03-01-2005, 12:37 PM
The good news: hasn't ruled out the MAC getting an at-large bid.
The bad news: it seems to mean that Miami (OH) has the only chance at an at-large bd.
<a href='http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpcmc2NWVyBF9TAzI1NjY0ODI1BHNlYwNvZQ--?slug=cnnsi-makingbubbleolo&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns' target='_blank'>http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_ylc=X3...cnnsi&type=lgns</a>
Making Bubbleology easy
Seth Davis, SI.com
That marvelous sound you hear is your calendar turning from February to March -- the most glorious month of the year. This is the time when people like me get asked lots of questions about teams who are on the proverbial bubble. Most of the time, I'll answer the radio host/e-mailer/hoophead-on-the-street by predicting that the team they've asked about will in fact be in the NCAA tournament. The reply is often one of surprise. That team couldn't possibly be in the tournament, right?
Actually, wrong. Here's the misunderstood math of Bubbleology 101: There are more bids available than you think. A lot more.
In an effort to make matters simple, I have broken down the NCAA tournament landscape in terms any layman can understand. Here's the bottom line: There are 24 teams on my bubble, with 16 bids up for grabs. That means only eight of my bubble teams will be disappointed Selection Sunday. Pretty good odds, I'd say.
There's an important caveat to add, however. The number of available bids could dwindle if certain teams from my "wild-card" conferences -- that is, conferences which could get more than one team but are not guaranteed it -- lose in their postseason tournaments. And of course, we can't rule out huge surprises in the power conference tournaments that could further diminish the bubblicious opportunities.
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If a team isn't on any of my lists below, that means it can only get to the tournament if it wins its league tourney. Notables among this inglorious grouping: Buffalo, Missouri-Kansas City, Saint Joseph's, UTEP, Utah State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Here, then, is how I see the field breaking down at this moment:
The "Ins"
These 27 teams, representing nine conferences, will be in the tournament even if they don't win a game the rest of the season: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke (ACC); Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh (Big East); Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech (Big 12); Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin (Big Ten); Louisville, Charlotte, Cincinnati (Conference USA); Utah (Mountain West); Arizona, Washington (Pac-10); Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, LSU (SEC); Gonzaga, St. Mary's (WCC).
Add to those the 14 leagues that will get only one bid no matter what, and you have 41 bids accounted for. That leaves 24 remaining.
The Wild Cards
There are eight more conferences who have an automatic bid plus a chance at an at-large or two. Of the teams in these leagues, I'd say George Washington (Atlantic-10), Pacific (Big West), Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley) and Nevada (WAC) have high probabilities of getting at-large invites if they don't win their respective championships. The shakier wild cards are: Old Dominion (Colonial), Miami of Ohio (MAC), Davidson (Southern) and Vermont (America East). Those four would have a very difficult time getting at-large bids if they need them, but it's not impossible.
For the sake of our paradigm, let's assume all eight of the above teams win their league titles. We still have a whopping 16 spots left unclaimed.
The Bubble
Here's where it gets fun. By my estimation, there are 24 teams remaining that are not guaranteed an at-large bid should they lose the rest of their games. (Though some could, in fact, do just that.) Others would have to win everything until the conference tournament final to be considered.
To give you a sense of how things are likely to play themselves out, I have broken my bubble into four "flights" and listed each team in order of strength. (RPI rankings, as calculated by CollegeRPI.com, are in parentheses.) As of today, assuming all eight wild cards win their league tournaments, only the teams in the D flight would be out. If you look at the last few teams in my C flight, you'll probably be surprised who's in the tournament if today were Selection Sunday. And that's the point.
A Flight:
Maryland (38): A win at Virginia Tech or in the ACC tourney would close the deal, but the Terps are mostly safe thanks to a win over Georgia Tech and a sweep of Duke.
DePaul (41): With some bad losses early (Northern Illinois, Bradley, Northwestern), the Blue Demons could use one more win, just to be sure.
Georgia Tech (44): B.J. Elder's missed time due to injury gives the Jackets more margin for error than most people realize. A win at Miami last weekend helped, but a win over Clemson at home Saturday would erase any doubt.
Mississippi State (31): If dangerous last week (at Arkansas, vs. Alabama) yields two losses, Bulldogs might still need a win in SEC tourney.
Notre Dame (51): Might have been listed in the "in" club but for a home loss to UCLA on Sunday. The Irish can punch their ticket by beating Rutgers at home Wednesday.
B Flight:
Georgetown (66): A loss at UConn tonight would be the Hoyas' fourth straight, but a home win over Providence would put them at 9-7 in the league and in solid shape.
Texas (35): Even if the Longhorns lose to Oklahoma State, they'd be .500 in the Big 12 regular season. They have enough good wins to get the benefit of the doubt.
Iowa State (79): The Cyclones didn't help themselves by stumbling at home to Nebraska for their second straight loss, but a recent seven-game win streak included victories over Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas.
Stanford (36): A win over Arizona and sweep of UCLA will look real good in the committee's meeting room. One more win (perhaps at home Thursday against Washington State) would make including the Cardinal an easy choice.
Minnesota (47): Aside from a home loss to Northwestern, the Gophers have done a good job beating the lower-tier teams in the Big Ten, and they also have a win over Wisconsin. A loss at Penn State on Wednesday, however, would be very damaging.
UCLA (30): RPI ranking is somewhat inflated because Bruins played (but lost to) Boston College and Michigan State. Still, they have a win over Washington, and Sunday's triumph at Notre Dame put them in much stronger position.
C Flight:
Miami (63): The 'Canes benefited from an imbalanced ACC schedule, but a win at Florida in December and over Maryland on Feb. 5 will help. They could obviously seal the deal by winning at Duke Wednesday.
West Virginia (53): The Mountaineers have a sweep over Pittsburgh plus wins over George Washington, at LSU and at N.C. State. If they win at Seton Hall on Saturday, that would give them five straight plus a 9-7 Big East record.
Texas A&M (75): Aggies vaulted into this flight with home wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech last week. They have also beaten Texas, and if they lose at Oklahoma State and win at Baylor, they'd be 8-8 in the Big 12 and very much alive.
N.C. State (86): Wolfpack have some pretty bad losses (St. John's on the road, Virginia and Florida State at home), but they also swept Maryland and Georgia Tech. Go figure.
Indiana (69): A win at Madison tonight (unlikely as it may be) would vault the Hoosiers into my A flight. Still, they have only one bad loss (at Northwestern) and good wins over Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State. Even if they lose at Wisconsin and beat Northwestern at home, they'd be 10-6 in the league and still in the hunt.
D Flight (out as of today):
Virginia Tech (116): The Hokies have good wins at Georgia Tech and at home against N.C. State, Miami and the huge one over Duke. Still, a Dec. 4 loss at VMI is a killer, and they also lost at St. John's and at home to Western Michigan.
Memphis (121): Tigers had some really bad losses early in the season and let a golden opportunity slip away at home against Louisville last weekend. A win over Cincinnati on Saturday would be a big help. And keep in mind Memphis is hosting the Conference USA tournament.
New Mexico (94): The Lobos helped their cause immensely by beating Utah last week, and the committee might give them some leeway because their best player, Danny Granger, missed some games because of an injury. Still, they're several wins away from getting a chance.
Oregon State (103): The Beavers also took some lumps while leading scorer David Lucas was hurt. A couple of wins in L.A. this week, to go with home wins over UCLA and Washington, would keep them in the ballgame.
Arizona State (57): It's hard to imagine a sub-.500 team from the Pac-10 getting a bid, but that's how slim the pickings can get when you're plugging in the last couple of teams. The Sun Devils have a chance to get a huge boost when they host Arizona on Saturday.
Wichita State (34): This is a classic example of a team's RPI ranking being helped by the offseason change to give added weight to road games. The Shockers did beat Southern Illinois at home, but they have five losses in the Missouri Valley Conference, including four in their last five. A run to the MVC final would at least make things interesting.
Vanderbilt (74): A home win over Alabama on Jan. 5 is about the only thing keeping the Commodores on this list. If they don't lose again until the SEC final, they'll have a shot, but it's a long one.
South Carolina (87): The Gamecocks handed Kentucky its only SEC loss to date, but they have lost four of their last five to put themselves pretty much out of the race for an at-large bid. Their only hope is to win their last two games and beat Kentucky again in the SEC tournament
The bad news: it seems to mean that Miami (OH) has the only chance at an at-large bd.
<a href='http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpcmc2NWVyBF9TAzI1NjY0ODI1BHNlYwNvZQ--?slug=cnnsi-makingbubbleolo&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns' target='_blank'>http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_ylc=X3...cnnsi&type=lgns</a>
Making Bubbleology easy
Seth Davis, SI.com
That marvelous sound you hear is your calendar turning from February to March -- the most glorious month of the year. This is the time when people like me get asked lots of questions about teams who are on the proverbial bubble. Most of the time, I'll answer the radio host/e-mailer/hoophead-on-the-street by predicting that the team they've asked about will in fact be in the NCAA tournament. The reply is often one of surprise. That team couldn't possibly be in the tournament, right?
Actually, wrong. Here's the misunderstood math of Bubbleology 101: There are more bids available than you think. A lot more.
In an effort to make matters simple, I have broken down the NCAA tournament landscape in terms any layman can understand. Here's the bottom line: There are 24 teams on my bubble, with 16 bids up for grabs. That means only eight of my bubble teams will be disappointed Selection Sunday. Pretty good odds, I'd say.
There's an important caveat to add, however. The number of available bids could dwindle if certain teams from my "wild-card" conferences -- that is, conferences which could get more than one team but are not guaranteed it -- lose in their postseason tournaments. And of course, we can't rule out huge surprises in the power conference tournaments that could further diminish the bubblicious opportunities.
ADVERTISEMENT
If a team isn't on any of my lists below, that means it can only get to the tournament if it wins its league tourney. Notables among this inglorious grouping: Buffalo, Missouri-Kansas City, Saint Joseph's, UTEP, Utah State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Here, then, is how I see the field breaking down at this moment:
The "Ins"
These 27 teams, representing nine conferences, will be in the tournament even if they don't win a game the rest of the season: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke (ACC); Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh (Big East); Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech (Big 12); Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin (Big Ten); Louisville, Charlotte, Cincinnati (Conference USA); Utah (Mountain West); Arizona, Washington (Pac-10); Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, LSU (SEC); Gonzaga, St. Mary's (WCC).
Add to those the 14 leagues that will get only one bid no matter what, and you have 41 bids accounted for. That leaves 24 remaining.
The Wild Cards
There are eight more conferences who have an automatic bid plus a chance at an at-large or two. Of the teams in these leagues, I'd say George Washington (Atlantic-10), Pacific (Big West), Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley) and Nevada (WAC) have high probabilities of getting at-large invites if they don't win their respective championships. The shakier wild cards are: Old Dominion (Colonial), Miami of Ohio (MAC), Davidson (Southern) and Vermont (America East). Those four would have a very difficult time getting at-large bids if they need them, but it's not impossible.
For the sake of our paradigm, let's assume all eight of the above teams win their league titles. We still have a whopping 16 spots left unclaimed.
The Bubble
Here's where it gets fun. By my estimation, there are 24 teams remaining that are not guaranteed an at-large bid should they lose the rest of their games. (Though some could, in fact, do just that.) Others would have to win everything until the conference tournament final to be considered.
To give you a sense of how things are likely to play themselves out, I have broken my bubble into four "flights" and listed each team in order of strength. (RPI rankings, as calculated by CollegeRPI.com, are in parentheses.) As of today, assuming all eight wild cards win their league tournaments, only the teams in the D flight would be out. If you look at the last few teams in my C flight, you'll probably be surprised who's in the tournament if today were Selection Sunday. And that's the point.
A Flight:
Maryland (38): A win at Virginia Tech or in the ACC tourney would close the deal, but the Terps are mostly safe thanks to a win over Georgia Tech and a sweep of Duke.
DePaul (41): With some bad losses early (Northern Illinois, Bradley, Northwestern), the Blue Demons could use one more win, just to be sure.
Georgia Tech (44): B.J. Elder's missed time due to injury gives the Jackets more margin for error than most people realize. A win at Miami last weekend helped, but a win over Clemson at home Saturday would erase any doubt.
Mississippi State (31): If dangerous last week (at Arkansas, vs. Alabama) yields two losses, Bulldogs might still need a win in SEC tourney.
Notre Dame (51): Might have been listed in the "in" club but for a home loss to UCLA on Sunday. The Irish can punch their ticket by beating Rutgers at home Wednesday.
B Flight:
Georgetown (66): A loss at UConn tonight would be the Hoyas' fourth straight, but a home win over Providence would put them at 9-7 in the league and in solid shape.
Texas (35): Even if the Longhorns lose to Oklahoma State, they'd be .500 in the Big 12 regular season. They have enough good wins to get the benefit of the doubt.
Iowa State (79): The Cyclones didn't help themselves by stumbling at home to Nebraska for their second straight loss, but a recent seven-game win streak included victories over Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas.
Stanford (36): A win over Arizona and sweep of UCLA will look real good in the committee's meeting room. One more win (perhaps at home Thursday against Washington State) would make including the Cardinal an easy choice.
Minnesota (47): Aside from a home loss to Northwestern, the Gophers have done a good job beating the lower-tier teams in the Big Ten, and they also have a win over Wisconsin. A loss at Penn State on Wednesday, however, would be very damaging.
UCLA (30): RPI ranking is somewhat inflated because Bruins played (but lost to) Boston College and Michigan State. Still, they have a win over Washington, and Sunday's triumph at Notre Dame put them in much stronger position.
C Flight:
Miami (63): The 'Canes benefited from an imbalanced ACC schedule, but a win at Florida in December and over Maryland on Feb. 5 will help. They could obviously seal the deal by winning at Duke Wednesday.
West Virginia (53): The Mountaineers have a sweep over Pittsburgh plus wins over George Washington, at LSU and at N.C. State. If they win at Seton Hall on Saturday, that would give them five straight plus a 9-7 Big East record.
Texas A&M (75): Aggies vaulted into this flight with home wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech last week. They have also beaten Texas, and if they lose at Oklahoma State and win at Baylor, they'd be 8-8 in the Big 12 and very much alive.
N.C. State (86): Wolfpack have some pretty bad losses (St. John's on the road, Virginia and Florida State at home), but they also swept Maryland and Georgia Tech. Go figure.
Indiana (69): A win at Madison tonight (unlikely as it may be) would vault the Hoosiers into my A flight. Still, they have only one bad loss (at Northwestern) and good wins over Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State. Even if they lose at Wisconsin and beat Northwestern at home, they'd be 10-6 in the league and still in the hunt.
D Flight (out as of today):
Virginia Tech (116): The Hokies have good wins at Georgia Tech and at home against N.C. State, Miami and the huge one over Duke. Still, a Dec. 4 loss at VMI is a killer, and they also lost at St. John's and at home to Western Michigan.
Memphis (121): Tigers had some really bad losses early in the season and let a golden opportunity slip away at home against Louisville last weekend. A win over Cincinnati on Saturday would be a big help. And keep in mind Memphis is hosting the Conference USA tournament.
New Mexico (94): The Lobos helped their cause immensely by beating Utah last week, and the committee might give them some leeway because their best player, Danny Granger, missed some games because of an injury. Still, they're several wins away from getting a chance.
Oregon State (103): The Beavers also took some lumps while leading scorer David Lucas was hurt. A couple of wins in L.A. this week, to go with home wins over UCLA and Washington, would keep them in the ballgame.
Arizona State (57): It's hard to imagine a sub-.500 team from the Pac-10 getting a bid, but that's how slim the pickings can get when you're plugging in the last couple of teams. The Sun Devils have a chance to get a huge boost when they host Arizona on Saturday.
Wichita State (34): This is a classic example of a team's RPI ranking being helped by the offseason change to give added weight to road games. The Shockers did beat Southern Illinois at home, but they have five losses in the Missouri Valley Conference, including four in their last five. A run to the MVC final would at least make things interesting.
Vanderbilt (74): A home win over Alabama on Jan. 5 is about the only thing keeping the Commodores on this list. If they don't lose again until the SEC final, they'll have a shot, but it's a long one.
South Carolina (87): The Gamecocks handed Kentucky its only SEC loss to date, but they have lost four of their last five to put themselves pretty much out of the race for an at-large bid. Their only hope is to win their last two games and beat Kentucky again in the SEC tournament