(12-26-2023 07:28 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  Neither OSU or Wazzu wwould survive long term as a FB independent. The thought of that is laughable.

Why? BYU made it work for 12 years. UConn and UMass are making it work, although there are rumblings that UMass may receive a CUSA invitation soon.

Let's assume for a moment that neither OSU or WSU is blessed with a fortuitous unexpected power conference invitation in the next two years. With that scenario off the table, I think the deciding factor in whether OSU and WSU could make independence work is the extent to which they're able to make peace with their former Pac conference mates and line up games against them.

That shouldn't be difficult, since those former Pac schools will be playing a lot of future conference road games east of the Rockies, and therefore will be looking for OOC opponents in the Far West. If given a choice between playing an OOC game against OSU or WSU versus an MWC opponent, which do you think Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, et al. will typically prefer? Especially in the 12-team CFP playoff era, where strength of schedule will be an important factor in earning at-large bids?

By embracing the BYU strategy -- going independent, signing up as many power conference football opponents as possible, and continuing to maintain the perception for as long as possible that they are a step above G5 status -- both OSU and WSU would likely be able to negotiate better media rights payouts than they would receive in a rebuilt Pac watered down with G5 members. Moreover this should give them a continued leg up over G5 schools in recruiting, which would help them sustain a level of competitiveness that would at least keep them in the conversation for future power conference invitations.

If OSU and WSU decide to follow through with rebuilding the Pac instead, the harsh reality is that the moment they sign up any collection of G5 schools to join them, they will be dooming their football programs to G5 (or more accurately G6) status. Consequently their future likelihood of ever receiving an invitation into a power conference will plummet to near zero.

(12-21-2023 02:24 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  If the 2-year deal with the MWC allows poaching when it is over, and the PAC-2 can offer more than the AAC at that point, a "best of the rest" conference under the PAC banner makes sense (though that is a couple of big "ifs")...

Washington St
Oregon St
Colorado State
Air Force
Fresno
SDSU
UNLV
Wyoming

Tulane
Memphis
USF
North Texas
UTSA
Rice
Navy
Army

I’m thinking something like ^this^.

That is if OWaSU are unable to buy their way into the Big12…and the Big12 even be willing to. And also if Pac2 has a big enough war chest and can move over last 4 years of Pac12’s NCAAT basketball credits with them to the Big12.

Could also be this. With 16 (8West+8East) in basketball and all other sports. 20 teams for football….

** = football only

**Hawaii
**Air Force *MVC all other sports?
Wasu
Oregon St
Boise St
Fresno St
San Diego St
UNLV
Colo St
New Mexico

**Army
**Navy
ECU
Georgia St
USF
FAU
Memphis
Tulane
Rice
UTSA

Football….

~ 3 OOC
~ no divisions
~ 6 in-region conf games
~ 2 X-region conf games
~ 4-team conf playoff (16 other teams play 1 flex game in-region as 12th game.
~ Might have to start week zero

Men’s basketball….

~ 8 West Div, 8 East Div
~ 14 division games
~ 4 X-division games, where top 4 from each division play each other and same with the bottom 4….this would be determined per last 2 to 4 years’ performance, which 4 of each division is the best 4. And would bolster SOS for the top basketball programs (re-determined every 2 years who top 4 in each division is…sort of an in-house quasi-relegation).

For the longest I have said merge and they can still work toward that, but the more I think about it, the more I am starting to feel they should keep as much flexibility as they can without burning bridges. Simply, things are moving too fast. If FSU, through their suit, creates a way to blow up a GOR... unintended consequence can and will be felt. Without the funds of the Bluebloods, staying flexible and adapting at least gives you a chance.

(12-27-2023 12:10 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(12-26-2023 07:28 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  Neither OSU or Wazzu wwould survive long term as a FB independent. The thought of that is laughable.

Why? BYU made it work for 12 years. UConn and UMass are making it work, although there are rumblings that UMass may receive a CUSA invitation soon.

Let's assume for a moment that neither OSU or WSU is blessed with a fortuitous unexpected power conference invitation in the next two years. With that scenario off the table, I think the deciding factor in whether OSU and WSU could make independence work is the extent to which they're able to make peace with their former Pac conference mates and line up games against them.

That shouldn't be difficult, since those former Pac schools will be playing a lot of future conference road games east of the Rockies, and therefore will be looking for OOC opponents in the Far West. If given a choice between playing an OOC game against OSU or WSU versus an MWC opponent, which do you think Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, et al. will typically prefer? Especially in the 12-team CFP playoff era, where strength of schedule will be an important factor in earning at-large bids?

By embracing the BYU strategy -- going independent, signing up as many power conference football opponents as possible, and continuing to maintain the perception for as long as possible that they are a step above G5 status -- both OSU and WSU would likely be able to negotiate better media rights payouts than they would receive in a rebuilt Pac watered down with G5 members. Moreover this should give them a continued leg up over G5 schools in recruiting, which would help them sustain a level of competitiveness that would at least keep them in the conversation for future power conference invitations.

If OSU and WSU decide to follow through with rebuilding the Pac instead, the harsh reality is that the moment they sign up any collection of G5 schools to join them, they will be dooming their football programs to G5 (or more accurately G6) status. Consequently their future likelihood of ever receiving an invitation into a power conference will plummet to near zero.

I wouldn't go that far, but you do make a good point about Football Independence and their potential to basically sign up for a slate of former Pac opponents. Perhaps one of the reasons for the strangely easy Pac Lawsuit settlement was some as-yet-unannounced future games planned?

(12-27-2023 03:27 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  

(12-21-2023 02:24 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  If the 2-year deal with the MWC allows poaching when it is over, and the PAC-2 can offer more than the AAC at that point, a "best of the rest" conference under the PAC banner makes sense (though that is a couple of big "ifs")...

Washington St
Oregon St
Colorado State
Air Force
Fresno
SDSU
UNLV
Wyoming

Tulane
Memphis
USF
North Texas
UTSA
Rice
Navy
Army

I’m thinking something like ^this^.

That is if OWaSU are unable to buy their way into the Big12…and the Big12 even be willing to. And also if Pac2 has a big enough war chest and can move over last 4 years of Pac12’s NCAAT basketball credits with them to the Big12.

Could also be this. With 16 (8West+8East) in basketball and all other sports. 20 teams for football….

** = football only

**Hawaii
**Air Force *MVC all other sports?
Wasu
Oregon St
Boise St
Fresno St
San Diego St
UNLV
Colo St
New Mexico

**Army
**Navy
ECU
Georgia St
USF
FAU
Memphis
Tulane
Rice
UTSA

Football….

~ 3 OOC
~ no divisions
~ 6 in-region conf games
~ 2 X-region conf games
~ 4-team conf playoff (16 other teams play 1 flex game in-region as 12th game.
~ Might have to start week zero

Men’s basketball….

~ 8 West Div, 8 East Div
~ 14 division games
~ 4 X-division games, where top 4 from each division play each other and same with the bottom 4….this would be determined per last 2 to 4 years’ performance, which 4 of each division is the best 4. And would bolster SOS for the top basketball programs (re-determined every 2 years who top 4 in each division is…sort of an in-house quasi-relegation).

I would think AFA would go either WAC or Summit...at least WAC has TX schools which the service academies like to recruit...