Before Washington lost its head coach, I was thinking there was some interesting similarities between 2022 TCU and 2023 Washington. Both had magical seasons with good offenses where they won some close games and managed to make it all the way to the NCG.

On top of that, I feel like Big Ten defenses were under-rated in 2023 and I have a feeling Washington is going to find out what real defense is in 2024. Kalen Deboer knew this, which is why he bailed for Bama.

But I guess it's possible Washington will do just fine in 2024. I have been wrong before (many times).

(01-16-2024 08:37 AM)goofus Wrote:  Before Washington lost its head coach, I was thinking there was some interesting similarities between 2022 TCU and 2023 Washington. Both had magical seasons with good offenses where they won some close games and managed to make it all the way to the NCG.

On top of that, I feel like Big Ten defenses were under-rated in 2023 and I have a feeling Washington is going to find out what real defense is in 2024. Kalen Deboer knew this, which is why he bailed for Bama.

But I guess it's possible Washington will do just fine in 2024. I have been wrong before (many times).

I wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped off to a 7-5, 8-4 type of team next year. They are losing a ton of guys, will have to adjust to a new conference, etc. I think Fisch is a good coach and will have resources he needs to get back to a 10 win team with a year or two.

I definitely think there are some similarities. First some perspective about our "drop off". Our final ESPN FPI rank for 2023 was # 26. Our 2022 ESPN FPI rank was 13. There was a slight quality drop off, but both seasons were heavily influenced by luck, albeit in different directions. 2022 we were the luckiest team in football according to teamrankings luck index, with 3.3 more wins than predicted. In 2023 we were one of the five unluckiest with -1.8 wins. Meanwhile Washington was the luckiest with 3.6 more wins than expected. Now, it is gambler's fallacy to expect that luck will completely swing the other way like it did for us- there is actually a chance Washington experiences the same positive luck again. Most likely their luck is some where in the middle, resulting in a 8 or 9 win season or so, assuming similar overall quality. There is a chance for a huge negative luck season like we did but it is pretty low chance.

(01-16-2024 08:37 AM)goofus Wrote:  Before Washington lost its head coach, I was thinking there was some interesting similarities between 2022 TCU and 2023 Washington. Both had magical seasons with good offenses where they won some close games and managed to make it all the way to the NCG.

On top of that, I feel like Big Ten defenses were under-rated in 2023 and I have a feeling Washington is going to find out what real defense is in 2024. Kalen Deboer knew this, which is why he bailed for Bama.

But I guess it's possible Washington will do just fine in 2024. I have been wrong before (many times).

The B1G wasn't very good this year. Michigan was great, OSU was very good, PSU was pretty good, and the other 11 were pedestrian at best. The Pac was FAR more competitive. Washington might have travel-related issues in the B1G, but the actual level of their competition, if it rises, will be more due to including Washington, Oregon and USCLA rather than Indiana, Nebraska and Northwestern.

(01-16-2024 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I definitely think there are some similarities. First some perspective about our "drop off". Our final ESPN FPI rank for 2023 was # 26. Our 2022 ESPN FPI rank was 13. There was a slight quality drop off, but both seasons were heavily influenced by luck, albeit in different directions. 2022 we were the luckiest team in football according to teamrankings luck index, with 3.3 more wins than predicted. In 2023 we were one of the five unluckiest with -1.8 wins. Meanwhile Washington was the luckiest with 3.6 more wins than expected. Now, it is gambler's fallacy to expect that luck will completely swing the other way like it did for us- there is actually a chance Washington experiences the same positive luck again. Most likely their luck is some where in the middle, resulting in a 8 or 9 win season or so, assuming similar overall quality. There is a chance for a huge negative luck season like we did but it is pretty low chance.

Washington will have a similar talent exodus, not due to graduations/NFL but rather transfers. So, their luck might regress to the mean, but their expected wins should be a bit lower next year, as well. I was kind of surprised that they didn't just promote the OC.

(01-16-2024 10:58 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-16-2024 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I definitely think there are some similarities. First some perspective about our "drop off". Our final ESPN FPI rank for 2023 was # 26. Our 2022 ESPN FPI rank was 13. There was a slight quality drop off, but both seasons were heavily influenced by luck, albeit in different directions. 2022 we were the luckiest team in football according to teamrankings luck index, with 3.3 more wins than predicted. In 2023 we were one of the five unluckiest with -1.8 wins. Meanwhile Washington was the luckiest with 3.6 more wins than expected. Now, it is gambler's fallacy to expect that luck will completely swing the other way like it did for us- there is actually a chance Washington experiences the same positive luck again. Most likely their luck is some where in the middle, resulting in a 8 or 9 win season or so, assuming similar overall quality. There is a chance for a huge negative luck season like we did but it is pretty low chance.

Washington will have a similar talent exodus, not due to graduations/NFL but rather transfers. So, their luck might regress to the mean, but their expected wins should be a bit lower next year, as well. I was kind of surprised that they didn't just promote the OC.

On the flip side, Fisch is bringing much of his team to UW.

(01-16-2024 10:58 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-16-2024 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I definitely think there are some similarities. First some perspective about our "drop off". Our final ESPN FPI rank for 2023 was # 26. Our 2022 ESPN FPI rank was 13. There was a slight quality drop off, but both seasons were heavily influenced by luck, albeit in different directions. 2022 we were the luckiest team in football according to teamrankings luck index, with 3.3 more wins than predicted. In 2023 we were one of the five unluckiest with -1.8 wins. Meanwhile Washington was the luckiest with 3.6 more wins than expected. Now, it is gambler's fallacy to expect that luck will completely swing the other way like it did for us- there is actually a chance Washington experiences the same positive luck again. Most likely their luck is some where in the middle, resulting in a 8 or 9 win season or so, assuming similar overall quality. There is a chance for a huge negative luck season like we did but it is pretty low chance.

Washington will have a similar talent exodus, not due to graduations/NFL but rather transfers. So, their luck might regress to the mean, but their expected wins should be a bit lower next year, as well. I was kind of surprised that they didn't just promote the OC.

Washington is going to have a talent exodus to the NFL. This team was loaded with NFL talent. The 2024 NFL mock draft below has four Washington Huskies players going in the first round.
https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-n...cago-bears
Their 2019 & 2020 recruiting classes were terrific, and they added Penix through the transfer portal. Jedd Fisch is going to need to quickly rebuild through the transfer portal for the 2024 season. Washington's first five games next season are all winnable games:

Weber State
Eastern Michigan
Washington State
Northwestern
at Rutgers

Game 6 is against Michigan in Seattle. Fisch is a better recruiter than DeBoer and that will help in the long run. He just needs to get through this first season, which will be tough once he gets past Game 5. Arizona had a players-only meeting that was led by star quarterback Noah Fifita and star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona receivers coach Kevin Cummings played and coached under Brent Brennan. It appears that Fifita and McMillan may be staying in Tucson.

TCU put together a special season in 2022, but they did not have the talent that UW had. They had one first round pick, wide receiver Quentin Johnston, a first-round bust to this point. Steve Avila, a 2nd round pick of the Rams, started every game as a rookie at left guard and played well. Derius Davis, a 4th round pick of the Chargers, was a 2nd-team All-Pro as a returner. He is not much of a receiver at this point. The Chargers drafted TCU QB Max Duggan in the 7th round, while he is a good athlete, he has got a lot of work to do to be able to play in the NFL.

They lost just about everything off this team. I think a drop off is to be expected.

We've lost pretty much everyone, either to the draft or to the portal, so yeah, we're going to be a hot mess next year.

(01-16-2024 08:37 AM)goofus Wrote:  Before Washington lost its head coach, I was thinking there was some interesting similarities between 2022 TCU and 2023 Washington. Both had magical seasons with good offenses where they won some close games and managed to make it all the way to the NCG.

On top of that, I feel like Big Ten defenses were under-rated in 2023 and I have a feeling Washington is going to find out what real defense is in 2024. Kalen Deboer knew this, which is why he bailed for Bama.

But I guess it's possible Washington will do just fine in 2024. I have been wrong before (many times).

Big 10-6 defenses were overrated. It's easy to pad stats when most of the conference has trash offenses.

Before this season I would have told you this years Huskies team was probably a 10-2 maybe 11-1 team, in order for them to go 12-0 things had to go almost perfect and they did. With the loss of all the NFL talent and their coaching staff, this will probably be a 7-5 or 8-4 team. A drop yes but it has a lot less to do with the B1G and a lot more to do with the Huskies going through a transition year. If coach Fisch does what he did at Arizona they will be fine.

(01-16-2024 11:44 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-16-2024 10:58 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-16-2024 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I definitely think there are some similarities. First some perspective about our "drop off". Our final ESPN FPI rank for 2023 was # 26. Our 2022 ESPN FPI rank was 13. There was a slight quality drop off, but both seasons were heavily influenced by luck, albeit in different directions. 2022 we were the luckiest team in football according to teamrankings luck index, with 3.3 more wins than predicted. In 2023 we were one of the five unluckiest with -1.8 wins. Meanwhile Washington was the luckiest with 3.6 more wins than expected. Now, it is gambler's fallacy to expect that luck will completely swing the other way like it did for us- there is actually a chance Washington experiences the same positive luck again. Most likely their luck is some where in the middle, resulting in a 8 or 9 win season or so, assuming similar overall quality. There is a chance for a huge negative luck season like we did but it is pretty low chance.

Washington will have a similar talent exodus, not due to graduations/NFL but rather transfers. So, their luck might regress to the mean, but their expected wins should be a bit lower next year, as well. I was kind of surprised that they didn't just promote the OC.

On the flip side, Fisch is bringing much of his team to UW.

I've been hearing Arizonas QB and top WR are going to stay, granted throw enough $$ at them and they will probably make the move.

(01-17-2024 02:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

This will be the new normal. Lose your coach, lose the whole starting lineup.

some of those players were leaving anyway because they declared for the NFL.

but I feel like there's a lot of transferring for the sake of transferring going on.

(01-17-2024 04:53 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  some of those players were leaving anyway because they declared for the NFL.

but I feel like there's a lot of transferring for the sake of transferring going on.

And entering the portal doesn't mean they are transferring, either. Need to be re-recruited and looking for a better NIL deal.