33 Colorado St vs 23 New Mexico Q1 midnight
34 Dayton season over
35 Florida Atlantic vs 79 North Texas Q2 7pm-won 77-71
36 TCU season over
37 Mississippi St Fri vs 5 Tennessee Q1 1pm-won 73-56
38 Oklahoma season over
39 Michigan St Fri vs 3 Purdue Q1 noon-lost 62-67
40 Texas A&M Fri vs 18 Kentucky Q1 7pm-won 97-87
------first four--------
41 Virginia Fri vs 69 NC State Q2 930pm-lost 65-73
42 St John's Fri vs 2 UConn Q1 530pm-lost 90-95
43 Colorado vs 43 Washington St Q1 1030pm-won 58-52
44 New Mexico vs 31 Colorado St Q1 Midnight
-------cutline----------
69 Pittsburgh Fri vs 7 North Carolina Q1 7pm-lost 65-72
70 Providence Fri vs 13 Marquette Q1 8pm-lost 68-79
71 Seton Hall season over
72 Indiana St season over
73 Ohio St Fri vs 16 Illinois Q1 630pm-lost 74-77
74 Kansas St season over
75 Villanova season over
76 Wake Forest season over
77 NC State Fri vs 50 Virginia Q1 930pm-won 73-65
78 Iowa season over

Exactly what I have. Colorado and New Mexico in. https://carolinasportsthoughts.wordpress...cketology/

As usual, we're right on the cut line. Good times!

I think the team the bracketologists are missing on this year is Texas A&M. You see 14-loss teams get in when they have a high NET and nearly all of those losses are Q1/Q2. Neither of those applies to Texas A&M, who has a 2-5 Q3 record (5 bad losses) and a NET (46) behind the cutline.

I think the actual committee is giving their spot to Indiana St or Pitt. And if FAU wins their tournament, both Indiana St/Pitt get in.

(03-15-2024 10:53 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  I think the team the bracketologists are missing on this year is Texas A&M. You see 14-loss teams get in when they have a high NET and nearly all of those losses are Q1/Q2. Neither of those applies to Texas A&M, who has a 2-5 Q3 record (5 bad losses) and a NET (46) behind the cutline.

I think the actual committee is giving their spot to Indiana St or Pitt. And if FAU wins their tournament, both Indiana St/Pitt get in.

5-6 in Q1 games, and 7-2 in Q2 games. There's not a team like A&M on the bubble. Nobody else on the bubble as many bad losses or as many good wins. At least we don't have any q4 losses this time. What does that mean? A bunch of people not getting much sleep in College Station unless we win the SEC Tournament, that's what.

If we lose to Kentucky and end up with an 8 seed I wouldn't be surprised, and if we lose to Kentucky and end up so far out of the Tourney that we don't even get a "first 4 out" nod, I also wouldn't be surprised. And if we beat Kentucky and still miss out, I also wouldn't be surprised.

Lunardi has things as:
last 4 byes:
Mich St
Miss St
Oklahoma
St John's

last 4 in:
Colorado
Seton Hall
Virginia
Texas A&M

First out:
New Mexico
Indiana St
Pittsburgh
Providence
Kansas St
Wake Forest
Ohio St
Villanova

So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Yeah, I have a hard time believing New Mexico isn't in after winning last night. I'd put them in and take out Seton Hall from Lunardi's list.

(03-15-2024 11:20 AM)Frank Grimes Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Yeah, I have a hard time believing New Mexico isn't in after winning last night. I'd put them in and take out Seton Hall from Lunardi's list.

but even if that is true, still got other teams that could still pass them up. lots of moving parts still.

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Blame Dayton, honestly. Or the committee that actually thinks Dayton’s metrics are legit. Dayton should be playing on their home court at best, imo. Just be content SDSU stopped giving bids away by actually stopping UNLV. And a hobbled Marquette having enough to silence Villanova. It’s a shame Minnesota couldn’t silence Michigan State. This could be a lot worse.

I love Championship Week for the small conferences, but I loathe it for the way some teams creep back into consideration because some of the better ones are taking it easy for next week. And it usually is at the expense of the non-major.

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Lunardi's first four out are New Mexico, Pitt, Indiana State and Providence.
Bracket matrix has: New Mexico, Pitt, TAMU and Villanova

Lunardi last four in: Colorado, Virginia, TAMU and Seton Hall
Bracket matrix: Colorado, Virginia, St John's and Indiana State

(03-15-2024 11:26 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Lunardi's first four out are New Mexico, Pitt, Indiana State and Providence.
Bracket matrix has: New Mexico, Pitt, TAMU and Villanova

Lunardi last four in: Colorado, Virginia, TAMU and Seton Hall
Bracket matrix: Colorado, Virginia, St John's and Indiana State

matrix last I saw didn't have yesterday figured in yet at all.

https://x.com/ryanhammer09/status/176862...80641?s=20


In the 6 main metrics (NET, KenPom, BPI, KPI, T-Rank, SOR), here's who's above the cutline in how many of them:
6/6 Indiana St
5/6 Mississippi St, St. John's, Pitt
4/6 New Mexico
3/6
2/6 Texas A&M, Providence
1/6 Seton Hall

We have damn good metrics that account for discrepancies in schedule strength among many things. These metrics predict games with damn good accuracy. They're the best, most objective tools we have -- use them.

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Looks at post, sadly can't disagree.

Can Michigan St be heading to Dayton? Sure seems possible.

(03-15-2024 01:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Can Michigan St be heading to Dayton? Sure seems possible.

Pit them against Dayton in that game. “We don’t belong here.” The true meaning of a play-in.

They just asked the committee chair on CBSSN about Indiana State again. He said there are a lot of things they look at beyond Q1/Q2 wins, which I can only take to mean is metrics. When he was asked about Indiana State yesterday, he volunteered that Indiana State's second-best player was out for most of the Illinois State loss and missed the Southern Illinois loss (those were coincidentally Indiana State's only 2 losses outside the NET top-50).

A lot of bracketologists are moving Indiana State out of the field, but each time the committee chair has been asked about them -- he's gone out of his way to give reasons to include them.

(03-15-2024 11:25 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Blame Dayton, honestly. Or the committee that actually thinks Dayton’s metrics are legit. Dayton should be playing on their home court at best, imo. Just be content SDSU stopped giving bids away by actually stopping UNLV. And a hobbled Marquette having enough to silence Villanova. It’s a shame Minnesota couldn’t silence Michigan State. This could be a lot worse.

I love Championship Week for the small conferences, but I loathe it for the way some teams creep back into consideration because some of the better ones are taking it easy for next week. And it usually is at the expense of the non-major.

Exactly. I will be shocked if any of Ohio State, Michigan State, or Villanova are left home.

(03-15-2024 06:47 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:25 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Blame Dayton, honestly. Or the committee that actually thinks Dayton’s metrics are legit. Dayton should be playing on their home court at best, imo. Just be content SDSU stopped giving bids away by actually stopping UNLV. And a hobbled Marquette having enough to silence Villanova. It’s a shame Minnesota couldn’t silence Michigan State. This could be a lot worse.

I love Championship Week for the small conferences, but I loathe it for the way some teams creep back into consideration because some of the better ones are taking it easy for next week. And it usually is at the expense of the non-major.

Exactly. I will be shocked if any of Ohio State, Michigan State, or Villanova are left home.

Sparty is a lock, Tosu is a lock with a win over Illinois, but Nova is NIT bound.

(03-15-2024 12:07 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 11:08 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  So of course the last 8 at-larges are P6, first two out are not.

New Mexico and Indiana State should be in over Virginia and TAMU

Looks at post, sadly can't disagree.

Well A&M probably played itself off the bubble tonight. UK looked pretty sloppy. A&M gets a solid win (in last minute now).