTorch"] [quote="rocketfootball"] I don't see South Florida coming up with the money to move to the Big East.
KC,
Do you have to work at being a moron or does it come natural?

There are only a few thousand 'opinions' in the media, on the internet, etc speculating as to the course of events should the big 3 leave. Because some reporter for ESPN writes an article that makes it set in stone? Give me a feakin' break.

If you take what ESPN has written, what you have written and what I have written on this matter it ain't worth a plug nickel.

All that matters is what the 5 presidents of the leftover members decide, along with the BBall only members if the leftovers decide to stay with them under one umbrella. If you want me to believe that these 5 presidents have already come to a decision over the make up of a new conference prior to the current conference imploding then you'd have to assume they have made the most influencial decision in their school's athletic history while conducting little to no research on prospective members. Now, you and ESPN may think this has or will happen, but pardon me if I take the approach that more investigation and research by the leftover schools will occur before prospective members are paired down to a select few.
fatmanjim Wrote:All that matters is what the 5 presidents of the leftover members decide, along with the BBall only members if the leftovers decide to stay with them under one umbrella.&nbsp; If you want me to believe that these 5 presidents have already come to a decision over the make up of a new conference prior to the current conference imploding then you'd have to assume they have made the most influencial decision in their school's athletic history while conducting little to no research on prospective members.&nbsp; Now, you and ESPN may think this has or will happen, but pardon me if I take the approach that more investigation and research by the leftover schools will occur before prospective members are paired down to a select few.
Hasn't the Big East been meeting now for weeks to disscuss possible backup plans? Katz wouldn't bother reporting this unless he has credible reports from a Big East source as to who they are likely going with. There could be a surprise, but with all probability they are going with the Gavitt plan, with 2 eight team divisions/conferences.

I had thought Memphis might be in the mix today, and apparently their not, but I'm willing to accept this. The original Gavitt plan called for Louisville, Temple and UCF. Temple is now toast. The remaining Big East members have been ironing out dissagreements as to who should be selected for the last month. Notre Dame doesn't want UC, and instead wants Navy, for example. The compromise might be not to add either UC or Navy. Notre Dame also doesn't want a catholic league because it will be too weak for all sports. Thus, now you hear talk of the two divisions not necessarly being split along religious lines.

Never has any formal plan considered Marshall; the only mention was in the speculation of a Sports Illustrated writer.


KC
KC,
I don't think we have much disagreement other than my belief that no concrete decisions have been made. I'm sure there have been discussions and suggestions, but nothing more. I also agree that Marshall will not be included in the new BE. As I stated in my original post, Marshall is prolly around #5 in the pecking order. The BE will prolly only add 2-3 new teams, that leaves Marshall on the outside looking in.

On a personal note, I think much of Gavitt's plan is still overly basketball oriented. Teams like VT, Pitt and WVU have invested much into their football infrastrucure. In addition, this basketball focus is part of the problem that has led up to this exodus of Miami. IMO, VT will be the new kingpin of the leftovers. If they follow Gavitt's plan, continue to align themselves with a conference focused primarily on basketball and continue to be Notre Dame's whore they will not be doing themselves any favors. I would hope that these 3 schools would finally wake up and realize football is king and take more of a leadership role in the formation of a new conference instead of dancing to the tune of the small, private basketball only schools.
fatmanjim Wrote:On a personal note, I think much of Gavitt's plan is still overly basketball oriented. Teams like VT, Pitt and WVU have invested much into their football infrastrucure. In addition, this basketball focus is part of the problem that has led up to this exodus of Miami. IMO, VT will be the new kingpin of the leftovers. If they follow Gavitt's plan, continue to align themselves with a conference focused primarily on basketball and continue to be Notre Dame's whore they will not be doing themselves any favors. I would hope that these 3 schools would finally wake up and realize football is king and take more of a leadership role in the formation of a new conference instead of dancing to the tune of the small, private basketball only schools.
If Football is King, why is it that a basketball conference without I-A football like the Atlantic 10 has a monied TV deal, when the MAC with King I-A football is stuck broadcasting its games for free. The truth is basketball is at least Queen, and has needs of her own to be fullfilled. Yeah, you say its so obvious that a team with a 60,000 a game fan base will make a boat load of cash over 7 home games. A basketball program with 20,000 a game for 20 home games will make just as much money as a 60,000 a game football program. Thats why hybrid basketball leagues like the CUSA exist; to get the basketball TV package as well as the football package.


KC
Wanna guess how much money the "Queen sport" of the BigEast will cost the leftovers once the big3 leave?
If the BigEast had focused more on football instead of trying to appease the "queen sport", the BE wouldn't be in the dire situation it finds itself in today.
Will the BBall TV package offset the losses the BE will incur from losing Miami, BC and Syracuse? Not by a long shot.
And now VT, Pitt, WVU, et al are going to continue down the same path that has burnt them once...good luck...enjoy that dandy TV package in BBall whilst you watch your BCS bid, major bowl tie-ins and football TV contract go down the toilet.
What good is a queen w/o a king?
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