(03-18-2024 04:25 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  Before the crazies come in spouting their nonsense, as long as the AAC continues to have the top markets and academics they will be head and shoulders above the G4. Even without powerhouse programs like Tulane and Memphis, the markets are still there which is literally all anybody cares about. Adding army sealed the prestige factor and it’s not even close. Nobody can name more than three Sun Belt or MAC programs and literally nobody watches the mountain west. The AAC will always be in its own category, separated far and away from the G4 no matter who is in the conference.

I can name more than three SBC programs:

Troy
South Alabama
Southern Miss
App State
Louisiana
Marshall
James Madison
ULM
Old Dominion
Arkansas State
Coastal Carolina
Texas State

MAC

Akron
NIU
CMU
WMU
Kent St
EMU
Ball State
Bowling Green
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Toledo
UMass
Buffalo

How did I do?? And that's from memory, btw

(03-18-2024 06:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:36 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 05:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 04:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-18-2024 04:25 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  Before the crazies come in spouting their nonsense, as long as the AAC continues to have the top markets and academics they will be head and shoulders above the G4. Even without powerhouse programs like Tulane and Memphis, the markets are still there which is literally all anybody cares about. Adding army sealed the prestige factor and it’s not even close. Nobody can name more than three Sun Belt or MAC programs and literally nobody watches the mountain west. The AAC will always be in its own category, separated far and away from the G4 no matter who is in the conference.

IMO, the AAC always has always been and now more than ever is just another G5 conference.

For a long while, we were the clear-cut #1 G5 conference on the football field, though not by all that much over the MW.

Now, we're not even that anymore. That was IMO demonstrated a year or two ago when we failed to attract any MW schools. If I were running an SBC school these days I wouldn't advise my board to jump from the SB to the AAC.

Right. You should stay in the SBC making 1/3 the revenue with a bunch of lower profile schools that are mostly not near any major airport and with the exception of football, baseball and maybe 1 or 2 other sports are far behind athletically.

What happens when the AAC contract runs out? Are you sure it will still be triple the SBC then?


The bolded quote reminds me of "Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln"?


Football - the main driver. In 2023, SBC was better than the AAC. Will that last, or will the AAC rebound?

Basketball - the AAC's bread and butter - the AAC needed a miracle to get a second team in - gap is closing

Baseball - SBC >>>>>> AAC


What other sport are you hanging the AAC hat on? For Women's basketball, all the G5 conferences only got one team in, lead by UNLV with a 10-seed. MTSU is an 11-seed, Marshall a 13-seed, Rice a 14-seed, Kent a 15-seed.

AAC and Sun Belt both have good baseball programs. They are probably equivalent.
Rice and Wichita St. each have 7 CWS appearances and a title, although its been a few years for either school. That's 15th, behind only CS-Fullerton among non-P4 teams. Only Coastal Carolina has been there of the Sun Belt teams.

As for basketball, Massey composite, the AAC is 9th, behind the P6, MWC and A10. CUSA 15th, Sun Belt 17th, MAC 22nd.

Currently, the SBC has three ranked teams, AAC one.

Men's Soccer - SBC >>> AAC

If the last round of realignment taught us anything, we saw that, when the tv money is about the same, it’s worth it to save the travel money and regionalize—or at least that’s the conclusion Marshall, ODU, and USM reached.

Does it really make sense for ODU or GA St to leave a division where a whole lot of bus travel is possible, for one where the revenue is the same but the travel budget is higher?

MTSU, FIU, WKU, and LA Tech would take invites to the AAC in a heartbeat but they don’t exactly meet the profile of the type of school the AAC usually goes for. They’d also probably among the lowest athletic budgets.

If its just Memphis and USF that leaves the AAC with 12 and they don't really have to rebuild if they don't want.

3 or more and it becomes problematic for the AAC, IMO.

(03-18-2024 04:25 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  Before the crazies come in spouting their nonsense, as long as the AAC continues to have the top markets and academics they will be head and shoulders above the G4. Even without powerhouse programs like Tulane and Memphis, the markets are still there which is literally all anybody cares about. Adding army sealed the prestige factor and it’s not even close. Nobody can name more than three Sun Belt or MAC programs and literally nobody watches the mountain west. The AAC will always be in its own category, separated far and away from the G4 no matter who is in the conference.

One last thing and it has to do with the bold: if marketz were the only thing that even your AAC cared about, Florida International would have been snatched up a looooonnnggg time ago!!! You do know that FIU is in Miami, FL, right??? Wichita State would have never made it into the AAC if only marketz truly mattered. And East Carolina would have been forced out a loooooonnnnggg time ago. Again, I'm only thinking in terms of marketz.

Better yet, thewavefan, if marketz truly mattered to Tulane, they would have never left the SEC to begin with !!! That Tulane did leave the SEC is something of a paradox.

When they add FSU and Miami!!

The AAC had a down year in hoops with Memphis's crash and burn. Had Memphis finished strong that would've been a third NCAA bid. I may be in the minority but I think the newbies added some strong hoops programs and if Wichita St can ever get its act together...Football remains good and this past season was the first one in a long time that the league didn't claim the NY6 bid. The jury is still out with what the newbies bring on the gridiron. I do agree that a few more defections will make it harder to stay toward the top amongst the non-power leagues. That's what made Mike Aresco retire LOL...his conference kept getting raided since he took over the helm.

At what point is the AAC no longer the most attractive Eastern US G5?

That would be the point at which it becomes the P2 and G8, namely this fall. The ACC will be the most attractive eastern Gx.

(03-18-2024 04:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The AAC’s value is largely the product of the service academies and its legacy (pre-2023) members Temple, ECU, USF, Tulsa, Memphis, and Tulane.

By the next tv contract negotiation, there’s a good chance that some of those legacy schools (particularly USF but potentially Tulane and Memphis) be gone. The loss of even just 2 of these will have a huge negative impact on the league’s valuation.

The non-legacy schools don’t make radically more than say an SBC school and with the AAC losing a lot of the schools from the “P6” campaign, I have to think that the next time the AAC is up for contact, there’s not going to be a lot distinguishing them from the other G leagues. I’m not sure that programs will want to pay huge exit fees in order to move to the AAC.

So what happens when that advantage evaporates? Does the MWC lure away part of the Western wing? Do they downsize to 12 or even 10 members? Are they forced to make an agreement with the SBC that would see their members shuffled into more regional leagues?

I think the AAC is the most valuable G5 until the PAC2 & MWC create the PacMtn or whatever it is called. That will put the AAC as #2. However there is a scenario where FSU gets out of the GOR and joins the Big in 2026 and Clemson or Miami or both of them to join them in the Big.

The ACC could/would add USF and Oregon State. At that point the MWC would just absorb Wazzu and the AAC still is King of G5.

For example the ACC can lose 4 mbrs before it has to add 1 and the following schools are ready for an invite:

Oregon St
Washington St
USF
UConn

Teams that could also get an invite:
UTAH
Colorado St

However there is a good chance that only FSU ( and maybe 1 other team) leave and the ACC doesn't add anyone, thus PacMtn becomes a reality:

The problem with assuming multiple ACC schools leaving, if they at least pay the $130M exit fee, is seen in a simple financial analysis. (remember that the negotiated settlement may be higher than 130M)

If 2 were already gone, that's an extra (2 x $130M)/(15-2) = $260/13 = $20M per remaining school.

Would school #3 pass that up, pay the $130M exit fee themselves, and hope for a better payout?

The more schools leave, the bigger the pot and the fewer schools to divide it...

Is it worthwhile to be the 4th school to leave, rather than keep your share of (3 x $130M)/(15-3) = $390M/12 = $32.5M?

What about the 5th to leave; do they pass on (4 x $130M)/(15-4) = $520M/11 = $47.3M each?

The 6th school to leave is looking at (5 x $130M)/(15-5) = $650M/10 = $65M if they stay, or they can pay $130M and probably get reduced shares for several years if they go.

Again the ACC has to lose four teams before it has to add 1. So if FSU is the only team that leaves; the ACC could decide to stay at 16 + ND, and the AAC is King of G5!

Link
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2024/...xodus.html

The AAC and Aresco live rent free in the heads of conferences both "above" and "below" the AAC.

Also, this talk about the AAC not building for stability is moronic. There are exactly 2 stable leagues, the B1G and the SEC. The other P leagues are only as stable as those 2 allow them to be, and same below that the AAC/MWC/everyone else is only as stable as the other P leagues allow them to be. The AAC lost the most members to the P leagues because it had the most valuable and obvious candidates for backfills. So the serious argument is they should have added lesser members in 2013/14 so they wouldn't have been a threat to be raided in the future? Is someone seriously arguing if the AAC was a tight geographic conference with a "cohesive identity" that the schools that got B12 invites would have turned them down? No, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to believe that. The AAC will cease to be the most "attractive eastern US G5" when schools leave the AAC for another G5 league. Will that day come? Maybe, maybe not who knows. However, this board obsesses with the idea that the AAC is just 1 lost member away from dissolving, and it's complete nonsense. The PAC2 continues to someone live on with 2 members. C-USA got down to 4 members with not a whole lot in the way of an exit fee War Chest and survived. The AAC is not going to die, it's not going to dissolve, even if it gets raided again in the near future there will be another massive chunk of exit fees thrown into the already massive pot that ensure it's still more valuable for those left behind to stay together than to join the Sun-Belt or whatever other non-Power options are out there (setting aside again you'd have to pay 10+ million just to try one of those options).

Per the last 990 filing the AAC has basically 100 million in Net Assets on hand, 51 million of that coming from the initial payment of the exit fees of the departing 4 members. They'll get another chunk from SMU (not sure what that amount will be yet but it will be a lot) and that money will get distributed out to the members over time. If they lost another 4-6 members that would be another 50-80 million that would come into the league immediately, which the remaining members would have to forfeit their share of and pay their own exit fee if they wanted to bolt to another G5 league (which none of them pay enough to justify that type of move currently even if you assume another raid would finally gut the AAC TV deal).


https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofi...00429/full

(03-19-2024 07:30 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The AAC and Aresco live rent free in the heads of conferences both "above" and "below" the AAC.

Also, this talk about the AAC not building for stability is moronic. There are exactly 2 stable leagues, the B1G and the SEC. The other P leagues are only as stable as those 2 allow them to be, and same below that the AAC/MWC/everyone else is only as stable as the other P leagues allow them to be. The AAC lost the most members to the P leagues because it had the most valuable and obvious candidates for backfills. So the serious argument is they should have added lesser members in 2013/14 so they wouldn't have been a threat to be raided in the future? Is someone seriously arguing if the AAC was a tight geographic conference with a "cohesive identity" that the schools that got B12 invites would have turned them down? No, I don't think anyone is stupid enough to believe that. The AAC will cease to be the most "attractive eastern US G5" when schools leave the AAC for another G5 league. Will that day come? Maybe, maybe not who knows. However, this board obsesses with the idea that the AAC is just 1 lost member away from dissolving, and it's complete nonsense. The PAC2 continues to someone live on with 2 members. C-USA got down to 4 members with not a whole lot in the way of an exit fee War Chest and survived. The AAC is not going to die, it's not going to dissolve, even if it gets raided again in the near future there will be another massive chunk of exit fees thrown into the pot that ensure it's still more valuable for those left behind to stay together than to join the Sun-Belt or whatever other non-Power options are out there (setting aside again you'd have to pay 10+ million just to try one of those options).

Good post, and rep points for you. My thought these past few days was “at what point do the AAC haters stop making threads up”?

(03-18-2024 09:40 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  Better yet, thewavefan, if marketz truly mattered to Tulane, they would have never left the SEC to begin with !!! That Tulane did leave the SEC is something of a paradox.

What are you sippin' on?

Not that they mattered then anyway, but the SEC didn't have any marketz in the 60's (GaTech left) and Nashville was a scary dump.

It's totally not a paradox or mystery of any kind. Tulane didn't agree with the Thunderdome style guidelines the SEC operated under lol

(03-19-2024 01:20 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  That would be the point at which it becomes the P2 and G8, namely this fall. The ACC will be the most attractive eastern Gx.

There is a big difference between the ACC and Big XII vs the G5 not only on a performance level, but monetarily as well.

(03-19-2024 07:59 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-19-2024 01:20 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  That would be the point at which it becomes the P2 and G8, namely this fall. The ACC will be the most attractive eastern Gx.

There is a big difference between the ACC and Big XII vs the G5 not only on a performance level, but monetarily as well.

There is. There is also a large gap in money between the MWC and CUSA. They are both still "G" conferences.

I don't think the ACC or Big XII will become a "G" conference overnight and they will likely remain above the other G conferences in pecking order.

BUT you might see them stuck on the outside looking in with the rest of us some day.

The fact that the initial post in this thread and half of them after, relies on more members of the AAC leaving for power conference spots to diminish the conference, just continues to prove that the American Athletic Conference is the stepping stone to the power conferences and thus, rightfully or not, the perceived better conference. It's members make more money, have more visibility, and spend the most on athletics in hopes to be next in line for a lucrative call-up. This will continue to be the case as newer members step up and fill the spots vacated by the already called up, raising their profiles and keeping the pecking order going, as long as the television partners continue to pay them for being that tweener power member builder conference.

(03-19-2024 08:32 AM)freshtop Wrote:  

(03-19-2024 07:59 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-19-2024 01:20 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  That would be the point at which it becomes the P2 and G8, namely this fall. The ACC will be the most attractive eastern Gx.

There is a big difference between the ACC and Big XII vs the G5 not only on a performance level, but monetarily as well.

There is. There is also a large gap in money between the MWC and CUSA. They are both still "G" conferences.

I don't think the ACC or Big XII will become a "G" conference overnight and they will likely remain above the other G conferences in pecking order.
BUT you might see them stuck on the outside looking in with the rest of us some day.

Possible but not real likely. I see any break off taking 1 or both of ACC and B12.
If ACC was hit real hard lets say 6 or 8 to SEC/Big and 4 more to B12 then 3 league split works great. 4 leagues and 80 ish schools works ok as well.
The break aways need enough content to dominate the good timeslots 4o to 48 schools isn't enough 60 to 80 is.

Is the AAC really an "eastern" conference? There's one in Kansas, one in Oklahoma and 3 in Texas. There really isn't an "eastern" G5 conference imho. Either way the AAC has pretty much become a train wreck with the exception of Tulane, Memphis, USF, Army and Navy. Little brand awareness and tiny fanbases for the most part. My school isn't really helping either except in baseball.

(03-19-2024 08:51 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  The fact that the initial post in this thread and half of them after, relies on more members of the AAC leaving for power conference spots to diminish the conference, just continues to prove that the American Athletic Conference is the stepping stone to the power conferences and thus, rightfully or not, the perceived better conference. It's members make more money, have more visibility, and spend the most on athletics in hopes to be next in line for a lucrative call-up. This will continue to be the case as newer members step up and fill the spots vacated by the already called up, raising their profiles and keeping the pecking order going, as long as the television partners continue to pay them for being that tweener power member builder conference.

Spot-on post.

(03-19-2024 09:05 AM)b2b Wrote:  Is the AAC really an "eastern" conference? There's one in Kansas, one in Oklahoma and 3 in Texas. There really isn't an "eastern" G5 conference imho. Either way the AAC has pretty much become a train wreck with the exception of Tulane, Memphis, USF, Army and Navy. Little brand awareness and tiny fanbases for the most part. My school isn't really helping either except in baseball.

Okay, and what G5 league has good brand awareness and good size fan bases across the league as a whole?

(03-19-2024 08:32 AM)freshtop Wrote:  

(03-19-2024 07:59 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-19-2024 01:20 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  That would be the point at which it becomes the P2 and G8, namely this fall. The ACC will be the most attractive eastern Gx.

There is a big difference between the ACC and Big XII vs the G5 not only on a performance level, but monetarily as well.

There is. There is also a large gap in money between the MWC and CUSA. They are both still "G" conferences.

I don't think the ACC or Big XII will become a "G" conference overnight and they will likely remain above the other G conferences in pecking order.

BUT you might see them stuck on the outside looking in with the rest of us some day.

The gap between the MWC and CUSA is about like the gap between the Pac 12/Big East and the CUSA/MWC back in BCS days. But with the huge gap between the P4 and AAC/MWC, it doesn't seem like much. And remember, the MWC was close to making the BCS qualifications. They simply had too much dead weight at the bottom. But at the top, they were slightly outperforming the Big 10 and ACC. So like last year, a CUSA team rose to the top of the G5. But I don't think we will see non power Boises or TCUs or Utahs or Cincinnatis ranked in the top 4 or 5 now. The money gap is just too big.