With Texas well on their way to a win, the CFP scenario is very simple.

Washington eliminated Oregon.
The Texas win eliminates Ohio State.

1) Georgia - needs a win or a loss by both Michigan and Florida State
2) Michigan - needs a win or a win by Georgia and a loss by Florida State
3) Washington - already in
4) Florida state - must win
5) Texas - needs a loss by Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State
6) Alabama - needs a win and a loss by Florida State or Michigan

I think that is pretty good. Texas is making a strong statement that they belong.

I think there is more to see in the SEC Championship Game. If Alabama wins a sloppy game the above is probably correct. If Alabama wins a game while Georgia puts up a NC-caliber performance, Texas may be on the outside.

And I still think there is a chance Florida State looks disorganized in a win and falls out. OP has the most likely order, but I still want to see how these teams preform/look against a top team.

(12-02-2023 03:05 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  With Texas well on their way to a win, the CFP scenario is very simple.

Washington eliminated Oregon.
The Texas win eliminates Ohio State.

1) Georgia - needs a win or a loss by both Michigan and Florida State
2) Michigan - needs a win or a win by Georgia and a loss by Florida State
3) Washington - already in
4) Florida state - must win
5) Texas - needs a loss by Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State
6) Alabama - needs a win and a loss by Florida State or Michigan

I think I agree. I predicted a couple weeks ago that an SEC champ Alabama would vault Texas, and it’s possible that they still would. However, after that miracle escape against a .500 Auburn team that was blown out by NM State the week before…I think it would be a 4 way race between Ohio St, Texas, Alabama and Georgia. I’d probably lean Texas there, despite my bias against them, but you could make a strong case for any of the others, too.

(12-02-2023 03:59 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 03:05 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  With Texas well on their way to a win, the CFP scenario is very simple.

Washington eliminated Oregon.
The Texas win eliminates Ohio State.

1) Georgia - needs a win or a loss by both Michigan and Florida State
2) Michigan - needs a win or a win by Georgia and a loss by Florida State
3) Washington - already in
4) Florida state - must win
5) Texas - needs a loss by Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State
6) Alabama - needs a win and a loss by Florida State or Michigan

I think I agree. I predicted a couple weeks ago that an SEC champ Alabama would vault Texas, and it’s possible that they still would. However, after that miracle escape against a .500 Auburn team that was blown out by NM State the week before…I think it would be a 4 way race between Ohio St, Texas, Alabama and Georgia. I’d probably lean Texas there, despite my bias against them, but you could make a strong case for any of the others, too.

Georgia already in. It doesn't matter win or lose today.

So excited for the 12-team playoff next season!! Glad this 4-team BS is ending in a few weeks.

(12-02-2023 04:01 PM)Blust3 Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 03:59 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 03:05 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  With Texas well on their way to a win, the CFP scenario is very simple.

Washington eliminated Oregon.
The Texas win eliminates Ohio State.

1) Georgia - needs a win or a loss by both Michigan and Florida State
2) Michigan - needs a win or a win by Georgia and a loss by Florida State
3) Washington - already in
4) Florida state - must win
5) Texas - needs a loss by Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State
6) Alabama - needs a win and a loss by Florida State or Michigan

I think I agree. I predicted a couple weeks ago that an SEC champ Alabama would vault Texas, and it’s possible that they still would. However, after that miracle escape against a .500 Auburn team that was blown out by NM State the week before…I think it would be a 4 way race between Ohio St, Texas, Alabama and Georgia. I’d probably lean Texas there, despite my bias against them, but you could make a strong case for any of the others, too.

Georgia already in. It doesn't matter win or lose today.

Not at all true. UGA with a loss would be behind Bama (conference champ and head-head), Texas (conference champ and ahead of Bama due to head-head), and UW. They would also be behind undefeated conference champs Michigan and/or FSU. They would need both of FSU and Michigan to lose.

(12-02-2023 04:01 PM)Blust3 Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 03:59 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 03:05 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  With Texas well on their way to a win, the CFP scenario is very simple.

Washington eliminated Oregon.
The Texas win eliminates Ohio State.

1) Georgia - needs a win or a loss by both Michigan and Florida State
2) Michigan - needs a win or a win by Georgia and a loss by Florida State
3) Washington - already in
4) Florida state - must win
5) Texas - needs a loss by Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State
6) Alabama - needs a win and a loss by Florida State or Michigan

I think I agree. I predicted a couple weeks ago that an SEC champ Alabama would vault Texas, and it’s possible that they still would. However, after that miracle escape against a .500 Auburn team that was blown out by NM State the week before…I think it would be a 4 way race between Ohio St, Texas, Alabama and Georgia. I’d probably lean Texas there, despite my bias against them, but you could make a strong case for any of the others, too.

Georgia already in. It doesn't matter win or lose today.

Are they? Alabama would have 2 top 10 wins, 2 other ranked wins, and a top 10 loss. Georgia would also be 2-1 vs the top 10, but have only 1 other ranked win. Texas? 1-0 against top 10, 3-1 against ranked opponents. OSU? 2-1 against ranked opponents, only school without a top 10 win. Also they didn’t even make the CCG. OSU goes out in the first round, then it comes down to Georgia, Bama and Texas. Bama has looked the weakest of the 3, but they have also had the toughest schedule. Do they really get left out even with an SEC title? In this crazy year, it’s possible, perhaps even likely. They might win and still end up behind both Georgia and Texas.

(12-02-2023 03:59 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 03:05 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  With Texas well on their way to a win, the CFP scenario is very simple.

Washington eliminated Oregon.
The Texas win eliminates Ohio State.

1) Georgia - needs a win or a loss by both Michigan and Florida State
2) Michigan - needs a win or a win by Georgia and a loss by Florida State
3) Washington - already in
4) Florida state - must win
5) Texas - needs a loss by Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State
6) Alabama - needs a win and a loss by Florida State or Michigan

I think I agree. I predicted a couple weeks ago that an SEC champ Alabama would vault Texas, and it’s possible that they still would. However, after that miracle escape against a .500 Auburn team that was blown out by NM State the week before…I think it would be a 4 way race between Ohio St, Texas, Alabama and Georgia. I’d probably lean Texas there, despite my bias against them, but you could make a strong case for any of the others, too.

I don’t think Alabama would get punished for the close Iron Bowl win. The Iron Bowl is just different. Records do not matter in that game. Besides, Auburn probably practiced for Alabama for two weeks instead of preparing for NMSU.

Washington and Texas are in.

Michigan is in with a win.
Florida State is in with a win.

Alabama needs one of those two to lose.
Georgia needs both to lose.

(12-02-2023 07:24 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  Washington and Texas are in.

Michigan is in with a win.
Florida State is maybe in with a win.

Alabama is 95% in.
Georgia needs both to lose.

Corrected.

(12-02-2023 07:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 07:24 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  Washington and Texas are in.

Michigan is in with a win.
Florida State is maybe in with a win.

Alabama is 95% in.
Georgia needs both to lose.

Corrected.

FSU was already ahead of Alabama. If they both win, both are conference champions, and FUS has the better record, FSU will be in (and likely will be ahead of Texas as well as Alabama)

Jerry Palm agrees. His CFP projections were just updated.

1) Michigan
2) Washington
3) Florida State
4) Texas
5) Alabama
6) Georgia

FWIW, he is now projecting Liberty into the NY6 with Tulane's pending loss.

If FSU and Michigan win, the CFB should be Washington, Michigan, FSU, and Texas. Texas beat Alabama. Alabama got lucky to win against Auburn.

(12-02-2023 07:43 PM)jarmzet Wrote:  If FSU and Michigan win, the CFB should be Washington, Michigan, FSU, and Texas. Texas beat Alabama. Alabama got lucky to win against Auburn.

Yeah, not buying it. Especially FSU moving up a spot. The committee is about to stick some lube up Seminole Nation’s you know what.

(12-02-2023 07:39 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 07:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(12-02-2023 07:24 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  Washington and Texas are in.

Michigan is in with a win.
Florida State is maybe in with a win.

Alabama is 95% in.
Georgia needs both to lose.

Corrected.

FSU was already ahead of Alabama. If they both win, both are conference champions, and FUS has the better record, FSU will be in (and likely will be ahead of Texas as well as Alabama)

Alabama added a win over the #1 team in the country. FSU would be adding a win over a team that got their asses whooped by Kentucky. Yeah, that matters.

I think the playoff is set. 1.Michigan 2.Washington 3.Texas 4.Alabama. The eye test will keep FSU out w/o their QB. So unless Iowa pulls off a stunner this is it.

If I were voting right now (before the 8:00 PM games):

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Oregon

Alabama has the best win (Georgia), followed by Texas (Alabama). Ohio State has the best loss (Michigan), followed by Alabama (Texas), then Georgia (Alabama), and Texas (Oklahoma)

(12-02-2023 07:58 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Alabama has the best win (Georgia), followed by Texas (Alabama). Ohio State has the best loss (Michigan), followed by Alabama (Texas), then Georgia (Alabama), and Texas (Oklahoma)

Alabama has the worst win too. They got lucky against Auburn.

Whatever permutations you come up with, one thing is true.

The SEC champion will not be left out of the playoffs.

I think Michigan has already clinched the game vs Iowa.