(01-01-2024 10:08 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 07:26 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 06:00 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 03:49 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 03:03 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Why would OSU and WSU join the WCC for non-football and play independent in football rather than join the MWC as full members in both?

because they don't want to be associated with the G5 in football

Well, they're going to be independents for a but because the ACC and the Big XII aren't calling them up offering them membership.

Hope is powerful thing. As long as OSU and WSU remain independent in football and play at least half of their schedules against P4 schools, they’ll be able to argue (as BYU did) that they’re still a step above the G5 in the pecking order, and keep alive the hope that they have a leg up in landing future invitations to rejoin the power conference ranks.

I think the moment they move ahead with rebuilding the Pac with some combination of MWC and AAC schools, they’re relegating themselves to G5 (or G6) status, and their likelihood of ever being called back up will be seriously diminished.

The better option is to form a conference which will almost always get the play-off bid. In that case you become a de-facto M3. I suspect that approach is what they do.

We shall see.

(01-01-2024 10:04 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 01:31 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I think it’s more likely that OSU and WSU will opt for the BYU model. They’ll finish extracting as many dollars from the Pac as they can and then shut down the conference, go independent in football, and join the WCC as full members in non-football sports.

I also expect FSU’s lawsuit against the ACC to fail and the school to resign itself to staying put a few more years until the cost of exiting is less enormous.

That will bring an end to FBS realignment for a short time, until the next game-changing development in the evolution of college athletics comes along.

Martin Stadium isn’t near big enough for WSU to go independent. LaVell Edwards stadium seats 63,470. Martin Stadium seats 32,952. Fresno seats 10K more.

Reser Stadium is not much better with a capacity of 35,578.

Neither of those pack in enough fans to pay the guarantees needed to go independent and fill out an independent schedule.

Boise State seats 36,000 + but they got over 38,000 against Fresno State. They do have better fan support if they play home games against tougher competition.

(01-01-2024 11:37 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  After doing some thinking, I believe we will have an answer to the WSU and OSU conundrum sooner rather than later.

WOSU are going to rebuild the Pac-12. The league will consist of 10 all-sports members and the TV payout will be similar to or just slightly higher than that of the AAC. (The number 10 is chosen because that gives the highest TV payout.) Therefore, it will be prohibitive for any American school to move west.

The Pac-12 invites Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico to complete the 10-team lineup.

C-USA has been patiently waiting on an answer from UMass, but sees the destruction in the MW as an opportunity. It invites Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State to get to 14 members.

As a result of these moves, Hawaii goes independent in football.

UMass attempts to find a conference home, but is unable so they continue to be independent.

This competes realignment for the next few years at the FBS level.

The WCC at this point is back down to 9 members. The league decides to expand to attempt to improve the basketball product. The league invites Grand Canyon to get to 10 members.

Nevada and Utah State are too valuable to be left out of a new Pac-12.

TV partners will want the Utah market, and Nevada offers a good market and good support.


And if they don't, the MWC remainers would not dissolve - they have a lot of buyout money they'd be passing up.

Invite NMSU and UTEP
Reach into FCS for the Montana schools and Idaho in first wave, followed by a couple more TBD FCS invites. Hawaii would remain a football member.

(01-02-2024 12:34 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 11:37 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  After doing some thinking, I believe we will have an answer to the WSU and OSU conundrum sooner rather than later.

WOSU are going to rebuild the Pac-12. The league will consist of 10 all-sports members and the TV payout will be similar to or just slightly higher than that of the AAC. (The number 10 is chosen because that gives the highest TV payout.) Therefore, it will be prohibitive for any American school to move west.

The Pac-12 invites Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico to complete the 10-team lineup.

C-USA has been patiently waiting on an answer from UMass, but sees the destruction in the MW as an opportunity. It invites Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State to get to 14 members.

As a result of these moves, Hawaii goes independent in football.

UMass attempts to find a conference home, but is unable so they continue to be independent.

This competes realignment for the next few years at the FBS level.

The WCC at this point is back down to 9 members. The league decides to expand to attempt to improve the basketball product. The league invites Grand Canyon to get to 10 members.

Nevada and Utah State are too valuable to be left out of a new Pac-12.

TV partners will want the Utah market, and Nevada offers a good market and good support.


And if they don't, the MWC remainers would not dissolve - they have a lot of buyout money they'd be passing up.

Invite NMSU and UTEP
Reach into FCS for the Montana schools and Idaho in first wave, followed by a couple more TBD FCS invites. Hawaii would remain a football member.

Reno is growing as well.

(01-01-2024 12:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the PAC rebuild is increasingly likely. It was very telling that they couldn’t reach an agreement with the MWC for Olympic sports. There must be at least 6 MWC schools willing to pay to join a more exclusive PAC rather than merge with them for free.

I’m not sold on your line up. I wouldn’t put it past them to go after UNT and UTSA for a Texas presence.

Wash St
Ore St
Boise St
Gonzaga*
Fresno St
San Diego St
UNLV
Colorado St
AFA
UTSA
UNT

Most importantly for TV deals and what not it's still the 5th best FB conference in the country in a sport where conference rank matters.

(01-02-2024 12:34 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 11:37 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  After doing some thinking, I believe we will have an answer to the WSU and OSU conundrum sooner rather than later.

WOSU are going to rebuild the Pac-12. The league will consist of 10 all-sports members and the TV payout will be similar to or just slightly higher than that of the AAC. (The number 10 is chosen because that gives the highest TV payout.) Therefore, it will be prohibitive for any American school to move west.

The Pac-12 invites Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico to complete the 10-team lineup.

C-USA has been patiently waiting on an answer from UMass, but sees the destruction in the MW as an opportunity. It invites Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State to get to 14 members.

As a result of these moves, Hawaii goes independent in football.

UMass attempts to find a conference home, but is unable so they continue to be independent.

This competes realignment for the next few years at the FBS level.

The WCC at this point is back down to 9 members. The league decides to expand to attempt to improve the basketball product. The league invites Grand Canyon to get to 10 members.

Nevada and Utah State are too valuable to be left out of a new Pac-12.

TV partners will want the Utah market, and Nevada offers a good market and good support.


And if they don't, the MWC remainers would not dissolve - they have a lot of buyout money they'd be passing up.

Invite NMSU and UTEP
Reach into FCS for the Montana schools and Idaho in first wave, followed by a couple more TBD FCS invites. Hawaii would remain a football member.

Utah is a state, not a market.

SLC MSA is a market with about 1.2 million people.
Provo-Orem MSA is a market with over 500,000 people.

SLC and and Provo-Orem are adjacent and part of the SLC-Provo-Ogden Combined Statistical Area which has 2.7 million people.

Logan is the principal city of the Logan MSA, which includes 147,908 people. Doesn't seem like a needle mover.

(01-02-2024 04:25 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 12:34 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-01-2024 11:37 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  After doing some thinking, I believe we will have an answer to the WSU and OSU conundrum sooner rather than later.

WOSU are going to rebuild the Pac-12. The league will consist of 10 all-sports members and the TV payout will be similar to or just slightly higher than that of the AAC. (The number 10 is chosen because that gives the highest TV payout.) Therefore, it will be prohibitive for any American school to move west.

The Pac-12 invites Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico to complete the 10-team lineup.

C-USA has been patiently waiting on an answer from UMass, but sees the destruction in the MW as an opportunity. It invites Utah State, Nevada, and San Jose State to get to 14 members.

As a result of these moves, Hawaii goes independent in football.

UMass attempts to find a conference home, but is unable so they continue to be independent.

This competes realignment for the next few years at the FBS level.

The WCC at this point is back down to 9 members. The league decides to expand to attempt to improve the basketball product. The league invites Grand Canyon to get to 10 members.

Nevada and Utah State are too valuable to be left out of a new Pac-12.

TV partners will want the Utah market, and Nevada offers a good market and good support.


And if they don't, the MWC remainers would not dissolve - they have a lot of buyout money they'd be passing up.

Invite NMSU and UTEP
Reach into FCS for the Montana schools and Idaho in first wave, followed by a couple more TBD FCS invites. Hawaii would remain a football member.

Utah is a state, not a market.

SLC MSA is a market with about 1.2 million people.
Provo-Orem MSA is a market with over 500,000 people.

SLC and and Provo-Orem are adjacent and part of the SLC-Provo-Ogden Combined Statistical Area which has 2.7 million people.

Logan is the principal city of the Logan MSA, which includes 147,908 people. Doesn't seem like a needle mover.

Besides being an R1 Land Grant (Utah's only one, which means it has a state-wide campus presence), it is a large university with students and alumni from across the state.