OK, so looks like we're not running the table.

Checking up on some math, there are 41 bowls and thus 82 slots.

By my math, I have 67 teams eligible, so there are 15 slots left open.

I ran through the 6-loss teams and there are 22 of them left. Also there's Navy at 5-5. If they get 6 wins they should be in, but I think at 5-6 if they lose they're out. (They play Army after the selections are made, right?) So that adds up to 23 teams who need to win next weekend to be in the bowls.

So that means we need 14 out of 23 to win (or at least 9 out of 23 to lose.)
All these teams are 5-6 unless noted otherwise.
2 of them are midweek. Tuesday, Eastern Michigan plays (3-8) Buffalo. So they'll probably win.
Thursday, Mississppi State plays 9-win Ole Miss. They'll probably lose.
If that holds, we'll go into Saturday needing 8 of these 21 teams to lose:
(I've bolded the games against teams with much better records)

at Noon, Central Michigan plays 10-1 Toledo
at Noon, TCU plays 9-2 Oklahoma
at Noon, Nebraska plays 9-2 Iowa
at Noon, Navy plays 9-2 SMU
at Noon, UCF plays 4-7 Houston
at Noon, NIU plays 1-10 Kent St
at 1pm, Rice plays 4-7 FAU
at 2pm, ODU plays 6-5 Ga St
at 2pm, Syracuse plays 4-7 Wake
at 3pm, Louisiana plays 2-9 ULM
at 3:30pm, BYU plays 8-3 Ok St
at 3:30pm, Illinois plays 6-5 Northwestern
at 3:30pm, Minnesota plays 6-5 Wisconsin
at 3:30pm, Marshall plays 6-5 Ark St
at 3:30pm, Utah State plays 4-7 New Mexico
at 3:30pm, Va Tech plays 3-8 UVA (I just can't imagine rooting for UVa under any circumstances))
at 4pm, Washington St plays 11-0 Washington
at 7pm, Florida plays 11-0 FSU

at 7:30pm, South Carolina plays 7-4 Clemson
at 7:30pm, USF plays 3-8 Charlotte
at 10:30pm, Cal plays 7-4 UCLA
at 11pm, Co State plays 4-7 Hawaii

So that makes 7 pretty likely losses out of 8 needed (again, assuming Mississippi State loses the Egg Bowl). Add to that a pair of 5-win teams playing 7-win teams, and 3 5-win teams playing 6-win teams, and it's pretty likely one of those will lose also.

So, we won't have a good sense of how it's going until probably 7pm next Saturday.

Until then, let's beat the nasty teal dye out of Coastal.

You do you, but I’m rooting for UVA to knock VT out of a bowl.

(11-19-2023 05:20 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  You do you, but I’m rooting for UVA to knock VT out of a bowl.

I'm not going to fault you for it. Plus UVA winning makes our resume look better. But... it's just not something I can do -- it's kinda personal for me.

(11-19-2023 05:28 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 05:20 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  You do you, but I’m rooting for UVA to knock VT out of a bowl.

I'm not going to fault you for it. Plus UVA winning makes our resume look better. But... it's just not something I can do -- it's kinda personal for me.

All season long I said that, but it truly means nothing, especially after losing yesterday. Our resume means nothing at this point, we’ll either get or not get the last vacant slot regardless of resume.

(11-19-2023 06:44 PM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 05:28 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 05:20 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  You do you, but I’m rooting for UVA to knock VT out of a bowl.

I'm not going to fault you for it. Plus UVA winning makes our resume look better. But... it's just not something I can do -- it's kinda personal for me.

All season long I said that, but it truly means nothing, especially after losing yesterday. Our resume means nothing at this point, we’ll either get or not get the last vacant slot regardless of resume.

I still disagree with your conclusion that "last ticket to the dance" means "last pick of dance partners". But if that's the case, then you're completely right. And I suppose if Liberty and Tulane lose, it might matter, but that's the remotest of possibilities. Anyway, eff those jabronis -- I hope tech beats them by 100.

(11-19-2023 07:08 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 06:44 PM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 05:28 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 05:20 PM)jmu007 Wrote:  You do you, but I’m rooting for UVA to knock VT out of a bowl.

I'm not going to fault you for it. Plus UVA winning makes our resume look better. But... it's just not something I can do -- it's kinda personal for me.

All season long I said that, but it truly means nothing, especially after losing yesterday. Our resume means nothing at this point, we’ll either get or not get the last vacant slot regardless of resume.

I still disagree with your conclusion that "last ticket to the dance" means "last pick of dance partners". But if that's the case, then you're completely right. And I suppose if Liberty and Tulane lose, it might matter, but that's the remotest of possibilities. Anyway, eff those jabronis -- I hope tech beats them by 100.

There is no pick order and last pick. The bowls and conferences slot their teams based on contractual agreements. Then the at-large spots get filled out including about 15 spots in "ESPN" bowls.

(11-19-2023 05:18 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  OK, so looks like we're not running the table.

Checking up on some math, there are 41 bowls and thus 82 slots.

By my math, I have 67 teams eligible, so there are 15 slots left open.

I ran through the 6-loss teams and there are 22 of them left. Also there's Navy at 5-5. If they get 6 wins they should be in, but I think at 5-6 if they lose they're out. (They play Army after the selections are made, right?) So that adds up to 23 teams who need to win next weekend to be in the bowls.

So that means we need 14 out of 23 to win (or at least 9 out of 23 to lose.)
All these teams are 5-6 unless noted otherwise.
2 of them are midweek. Tuesday, Eastern Michigan plays (3-8) Buffalo. So they'll probably win.
Thursday, Mississppi State plays 9-win Ole Miss. They'll probably lose.
If that holds, we'll go into Saturday needing 8 of these 21 teams to lose:
(I've bolded the games against teams with much better records)

at Noon, Central Michigan plays 10-1 Toledo
at Noon, TCU plays 9-2 Oklahoma
at Noon, Nebraska plays 9-2 Iowa
at Noon, Navy plays 9-2 SMU
at Noon, UCF plays 4-7 Houston
at Noon, NIU plays 1-10 Kent St
at 1pm, Rice plays 4-7 FAU
at 2pm, Syracuse plays 4-7 Wake
at 3pm, Louisiana plays 2-9 ULM
at 3:30pm, BYU plays 8-3 Ok St
at 3:30pm, Illinois plays 6-5 Northwestern
at 3:30pm, Minnesota plays 6-5 Wisconsin
at 3:30pm, Marshall plays 6-5 Ark St
at 3:30pm, Utah State plays 4-7 New Mexico
at 3:30pm, Va Tech plays 3-8 UVA (I just can't imagine rooting for UVa under any circumstances))
at 4pm, Washington St plays 11-0 Washington
at 7pm, Florida plays 11-0 FSU

at 7:30pm, South Carolina plays 7-4 Clemson
at 7:30pm, USF plays 3-8 Charlotte
at 10:30pm, Cal plays 7-4 UCLA
at 11pm, Co State plays 4-7 Hawaii

So that makes 7 pretty likely losses out of 8 needed (again, assuming Mississippi State loses the Egg Bowl). Add to that a pair of 5-win teams playing 7-win teams, and 3 5-win teams playing 6-win teams, and it's pretty likely one of those will lose also.

So, we won't have a good sense of how it's going until probably 7pm next Saturday.

Until then, let's beat the nasty teal dye out of Coastal.

You’re missing 1 game somewhere. McMurphy has them listed here (24). Also Navy is out if they lose to SMU this week. The Army Navy game does not count towards Navy bowl eligibility as the game is played after bid Sunday. A 6-7 team (like in a season if Hawaii plays 13 games they have to win 7 to be automatically eligible). Transitional winning record JMU gets picked up before anyone that wins 6 games playing 13 games just like they get picked up before 5-7 APR teams.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023...ttMcMurphy

Georgia State at ODU

(11-19-2023 11:15 PM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  Georgia State at ODU

Good catch, thanks. I'll edit the original post.

Edit seems like 5-6 Navy would not be eliminated from a bowl game. Even though Army Navy game is played after bowl bids go out on Dec 3 I’m guessing Armed Forces bowl will keep standing invitation for Navy but if they lose to Army and end 5-7 it would seem that a late invitation for that bowl would go to someone else.

(11-20-2023 10:36 AM)Johnnychimpo Wrote:  Edit seems like 5-6 Navy would not be eliminated from a bowl game. Even though Army Navy game is played after bowl bids go out on Dec 3 I’m guessing Armed Forces bowl will keep standing invitation for Navy but if they lose to Army and end 5-7 it would seem that a late invitation for that bowl would go to someone else.

Yeah, that debate is going on elsewhere. I just hope Navy loses this week.