Heather Dinich and Pete Thamel of ESPN report:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ayoff-deal

Why do the “P2” conferences allow ND to continue to call their own shots? Have y’all looked at their schedule for next season??? It’s a terrible schedule to be included with what the SEC has to go through..

Quote: The Big Ten and SEC will combine to earn about 58% of the CFP’s base distribution (29% each). The figure would greatly exceed the ACC and Big 12’s combined distribution number, which is expected to be around 32%. The ACC will get 17.1% while the Big 12 receives 14.7%. The remaining amount (roughly 10%) will be distributed to Notre Dame and the 64 Group of Five teams.

P2 Split Avoided.

Yormark got to keep his 2028 “look-in” provision.

The 17.1% and 14.7% are very precise figures. I haven't been able to figure out how they came up with that split for the ACC and Big 12.

The nACC had a lot more CFP participants. The nBig 12 had slightly more participants in a CFP era 12 or CFP era 14 (in a 5/9 model). The 29% for the nBig 10 and nSEC are easier. Each would have 30% of CFP 14 participants and the Big 10 had 30.8% and SEC 29.2% of CFP 12 participants. For CFP 12 Big 12 would have 15.8% of CFP 12 and ACC 12.5%. For CFP 14 it would be 15.7% and 14.3% (a combined 30%).

There was one way I actually came up with the differential. If you looked at a BCS/CFP 14 over the 26 years the per school differential comes out the same. But everything they have said was that they only looked at the CFP era. But if they did:
ACC 58 participants in a 14 team playoff 1998-2023
Big 12 53 participants
58/53 = 1.0943
ACC 17.1/17 members=1.0059
Big 12 14.7/16 members=0.9188
Big 12 0.9188 X 58/53 X 17 members=17.1%

But I think that is just a coincidence. No idea how they really came up with it.

(03-15-2024 11:46 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Why do the “P2” conferences allow ND to continue to call their own shots? Have y’all looked at their schedule for next season??? It’s a terrible schedule to be included with what the SEC has to go through..

Someone here (probably Frank The Tank) pointed out that it's better to keep Notre Dame in limbo rather than forcing them to make a conference move that might hurt either the B1G or ACC, and the Big XII and SEC are absolutely happy for ND to never choose either.

Just thought of one more possible way. They may have compared TV contracts. If you assume 35 million for ACC including ACCN and 32 million for Big 12, that difference is 9.375%.

"...The commissioners and Notre Dame agreed that the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 and the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion would earn playoff berths, and Notre Dame will have protections that will survive regardless of the ultimate format. With those ironclad guarantees, the other commissioners and Notre Dame leadership surrendered the bulk of the control over the format to the SEC and Big Ten as "part of the give-and-take," according to a source...."

What give and take??? The SEC and Big 10 got the maximum revenue they could justify without pulling out entirely. What did the SEC and Big 10 give? The top two seeds was absurd. That wasn't a give. They apparently have control over the format so they haven't given up on 4-4-2-2-1-1 or 3-3-2-2-1-3.

The difference between the ACC and Big XII probably comes down to the ACC's perceived power over the Big XII. It's small, but they made sure they got more.

Interesting that this deal is less performance-based. Not sure the B1G and SEC will care how many AQs they get. The AQ fight might have been "fake" all along just to ensure the B1G and SEC got their guaranteed money.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-college...30007.html
This is another article on the agreement.

(03-15-2024 11:46 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Why do the “P2” conferences allow ND to continue to call their own shots? Have y’all looked at their schedule for next season??? It’s a terrible schedule to be included with what the SEC has to go through..

Because they bring eyeballs. And they really did not get their full share, being lumped in with the average of the ACC (a tiny tick below), when in reality they should be more like and SEC or B1G take given their drawing power.

And drawing power seems to have been the criteria explaining why the Big 12 only gets ~91% of what the ACC gets on a per team basis. The conference networks explain the relative power dynamic:

(03-15-2024 11:51 AM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:46 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Why do the “P2” conferences allow ND to continue to call their own shots? Have y’all looked at their schedule for next season??? It’s a terrible schedule to be included with what the SEC has to go through..

Someone here (probably Frank The Tank) pointed out that it's better to keep Notre Dame in limbo rather than forcing them to make a conference move that might hurt either the B1G or ACC, and the Big XII and SEC are absolutely happy for ND to never choose either.

Yeah. It's ND's desire to remain independent as long as they have reasonable access to the playoff, it's in the ACC's interest to keep ND where they are obviously, it's in the SEC's interest to keep ND where they are and out of the B1G, and the B1G doesn't want to piss ND off. The only Conference that could possibly want ND to leave the ACC and also be willing to piss them off in the process is the Big 12, but Yormark just has nobody else with the same motivation. He'll be opportunistic about it in the future though, I have no doubt.

(03-15-2024 12:00 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Yeah. It's ND's desire to remain independent as long as they have reasonable access to the playoff, it's in the ACC's interest to keep ND where they are obviously, it's in the SEC's interest to keep ND where they are and out of the B1G, and the B1G doesn't want to piss ND off. The only Conference that could possibly want ND to leave the ACC and also be willing to piss them off in the process is the Big 12, but Yormark just has nobody else with the same motivation. He'll be opportunistic about it in the future though, I have no doubt.

Good point about the Big XII: they are the incentivized to hurt the ACC, but probably not enough to risk major realignment upheaval. The SEC potentially gains easy ACC expansion if Notre Dame commits to the B1G, however, because that assumes a jailbreak from the GoR. So if the SEC wants FSU, maybe pushing Notre Dame to the B1G isn't so bad. But again, the SEC probably doesn't want to provoke realignment madness, they'd prefer to be the ones to make a first move in a highly controlled way.

1.3 Billion

SEC = 29.0% = $377.0 M (Annual)
16 teams = $23,562,500 (Per Team Annual)

B1G 29.0% = $377.0 M (Annual)
18 teams = $20,944,444 (Per Team Annual)

ACC 17.1% = $222.3 M (Annual)
17 teams = $13,076,471 (Per Team Annual)

B12 14.7% = $191.1 M (Annual)
16 teams = $11,943,750 (Per Team Annual)

Gap between SEC per team per year:
B1G: $2,618,056
ACC: $10,486,029
B12: $11,618,750

Gap between B1G per team per year:
ACC: $7,867,974
B12: $9,000,694

Gap between ACC per team per year:
B12: $1,132,721

(03-15-2024 11:56 AM)Eichorst Wrote:  The difference between the ACC and Big XII probably comes down to the ACC's perceived power over the Big XII. It's small, but they made sure they got more.

Yeah, Dr. Jim just laying down the goon hand on lil' Yormark

(03-15-2024 11:49 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

Quote: The Big Ten and SEC will combine to earn about 58% of the CFP’s base distribution (29% each). The figure would greatly exceed the ACC and Big 12’s combined distribution number, which is expected to be around 32%. The ACC will get 17.1% while the Big 12 receives 14.7%. The remaining amount (roughly 10%) will be distributed to Notre Dame and the 64 Group of Five teams.

P2 Split Avoided.

Yormark got to keep his 2028 “look-in” provision.

The revenue distributions do appear to be reasonably based on the likely number of appearances in the CFP by the newly realigned conferences. Looking at the last 10 years, with the newly realigned 2024-25 conference members, I calculate the following breakdown of CFP and NY6 appearances by conference:

SEC: 17 CFP, 22 other NY6
B1G: 12 CFP, 26 other NY6
ACC: 7 CFP, 10 other NY6
B12: 2 CFP, 15 other NY6
G5: 0 CFP, 5 other NY6
IND: 2 CFP, 2 other NY6

Using the CFP final rankings over the past 10 years, with the 2024-25 conference members, assuming a 14 team playoff, and assuming 5 autobids, I retroactively calculated the following new CFP bids by conference:

SEC: 42
B1G: 42
ACC: 20
B12: 22
G5: 10
IND: 4

Finally, assuming the two automatic byes go to the two highest ranked conference champions, the following is the breakdown of byes by conference:

SEC: 10
B1G: 5
ACC: 5
B12: 0
G5: 0

If someone plugged all of this information into a formula akin to the NCAA Tournament Fund, the split would probably be fairly close to what has been negotiated here. One major concern is that it is locked in. It would seem more equitable and transparent if it were based on "tournament credits" accumulated over a rolling period as the NCAA Tournament Fund is. Hopefully the "look ins" can perform this same function.

Note,

Quote: ... and Notre Dame will have protections that will survive regardless of the ultimate format

Protections, plural. If "ND is in if they are in the top 14" is one protection, a second possible protection would be "ND is a first round host if they are in the top X".

And, yes, the Game Theory analysis would indeed predict ND continues to get special treatment ... ND has a credible threat of joining the ACC, given the contractual commitment, and that credible threat makes it in the Big Ten's interest to keep Notre Dame independent "for now".

That same credible threat also acts as a credible threat to both the SEC and Big Ten to shore up the media value of the ACC and thereby threaten to convert the situation from a P2 and M2 into a P3 and M1.

(03-15-2024 12:22 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  Chris Vannini:
There is not a rush to expand the CFP to 14 teams because ESPN won't pay more if it grows from 12 to 14 and adds two more games. Could be weeks, could be months.

That's an important point! Why expand to 14 if ESPN isn't paying for it?