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Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 01:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 01:38 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:50 PM)bullet Wrote:  The idea that there are still bowl payouts is inconsistent with the reporting that payouts will be split equally among the P5 schools, not the conferences. Otherwise, the smaller conferences would be getting more money per school. They have eliminated that advantage the Big 12 and Pac 12 used to have. What Wilner and Calzano are saying is a direct contradiction of that.

And do you really think the Rose wouldn't have some kind of composition clause? A 2 Pac would not get paid $40 million a year. They aren't even a conference for CFP purposes.

The idea that the PAC-2 isn't getting a Rose Bowl check is inconsistent with the PAC-10 statement that there are hundreds of millions of dollars coming in in future years.

And you'd be surprised at who doesn't have composition clauses. According to FSU and Clemson, ESPN doesn't ahve a composition clause for the ACC contract.

And the Rose Bowl might not care too much. They're still getting paid by ESPN and/or the CFP (with ESPN money). The Rose Bowl is a quarterfinal, not a Big 10 - PAC 12 game, so who cares who is in the PAC for the last two years of the contract?

It's not like the Tournament of Roses committee would be banking the $40M a year check that the PAC 12 would get -- if it doesn't go to the PAC it goes into the CFP blender.

It is going into the CFP pot. Not to the Pac 2.

That's my belief as well.

I guess we shall see.
04-01-2024 02:32 PM
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billings Offline
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Post: #122
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 12:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  How many times do we need to say these things:

Repeating them doesn't make them any more persuasive.

Quote:1) Wilner and Canzano aren't reliable on these sorts of things; and
2) There is NO Rose Bowl payout the next two years.

More reliable than you or I. The situation is that Wilner and Canzano have referred to Rose Bowl money. The Departing 10 in their statement refer to "hundreds of millions" coming to the PAC in future years. There's no way to get to that number without Rose Bowl / CFP money-in-lieu-of-Rose-Bowl.

Quote:There has never been a payout when it was part of the playoff. There will be no Rose, no Sugar, no Orange payout.

That has been the case in the past. The PAC-12 Form 990 from the years where there was and where there was not a PAC 12-Big Ten Rose Bowl support that.

But the situation is now changed, and the testimony we have from people in a position to know is different than our deductions from publicly available evidence from past years.

Timelines matter. I think the 100's of millions comment was before the CFP expansion to 12 and the 5+7 format was decided on.
04-01-2024 02:43 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #123
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 02:43 PM)billings Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  How many times do we need to say these things:

Repeating them doesn't make them any more persuasive.

Quote:1) Wilner and Canzano aren't reliable on these sorts of things; and
2) There is NO Rose Bowl payout the next two years.

More reliable than you or I. The situation is that Wilner and Canzano have referred to Rose Bowl money. The Departing 10 in their statement refer to "hundreds of millions" coming to the PAC in future years. There's no way to get to that number without Rose Bowl / CFP money-in-lieu-of-Rose-Bowl.

Quote:There has never been a payout when it was part of the playoff. There will be no Rose, no Sugar, no Orange payout.

That has been the case in the past. The PAC-12 Form 990 from the years where there was and where there was not a PAC 12-Big Ten Rose Bowl support that.

But the situation is now changed, and the testimony we have from people in a position to know is different than our deductions from publicly available evidence from past years.

Timelines matter. I think the 100's of millions comment was before the CFP expansion to 12 and the 5+7 format was decided on.

Nope, it was last december. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...gal-battle
04-01-2024 02:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #124
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 02:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 02:43 PM)billings Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:09 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  How many times do we need to say these things:

Repeating them doesn't make them any more persuasive.

Quote:1) Wilner and Canzano aren't reliable on these sorts of things; and
2) There is NO Rose Bowl payout the next two years.

More reliable than you or I. The situation is that Wilner and Canzano have referred to Rose Bowl money. The Departing 10 in their statement refer to "hundreds of millions" coming to the PAC in future years. There's no way to get to that number without Rose Bowl / CFP money-in-lieu-of-Rose-Bowl.

Quote:There has never been a payout when it was part of the playoff. There will be no Rose, no Sugar, no Orange payout.

That has been the case in the past. The PAC-12 Form 990 from the years where there was and where there was not a PAC 12-Big Ten Rose Bowl support that.

But the situation is now changed, and the testimony we have from people in a position to know is different than our deductions from publicly available evidence from past years.

Timelines matter. I think the 100's of millions comment was before the CFP expansion to 12 and the 5+7 format was decided on.

Nope, it was last december. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...gal-battle

OK, but was that December article before or after how the money aspect (ESPN/bowl payouts) for the 12-team playoffs in 2024 and 2025 would be handled?

I don't know.

I mean, I am assuming ESPN is paying more for the 12-team playoff those years.

Also, IIRC, in the 2014 deal, in years when the Rose/Sugar/Orange were playoff games, the conferences did not get those $40m checks. My understanding is that in 2024 and 2025, they will now be playoff games, so this leads me to believe those payments were folded in to the CFP.

But that's all speculation, I admit.
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2024 03:15 PM by quo vadis.)
04-01-2024 03:12 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #125
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 12:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 11:56 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:18 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The $33 million dollar number is NCAA units for the next two years. That is $16.5 million each. Then you can add the $65 million. No one knows what the results of any lawsuit will be, but they are more than covered. They have ticket revenue, media revenue, athletic donations. The Oregon legislature has allocated $10 million dollars to Oregon State for athletic scholarships. And they have the expenses of running an athletic department. They are good for the next two years. After that, the future is unknown. I never said that they are going to fund another schools exit fee. You said that.

This is not correct. The exit agreement of the Pac-12 schools refers to the NCAA credits earned up to this year as pre-exit earnings which are deferred, and thus still the property of all 12 schools, split 1/12th to each school. There is no windfall. Wilner actually breaks down the credit payouts quite well. NCAA MBB credits are deferred 2024 and prior earnings, not future earnings. There is no windfall here for WSU and OSU.

ii. Future Revenue. No Departing Member shall have any claim to
distribution of any amount of Conference revenues earned, due to be paid or,
except as set forth in subclause (1) ofthis Section 2.a.ii, actually received in
Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Year 2026, or any subsequent Fiscal Year (including
without limitation, NCAA Basketball Performance Fund Unit distributions even if
related to prior Fiscal Years) (collectively, “Future Revenue”).


No Departing Member shall have any claim to distribution of Conference revenues due to be paid in any future Fiscal Year (including NCAA tournament money)

Somethign called Delayed REvenue, which is separate from tournament money, is to be divided equally in 12 shares.

Incorrect. MBB credits are not considered 2025 or 2026 revenue, rather deferred revenue from prior years. Credits earned 2019-2024 are for those years, the payments delayed, as part of a rolling average. Payments in 2025 and 2026 are in fact considered 2024 and prior earnings deferred.

Relevant passage in the agreement (part ii, 1):
[Image: GJiCV8haoAApijC?format=png&name=small]

There will be zero new credits in 2025 and 2026 as any credits earned by Oregon State or Washington State contractually belong to the WCC for distribution, which they are not entitled to as associate members.
04-01-2024 05:40 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #126
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 05:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 11:56 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:18 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The $33 million dollar number is NCAA units for the next two years. That is $16.5 million each. Then you can add the $65 million. No one knows what the results of any lawsuit will be, but they are more than covered. They have ticket revenue, media revenue, athletic donations. The Oregon legislature has allocated $10 million dollars to Oregon State for athletic scholarships. And they have the expenses of running an athletic department. They are good for the next two years. After that, the future is unknown. I never said that they are going to fund another schools exit fee. You said that.

This is not correct. The exit agreement of the Pac-12 schools refers to the NCAA credits earned up to this year as pre-exit earnings which are deferred, and thus still the property of all 12 schools, split 1/12th to each school. There is no windfall. Wilner actually breaks down the credit payouts quite well. NCAA MBB credits are deferred 2024 and prior earnings, not future earnings. There is no windfall here for WSU and OSU.

ii. Future Revenue. No Departing Member shall have any claim to
distribution of any amount of Conference revenues earned, due to be paid or,
except as set forth in subclause (1) ofthis Section 2.a.ii, actually received in
Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Year 2026, or any subsequent Fiscal Year (including
without limitation, NCAA Basketball Performance Fund Unit distributions even if related to prior Fiscal Years) (collectively, “Future Revenue”).


No Departing Member shall have any claim to distribution of Conference revenues due to be paid in any future Fiscal Year (including NCAA tournament money)

Somethign called Delayed REvenue, which is separate from tournament money, is to be divided equally in 12 shares.

Incorrect. MBB credits are not considered 2025 or 2026 revenue, rather deferred revenue from prior years. Credits earned 2019-2024 are for those years, the payments delayed, as part of a rolling average. Payments in 2025 and 2026 are in fact considered 2024 and prior earnings deferred.

Relevant passage in the agreement (part ii, 1):
[Image: GJiCV8haoAApijC?format=png&name=small]

There will be zero new credits in 2025 and 2026 as any credits earned by Oregon State or Washington State contractually belong to the WCC for distribution, which they are not entitled to as associate members.

Let's get grammatical.

No Departing Member shall have any claim to distribution of any amount of Conference revenues
earned,
due to be paid or,
(except as set forth in subclause (1) ofthis Section 2.a.ii)
actually received in Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Year 2026, or any subsequent Fiscal Year
(including without limitation, NCAA Basketball Performance Fund Unit distributions even if related to prior Fiscal Years) (collectively, “Future Revenue”)


The way I read that, the relevant through-line is "No Departing memberr shall have any claim to distribution of any amount of Conference revenues earned, including without limitation, NCAA Basketball Performance Fund Unit distributions even if related to prior Fiscal Years"

I'm rearranging the order I admit, but if this clause were meant to split NCAA tournament money 12 ways, it would have done that. Instead it specifies the opposite. It even specifies that the departing schools have no claim to tournament money due to the PAC in 2025 for prior Fiscal Years.

So what ARE they talking about? Let's look at the language

Subclause 1 . Revenue received by the Conference after the end of Fiscal Year 2024 that
(y) was due to be paid to or expected to be received by the
Conference in Fiscal Year 2024 or a prior fiscal year or
(z) is a refund payable to the Conference for Fiscal Year 2024 or a prior Fiscal Year (“Delayed Revenue”)
is not Future Revenue and one-twelfth (1/12) of any Delayed Revenue
(less any expenses associated with such Delayed Revenue)
shall be distributed by the Conference to each Departing
Member on the last business day ofthe fiscal quarter in which it is
received.


"due to be / expected to be received by the Conference in Fiscal Year 2024 or a prior fiscal year"
That's not NCAA tournament credit money, that's money that is supposed to be showing up in the PAC-12's bank account this year. This sounds like insurance against contractors (cable companies maybe?) delaying payment on the PAC-12's invoices hoping that the PAC-12 will literally go away.

OR maybe it's about arbitration with how much exactly the Pac 12 Networks owe to Comcast--maybe the PAC really only owes Comcast $30M not $50M, and so after some arbitration and accountancy, Comcast ends up sending the PAC a check for $20M in a couple of years. That $20M is joint property, which gets split 12 ways.

(I have no idea if Comcast is sending the PAC $20, it's an example I made up.)
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2024 07:48 PM by johnbragg.)
04-01-2024 07:46 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #127
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
MBB credits are delayed payments. It's that simple. They are split 1/12th.

I think you need to read up on how the NCAA distributes Basketball credits. You have a fundamental misunderstanding.
04-02-2024 03:43 AM
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clunk Offline
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Post: #128
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-02-2024 03:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  MBB credits are delayed payments. It's that simple. They are split 1/12th.

I think you need to read up on how the NCAA distributes Basketball credits. You have a fundamental misunderstanding.
This is hilariously ironic. NCAA pays MBB credits to the conference then is completely hands off. PAC is NOT paying 1/12th splits after this year. Simply not going to happen.
I suspect they won't even pay a 2 way split. Since that ~$16M is paid to the conference, they'll probably need all of it to pay their own bills with nothing left to distribute to the members.
Rose Bowl won't be cutting checks to the PAC after this year and no amount of hack journalism or arguing on the internet will change that.
04-02-2024 09:15 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #129
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-02-2024 03:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  MBB credits are delayed payments. It's that simple. They are split 1/12th.

I think you need to read up on how the NCAA distributes Basketball credits. You have a fundamental misunderstanding.

I think you need to read the screenshot you posted.
04-02-2024 10:54 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #130
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-02-2024 03:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  MBB credits are delayed payments. It's that simple. They are split 1/12th.

I think you need to read up on how the NCAA distributes Basketball credits. You have a fundamental misunderstanding.

You really do need to read your own screenshot.

No departing member shall have any claim on any amount of Conference revenues:
  • earned,
  • due to be paid, or
  • actually received, except as set out in a clause defining Delayed revenue
... in future FYs.

The underlined dot point is the NCAA unit revenue ... the NCAA unit revenue due to be paid in this FY is part of the current distribution, the NCAA unit revenue due to be paid in future FY's are part of the income under the control of the PAC2.

The "Delayed revenue" specified Revenue due to be paid, or expected to be received in the current FY or earlier, that happens to in fact be received in a following FY.

It is unambiguous that NCAA units are earned in this or previous FY and due to be paid in future FY are clearly not "Delayed Revenue" as defined in the screenshot text.

One of the things the "Delayed revenue" clause is in there is to avoid the PAC2 telling people who owe money to the conference "it's OK if you postpone the payment until Q4", to shift revenues from this fiscal year to the next one ... that money would have to be divided up twelve ways anyway. It's not about the NCAA unit income, which under the phrasing would not qualify as revenue that has been "delayed" past its expected payment date.
(This post was last modified: 04-03-2024 09:26 AM by BruceMcF.)
04-02-2024 02:37 PM
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billings Offline
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Post: #131
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-01-2024 12:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-31-2024 06:07 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wilner did the math on the money available to WSU and OSU (https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/30/p...ference/). It's behind a paywall. He goes into the specific details of each item on the list. The snippet below is his summary of the calculations is here for the money available to OSU and WSU for 2024-26:

Quote:That said, the "Pac-2" schools have a substantial amount of cash available from their four primary revenue streams.

Conference withholdings: $65 million
CFP payouts: $24 million (approx.)
Rose Bowl: $100 million (approx.)
NCAA units: $33 million
The grand total during the critical 24-month window: roughly $222 million.

What he didn't calculate is the lost revenue and new expenses that the "Pac-2" will incur during these two years which they would not have had the Pac-12 continued, and which their budgets were built for.

First and foremost Oregon State and Washington State are not receiving their normal Pac-12 distributions, which last reported were $37M per school in 2021-22 (https://pac-12.com/article/2023/05/19/pa...-results). Even if we leave that revenue total flat it's loss in 2024-25 and 2025-26 comes to around $150M in revenue for the two schools.

Note, there is significant overhead in the Pac-12 operation. We will assume, for the sake of simplicity, that expenses to produce events for the WCC and for the CW regional TV deal will more or less be equal amounts, cancelling each other out.

Additionally, these two schools are paying the Mountain West $14M for the scheduling agreement for the 2024 football season (https://apnews.com/article/conference-re...f4b6de94). It is reasonable to assume this will be repeated in 2025. Additionally, the schools will pay the WCC $580,000 a year or $1.16M for two years affiliate sports membership (and receive no MBB or other credits).

The rough total lost Pac-12 distributions revenue and increased expenses is roughly $179M over the coming two years. The "War Chest" of extra money coming in from the Pac-12 is $222M (Wilner's summary). The net difference is ~$43M for the two schools, or around $22M per school rounding up. At best this buys the schools one additional year (2026-27) of survival without cutting budgets way back to G5 level --which would be waving the white flag for ever getting back in an autonomous conference--. There certainly isn't enough extra to fund adding schools to the Pac-12, not when it will cost you over $10M a pop in payments to the Mountain West.

In reality, Washington State will have to make a decision on G5 by 2026, as a chunk of their windfall will no doubt be absorbed to offset the budget deficits, both athletic and institutional. Oregon State has a $10M annual subsidy coming from the State of Oregon to help with athletic scholarships, and no major debt problem. That alone should push the crisis point out to 2028 for the Beavers.

Bottom line it's near impossible for WSU to not join a conference (MWC) in 2026 and not reduce their budget to G5 level. For Oregon State, some frugal financing can stretch their window out as much as three more years, with 2029 being their cracking point. There simply isn't any extra money for a Pac-12 rebuild.

How many times do we need to say these things:

1) Wilner and Canzano aren't reliable on these sorts of things; and
2) There is NO Rose Bowl payout the next two years.

There has never been a payout when it was part of the playoff. There will be no Rose, no Sugar, no Orange payout.

From an OSU board.
The Rose Bowl contract is set. Disney is set to pay the Pac-12 $50 million per year through the Rose Bowl. That is one of the things that was secured back, when the playoff expanded from four teams to 12 teams. ESPN still has to pay the Big Ten and Pac-12 for the final two years of the contract, regardless of whether a Big Ten or Pac-2 team plays there or not.
04-03-2024 01:52 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Offline
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Post: #132
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-03-2024 01:52 PM)billings Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-31-2024 06:07 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wilner did the math on the money available to WSU and OSU (https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/30/p...ference/). It's behind a paywall. He goes into the specific details of each item on the list. The snippet below is his summary of the calculations is here for the money available to OSU and WSU for 2024-26:

Quote:That said, the "Pac-2" schools have a substantial amount of cash available from their four primary revenue streams.

Conference withholdings: $65 million
CFP payouts: $24 million (approx.)
Rose Bowl: $100 million (approx.)
NCAA units: $33 million
The grand total during the critical 24-month window: roughly $222 million.

What he didn't calculate is the lost revenue and new expenses that the "Pac-2" will incur during these two years which they would not have had the Pac-12 continued, and which their budgets were built for.

First and foremost Oregon State and Washington State are not receiving their normal Pac-12 distributions, which last reported were $37M per school in 2021-22 (https://pac-12.com/article/2023/05/19/pa...-results). Even if we leave that revenue total flat it's loss in 2024-25 and 2025-26 comes to around $150M in revenue for the two schools.

Note, there is significant overhead in the Pac-12 operation. We will assume, for the sake of simplicity, that expenses to produce events for the WCC and for the CW regional TV deal will more or less be equal amounts, cancelling each other out.

Additionally, these two schools are paying the Mountain West $14M for the scheduling agreement for the 2024 football season (https://apnews.com/article/conference-re...f4b6de94). It is reasonable to assume this will be repeated in 2025. Additionally, the schools will pay the WCC $580,000 a year or $1.16M for two years affiliate sports membership (and receive no MBB or other credits).

The rough total lost Pac-12 distributions revenue and increased expenses is roughly $179M over the coming two years. The "War Chest" of extra money coming in from the Pac-12 is $222M (Wilner's summary). The net difference is ~$43M for the two schools, or around $22M per school rounding up. At best this buys the schools one additional year (2026-27) of survival without cutting budgets way back to G5 level --which would be waving the white flag for ever getting back in an autonomous conference--. There certainly isn't enough extra to fund adding schools to the Pac-12, not when it will cost you over $10M a pop in payments to the Mountain West.

In reality, Washington State will have to make a decision on G5 by 2026, as a chunk of their windfall will no doubt be absorbed to offset the budget deficits, both athletic and institutional. Oregon State has a $10M annual subsidy coming from the State of Oregon to help with athletic scholarships, and no major debt problem. That alone should push the crisis point out to 2028 for the Beavers.

Bottom line it's near impossible for WSU to not join a conference (MWC) in 2026 and not reduce their budget to G5 level. For Oregon State, some frugal financing can stretch their window out as much as three more years, with 2029 being their cracking point. There simply isn't any extra money for a Pac-12 rebuild.

How many times do we need to say these things:

1) Wilner and Canzano aren't reliable on these sorts of things; and
2) There is NO Rose Bowl payout the next two years.

There has never been a payout when it was part of the playoff. There will be no Rose, no Sugar, no Orange payout.

From an OSU board.
The Rose Bowl contract is set. Disney is set to pay the Pac-12 $50 million per year through the Rose Bowl. That is one of the things that was secured back, when the playoff expanded from four teams to 12 teams. ESPN still has to pay the Big Ten and Pac-12 for the final two years of the contract, regardless of whether a Big Ten or Pac-2 team plays there or not.

Thanks for that, but was it just an assertion by an OSU poster, or did the board post include a link to a legitimate unbiased media source confirming the information? So far I'm seeing a lot of claims on both sides of this question but no proof anywhere.
04-03-2024 04:31 PM
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billings Offline
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Post: #133
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-03-2024 04:31 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(04-03-2024 01:52 PM)billings Wrote:  
(04-01-2024 12:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-31-2024 06:07 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wilner did the math on the money available to WSU and OSU (https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/30/p...ference/). It's behind a paywall. He goes into the specific details of each item on the list. The snippet below is his summary of the calculations is here for the money available to OSU and WSU for 2024-26:

Quote:That said, the "Pac-2" schools have a substantial amount of cash available from their four primary revenue streams.

Conference withholdings: $65 million
CFP payouts: $24 million (approx.)
Rose Bowl: $100 million (approx.)
NCAA units: $33 million
The grand total during the critical 24-month window: roughly $222 million.

What he didn't calculate is the lost revenue and new expenses that the "Pac-2" will incur during these two years which they would not have had the Pac-12 continued, and which their budgets were built for.

First and foremost Oregon State and Washington State are not receiving their normal Pac-12 distributions, which last reported were $37M per school in 2021-22 (https://pac-12.com/article/2023/05/19/pa...-results). Even if we leave that revenue total flat it's loss in 2024-25 and 2025-26 comes to around $150M in revenue for the two schools.

Note, there is significant overhead in the Pac-12 operation. We will assume, for the sake of simplicity, that expenses to produce events for the WCC and for the CW regional TV deal will more or less be equal amounts, cancelling each other out.

Additionally, these two schools are paying the Mountain West $14M for the scheduling agreement for the 2024 football season (https://apnews.com/article/conference-re...f4b6de94). It is reasonable to assume this will be repeated in 2025. Additionally, the schools will pay the WCC $580,000 a year or $1.16M for two years affiliate sports membership (and receive no MBB or other credits).

The rough total lost Pac-12 distributions revenue and increased expenses is roughly $179M over the coming two years. The "War Chest" of extra money coming in from the Pac-12 is $222M (Wilner's summary). The net difference is ~$43M for the two schools, or around $22M per school rounding up. At best this buys the schools one additional year (2026-27) of survival without cutting budgets way back to G5 level --which would be waving the white flag for ever getting back in an autonomous conference--. There certainly isn't enough extra to fund adding schools to the Pac-12, not when it will cost you over $10M a pop in payments to the Mountain West.

In reality, Washington State will have to make a decision on G5 by 2026, as a chunk of their windfall will no doubt be absorbed to offset the budget deficits, both athletic and institutional. Oregon State has a $10M annual subsidy coming from the State of Oregon to help with athletic scholarships, and no major debt problem. That alone should push the crisis point out to 2028 for the Beavers.

Bottom line it's near impossible for WSU to not join a conference (MWC) in 2026 and not reduce their budget to G5 level. For Oregon State, some frugal financing can stretch their window out as much as three more years, with 2029 being their cracking point. There simply isn't any extra money for a Pac-12 rebuild.

How many times do we need to say these things:

1) Wilner and Canzano aren't reliable on these sorts of things; and
2) There is NO Rose Bowl payout the next two years.

There has never been a payout when it was part of the playoff. There will be no Rose, no Sugar, no Orange payout.

From an OSU board.
The Rose Bowl contract is set. Disney is set to pay the Pac-12 $50 million per year through the Rose Bowl. That is one of the things that was secured back, when the playoff expanded from four teams to 12 teams. ESPN still has to pay the Big Ten and Pac-12 for the final two years of the contract, regardless of whether a Big Ten or Pac-2 team plays there or not.

Thanks for that, but was it just an assertion by an OSU poster, or did the board post include a link to a legitimate unbiased media source confirming the information? So far I'm seeing a lot of claims on both sides of this question but no proof anywhere.


Just the Wilner article
04-03-2024 05:06 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #134
RE: Wilner: PAC-2 vs Departing 10 settlement is out.
(04-03-2024 04:31 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(04-03-2024 01:52 PM)billings Wrote:  ... From an OSU board.
The Rose Bowl contract is set. Disney is set to pay the Pac-12 $50 million per year through the Rose Bowl. That is one of the things that was secured back, when the playoff expanded from four teams to 12 teams. ESPN still has to pay the Big Ten and Pac-12 for the final two years of the contract, regardless of whether a Big Ten or Pac-2 team plays there or not.

Thanks for that, but was it just an assertion by an OSU poster, or did the board post include a link to a legitimate unbiased media source confirming the information? So far I'm seeing a lot of claims on both sides of this question but no proof anywhere.

It's clear that the Rose Bowl / Sugar Bowl / Orange Bowl payments to participants for NY6, Non-CFP bowl games had to be sorted out before the CFP12 could go ahead.

Since the CFP12 is going ahead, we can infer that they were sorted out.

It is plausible that the deal which sorted them out involved a payment to replace the contracted conference revenue of the guaranteed participation payments, but until we have clearer reporting on the CFP12 deal we might have to leave it at plausible-but-unproven.

It's not unusual for the initial reporting on a deal to give the broad outlines as reporters are basically all finding different ways to paraphrase the press releases, and then clearer reporting eventually comes out as reporters do some actual follow-up reporting. That follow-up reporting might have been shouldered aside in the short term by reporting on the negotiations over the deal that starts in 2026.
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2024 02:47 PM by BruceMcF.)
04-04-2024 02:42 PM
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