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Quote:Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: Gonzaga, Pacific, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Utah
Work left to do: Vermont, Old Dominion, Miami (OH), San Francisco, St. Mary's, Kent State, Princeton, Holy Cross, UTEP, Nevada, Temple, Saint Joseph's, George Washington, Wisc.-Milwaukee

Deep year for mid-majors and others outside the big seven, with the MVC and WCC clamoring for two or three bids apiece. Here are some of the at-large hopefuls, in RPI order.

Vermont (15-3 (10-0), RPI: 20, SOS: 126) Had two chances for marquee win (Kansas and North Carolina) and didn't get either. Still, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 100 and great RPI compensate for soft slate. Bracket Buster game at Nevada could be big. Should get a bid if it loses in Am. East final, but justice not always served. This year's Utah State?

Old Dominion (19-3 (9-1), RPI: 31, SOS: 217) Or are Monarchs this year's USU? Great record, horrible schedule. Beat Kent State and Saint Joe's. Solid CAA makes auto bid no cinch at all. Better keep winning.

Miami (OH) (12-5 (7-2), RPI: 29, SOS: 80) Great RPI, tough conference that probably should get two bids, but no marquee win at all and a modest schedule. One non-D-I win won't help. RedHawks would be wise to win MAC tourney.

San Francisco (13-7 (4-3), RPI: 32, SOS: 52) Recent loss to St. Mary's may be killer for surging Dons. Have beaten Gonzaga. Would like to see WCC get three in, but mind says only two. Dons likely need to win WCC tourney or have St. Mary's fall apart.

St. Mary's (19-5 (6-1), RPI: 34, SOS: 105) Pretty close to a lock, barring some unforeseen collapse. Sweep of Zags on Thursday would pretty much clinch it.

Kent State (14-7 (6-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 63) Loss to Old Dominion may be killer tiebreaker. Near misses against Marquette and BC probably mean Kent needs to win the MAC tourney.

Princeton (10-6 (1-1), RPI: 46, SOS: 58) Losing Ivy opener to Brown helped drop RPI about 20 spots. Played good slate, but best wins are Davidson, Bucknell and Holy Cross. Can't see at-large if pipped by Penn for Ivy auto bid, even if RPI hints at it -- two more losses are probably too many.

Holy Cross (15-5 (6-1), RPI: 47, SOS: 116) No wins of note, lost to Princeton and weak schedule. Better handle Bucknell and others in Patriot tourney.

UTEP (17-4 (7-2), RPI: 55, SOS: 172) WAC should get two bids, but it may only happen if Nevada wins the tourney. Beat Arizona State, Nevada and Princeton. Bad loss at La. Tech makes this look less secure than it was a few days ago.

Nevada (14-5 (7-2), RPI: 56, SOS: 107) Home loss to Fresno hurts. No notable wins. Probably a half-step behind UTEP in at-large race, which means may need to win the WAC.

Temple (9-8 (5-1), RPI: 65, SOS: 55) Typical Owl profile -- light on wins but heavy on schedule. With GW's collapse, A-10 might very well be a one-bid this season.  :eek: Probably need to beat GW and take at least one from Saint Joe's to have a chance.

Saint Joseph's (9-8 (6-1), RPI: 66, SOS: 46) Lost to San Francisco and Old Dominion. Just don't see it.

Wisc.-Milwaukee (15-5 (8-2), RPI: 75, SOS: 223) Beat Air Force, Manhattan and split with Wisc.-GB. Probably needed to beat Wisconsin or Kansas earlier to have more legit shot.

George Washington (13-5 (5-3), RPI: 80, SOS: 193) Shocking recent slump takes starch out of Maryland, Michigan State wins. Manageable schedule down stretch gives Colonials some at-large hope despite dicey computer numbers. 2-1 vs. RPI Top 25.

Interesting about those bubble teams. The Mac has several teams that are just off the bubble rpi (50-100) level. Miami's win tonite is a big win. They will win the east division.

Someone thinks we are still on the bubble? :eek:

It's just the national media. They don't know anything.

I would say that because of our conference strength this year, the regular season champ has a decent shot as long as they have a good OOC win on the books. No one else has a chance. Only one mid-major team in the last 11 years has received an at-large bid who was not the regular season champ or co-champ. Our #1 seed has a shot, depending on the OOC resume.

It'll be interesting to see how the committee deals with the 'new' RPI. This has inflated a lot of mid-majors into the Top 50. Consider that, at the moment, there are the following mid-majors in the Top 50:

11. Gonzaga
14. Southern Ill
18. Vermont
22. Wichita State
25. Pacific
26. Miami University
32. St. Mary's College
39. Old Dominion
41. Ball State
43. Louisiana-Lafayette
46. Kent State
48. Holy Cross
50. Princeton

That's 13 teams! Last year only five teams were in the Top 50 (Gonzaga, Southern Ill, Manhattan, Western Michigan and Utah State). As a result of the change, the mid-majors are getting a heck of a lot more quality games against Top 50 opponents. Miami will play 7 games against Top 50 opponents (as of today) before the MAC tournament. Last year, they had 4. Thus, the possibility for the Top 50 win has increased, etc. etc.

Personally, I'll be surprised if the mid-majors don't garner 5 to 7 at-large bids. It would be hard to ignore the evidence.

As far as the MAC goes, Miami is in best shape for an at-large, with the conference lead and 6 of their final 9 games against Top 100 opponents. Kent and Akron also have 6 of 9 against Top 100 teams, so they have the best shots to gain. The Western 2 (Ball St and Western) only play 4 of 9, so they are in tougher shape.

A Miami win vs. Wichita State in the Bracketbuster would go a long ways toward helping MU to gain an NCAA at large berth.

Cincy, after your RedHawks lose Wednesday at Ball State it won't matter. :D

Yeah, well first we gotta beat Buffalo! No win is for certain in this league this year!