(01-19-2024 08:26 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I'm assuming this figure is not including the ACCN.

No, the "$30M or so" number includes the ACC Network money. From the Florida State lawstuit, we know the ACC's guranteed number (if the ACC Network went away, or lost money for the year or something) is abnout $20M.

PDF of the legal complaint from Florida State's webpage

According to their IRS Form 990, ACC made $444M in Television REvenue.
$20M times 14 is $280M, plus a little something for Notre Dame, means the ACC made $160M or so off of the ACC Network.

Total revenue was $615M, of which they paid out $570M to the schools. So the conference takes a 7% haircut. So $412 in TV money paid out to 14 1/3 schools (I think Notre Dame gets a 1/3 share, but I don't remember where I got that from) gets you $29M for a full share in 2021-22.

Quote:If we are to assume the BigTen and SEC are right at market value, hard to believe the ACC is worth about half as much.

Well, it's true. The Big Ten just went to market (albeit before the streaming bubble really crashed). The SEC re-did their Game Of The Week package not too long ago.

To answer the OP, the ACC was probably underpaid for the last ten years. But they have (mostly) guaranteed money for the next 10+ years, which is looking better as media company market capitalizations shrink. (From 2019 to today, Fox Corporation has gone from $22B to $14B, PAramount has gone from $25M to $9B. Comcast and Disney have non-media components, so it's not as clear from their stock values)

(01-20-2024 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 07:12 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 11:40 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 07:39 PM)clunk Wrote:  I'd like to remind people the last time we did a media money poll was for the PAC, and the answers were wildly optimistic to the point of incompetence. The real world answer was less than the bottom option in the poll. There's less money than you think in the media world.

So you're saying Swofford is a ninja and did a great job negotiating the ACC deal which is above market value?

Somebody forward this to Tallahassee!

The issue is that FSU is way under market value. If the ACC can get FSU within $10-15k of SEC media payout, FSU is content until 2036.

About the bolded, I agree that this is the real issue.

IMO, the ACC is not underpaid. But FSU is, as they could likely get a B1G or SEC invite and be making a lot more.

But, IIRC FSU has indicated in their court filings that the ACC has bungled the media deals, in effect IMO claiming the ACC is underpaid. To me, that is not a winning argument because I no longer believe it is so. IMO they should talk about the GOR as an unconscionable barrier to school movement, hence a kind of restraint of trade, stuff like that.

But then again, I am not a lawyer.

There are several ways to look at FSU's value. I believe they get more from the ACC than they would get as an independent. No doubt they would get more from the SEC or B1G if they got a full share from those conferences. And then you have to guess by how much ACC revenues would be reduced if FSU left that conference as a statement of what their value is playing in the ACC. I suppose you could also throw in what their value might be to the B12 12. So it's not just simple arithmetic.

And I believe it is more likely that any school would believe they are more valuable than they really are than would believe they are less valuable. We all have egos.

(01-19-2024 05:54 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  How did you get these numbers? Looks like the B12 number is the average for the next 7 years. The ACC average payout would be in $35-$40M range during that time.

What do you base that on?
I'm going to look at the midpoint year of the Big 12 contract, 2027-28
That's when the $31.8M per school is going to be closest to the real number. Assuming that ESPN picks up the ACC option (and that either FSU doesn't bolt, or that ESPN doesn't slash the contract when the top handful of teams jailbreak the GOR), ACC is guaranteed $23.7M per school. (Ignoring the math involved in Stanford, Cal and SMU getting full shares from ESPN which get shared among the 14.333 existing members)

ACC Network generated about $160M or so to the ACC in 2021-22, which I'm pretty sure is when they were "fully distributed", ACC Network was included in the Disney ESPN contracts with all of the national providers. That's about $9-10M per school.

You'll probably see a boost from extracting in-state rates for California and Texas, but I have no idea how big that boost is. And that's running into the buzzsaw of the pay-TV universe shrinking. And the reality is that ESPN is focusing on taking their flagship channels Direct-to-Consumer. Will that include ACC NEtwork and SEC Network? Will those be add-on subscriptions? ESPN+ content? Exclusive to cable TV?

No idea, but I doubt the answer is going to be as lucrative as the SEC Network has been for the last 10 years and as lucrative as the ACC NEtowork was expected to be.

[quotr]
People on this board used to say that the ACC media deal was vastly undervalued and laughed at the idea of having a long term contract.[/quote]

Until the tide turned, and the idea of guaranteed money in the 2030's started seeming pretty good. IT's a very real possibility that in 2030 ESPN and Fox turn to the Big 12 and reenact the Despicable Me scene "As far as money -- we have no money"

Quote:In the meantime, the B12 went through a crisis and the Pac collapsed. The prospect for media deal is not as rosy for middle tier conferences.

Now I see some people saying the ACC is overvalued and ESPN may not want to renew the contract.

A lot of that is driven by the idea that ESPN knows more than us, and ESPN built in an escape clause in 2027, and that ESPN hasn't decided yet whether to use it or not.

What do the green eyeshades at the Mouse know that we don't konw?

Quote:Remember the ACC has two sources of media money: money from main ESPN contract and the ACCN money.

My own opinion is that the ACC's main media contract is indeed undervalued. Some people (or trolls) only look at this contract and claim that the ACC's media money is the lowest among the P-leagues. However, the ACC also receives money from the ACCN. The ACC really wanted to have a dedicated TV channel and it started making money for the ACC schools ($9M per school last year). If the ACCN keeps growing as expected, I would say the ACC is adequately compensated.

I think I agree with your general point.

I would argyue that the ACC Network will now never reach the expectations they had at the beginning, because in the 2020's cable revenues go DOWN, not UP. But I'd still rather be the ACC for the next 10 years with guaranteed money past 2030 than the Big 12. IF the money keeps flowing, the ACC Network money will keep flowing. If the money dries up, well the ACC has guaranteed money for 13 years, the Big 12 has guaranteed money for 7 years.

(01-20-2024 07:19 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 07:39 PM)clunk Wrote:  I'd like to remind people the last time we did a media money poll was for the PAC, and the answers were wildly optimistic to the point of incompetence. The real world answer was less than the bottom option in the poll. There's less money than you think in the media world.

Actually, the Pac poll came up with an average expectation of about $28m. They ended up with an offer from Apple of $25m, and they probably would have stayed together if the B1G hadn't bumped their offer to entice Washington off the fence, so we weren't all that far off. I'm not sure how being $3m off as an average in a very large poll was "wildly incompetent".

I just cut and pasted the poll into a spreadsheet, set the value of each range at the middle, multiplied the value times votes, added up and divided by poll votes. I got an average of $25.77M. Which is a little higher than Apple's final offer. On the other hand, Clunk has a point, for a lot of the schools those numbers were conditional on "50% linear exposure (or close to it)", so you could say the PAC's best offer with linear exposure was $0.

And I'm not sure that the Big 10 upped their offer so much as Washington (and Oregon) dropped their asking price.

Value = the network who would spend the second most dollars. Who would spend more than ESPN currently does on the ACC? Fox? Amazon?

(01-20-2024 07:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IIRC, for 2021-2022, the tax returns show the ACC made about $443m in media revenue, which works out to $31.6m per school. Whether that was the precise payout for each school or not IDK, but that was the gross number.

The year before, it was $28m. So I suspect that for 2023-2024 they might be making about $34m or so in media money, and going up.

I think those big increases were the ACC Network coming fully online, getting on more and more cable systems as the Disney ESPN cable contracts rolled over. Last year they said that ACC Network was "fully distributed", so I think we're going to see that flatten out.

Quote:So I think that under the current deal, the one actually in effect, the ACC will likely see boosts that will bring it up to around $40m per school in the next 5 or so years. More than the nB12 will be making I believe.

$40M per schoo, I doubt it. More than Big 12, yes but not by much.

Quote:Which IMO is basically what it would make in the open market today.

The open market today? That's a horse of another color.

ESPN is no longer in the business of using their gusher-of-money to buy up as much sports as they can to prevent anyone else from building a real ESPN challenger. So ESPN can look at a package and value it in terms of --what is anyone ELSE going to bid for it?

The ACC Network part of the package would be very difficult to sell today, at any price. The CW has a comparable package, value wise, and I'll just say that ESPN let themselves be outbid by Nexstar. (CW is either buying the games from Raycom, who used to sell them to Fox Sports Net / Diamond Sports group, or maybe ESPN is selling directly to CW. The point is I was shocked that ESPN didn't spend the money to use those gamees to beef up ESPN+)

But with Florida State, Clemson, a couple of Notre Dame road games every year, and a dozen other P5 schools (law of averages one of them is going to win a bunch of games and look good late in the season) the ACC is good for one or two OTA/ESPN caliber games per week.

On the one hand, Fox CBS and NBC just valued "one OTA game a week" at $300M+. On the other hand, CBS, Fox and NBC also maybe just filled up their requirements for Saturday college football and told the PAC "no thanks"

On the other other hand, Apple is still out there, so maybe the floor is $22-25M per school?

(01-20-2024 09:04 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 07:12 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 11:40 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 07:39 PM)clunk Wrote:  I'd like to remind people the last time we did a media money poll was for the PAC, and the answers were wildly optimistic to the point of incompetence. The real world answer was less than the bottom option in the poll. There's less money than you think in the media world.

So you're saying Swofford is a ninja and did a great job negotiating the ACC deal which is above market value?

Somebody forward this to Tallahassee!

The issue is that FSU is way under market value. If the ACC can get FSU within $10-15k of SEC media payout, FSU is content until 2036.

About the bolded, I agree that this is the real issue.

IMO, the ACC is not underpaid. But FSU is, as they could likely get a B1G or SEC invite and be making a lot more.

But, IIRC FSU has indicated in their court filings that the ACC has bungled the media deals, in effect IMO claiming the ACC is underpaid. To me, that is not a winning argument because I no longer believe it is so. IMO they should talk about the GOR as an unconscionable barrier to school movement, hence a kind of restraint of trade, stuff like that.

But then again, I am not a lawyer.

Right. Their perspective is essentially saying FSU didn't know their own value, but somehow that's the ACC's fault.

The entire relationship with FSU was built on a trade that's been outlined a million times. FSU brings football prowess and in exchange they join the best basketball conference and hobnob with superior academic institutions. Football value has skyrocketed and now they want to renege on the agreement by any means necessary. It's not about what they deserve, it's what they agreed to.

About FSU not knowing their value, it is noteworthy to me that some FSU fans have criticized their 2012/2016 leadership for signing those GORs. In effect, for not knowing what their value was and signing it away for low ACC money. But, IIRC, at the time, those seemed like reasonable moves, because at those times the SEC and B1G (a) weren't making a ton more than the ACC and (b) neither conference seemed interested in FSU. So what else should FSU have done?

The vaulting of FSU to high-value, desired by SEC and B1G status is IMO a very recent development, borne of the TX/OU announced move to the SEC in 2021 and the B1G counter-moves. It is a product of the new strategic rivalry between the newly-emergent P2 super-powers. So not something that IMO was predictable in 2016, when the last GOR was signed.

As an aside, I don't think that narrative applies to UNC. IMO, UNC has been desirable to the SEC and B1G all along. So I think they signed those GORs knowing that they had options in those leagues.

(01-20-2024 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 07:12 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 11:40 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 07:39 PM)clunk Wrote:  I'd like to remind people the last time we did a media money poll was for the PAC, and the answers were wildly optimistic to the point of incompetence. The real world answer was less than the bottom option in the poll. There's less money than you think in the media world.

So you're saying Swofford is a ninja and did a great job negotiating the ACC deal which is above market value?

Somebody forward this to Tallahassee!

The issue is that FSU is way under market value. If the ACC can get FSU within $10-15k of SEC media payout, FSU is content until 2036.

About the bolded, I agree that this is the real issue.

IMO, the ACC is not underpaid. But FSU is, as they could likely get a B1G or SEC invite and be making a lot more.

But, IIRC FSU has indicated in their court filings that the ACC has bungled the media deals, in effect IMO claiming the ACC is underpaid. To me, that is not a winning argument because I no longer believe it is so. IMO they should talk about the GOR as an unconscionable barrier to school movement, hence a kind of restraint of trade, stuff like that.

But then again, I am not a lawyer.

Well, they did say all that stuff.

I tend to believe the stuff about the ACC being mismanaged is fanservice throat-clearing, I don't know that judges have any time for that stuff short of actual fraud. If the ACC bylaws were followed, if the ACC didn't circulate false information at the time, I don't think there's a case.

Even John Swofford cutting Raycom a sweetheart deal to keep his son employed -- you could maybe make a case against John Swofford, but does that add up to Florida State getting a get-out-of-ACC-free card?

And Young Swofford being a Raycom employee was known, based on my googling five minutes ago, by Clemson fan-forums in May of 2012. https://www.tigernet.com/forum/thread/Ch...on-1105663

So it is a little late to bring that up ten plus years and one TV contract (2014) later?

(01-20-2024 09:27 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 07:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IIRC, for 2021-2022, the tax returns show the ACC made about $443m in media revenue, which works out to $31.6m per school. Whether that was the precise payout for each school or not IDK, but that was the gross number.

Before calculating the per school amount, I believe you first have to subtract Notre Dame's share of the revenue, which is less than the full members, and also subtract however much the ACC takes off the top to fund its activities.

Then, to project future revenues, you have to account for how much the 3 new members will be paid in the future, and how much their addition will add to the revenues, both from increases in the media contract and increase in the 50% share of the ACCN.

Good points.

I think Notre Dame gets like $17.5 million, though that is probably a moving target. As for what the ACC office takes, I agree as well, but IMO that is not typically reported for any conference. E.g., when the new B12 deal was announced, I think the way that was presented in the media was that they would get $380m a year, divided 12 ways (meaning sans TX and OU and with UCF/Cincy/H/BYU, but before the addition of all the new PAC schools), which equals $31.6m per school. So if we do that calculation for the ACC we might have to do it for everyone else too.

As for the three new schools, yes, that is a complicating factor too. I guess I expect them to be revenue-neutral on a per school basis, which of course could well be wrong.

(01-20-2024 09:19 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 05:30 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I see this all the time, and invariably people claim that "the ACC is worth far more than they're getting paid". I've even said it many times over the past couple of years, but I've recently begun to question this assumption. Here's what we know to be true or have strong reason to suspect to be true:

ACC: ~ $30m
Big 12: ~ $31.6m
SEC: $60-65m (educated guess but with reasonable certainty)
B1G: $62.5-$75m (publicly posted numbers upon announcing the deal last year)

A couple of resources I've used to help find clarity on this issue:

https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-vi...am-attract
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/ (just do a google search for "college football tv ratings 2022, 2021, 2020, etc" to get their results for years before 2023

The Washington and Oregon components are separate from the primary B1G contract, I think, though they will further-dilute bowl payouts and NCAAT units, just like the 4c did to the Big 12.

Looking at the ratings for all P4 conferences over the past decade + factoring in CCG ratings, Bowl ratings, CFP games, the new 12 team CFP format etc etc, gives the old ACC (before Calford and SMU joined) a small advantage over the new NEW Big 12. Look at the entirely of the true P4 versions of both the Big 12 and ACC, and I think that their value to media partners is very similar.

In the interest of setting expectations for what the ACC would/should/could bring on the open market, I'm including a poll that we can all refer back to in the future. Let's see what the board thinks of the ACC's true value.

Do the ACC, B1G and SEC numbers include the ACCN, BTN and SECN?

The ACC and SEC numbers do. The Big Ten $60-70M number doesn't, because those are based on back-of-the-napkin math about the new CBS/NBC/Fox deals being worth $8M over 7 years, divide 8 by 7, divide by 16 to get $72M. Or take the value as $1B a year, divide by 16 and get $62.5M.

None of that includes the BTN money. Which we don't have anything more thatn guesses on, so here's my guess.
50M subscribers, average $1 a month gives you revenue ot $600M
Say it costs $100M to run the thing (Pac 12 Net cost $80M for the best year we have data), gives you $500M. Fox owns 60% of BTN, Big Ten owns 40%, 40% of $500M is $200M. $200M divided by 16 is $12.5M.

So my wild guess for BTN revenue is $10-15M per school.

Just based on the revenue reported for 2022, I would say the ACC is probably worth an extra 100M on the open market. I can't see a scenario where they are worth more than 725M per year. If the SEC made 802M, clearly the ACC is not in the 800M club. Now when the SEC is in the 900M club maybe ACC is in the 800M.

However the question becomes how much per school is an extra 100M worth to 17 schools and ND partial share. that is about 5.8 per school, or 6M per school and 2-3 to ND.

So I vote for 40-42M. However the ACC already is making 43M they know this and are reports of it in 22-23 .... their whole incentive plan is to allow some teams to crack into the 50-60M plus...

Power Five conference revenue for 2022 fiscal year

Big10- $845.6 million
SEC - $802 million
ACC - $617 million
PAC12-$580.9 million
BIG12-$480.6 million


Link
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...er-report/

(01-20-2024 09:19 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 07:27 AM)clunk Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 11:51 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 07:39 PM)clunk Wrote:  I'd like to remind people the last time we did a media money poll was for the PAC, and the answers were wildly optimistic to the point of incompetence. The real world answer was less than the bottom option in the poll. There's less money than you think in the media world.

Not true. The bottom answer was $19 million. The Apple offer was $23 million, which Apple amended to $25 million at the 11th hour. UW/UO then got an unexpected B1G invite, rendering everything moot as no one was turning down a P2 invite.
https://csnbbs.com/thread-971877.html

The question was what the PAC-12's media deal will be. The answer was $0. Not $25M.

It was $0 because of the B1G.

I'd phrase that differently. Washington and Oregon went to the Big Ten because there was no realistic media deal on the table.

I don't think Washington and Oregon would have gone to the Big Ten for half shares if the alternative wasn't vanishing from television.

Quote:If Election Day is hijacked by a foreign country taking over and installing their leader, that doesn’t make predictive polling “wildly incompetent”. It just makes predictive polling moot.

Yeah, the predictions that didn't include "complete annihilation" as an option were moot.

According to a report by ESPN, some ACC athletics directors expect a revenue distribution of about $43 million per school from its 2022-23 fiscal year. While that figure is above the $37 -$40 million members received last year, it falls well short of what schools in the SEC and Big Ten are expected to receive under their new media rights deals.

Industry projections have Big Ten and SEC institutions receiving more than $70 million annually, increasing to nearly $100 million by 2030. The ACC projections have the league somewhere in the $55 million range by the decade’s end.


Link
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/05/...c-big-ten/

(01-20-2024 10:42 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  According to a report by ESPN, some ACC athletics directors expect a revenue distribution of about $43 million per school from its 2022-23 fiscal year. While that figure is above the $37 -$40 million members received last year, it falls well short of what schools in the SEC and Big Ten are expected to receive under their new media rights deals.

Industry projections have Big Ten and SEC institutions receiving more than $70 million annually, increasing to nearly $100 million by 2030. The ACC projections have the league somewhere in the $55 million range by the decade’s end.


Link
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/05/...c-big-ten/

I would note that the 55M is now in the 70-65M range with the new unequal sharing, for top schools and in the 49-50M for least successful teams.

Link
https://theacc.com/news/2023/5/24/genera...tives.aspx

FWIW: the new Big12 TV deal clearly puts them #4

The annual average distribution will increase from $220 million to $380 million when the new contract begins in 2025-26 – an average of $31.7 million in media revenue for the conference’s 12 members.

Link
https://www.sportcal.com/media/espn-and-...s/?cf-view

(01-20-2024 09:22 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 09:19 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 05:30 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I see this all the time, and invariably people claim that "the ACC is worth far more than they're getting paid". I've even said it many times over the past couple of years, but I've recently begun to question this assumption. Here's what we know to be true or have strong reason to suspect to be true:

ACC: ~ $30m
Big 12: ~ $31.6m
SEC: $60-65m (educated guess but with reasonable certainty)
B1G: $62.5-$75m (publicly posted numbers upon announcing the deal last year)

A couple of resources I've used to help find clarity on this issue:

https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-vi...am-attract
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/ (just do a google search for "college football tv ratings 2022, 2021, 2020, etc" to get their results for years before 2023

The Washington and Oregon components are separate from the primary B1G contract, I think, though they will further-dilute bowl payouts and NCAAT units, just like the 4c did to the Big 12.

Looking at the ratings for all P4 conferences over the past decade + factoring in CCG ratings, Bowl ratings, CFP games, the new 12 team CFP format etc etc, gives the old ACC (before Calford and SMU joined) a small advantage over the new NEW Big 12. Look at the entirely of the true P4 versions of both the Big 12 and ACC, and I think that their value to media partners is very similar.

In the interest of setting expectations for what the ACC would/should/could bring on the open market, I'm including a poll that we can all refer back to in the future. Let's see what the board thinks of the ACC's true value.

Do the ACC, B1G and SEC numbers include the ACCN, BTN and SECN?

Yes

I got the $30m estimate for the ACC from a FOS article from 12/23, the B1G number of "$7b - $8.4b" from numerous sources, all of whom seemed to come up with a different number somehow, and the SEC number from the publicly available information we have on it. Even though the B1G number has the widest spread, I'm the least confident in the SEC number. Nobody is talking about it really, and nobody with direct knowledge ever has. We do have the indirect evidence of OUT choosing the SEC over the B1G, however.

So...low confidence level on the SEC, medium on the B1G, and high on the Big 12 and ACC.

Are you sure? Show me the link.

(01-20-2024 10:47 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  FWIW: the new Big12 TV deal clearly puts them #4

The annual average distribution will increase from $220 million to $380 million when the new contract begins in 2025-26 – an average of $31.7 million in media revenue for the conference’s 12 members.

Link
https://www.sportcal.com/media/espn-and-...s/?cf-view

You are mixing TV revenue with total distributions. The Big 12 was in the vicinity of $28 million in TV revenue last year when they distributed 42.6 million per school. The ACC average distribution was $39.4, which included TV, ACCN, CFP, NCAA credits and other miscellaneous revenue.

(01-20-2024 09:22 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-20-2024 09:19 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 05:30 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I see this all the time, and invariably people claim that "the ACC is worth far more than they're getting paid". I've even said it many times over the past couple of years, but I've recently begun to question this assumption. Here's what we know to be true or have strong reason to suspect to be true:

ACC: ~ $30m
Big 12: ~ $31.6m
SEC: $60-65m (educated guess but with reasonable certainty)
B1G: $62.5-$75m (publicly posted numbers upon announcing the deal last year)

A couple of resources I've used to help find clarity on this issue:

https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-vi...am-attract
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/ (just do a google search for "college football tv ratings 2022, 2021, 2020, etc" to get their results for years before 2023

The Washington and Oregon components are separate from the primary B1G contract, I think, though they will further-dilute bowl payouts and NCAAT units, just like the 4c did to the Big 12.

Looking at the ratings for all P4 conferences over the past decade + factoring in CCG ratings, Bowl ratings, CFP games, the new 12 team CFP format etc etc, gives the old ACC (before Calford and SMU joined) a small advantage over the new NEW Big 12. Look at the entirely of the true P4 versions of both the Big 12 and ACC, and I think that their value to media partners is very similar.

In the interest of setting expectations for what the ACC would/should/could bring on the open market, I'm including a poll that we can all refer back to in the future. Let's see what the board thinks of the ACC's true value.

Do the ACC, B1G and SEC numbers include the ACCN, BTN and SECN?

Yes

I got the $30m estimate for the ACC from a FOS article from 12/23, the B1G number of "$7b - $8.4b" from numerous sources, all of whom seemed to come up with a different number somehow, and the SEC number from the publicly available information we have on it. Even though the B1G number has the widest spread, I'm the least confident in the SEC number. Nobody is talking about it really, and nobody with direct knowledge ever has. We do have the indirect evidence of OUT choosing the SEC over the B1G, however.

So...low confidence level on the SEC, medium on the B1G, and high on the Big 12 and ACC.

Well we know the ACC revised TV deal with Notre Dame averaged $260 million a year. If you assume 1/3 for ND, that's about $18 million a year from the start (2014?) to 2036. That doesn't include any ACCN money or a revision to basic TV, if any, from 2016 when the ACCN deal was signed..

(01-20-2024 09:55 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 05:54 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  How did you get these numbers? Looks like the B12 number is the average for the next 7 years. The ACC average payout would be in $35-$40M range during that time.

What do you base that on?
I'm going to look at the midpoint year of the Big 12 contract, 2027-28
That's when the $31.8M per school is going to be closest to the real number. Assuming that ESPN picks up the ACC option (and that either FSU doesn't bolt, or that ESPN doesn't slash the contract when the top handful of teams jailbreak the GOR), ACC is guaranteed $23.7M per school. (Ignoring the math involved in Stanford, Cal and SMU getting full shares from ESPN which get shared among the 14.333 existing members)

ACC Network generated about $160M or so to the ACC in 2021-22, which I'm pretty sure is when they were "fully distributed", ACC Network was included in the Disney ESPN contracts with all of the national providers. That's about $9-10M per school.

You'll probably see a boost from extracting in-state rates for California and Texas, but I have no idea how big that boost is. And that's running into the buzzsaw of the pay-TV universe shrinking. And the reality is that ESPN is focusing on taking their flagship channels Direct-to-Consumer. Will that include ACC NEtwork and SEC Network? Will those be add-on subscriptions? ESPN+ content? Exclusive to cable TV?

No idea, but I doubt the answer is going to be as lucrative as the SEC Network has been for the last 10 years and as lucrative as the ACC NEtowork was expected to be.

[quotr]
People on this board used to say that the ACC media deal was vastly undervalued and laughed at the idea of having a long term contract.

Until the tide turned, and the idea of guaranteed money in the 2030's started seeming pretty good. IT's a very real possibility that in 2030 ESPN and Fox turn to the Big 12 and reenact the Despicable Me scene "As far as money -- we have no money"

Quote:In the meantime, the B12 went through a crisis and the Pac collapsed. The prospect for media deal is not as rosy for middle tier conferences.

Now I see some people saying the ACC is overvalued and ESPN may not want to renew the contract.

A lot of that is driven by the idea that ESPN knows more than us, and ESPN built in an escape clause in 2027, and that ESPN hasn't decided yet whether to use it or not.

What do the green eyeshades at the Mouse know that we don't konw?

Quote:Remember the ACC has two sources of media money: money from main ESPN contract and the ACCN money.

My own opinion is that the ACC's main media contract is indeed undervalued. Some people (or trolls) only look at this contract and claim that the ACC's media money is the lowest among the P-leagues. However, the ACC also receives money from the ACCN. The ACC really wanted to have a dedicated TV channel and it started making money for the ACC schools ($9M per school last year). If the ACCN keeps growing as expected, I would say the ACC is adequately compensated.

I think I agree with your general point.

I would argyue that the ACC Network will now never reach the expectations they had at the beginning, because in the 2020's cable revenues go DOWN, not UP. But I'd still rather be the ACC for the next 10 years with guaranteed money past 2030 than the Big 12. IF the money keeps flowing, the ACC Network money will keep flowing. If the money dries up, well the ACC has guaranteed money for 13 years, the Big 12 has guaranteed money for 7 years.
[/quote]

A few things:

1. Comcast contract for ACCN started in December 2021. So, 2021-2022 revenue didn't reflect the full impact of Comcast.

2. The ACCN subscription number may peak at some point, but I expect ESPN would keep increasing the price. The ACC and ESPN split the revenue so the ACCN money will keep increasing. In a way, the ACCN is inflation proof.

3. The ACC earned $236M for 2016-2017 from ESPN. This doesn't include ACCN money because ACCN didn't exist. The 4.1% annual increase means $382M for 2027-2028. Ignoring the new additions, if you divide $382 by 14.2, you would get $25.9M per school. The ACCN money was $9 M last year. Even if the ACCN money stays same (I expect it will go up), you get about $35M.

4. Brian McMurphy estimated the ACC revenue would be high $30s or maybe even $40.

5. I don't know how significant the CA and TX conversion to in-network coverage would be but it's going to help.

Quote:

(01-20-2024 09:55 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-19-2024 05:54 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  How did you get these numbers? Looks like the B12 number is the average for the next 7 years. The ACC average payout would be in $35-$40M range during that time.

What do you base that on?
I'm going to look at the midpoint year of the Big 12 contract, 2027-28
That's when the $31.8M per school is going to be closest to the real number. Assuming that ESPN picks up the ACC option (and that either FSU doesn't bolt, or that ESPN doesn't slash the contract when the top handful of teams jailbreak the GOR), ACC is guaranteed $23.7M per school. (Ignoring the math involved in Stanford, Cal and SMU getting full shares from ESPN which get shared among the 14.333 existing members)

ACC Network generated about $160M or so to the ACC in 2021-22, which I'm pretty sure is when they were "fully distributed", ACC Network was included in the Disney ESPN contracts with all of the national providers. That's about $9-10M per school.

You'll probably see a boost from extracting in-state rates for California and Texas, but I have no idea how big that boost is. And that's running into the buzzsaw of the pay-TV universe shrinking. And the reality is that ESPN is focusing on taking their flagship channels Direct-to-Consumer. Will that include ACC NEtwork and SEC Network? Will those be add-on subscriptions? ESPN+ content? Exclusive to cable TV?

No idea, but I doubt the answer is going to be as lucrative as the SEC Network has been for the last 10 years and as lucrative as the ACC NEtowork was expected to be.

[quotr]
People on this board used to say that the ACC media deal was vastly undervalued and laughed at the idea of having a long term contract.

Until the tide turned, and the idea of guaranteed money in the 2030's started seeming pretty good. IT's a very real possibility that in 2030 ESPN and Fox turn to the Big 12 and reenact the Despicable Me scene "As far as money -- we have no money"

Quote:In the meantime, the B12 went through a crisis and the Pac collapsed. The prospect for media deal is not as rosy for middle tier conferences.

Now I see some people saying the ACC is overvalued and ESPN may not want to renew the contract.

A lot of that is driven by the idea that ESPN knows more than us, and ESPN built in an escape clause in 2027, and that ESPN hasn't decided yet whether to use it or not.

What do the green eyeshades at the Mouse know that we don't konw?

Quote:Remember the ACC has two sources of media money: money from main ESPN contract and the ACCN money.

My own opinion is that the ACC's main media contract is indeed undervalued. Some people (or trolls) only look at this contract and claim that the ACC's media money is the lowest among the P-leagues. However, the ACC also receives money from the ACCN. The ACC really wanted to have a dedicated TV channel and it started making money for the ACC schools ($9M per school last year). If the ACCN keeps growing as expected, I would say the ACC is adequately compensated.

I think I agree with your general point.

I would argyue that the ACC Network will now never reach the expectations they had at the beginning, because in the 2020's cable revenues go DOWN, not UP. But I'd still rather be the ACC for the next 10 years with guaranteed money past 2030 than the Big 12. IF the money keeps flowing, the ACC Network money will keep flowing. If the money dries up, well the ACC has guaranteed money for 13 years, the Big 12 has guaranteed money for 7 years.

Take the ACC's ~ $30m per year today, then increase it by 4.1% per year for 12 years. It will end up around $48.6m by 2036, and have an average of around $39m until 2036.

Sorry guys, looks like I fed in bad information in the original post. The ACC's comparison number to the others should be $39m rather than $30m, though their contract ends after all of the others renew, and B1G and Big 12 might get to renew twice before the ACC renews.

My point with the thread was that, rather than saying that the ACC is woefully underpaid today, I believe that a better way to view things is that the ACC is likely to lose ground to the rest of the P4 between now and 2036 due to the length of their contract.

edited OP with better explanation of current media rights contracts that all of the P4 have at present.