RE: Big 12 pursuing Duke to join conference
XII chances with ACC schools (presuming the ACC bleeds members):
0% - Will be in B1G or SEC. Waste of paper for the XII to offer.
- Florida St
- North Carolina
- Notre Dame
- Virginia
20% - Great chance to be in B1G or SEC. The XII should wait until everything unfolds then offer a full share.
- Clemson
- Miami
40% - Good chance to be in B1G or SEC. The XII could wait until everything unfolds or be proactive but could/should offer a full share.
- Duke
- North Carolina St
- Virginia Tech
60% - Okay chance to be in B1G or SEC. Same as above but definitely not first choices and maybe not full shares up front.
- Georgia Tech
- Stanford
80% - Slight chance to be in B1G or SEC. Louisville and Pittsburgh are "full share" kind of schools but no need to make an offer yet if the 20%/40% schools are still available. California may likely reject any offer from the XII.
- California
- Louisville
- Pittsburgh
100% - Neither B1G or SEC will be calling. There is no need for the XII to call these schools with a very outside possibility of Syracuse. There are non-power schools that could/would be better additions. Even then, a full share should not be offered.
- Boston College
- SMU
- Syracuse
- Wake Forest
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How I see this all playing out if decisions were made today:
B1G and SEC like additions beyond 20 but not to 24 so both settle in at 22. The SEC reaches into the XII for one school.
> B1G (18) + Duke, Miami, Stanford, Virginia
> SEC (16) + Clemson, Florida St, Kansas, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
> Notre Dame decides to remain an independent and join the Big East.
Now, the XII (15) and ACC (8) have some decisions to make.
> The XII raids the ACC and adds: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh. The XII sits at 18.
> The Big East (12) adds: Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest. All become football independents.
> MWC adds Oregon St, SMU, and Washington St as full members. California joins the Big West as #12 and the MWC as a football-only member. The MWC is now at 14/16.
Alignments for conferences mentioned above:
B1G: Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
XII: Arizona, Arizona St, Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Louisville, Oklahoma St, Pittsburgh, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, West Virginia
Big East: Boston College^, Butler, Connecticut^, Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame^, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Syracuse^, Villanova, Wake Forest^, Xavier
MWC: Air Force, Boise St, California*, Colorado St, Fresno St, Hawaii*, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon St, San Diego St, San Jose St, SMU, UNLV, Utah St, Washington St, Wyoming
Big West: California, Cal Poly, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal State Fullerton, Cal State Northridge, Hawaii, Long Beach St, UC Davis, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara
* Football-Only
^ FBS Football Independent
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