Three MAC teams remain in contention for an at-large bid in the NCAAs.
I believe the team that gets the #1 seed in the MAC tourney will nearly be a cinch for such a bid, providing it doesn't lose more than two more games in February.
Chances of the individual teams:
Western Michigan. The Broncos have the best record and have played and performed the best in OOC. Unless they flop in February, WMU should be dancing.
Kent State. Every year the B-Ball mags say the Flashes are rebuilding. Wrong. They simply reload. Keep winning and KSU will likely be in the tourney too.
Toledo. The record is good, but all those blow-out losses is a big stain. The Rockets have the least margin for error regarding at-large chances. Better win the regular season MAC and make it to the MACC finals.
Overall. Isn't it ironic the MAC is way down conference-wide, but the chances are good for multiple tourney teams? On the other hand, it's an annual ritual for the MAC to deserve extra bids, only to be robbed by some 5th-7th place BCS pretender.
We shall see, we shall see.
Sure won't be Bowling Green getting an at large!
Kent and WMU are both looking very good...
Toledo? Depends on how they finish IMO.
As much as I hate to say it, I think while your basic scenarios are accurate, they are also damn near impossible.
First, they are based on the assumption that these teams can not only hold home court but virtually run the table on the road and history says that is very unlikley.
Obviously, both UT and WMU cannot be in the running for an at-large. One of them needs to sweep the two games between them and avoid other losses until the MACC final. If they split, UT is done for sure--no way can they get their RPI or other rankings high enough to have a shot. WMU could take that loss and one in the final and I think they would have a very tense Selection Sunday and still might be disappointed.
Kent has 5 MAC road games left: Akron, UB, CMU, NIU, and Ohio. ANY loss there is a final dagger, period. We have 5 home games left: Akron, Miami, Marshall, UB, and BG. Again, any loss to any of these 100-200+ rpi teams is a final dagger. Then, of course we'd have to win 2 in the MACC.
And it goes without saying, any of the above teams HAS to win their Bracket Buster game also, which is no small task.
I've seen more than one bracketologist/rpi guru say that despite the fact that 2 MAC teams might be in projectoins if the season ended today, there may, in fact, be NO mid-major teams at all getting an at-large this year. The more I look at it, the more I tend to agree they may be right.
Of all the teams, I think only WMU has room for a non-MACC final loss, but only one.
It's not so much that the MAC is "down" as it is that the big-6-8 conferences have a lot fo teams jammed in the top 50 rpi and when push comes to shove, they invariably get the bids.
Its very doubtful the MAC will get more than one team into the NCAA tournament, that obviously being the automatic bid. This is not a good year for basketball in the conference when you factor in all 14 teams. Now that everyone across the country is immersed in conference play, all the MAC teams will see a stready slide in RPI while the quality teams in the "big" conferences will see a steady increase (e.g., ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, Horizon League and even CUSA).
While Kent State and Toledo have nice teams, my bet on who will win the conference championship is Western Michigan. Beware the Broncos.
Yeah, it's easy to be cynical with what's happened in the past. The only shot is two teams dominating the rest of the season, meeting in the final and the lesser team winning. It didn't work the last couple years though.
The question is if WMU basically won out, then say, Miami or Ball State or Akron--any also-ran or worse--won the tournament, would the prevailing sentiment be, "hey, you can't leave out the best team in the MAC"? Then WMU still gets a bid, whereas if they just lost to Kent they might be screwed? Just a theory...
P.S. I'm not saying WMU is better than KSU. They just might be more "electable" this year.
Perception is everything. I'd agree that WMU has the better resume. The win over UAB is a very good one. The win over DePaul is looking better. Neither of the PAC 10 teams is really very good, but you take both wins together and it really helps the profile even though neither team would be threatening to be much over .500 in the MAC this year.
Compare that to Kent's road win over SMS, which from a hoops standpoint is as good a team as either ASU or USC, doesn't help that much being a mid-major conf. team. Plus, we lost to URI and BC. Those losses, even OT at BC, will hurt us unless BC gets hot.
Like I said earlier, WMU has the best chance despite losing to us. Another problem they face is no matter what they do, if they lose to us in the final they could get cut out, with the reasoning of the committee being "Kent's obviously the best MAC team; they beat WMU twice; nobody can say we left the best team home." So in that regard, they would be better off to lose to an upstart team who gets hot has no real credentials to be in the field other than the tourney win.
Another thing that helps is if tv talking heads take up your cause. Dick Vitale has been pretty good about defending the MAC, but usually AFTER we are screwed. And that horse's arse, Jay Bilas is always so dismissive of those outside of his elite worldview. Does anyone hate that guy with the fury that I do?
When a particular team has gotten screwed, like Butler a couple years back, a groundswell of sentiment can help their cause, but with the MAC the screwing has been spread over several teams, so it dissipates.
I think Kent and WMU can both get in with an at-large if necessary. A lot of other power conferences flat out SUCK this year. The Big Ten is absolutely awful. That conference will get 4 or 5 in, but should maybe only get two.
Toledo, IMO, doesn't have a chance. Look for the Rockets to fizzle down the stretch, and even if they don't, their resume isn't all that good. We smoked them at home and had them on the ropes at their place without our leading scorer (strep throat) and our two seniors and a junior starter playing horribly last night. If Ball State's two seniors get going, I think we can win the conference tournamament. We have lost three conference road games against arguably the three toughest team in the MAC (WMU, Toledo, & Kent) by a total of 10 points...and we beat Miami on the road - a tough place to win.
I think you always have to give the other team some credit when your players play poorly. Our last 3 games, our opponents have bemoaned their poor shooting. Is there a pattern here?
I've long been a believer in the over-quoted Parcells line: "You are exactly as good as your record says you are."
BTW, we lost at Miami, but I don't thnk it's a particularly difficult MAC arena. And I don't mean that in relation to how we've played there over the years, I mean for visiting teams in general. The fans are among the quietest, relative to size, in the MAC I think. What I don't like there is the unusual shooting background, which coupled with CC's slowdown offense, puts scoring opportunites at more of a premium and can really get a team out of its offensive flow. I think, just in the East, that Akron, Marshall, and Ohio are all tougher environments to deal with year in and year out, regardless of the quality of the teams--though OU gets a lot easier when they draw like they are this year.
niu85alum Wrote:Its very doubtful the MAC will get more than one team into the NCAA tournament, that obviously being the automatic bid. This is not a good year for basketball in the conference when you factor in all 14 teams. Now that everyone across the country is immersed in conference play, all the MAC teams will see a stready slide in RPI while the quality teams in the "big" conferences will see a steady increase (e.g., ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, Horizon League and even CUSA).
While Kent State and Toledo have nice teams, my bet on who will win the conference championship is Western Michigan. Beware the Broncos.
Kent could possibly get an at large bid, based on past years rep, if the lost in the MACC game. Everyone else needs to win the MACC to go dancing.
BSU's players have actually said that playing at Miami is tough because the crowd IS so dead. Between the crowd and Charlie's style of play, that place really lulls you to sleep. The players would also argue with you about the good shooting background. IT is dark in there and the two baskets have VERY different backgrounds. Miami has a heck of a home record over the past several years, so there's got to be something to it. I think just about everywhere in the MAC is a tough place to play. Heck, Ball State is one heck of a tough place to play. BG is tough. OU is usually tough.
I think WMU has the best chance at an at-large berth RIGHT NOW, but a lot of things can change. WMU has the best RPI and resume right now.
BSU4U Wrote:The players would also argue with you about the good shooting background. IT is dark in there and the two baskets have VERY different backgrounds.
That's what I said, actually. ("What I don't like there is the unusual shooting background.")
Every visiting player complains about it when they first see it.
I think the lack of crowd involvement is a plus for road teams, not a negative. That's what makes Anderson A. the toughest arena: the closeness and volume of the crowd.
I say again, I think a MAC at-large is unlikely. Even in what some would say is an "up" year, 2001-2002, and we had 3 deserving teams, we got only the one auto-bid. Ball got knocked out despite a great OOC record by being 1-3 vs. Kent and BG and BG got knocked out by being 0-3 vs. Kent. Same will happen to the MACC loser this year if it is the East or West champ. Of course, no one else has a chance.
Oops, my bad on the shooting background.
However, on the crowd, I'm just telling you what our players said. Then again, I think we have a strange group. They feed off of the road crowd.
But I do think there is something to a dead environment against a team that really does lull you to sleep like Miami and its crowd does. It's hard to stay focused and it is easy to not take them too seriously.
In the end, just look at the numbers. Miami wins at home in the conference.
The selection committee looks at individual teams, not whether a conference is having a down or an up year. Because the MAC is a little down this year, both Kent and WM have a chance to compile awesome win-loss records that they would not be able to match if the conference was having a strong year. A few years ago the Horizon league got 3 teams in when they had two very strong teams and a 3rd team won the tournament. If Kent and WM can win 23-25 games and keep an RPI under 50 they will likely get in if they lose in the MAC semi's or finals.....The whole conference could help the cause a bit by having a big day on Bracket busters Saturday. That would be the last chance to collectively boost the RPI which would have an effect on the RPI of both Kent and Western. It would not surprise me at all to see Ball State or Miami win the MAC tournament, so 2 or 3 teams is more possible this year than most. But Kent and Western have to win just about all their games.
50? 40 is the historical standard for at-large teams, particulalry mid-majors. We were left out one year with and an RPI of 33-35 depending on whose RPI you looked at.
We lost our last two games to Ohio--at home to end the regular season to lose the MAC championship, then in the MAC quarters, which, of course, forced Ohio to fire Larry Hunter so this would never happen again.
:D
Also, our recent win at BG moved our RPI from 46 to 53. How do we get it to go down when there are no MAC opponents with RPI's under 100? (we've played UT and WMU, though Miami is right around 100.)
WMU's RPI went up when they lost to us, then goes down when they beat OU, EMU, etc.
At-large is very, very unlikely.