Warchant.com gives ACC 1st response

OSU, WSU, USF, Conn, Tulane, Memphis
MWC & what's left of AAC is next move

My guess is the 1st 5 you mentioned in that order (maybe USF moved to 1st priority). I think the academics will be still a sticking point that they'll use on Memphis, but I could see Memphis added to the B12 if they lose Kansas (assuming the other 5 land in the ACC). The question is how many do they lose? My guess is 3-6 (ND may or may not be one of them, also is Kansas 1 of them?). Also wouldn't rule out SDSU if they try to rebuild to 15 and have a western pod, but my guess is if ND leaves, they aim for 4 pods of 4

(03-03-2024 07:06 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  My guess is the 1st 5 you mentioned in that order (maybe USF moved to 1st priority). I think the academics will be still a sticking point that they'll use on Memphis, but I could see Memphis added to the B12 if they lose Kansas (assuming the other 5 land in the ACC). The question is how many do they lose? My guess is 3-6 (ND may or may not be one of them, also is Kansas 1 of them?). Also wouldn't rule out SDSU if they try to rebuild to 15 and have a western pod, but my guess is if ND leaves, they aim for 4 pods of 4

Agree! Also remember that the ACC can lose three (18 to 15) before really needing to do something as the ESPN TV contract states that membership needs to stay above 15 for the current contract to exist. With the 250M per year bump expected in 2027 (still behind SEC & BIG10) that is huge. What will be interesting is how they (who) prioritize additions, if they fall below 15.

So if FSU, Miami, and Clemson all leave... South Florida probably gets called up ASAP to keep Florida as an "In-State" rate for the ACC Network. The ACC would be at 16.

If FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC & NC State all leave, the ACC would be at 13. First all five would have to pay the exit fee lets say it is 300M a school to leave, so the 13 remaining members will split 1.5B(I am not sold this is going to happen) amongst the 13 members and then the ACC would add USF to get to 14. to get to 15 or 16 the ACC will be able to choose from Oregon State, Washington State, Uconn, or Tulane. Do they take 1 to get to 15 or do they take 2 to get to 16?? What would drive the invite Media Market, TV Households for ACC Network, Academic Ranking? We will just have to wait and see. So far it appears only FSU is wanting to leave. Doesn't mean in 2030 we won't see other teams leave(This is whee I can see some ACC teams jumping to SEC/BIG) and pay less of a fee. In that case we may see Rice, San Diego State and Colorado State rise to the top of expansion based on "new Media Market" data. Something to watch for sure.

USF is definitely the next school in.

Tulane, UConn, and Memphis are the next tier. Personally, I think Memphis can add a lot but the AAU types might try to block them as they don’t want another Louisville in their midst.

I’m not sure Oregon St and Washington St get strong consideration. I don’t see Cal and Stanford lobbying for them.

(03-03-2024 07:21 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 07:06 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  My guess is the 1st 5 you mentioned in that order (maybe USF moved to 1st priority). I think the academics will be still a sticking point that they'll use on Memphis, but I could see Memphis added to the B12 if they lose Kansas (assuming the other 5 land in the ACC). The question is how many do they lose? My guess is 3-6 (ND may or may not be one of them, also is Kansas 1 of them?). Also wouldn't rule out SDSU if they try to rebuild to 15 and have a western pod, but my guess is if ND leaves, they aim for 4 pods of 4

Agree! Also remember that the ACC can lose three (18 to 15) before really needing to do something as the ESPN TV contract states that membership needs to stay above 15 for the current contract to exist. With the 250M per year bump expected in 2027 (still behind SEC & BIG10) that is huge. What will be interesting is how they (who) prioritize additions, if they fall below 15.

So if FSU, Miami, and Clemson all leave... South Florida probably gets called up ASAP to keep Florida as an "In-State" rate for the ACC Network. The ACC would be at 16.

If FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC & NC State all leave, the ACC would be at 13. First all five would have to pay the exit fee lets say it is 300M a school to leave, so the 13 remaining members will split 1.5B(I am not sold this is going to happen) amongst the 13 members and then the ACC would add USF to get to 14. to get to 15 or 16 the ACC will be able to choose from Oregon State, Washington State, Uconn, or Tulane. Do they take 1 to get to 15 or do they take 2 to get to 16?? What would drive the invite Media Market, TV Households for ACC Network, Academic Ranking? We will just have to wait and see. So far it appears only FSU is wanting to leave. Doesn't mean in 2030 we won't see other teams leave(This is whee I can see some ACC teams jumping to SEC/BIG) and pay less of a fee. In that case we may see Rice, San Diego State and Colorado State rise to the top of expansion based on "new Media Market" data. Something to watch for sure.

If NC State, UNC, and Clemson all leave the ACC has a huge hole in North & South Carolina. Wake and Duke are tiny schools & without Clemson zero schools in South Carolina. If Wake didn't get lucky back in the day and were left out of the ACC they would be Davidson. UNC-Charlotte would be the only school that could get part of the South Carolina market plus Charlotte is a big market that I can't see a reformed ACC not wanting to have a presence. ECU and AppState would be the next two schools to choose from if a reformed ACC really wants a North Carolina presence.

I don't think UConn is eager to join the American 2.0 in that scenario. At least, not without their friends. Maybe they can effectively restore the original Big East by inviting along the entire C7.

USF is first and Tulane is probably second. Tulane is everything the acc is evolving into. It’s private, urban and has excellent academics.

Jackson

(03-03-2024 04:15 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ACC plan if there's a jailbreak

If?

USF, UConn and Tulane fit an ACC profile due to higher academic rankings.

Oregon St and Memphis could fit into the Big 12 but would not be good fits for the ACC.

Wash St has more of a MWC profile, and would probably be behind SDSU and Col St on any potential expansion list.

It makes you wonder if the Big 12 should be proactive and take USF and UConn now, before the ACC. Could establish the Big 12 as the clear #3 in any post jailbreak scenerio.

(03-03-2024 07:51 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  USF is definitely the next school in.

Tulane, UConn, and Memphis are the next tier. Personally, I think Memphis can add a lot but the AAU types might try to block them as they don’t want another Louisville in their midst.

I’m not sure Oregon St and Washington St get strong consideration. I don’t see Cal and Stanford lobbying for them.

I am enjoying the rise in apparent status of USF. A year ago, most (not talking about you, btw) commentators seemed to have us as 4th or 5th in line to get in to the nB12. Now, we seem to head all of the lists to get in to the nB12 or ACC, and there is even talk in some quarters of an eventual SEC invite. AAU was a game-changer, it seems, along with firm moves towards an OCS.

I'm skeptical about all of this, but it is nice. And sometimes talk can manifest stuff. So please keep talking us up.

(03-03-2024 09:56 AM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  USF is first and Tulane is probably second. Tulane is everything the acc is evolving into. It’s private, urban and has excellent academics.

Jackson

I don’t know that the ACC sees losing FSU for USF and Tulane as evolutionary.

(03-03-2024 09:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:15 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ACC plan if there's a jailbreak

If?

What are you hearing from the Miami side?

Reports of the death of the ACC have been greatly exaggerated.

So many questions.....

Who is fitting the bill?
Is the ACC using buyout money to pay for this?
ESPN opt-out scenario just go away?
Why pay a premium for a conference of leftovers, along with having to pay full shares for a bigger SEC?

(03-03-2024 09:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:15 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ACC plan if there's a jailbreak

If?

It could end up being just FSU and Clemson leaving.

(03-03-2024 11:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 09:57 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:15 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ACC plan if there's a jailbreak

If?

It could end up being just FSU and Clemson leaving.

Or just FSU. There are plenty of reasons Clemson might have for staying. The odds of Clemson being 1 of the 2 CFP teams most years are great. The up front costs of exiting the ACC might well be too great. The possibility of going to the SEC or B10 and finishing more often than not between 4-8th in the conference and not making the CFP are worth considering. Also worth considering is the possibility that there will be a radical chance in the top of college football, perhaps breaking from the NCAA or the NCAA creating a top tier. Perhaps it would be better to let that play out as some of the schools in the major conferences decide that they don't wish or can't meet the minimum requirements for admittance and others, like Clemson move in to those slots. There is also to be considered the possibility that that money gap between the Power 2 and others isn't as difficult to compensate for as it is currently believed.

Sometimes that best move is not to take another card.

(03-03-2024 12:05 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Or just FSU. There are plenty of reasons Clemson might have for staying. The odds of Clemson being 1 of the 2 CFP teams most years are great.

We haven't seen a single school make a realignment decision on "it'll be easier to make the playoffs if we stay." Just the opposite for every move, in fact.

(03-03-2024 12:08 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 12:05 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Or just FSU. There are plenty of reasons Clemson might have for staying. The odds of Clemson being 1 of the 2 CFP teams most years are great.

We haven't seen a single school make a realignment decision on "it'll be easier to make the playoffs if we stay." Just the opposite for every move, in fact.

Most decisions in life aren't made based on a single factor, but rather upon taking into consideration a multitude of factors.

(03-03-2024 12:13 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 12:08 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 12:05 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Or just FSU. There are plenty of reasons Clemson might have for staying. The odds of Clemson being 1 of the 2 CFP teams most years are great.

We haven't seen a single school make a realignment decision on "it'll be easier to make the playoffs if we stay." Just the opposite for every move, in fact.

Most decisions in life aren't made based on a single factor, but rather upon taking into consideration a multitude of factors.

Sure, but none of your other listed factors lean toward Clemson staying either.

There might be a change at the top? Well...yeah. But that change is clearly leaning more toward the door closing rather than staying open for a long time. Why do you think a program like FSU is potentially willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to move?

"There is also to be considered the possibility that that money gap between the Power 2 and others isn't as difficult to compensate for as it is currently believed?" Yep...and I could just wish myself a million dollar a year income as well. Just as likely to happen it seems. And doesn't make any of those factors you listed any different for USC, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, et al either.

IMO, if FSU manages to escape, the only way Clemson remains in the ACC is if nobody in the P2 wants them.