Here's where we stand:

JMU: Obviously, they need a vote. I think they will drop one conference game but if they get a vote they won't lose the division unless McCloud has a season-ending injury.

App State: They actually have a pretty good chance of winning the division if they could win out, but they won't win out.

Marshall: Here's the least-contrived (but still really contrived) scenario where they win the division with a tiebreaker over ODU:
Marshall wins the rest of their games.
Georgia Southern loses to Texas State, App, Marshall, beats ODU
Georgia State loses to JMU and ODU
Coastal loses to ODU and JMU

So basically, it's a four-way race:

Georgia Southern:
Conference Losses: 1 (JMU)
SBC Games Left: @Texas State, @Marshall, ODU, @App State

Coastal Carolina:
Conference Losses: 2 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: @ODU, Texas State, JMU

Georgia State:
Conference Losses: 2 (Troy, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: JMU, App State, @ODU

Old Dominion:
Conference Losses: 2 (Marshall, JMU)
SBC Games Left: Coastal, @Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Since GS is in the driver' seat, I'll build the scenarios around what happens to us.
 
On paper you might think Southern has the easiest schedule left but the bad news is it's 3 games on the road including to San Marcos where we've never had an easy win and App in a bitter rivalry game none of our fans are penciling in a win. I don't think a scenario where we are 3-1 in the last 4 games and don't win the division is overly realistic (that would require either App winning every game left or ODU winning every game left and us winning all 3 road games) so let's look at scenarios where GS is 2-2 in the final 4 games. I'm not picking 2 specific wins or 2 specific losses for us, just saying that's what's the most likely.

1. Georgia State does not hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left
2. Coastal doesn't hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left and needs Georgia State to take at least 1 loss.
3. ODU is the only East team that controls their own destiny other than Georgia Southern. They might can afford a loss to State or Coastal but Georgia Southern is definitely a must-win.

None of these 3 possibilities alone is all that likely but with all 3 of these teams playing each other the possibility of one happening isn't that small.

So what’s the tiebreaker rules? Obviously head to head if only two. More than two best record amongst the tied teams in head to head I’m guessing? What’s after that? Say ODU beats GASO and loses to GSU and we end up tied in conference record. We’re all 1-1 against the other two. What’s next?

(10-30-2023 10:10 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's where we stand:

JMU: Obviously, they need a vote. I think they will drop one conference game but if they get a vote they won't lose the division unless McCloud has a season-ending injury.

App State: They actually have a pretty good chance of winning the division if they could win out, but they won't win out.

Marshall: Here's the least-contrived (but still really contrived) scenario where they win the division with a tiebreaker over ODU:
Marshall wins the rest of their games.
Georgia Southern loses to Texas State, App, Marshall, beats ODU
Georgia State loses to JMU and ODU
Coastal loses to ODU and JMU

So basically, it's a four-way race:

Georgia Southern:
Conference Losses: 1 (JMU)
SBC Games Left: @Texas State, @Marshall, ODU, @App State

Coastal Carolina:
Conference Losses: 2 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: @ODU, Texas State, JMU

Georgia State:
Conference Losses: 2 (Troy, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: JMU, App State, @ODU

Old Dominion:
Conference Losses: 2 (Marshall, JMU)
SBC Games Left: Coastal, @Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Since GS is in the driver' seat, I'll build the scenarios around what happens to us.
 
On paper you might think Southern has the easiest schedule left but the bad news is it's 3 games on the road including to San Marcos where we've never had an easy win and App in a bitter rivalry game none of our fans are penciling in a win. I don't think a scenario where we are 3-1 in the last 4 games and don't win the division is overly realistic (that would require either App winning every game left or ODU winning every game left and us winning all 3 road games) so let's look at scenarios where GS is 2-2 in the final 4 games. I'm not picking 2 specific wins or 2 specific losses for us, just saying that's what's the most likely.

1. Georgia State does not hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left
2. Coastal doesn't hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left and needs Georgia State to take at least 1 loss.
3. ODU is the only East team that controls their own destiny other than Georgia Southern. They might can afford a loss to State or Coastal but Georgia Southern is definitely a must-win.

None of these 3 possibilities alone is all that likely but with all 3 of these teams playing each other the possibility of one happening isn't that small.

Thanks for putting this together. I might be in the minority but I believe Coastal is going to win out and might be the team that punches JMPoo in the mouth and ODU might end up 2-2 and qualify for a bowl and hopefully makes its way into one.

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)12thmonarch Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 10:10 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's where we stand:

JMU: Obviously, they need a vote. I think they will drop one conference game but if they get a vote they won't lose the division unless McCloud has a season-ending injury.

App State: They actually have a pretty good chance of winning the division if they could win out, but they won't win out.

Marshall: Here's the least-contrived (but still really contrived) scenario where they win the division with a tiebreaker over ODU:
Marshall wins the rest of their games.
Georgia Southern loses to Texas State, App, Marshall, beats ODU
Georgia State loses to JMU and ODU
Coastal loses to ODU and JMU

So basically, it's a four-way race:

Georgia Southern:
Conference Losses: 1 (JMU)
SBC Games Left: @Texas State, @Marshall, ODU, @App State

Coastal Carolina:
Conference Losses: 2 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: @ODU, Texas State, JMU

Georgia State:
Conference Losses: 2 (Troy, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: JMU, App State, @ODU

Old Dominion:
Conference Losses: 2 (Marshall, JMU)
SBC Games Left: Coastal, @Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Since GS is in the driver' seat, I'll build the scenarios around what happens to us.
 
On paper you might think Southern has the easiest schedule left but the bad news is it's 3 games on the road including to San Marcos where we've never had an easy win and App in a bitter rivalry game none of our fans are penciling in a win. I don't think a scenario where we are 3-1 in the last 4 games and don't win the division is overly realistic (that would require either App winning every game left or ODU winning every game left and us winning all 3 road games) so let's look at scenarios where GS is 2-2 in the final 4 games. I'm not picking 2 specific wins or 2 specific losses for us, just saying that's what's the most likely.

1. Georgia State does not hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left
2. Coastal doesn't hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left and needs Georgia State to take at least 1 loss.
3. ODU is the only East team that controls their own destiny other than Georgia Southern. They might can afford a loss to State or Coastal but Georgia Southern is definitely a must-win.

None of these 3 possibilities alone is all that likely but with all 3 of these teams playing each other the possibility of one happening isn't that small.

Thanks for putting this together. I might be in the minority but I believe Coastal is going to win out and might be the team that punches JMPoo in the mouth and ODU might end up 2-2 and qualify for a bowl and hopefully makes its way into one.

Well that would be an awesome scenario for us, especially how we started the year. I’d love to see it but we have a tough road ahead @ODU, vs TXST, and vs JMU.

Coastal Carolina.looks really strong right now. I think they are going to be a problem.

Georgia Southern has the "hardest" road with 3 of 4 on the road. Though they have the most potent passing game.

I think anyone who wins the East will take down Troy. The East is brutal this year.

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  So what’s the tiebreaker rules? Obviously head to head if only two. More than two best record amongst the tied teams in head to head I’m guessing? What’s after that? Say ODU beats GASO and loses to GSU and we end up tied in conference record. We’re all 1-1 against the other two. What’s next?

1. Head-to-head - No head-to-head
2. Final CPF rankings & win the SBC final weekend
3. Composite average of selected computer rankings (Multiple teams tied & a final SBC weekend loss)
4. None of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of SBC regular season, composite average of selected computer rankings
5. No teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, a composite average of selected computer rankings
6. If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common SBC opponents
7. If still tied, the team with the highest overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
8. Coin toss by the commissioner

(10-31-2023 08:00 AM)GS99-00 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  So what’s the tiebreaker rules? Obviously head to head if only two. More than two best record amongst the tied teams in head to head I’m guessing? What’s after that? Say ODU beats GASO and loses to GSU and we end up tied in conference record. We’re all 1-1 against the other two. What’s next?

1. Head-to-head - No head-to-head
2. Final CPF rankings & win the SBC final weekend
3. Composite average of selected computer rankings (Multiple teams tied & a final SBC weekend loss)
4. None of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of SBC regular season, composite average of selected computer rankings
5. No teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, a composite average of selected computer rankings
6. If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common SBC opponents
7. If still tied, the team with the highest overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
8. Coin toss by the commissioner

That's for hosting the CCG.

MULTIPLE TEAM TIE FOR THE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP:
If three or more teams are tied atop a division at the end of the season, the following criteria are used, until one team remains and declared the representative of the Championship game.
1. The team with the highest winning percentage in games played among the tied teams shall be declared the division champion;
2. If still tied, the team with the highest overall divisional winning percentage shall be the division champion.
3. If still tied, each team’s winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group,rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If still tied, combined highest winning percentage against all common non-divisional Conference opponents.
4. If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the division champion. If in that same scenario, the team that was the highest ranked team in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
5. If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, if the highest-ranked team wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, they will be declared the division champion. If the highest ranked team loses, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
6. If none of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
7. If no teams are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings going into the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
8. If still tied, the team with the highest overall (Conference and non-Conference) winning percentage against FBS teams shall be the division champion;
9. If still tied, the division champion will be determined by lot, conducted by the Commissioner. For all ties of three or more teams, the progression of the tiebreaker shall be followed until the champion amongst the tied is determined. If one team falls out of contention for the highest seed, the remaining teams will continue down the tiebreaker until the champion is determined.

(10-31-2023 08:53 AM)Klak Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:00 AM)GS99-00 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  So what’s the tiebreaker rules? Obviously head to head if only two. More than two best record amongst the tied teams in head to head I’m guessing? What’s after that? Say ODU beats GASO and loses to GSU and we end up tied in conference record. We’re all 1-1 against the other two. What’s next?

1. Head-to-head - No head-to-head
2. Final CPF rankings & win the SBC final weekend
3. Composite average of selected computer rankings (Multiple teams tied & a final SBC weekend loss)
4. None of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of SBC regular season, composite average of selected computer rankings
5. No teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, a composite average of selected computer rankings
6. If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common SBC opponents
7. If still tied, the team with the highest overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
8. Coin toss by the commissioner

That's for hosting the CCG.

MULTIPLE TEAM TIE FOR THE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP:
If three or more teams are tied atop a division at the end of the season, the following criteria are used, until one team remains and declared the representative of the Championship game.
1. The team with the highest winning percentage in games played among the tied teams shall be declared the division champion;
2. If still tied, the team with the highest overall divisional winning percentage shall be the division champion.
3. If still tied, each team’s winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group,rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If still tied, combined highest winning percentage against all common non-divisional Conference opponents.
4. If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the division champion. If in that same scenario, the team that was the highest ranked team in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
5. If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, if the highest-ranked team wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, they will be declared the division champion. If the highest ranked team loses, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
6. If none of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
7. If no teams are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings going into the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
8. If still tied, the team with the highest overall (Conference and non-Conference) winning percentage against FBS teams shall be the division champion;
9. If still tied, the division champion will be determined by lot, conducted by the Commissioner. For all ties of three or more teams, the progression of the tiebreaker shall be followed until the champion amongst the tied is determined. If one team falls out of contention for the highest seed, the remaining teams will continue down the tiebreaker until the champion is determined.

That makes more sense, thanks.

(10-31-2023 09:19 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:53 AM)Klak Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:00 AM)GS99-00 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  So what’s the tiebreaker rules? Obviously head to head if only two. More than two best record amongst the tied teams in head to head I’m guessing? What’s after that? Say ODU beats GASO and loses to GSU and we end up tied in conference record. We’re all 1-1 against the other two. What’s next?

1. Head-to-head - No head-to-head
2. Final CPF rankings & win the SBC final weekend
3. Composite average of selected computer rankings (Multiple teams tied & a final SBC weekend loss)
4. None of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of SBC regular season, composite average of selected computer rankings
5. No teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, a composite average of selected computer rankings
6. If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common SBC opponents
7. If still tied, the team with the highest overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
8. Coin toss by the commissioner

That's for hosting the CCG.

MULTIPLE TEAM TIE FOR THE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP:
If three or more teams are tied atop a division at the end of the season, the following criteria are used, until one team remains and declared the representative of the Championship game.
1. The team with the highest winning percentage in games played among the tied teams shall be declared the division champion;
2. If still tied, the team with the highest overall divisional winning percentage shall be the division champion.
3. If still tied, each team’s winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group,rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If still tied, combined highest winning percentage against all common non-divisional Conference opponents.
4. If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the division champion. If in that same scenario, the team that was the highest ranked team in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
5. If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, if the highest-ranked team wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, they will be declared the division champion. If the highest ranked team loses, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
6. If none of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
7. If no teams are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings going into the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
8. If still tied, the team with the highest overall (Conference and non-Conference) winning percentage against FBS teams shall be the division champion;
9. If still tied, the division champion will be determined by lot, conducted by the Commissioner. For all ties of three or more teams, the progression of the tiebreaker shall be followed until the champion amongst the tied is determined. If one team falls out of contention for the highest seed, the remaining teams will continue down the tiebreaker until the champion is determined.

That makes more sense, thanks.

But if the conference votes to include JMU its a different game.

(10-31-2023 01:27 PM)JMUsince89 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 09:19 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:53 AM)Klak Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:00 AM)GS99-00 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  So what’s the tiebreaker rules? Obviously head to head if only two. More than two best record amongst the tied teams in head to head I’m guessing? What’s after that? Say ODU beats GASO and loses to GSU and we end up tied in conference record. We’re all 1-1 against the other two. What’s next?

1. Head-to-head - No head-to-head
2. Final CPF rankings & win the SBC final weekend
3. Composite average of selected computer rankings (Multiple teams tied & a final SBC weekend loss)
4. None of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of SBC regular season, composite average of selected computer rankings
5. No teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, a composite average of selected computer rankings
6. If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common SBC opponents
7. If still tied, the team with the highest overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
8. Coin toss by the commissioner

That's for hosting the CCG.

MULTIPLE TEAM TIE FOR THE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP:
If three or more teams are tied atop a division at the end of the season, the following criteria are used, until one team remains and declared the representative of the Championship game.
1. The team with the highest winning percentage in games played among the tied teams shall be declared the division champion;
2. If still tied, the team with the highest overall divisional winning percentage shall be the division champion.
3. If still tied, each team’s winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group,rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If still tied, combined highest winning percentage against all common non-divisional Conference opponents.
4. If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the division champion. If in that same scenario, the team that was the highest ranked team in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
5. If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, if the highest-ranked team wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, they will be declared the division champion. If the highest ranked team loses, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
6. If none of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
7. If no teams are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings going into the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
8. If still tied, the team with the highest overall (Conference and non-Conference) winning percentage against FBS teams shall be the division champion;
9. If still tied, the division champion will be determined by lot, conducted by the Commissioner. For all ties of three or more teams, the progression of the tiebreaker shall be followed until the champion amongst the tied is determined. If one team falls out of contention for the highest seed, the remaining teams will continue down the tiebreaker until the champion is determined.

That makes more sense, thanks.

But if the conference votes to include JMU its a different game.

Yea but they won't.

If you're 12-0 it won't matter, the only reason to put you in would be if we had a NY6 contender, but the CFP is using the NCAA eligibility rules so that means you're not considered this year. Otherwise the possible conference champion could potentially not even make a bowl this year (as you're only making a bowl if there are not enough bowl eligible teams). That's negative perception for the conference and not something any of us would be in favor of.

And for anyone involved in the East race, you're not getting them to vote yes.

(10-31-2023 04:20 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 01:27 PM)JMUsince89 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 09:19 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:53 AM)Klak Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:00 AM)GS99-00 Wrote:  1. Head-to-head - No head-to-head
2. Final CPF rankings & win the SBC final weekend
3. Composite average of selected computer rankings (Multiple teams tied & a final SBC weekend loss)
4. None of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of SBC regular season, composite average of selected computer rankings
5. No teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, a composite average of selected computer rankings
6. If still tied, the team with the highest winning percentage against all common SBC opponents
7. If still tied, the team with the highest overall winning percentage against FBS opponents
8. Coin toss by the commissioner

That's for hosting the CCG.

MULTIPLE TEAM TIE FOR THE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP:
If three or more teams are tied atop a division at the end of the season, the following criteria are used, until one team remains and declared the representative of the Championship game.
1. The team with the highest winning percentage in games played among the tied teams shall be declared the division champion;
2. If still tied, the team with the highest overall divisional winning percentage shall be the division champion.
3. If still tied, each team’s winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group,rather than the performance against individual tied teams. If still tied, combined highest winning percentage against all common non-divisional Conference opponents.
4. If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the division champion. If in that same scenario, the team that was the highest ranked team in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings loses in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
5. If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, if the highest-ranked team wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, they will be declared the division champion. If the highest ranked team loses, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend will be used to determine the division champion.
6. If none of the ranked teams win on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
7. If no teams are ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings going into the final weekend of the Conference regular season, a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) that include all games on the final weekend of the Conference regular season, will be used to determine the division champion;
8. If still tied, the team with the highest overall (Conference and non-Conference) winning percentage against FBS teams shall be the division champion;
9. If still tied, the division champion will be determined by lot, conducted by the Commissioner. For all ties of three or more teams, the progression of the tiebreaker shall be followed until the champion amongst the tied is determined. If one team falls out of contention for the highest seed, the remaining teams will continue down the tiebreaker until the champion is determined.

That makes more sense, thanks.

But if the conference votes to include JMU its a different game.

Yea but they won't.

If you're 12-0 it won't matter, the only reason to put you in would be if we had a NY6 contender, but the CFP is using the NCAA eligibility rules so that means you're not considered this year. Otherwise the possible conference champion could potentially not even make a bowl this year (as you're only making a bowl if there are not enough bowl eligible teams). That's negative perception for the conference and not something any of us would be in favor of.

And for anyone involved in the East race, you're not getting them to vote yes.

That's a good point.

Moreover, as you enter week 10 and teams are playing for something, it would be tragic to tell the other teams in the league you're changing the rules.

If it’s any consolation, JMU could possibly be the catalyst to help change the rules for future teams (if any).

(10-30-2023 11:35 PM)12thmonarch Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 10:10 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's where we stand:

JMU: Obviously, they need a vote. I think they will drop one conference game but if they get a vote they won't lose the division unless McCloud has a season-ending injury.

App State: They actually have a pretty good chance of winning the division if they could win out, but they won't win out.

Marshall: Here's the least-contrived (but still really contrived) scenario where they win the division with a tiebreaker over ODU:
Marshall wins the rest of their games.
Georgia Southern loses to Texas State, App, Marshall, beats ODU
Georgia State loses to JMU and ODU
Coastal loses to ODU and JMU

So basically, it's a four-way race:

Georgia Southern:
Conference Losses: 1 (JMU)
SBC Games Left: @Texas State, @Marshall, ODU, @App State

Coastal Carolina:
Conference Losses: 2 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: @ODU, Texas State, JMU

Georgia State:
Conference Losses: 2 (Troy, Georgia Southern)
SBC Games Left: JMU, App State, @ODU

Old Dominion:
Conference Losses: 2 (Marshall, JMU)
SBC Games Left: Coastal, @Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Since GS is in the driver' seat, I'll build the scenarios around what happens to us.
 
On paper you might think Southern has the easiest schedule left but the bad news is it's 3 games on the road including to San Marcos where we've never had an easy win and App in a bitter rivalry game none of our fans are penciling in a win. I don't think a scenario where we are 3-1 in the last 4 games and don't win the division is overly realistic (that would require either App winning every game left or ODU winning every game left and us winning all 3 road games) so let's look at scenarios where GS is 2-2 in the final 4 games. I'm not picking 2 specific wins or 2 specific losses for us, just saying that's what's the most likely.

1. Georgia State does not hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left
2. Coastal doesn't hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left and needs Georgia State to take at least 1 loss.
3. ODU is the only East team that controls their own destiny other than Georgia Southern. They might can afford a loss to State or Coastal but Georgia Southern is definitely a must-win.

None of these 3 possibilities alone is all that likely but with all 3 of these teams playing each other the possibility of one happening isn't that small.

Thanks for putting this together. I might be in the minority but I believe Coastal is going to win out and might be the team that punches JMPoo in the mouth and ODU might end up 2-2 and qualify for a bowl and hopefully makes its way into one.

ODUH fans are so salty.

(10-31-2023 05:18 PM)EagleNationRising Wrote:  If it’s any consolation, JMU could possibly be the catalyst to help change the rules for future teams (if any).

I would be fine with future changes. I agree the rule is stupid. My issue with many of the JMU fans and apparently the Virginia state AG, is that they knew the rules when they applied and were admitted and now that they affect them, they are whining and trying to change them. If the NCAA wouldn;t change the rules for Appy and GS and anyone else before us, why should we want them to change the rules for JMU?

(11-01-2023 10:32 AM)KJ Eagle Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 05:18 PM)EagleNationRising Wrote:  If it’s any consolation, JMU could possibly be the catalyst to help change the rules for future teams (if any).

I would be fine with future changes. I agree the rule is stupid. My issue with many of the JMU fans and apparently the Virginia state AG, is that they knew the rules when they applied and were admitted and now that they affect them, they are whining and trying to change them. If the NCAA wouldn;t change the rules for Appy and GS and anyone else before us, why should we want them to change the rules for JMU?

I think most share the same "Rules are silly, need to be change" thought, but that isn't the only part that some people are whining about.

The rules allow for waivers and exceptions, which was also known by all parties when JMU applied. JMU incurred time and costs going through that process, with guidance from the NCAA; however, the NCAA under new leadership since JMU signed the dotted line, denied the waiver and effectively said "exceptions are silly, they need to go." That doesn't align with the NCAA's decision when Liberty joined FBS via exemptions nor when St. Thomas joined D1 via exemptions.

But that discuss requires getting into the weeds and most people out there (on both sides of the position) can't make it past the headlines.

(11-01-2023 10:32 AM)KJ Eagle Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 05:18 PM)EagleNationRising Wrote:  If it’s any consolation, JMU could possibly be the catalyst to help change the rules for future teams (if any).

I would be fine with future changes. I agree the rule is stupid. My issue with many of the JMU fans and apparently the Virginia state AG, is that they knew the rules when they applied and were admitted and now that they affect them, they are whining and trying to change them. If the NCAA wouldn;t change the rules for Appy and GS and anyone else before us, why should we want them to change the rules for JMU?

Here is why a waiver is justified…

Check out the schedules these transitioning programs played and how many FBS games they won in their first year of transition.

Ga Southern played one FBS game (and they won it)
App State played one FBS game
Liberty played one FBS game ( and they won it )
ODU played 5 FBS games (only won one against “FBS” Idaho )

JMU PLAYED A FULL FBS SCHEDULE IN YEAR ONE. JMU DID IN YEAR ONE WHAT EVERYONE ELSE DID IN YEAR TWO. AND THEY WENT 8-3 AGAINST THAT FULL FBS SCHEDULE.

See the difference ? Other programs took the pansy route and needed more time to build up their team without getting slaughtered in year one.

(10-30-2023 10:10 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I don't think a scenario where we are 3-1 in the last 4 games and don't win the division is overly realistic (that would require either App winning every game left or ODU winning every game left and us winning all 3 road games) so let's look at scenarios where GS is 2-2 in the final 4 games. I'm not picking 2 specific wins or 2 specific losses for us, just saying that's what's the most likely.

1. Georgia State does not hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left
2. Coastal doesn't hold the tiebreaker over GS and needs to win every game left and needs Georgia State to take at least 1 loss.
3. ODU is the only East team that controls their own destiny other than Georgia Southern. They might can afford a loss to State or Coastal but Georgia Southern is definitely a must-win.

None of these 3 possibilities alone is all that likely but with all 3 of these teams playing each other the possibility of one happening isn't that small.

On a quick glance at the cross division match-ups remaining, the bolded seems accurate so agreed this is currently GS's CCG to lose.

Technically I guess it could happen but I don't see CCU representing the East as I don't think GS going 2-2, GaSt going 2-1, and CCU going 3-0 is likely.

It appears ODU's last 2 games will be the deciding factors.
- If ODU loses to GS on 11/18, it's more likely GS will finish at least 2-2 and ODU's title game hopes could fall to single digits (and other contenders odds also fall with GS getting closer to the 3+ wins to lock it up).
- If ODU beat GS, then their season finale against GaSt is another must win.

The 11/25 game times of ODU vs. GaSt and GS vs. App St may build some suspense as one team may be waiting for the outcome of the other to determine their own fate.

This thread has become darn funny.

If JMU finishes the season with the best record in the East we all know who the real East champ is, just like last year.

Every other team in the East is playing for second place.

(11-01-2023 11:24 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  This thread has become darn funny.

If JMU finishes the season with the best record in the East we all know who the real East champ is, just like last year.

Every other team in the East is playing for second place.

*

^ is that for your 3/4 UNC game?

ODU cannot burn...or meme...or win