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***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
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thanksjim Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-19-2023 08:42 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 02:23 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 02:07 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  IMHO, the Sagarin rankings are much more accurate than Massey. I like how he ranks the divisions separately within the conferences that have them.

His SOS rankings really don't think much of the competition EMU has played. Too many MAC schools playing bad FCS teams and UMass (which he has as 184th best team).

SOS rankings:

Ball State (9)
Central Michigan (15)
Western Michigan (21)
Miami-Ohio (27)
Kent State (28)
NIU (46)
Bowling Green (55)
Buffalo (82)
Ohio (92)
Toledo (111)
Akron (131)
Eastern Michigan (209)

This is G5/FCS week for much of the MAC so the SOS's should go down.

Kent State: Nonsense! The party must go on!

Edit: Kent State's new AD found a way to go to Fresno St and get 1.2 million (split over 2 years) and Fresno St bball coming to Kent State. Pure Wizardry
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2023 10:11 AM by thanksjim.)
09-19-2023 09:50 AM
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Garden_KC Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-19-2023 09:50 AM)thanksjim Wrote:  
(09-19-2023 08:42 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 02:23 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 02:07 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  IMHO, the Sagarin rankings are much more accurate than Massey. I like how he ranks the divisions separately within the conferences that have them.

His SOS rankings really don't think much of the competition EMU has played. Too many MAC schools playing bad FCS teams and UMass (which he has as 184th best team).

SOS rankings:

Ball State (9)
Central Michigan (15)
Western Michigan (21)
Miami-Ohio (27)
Kent State (28)
NIU (46)
Bowling Green (55)
Buffalo (82)
Ohio (92)
Toledo (111)
Akron (131)
Eastern Michigan (209)

This is G5/FCS week for much of the MAC so the SOS's should go down.

Kent State: Nonsense! The party must go on!

Edit: Kent State's new AD found a way to go to Fresno St and get 1.2 million (split over 2 years) and Fresno St bball coming to Kent State. Pure Wizardry

Which is smart because Fresno isn't going to sell at Kent in FB but would be a good home to have in BB.
09-19-2023 10:13 AM
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Victory Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-17-2023 08:49 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  1. Ohio- Their defense has been stout. Up there with the best units in the conference. Did the kick miss or not?
2. Toledo- The other team with an impressive defense. Keeping Cordeiro to 17 pts, and grabbing the pick 6 was the game.
3. Miami- This is probably the best win in the league and won't be matched this season. Martin figured out how to win OOC I guess. The blowout to Miami is the only reason they are 3 and not 1.

I think that these are the three best teams and I agree that the win over Cincinnati is going to be the best win. I think Toledo was clearly the favorite going into the year and nothing has made a definitive argument for another team to pass them yet.

Ohio was possibly fortunate with the kick, but I do believe that was probably a miss because the ref was where he should have been with the only good view and the videos are at best indeterminate. ISU fans mostly seem to believe otherwise. Maybe because the commentator wanted a review but what angle is going to give you indisputable evidence. We probably got away with a PI on the game sealing INT but ISU still would have been about 50 yards from a FG attempt with no timeouts.

I do believe OUr offense has a good chance to improve dramatically. We had the top scoring offense in the MAC last year in spite of playing two of the better defenses in the country non-conference and playing without the MAC POY for 3.5 games. We basically have 10 starters back on offense and the defense was expected by most fans to be the weaker unit by far. If that improvement happens to 2022 scoring levels then we'd establish a good argument for #1 but it hasn't happened yet. However, Rourke wasn't cleared to play until the Monday prior to the first game, missed a lot of offseason work and most two games with (probably) a concussion, and our three top WRs and TE have all only been on the field for about half the snaps we might have hoped for with injuries. Also, part of the reason the defensive stats look so good is that the offense has been playing conservatively. We have won the time of possession in every game by a big margin. Even of their offense is pathetic for a P5 team, most teams in the country, let alone most G5 teams, are going to struggle to score on ISU. We didn't put up many offensive stats but we also didn't commit an offensive penalty, fumble, allow a sack, drop a pass, or turn it over and had the ball for almost 12 more minutes than ISU

Miami, I think was also fortunate. I'm not really talking about possible bad calls. I mean they got outgained by 180 yards and lost TOP by 13 minutes. Unless you win the TO battle, and they didn't, you usually lose a game like that by about three TDs. They made just the right plays at just the right times, and I'm pleased that they won, but I would be not much more inclined to bet on Miami to beat UC if they played again than I would have been before this game started. So I agree with them still being 3rd.

(09-18-2023 08:22 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  OHIO received three votes in this week's coaches poll.
With a loss and without a marquee win it is very hard to argue that we deserve any votes. If this, under that circumstance, was because Albin was the only coach to vote for Ohio then, IMO, it is kind of cheesy. But we don't actually know where the votes came from.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2023 06:46 PM by Victory.)
09-19-2023 06:41 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-18-2023 12:08 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Massey Composite Rankings:

Toledo 69
Ohio 77
Miami 85
EMU 99

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

G5 median composite rankings:

SBC 78.5
MWC 90.5
AAC 99
MAC 108
CUSA 118

not sure how you came up with this. I get this for G5 average team rankings for Massey.

1. Sun Belt = 83.79
2. Mountain West = 90.00
3. AAC = 94.79
4. CUSA = 105.56
5. MAC = 106.67
09-20-2023 11:20 AM
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UofToledoFans Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-20-2023 11:20 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 12:08 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Massey Composite Rankings:

Toledo 69
Ohio 77
Miami 85
EMU 99

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

G5 median composite rankings:

SBC 78.5
MWC 90.5
AAC 99
MAC 108
CUSA 118

not sure how you came up with this. I get this for G5 average team rankings for Massey.

1. Sun Belt = 83.79
2. Mountain West = 90.00
3. AAC = 94.79
4. CUSA = 105.56
5. MAC = 106.67

Mean, Median and Mode are different ways to calculate averages. Depends if they take the middle teams of 6 and 7 and average them. Add up the rankings then divide by 12, or Average the team strengths and find a middle data point. It's possible 99th and 115th for example are very very close mathematically so the averages are weighted oddly.
09-20-2023 05:02 PM
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Victory Offline
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Post: #26
RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-20-2023 05:02 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(09-20-2023 11:20 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 12:08 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Massey Composite Rankings:

Toledo 69
Ohio 77
Miami 85
EMU 99

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

G5 median composite rankings:

SBC 78.5
MWC 90.5
AAC 99
MAC 108
CUSA 118

not sure how you came up with this. I get this for G5 average team rankings for Massey.

1. Sun Belt = 83.79
2. Mountain West = 90.00
3. AAC = 94.79
4. CUSA = 105.56
5. MAC = 106.67

Mean, Median and Mode are different ways to calculate averages. Depends if they take the middle teams of 6 and 7 and average them. Add up the rankings then divide by 12, or Average the team strengths and find a middle data point. It's possible 99th and 115th for example are very very close mathematically so the averages are weighted oddly.

Massey's composite conference ranking is an average of all of the rankings of all of the teams in a conference across all of the computer rankings.
09-20-2023 06:40 PM
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OhioBobcatJohn Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
Ohio offense will be fine. They played some good defensive units. Ohio should be able to run the ball a lot better against the MAC and that opens up the passing game.
09-20-2023 10:49 PM
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holybovine Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
Buffalo showing the true state of its program without Leipold.

Linguist is BAD.
09-21-2023 12:15 AM
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DICK Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-19-2023 06:41 PM)Victory Wrote:  
(09-17-2023 08:49 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  1. Ohio- Their defense has been stout. Up there with the best units in the conference. Did the kick miss or not?
2. Toledo- The other team with an impressive defense. Keeping Cordeiro to 17 pts, and grabbing the pick 6 was the game.
3. Miami- This is probably the best win in the league and won't be matched this season. Martin figured out how to win OOC I guess. The blowout to Miami is the only reason they are 3 and not 1.

I think that these are the three best teams and I agree that the win over Cincinnati is going to be the best win. I think Toledo was clearly the favorite going into the year and nothing has made a definitive argument for another team to pass them yet.

Ohio was possibly fortunate with the kick, but I do believe that was probably a miss because the ref was where he should have been with the only good view and the videos are at best indeterminate. ISU fans mostly seem to believe otherwise. Maybe because the commentator wanted a review but what angle is going to give you indisputable evidence. We probably got away with a PI on the game sealing INT but ISU still would have been about 50 yards from a FG attempt with no timeouts.

I do believe OUr offense has a good chance to improve dramatically. We had the top scoring offense in the MAC last year in spite of playing two of the better defenses in the country non-conference and playing without the MAC POY for 3.5 games. We basically have 10 starters back on offense and the defense was expected by most fans to be the weaker unit by far. If that improvement happens to 2022 scoring levels then we'd establish a good argument for #1 but it hasn't happened yet. However, Rourke wasn't cleared to play until the Monday prior to the first game, missed a lot of offseason work and most two games with (probably) a concussion, and our three top WRs and TE have all only been on the field for about half the snaps we might have hoped for with injuries. Also, part of the reason the defensive stats look so good is that the offense has been playing conservatively. We have won the time of possession in every game by a big margin. Even of their offense is pathetic for a P5 team, most teams in the country, let alone most G5 teams, are going to struggle to score on ISU. We didn't put up many offensive stats but we also didn't commit an offensive penalty, fumble, allow a sack, drop a pass, or turn it over and had the ball for almost 12 more minutes than ISU

Miami, I think was also fortunate. I'm not really talking about possible bad calls. I mean they got outgained by 180 yards and lost TOP by 13 minutes. Unless you win the TO battle, and they didn't, you usually lose a game like that by about three TDs. They made just the right plays at just the right times, and I'm pleased that they won, but I would be not much more inclined to bet on Miami to beat UC if they played again than I would have been before this game started. So I agree with them still being 3rd.

(09-18-2023 08:22 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  OHIO received three votes in this week's coaches poll.
With a loss and without a marquee win it is very hard to argue that we deserve any votes. If this, under that circumstance, was because Albin was the only coach to vote for Ohio then, IMO, it is kind of cheesy. But we don't actually know where the votes came from.

Miami has had for years ( under Martin) a bend but don't break defensive philosophy. Statistically the reason we won the game is because we never gave up the long TD play and we got one of our own. UC had 8 drives where they got in the Red Zone ( crossed our 20) and got 24 points our of those 8 drives, 3 times they got zero. Miami got into the Red Zone 4 times vs Cincy, but also got the same 24 points out of those drives. The difference was we hit one long TD play for the 7 point differential.
09-21-2023 10:04 AM
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Schadenfreude Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-19-2023 06:41 PM)Victory Wrote:  Ohio was possibly fortunate with the kick, but I do believe that was probably a miss because the ref was where he should have been with the only good view and the videos are at best indeterminate.

I think this is right.

Huge game this week when Ohio visits Bowling Green. Scot Loeffler says Ohio is the best team in the MAC.
09-21-2023 11:25 AM
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Frozenbaugh Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
I'll be interested to see how BSU does this weekend. One of their WR and a really good TE was out due to injury against Indiana State. They didn't stretch the field much, if at all. I don't know if it is due to guys being out or a freshman QB or both.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2023 12:22 PM by Frozenbaugh.)
09-21-2023 12:22 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-20-2023 06:40 PM)Victory Wrote:  
(09-20-2023 05:02 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(09-20-2023 11:20 AM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 12:08 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Massey Composite Rankings:

Toledo 69
Ohio 77
Miami 85
EMU 99

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

G5 median composite rankings:

SBC 78.5
MWC 90.5
AAC 99
MAC 108
CUSA 118

not sure how you came up with this. I get this for G5 average team rankings for Massey.

1. Sun Belt = 83.79
2. Mountain West = 90.00
3. AAC = 94.79
4. CUSA = 105.56
5. MAC = 106.67

Mean, Median and Mode are different ways to calculate averages. Depends if they take the middle teams of 6 and 7 and average them. Add up the rankings then divide by 12, or Average the team strengths and find a middle data point. It's possible 99th and 115th for example are very very close mathematically so the averages are weighted oddly.

Massey's composite conference ranking is an average of all of the rankings of all of the teams in a conference across all of the computer rankings.

Liberty #67
WKU #75
MTSU #103
Jax. St #109
Sam Houston St. #116
UTEP #117
FIU #119
La. Tech #123
New Mexico. St. #126

This averages out to 106.11. Not 118.
09-22-2023 01:02 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
MAC team rankings - Massey.

Ohio 74
Toledo 76
Miami OH 78
CMU 106
Ball. State 107
EMU 108
N. Illinois 110
WMU 113
Kent State 115
Bowling Green 124
Buffalo 129
Akron 133

Average = 106.08.

CUSA is 106.11 as I demonstrated above. It is a virtual tie. The 108 vs. 118 doesn't make sense.
09-22-2023 01:12 PM
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UofToledoFans Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-22-2023 01:12 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  MAC team rankings - Massey.

Ohio 74
Toledo 76
Miami OH 78
CMU 106
Ball. State 107
EMU 108
N. Illinois 110
WMU 113
Kent State 115
Bowling Green 124
Buffalo 129
Akron 133

Average = 106.08.

CUSA is 106.11 as I demonstrated above. It is a virtual tie. The 108 vs. 118 doesn't make sense.

Massey has its own ratings. Massey composite is a combo of every ranking system out there and averaged. You guys are probably using different sites.
09-22-2023 02:19 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-22-2023 02:19 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  
(09-22-2023 01:12 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  MAC team rankings - Massey.

Ohio 74
Toledo 76
Miami OH 78
CMU 106
Ball. State 107
EMU 108
N. Illinois 110
WMU 113
Kent State 115
Bowling Green 124
Buffalo 129
Akron 133

Average = 106.08.

CUSA is 106.11 as I demonstrated above. It is a virtual tie. The 108 vs. 118 doesn't make sense.

Massey has its own ratings. Massey composite is a combo of every ranking system out there and averaged. You guys are probably using different sites.

OK, I got it. I think I am using Massey rankings. He is using Massey Composite Rankings, 2 different things.
09-22-2023 02:45 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
OK, I take it back. If you take the Composite Massey Rankings, CUSA is rated at 105.44. The MAC is rated at 105.83. It's essentially at tie, whether you use Massey Rankings or Composite Massey Rankings. I am not sure where the MAC being at 108 and CUSA being at 118 came from. The average team rankings are tied.
09-22-2023 03:12 PM
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Victory Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
Massey has his own rankings and the Massey conference average is an average of the team's Massey RATING and not the team's RANKING in the Massey rankings. You'll lose some information if you average the ranking instead of the rating.

The composite is an average of the teams ranking in all of the computer rankings. He could not really average ratings for that because the scales the different computers use are different. The conference average comes from that. Now, I don't know how to say this without being even more dry. If you average the team's ranking in the average of rankings you'll get a slightly different number than if you average the average of rankings. I hope that makes sense.

The new composite he uses is sortable in lots of ways and the plain HTML page wasn't. But he is not including the average ranking as a column in the new format. Because he is averaging the average ranking and not the ranking of average rankings to make the conference ranking that's another way you could get confused. I don't know, maybe by trying to clarify what it is I just made it sound confusing.
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2023 03:41 PM by Victory.)
09-22-2023 03:40 PM
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Garden_KC Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-22-2023 03:12 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  OK, I take it back. If you take the Composite Massey Rankings, CUSA is rated at 105.44. The MAC is rated at 105.83. It's essentially at tie, whether you use Massey Rankings or Composite Massey Rankings. I am not sure where the MAC being at 108 and CUSA being at 118 came from. The average team rankings are tied.

I'm looking at what the median ranking is. The midpoint.

That to me is a better judge of strength than something skewed by a few outliers.
09-22-2023 04:17 PM
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BeatWestern! Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
Actually, the Sagarin rankings have the MAC ahead of CUSA by a comfortable margin.

Then you take into account Kennesaw State, which is currently 1-2 with its only win against a Div. II school. KSU has accepted an invitation to CUSA and currently in its first year of transitioning to FBS from FCS.
09-22-2023 09:22 PM
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sstaedtler88 Offline
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RE: ***POST WEEK 3 power rankings***
(09-22-2023 09:22 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Actually, the Sagarin rankings have the MAC ahead of CUSA by a comfortable margin.

Then you take into account Kennesaw State, which is currently 1-2 with its only win against a Div. II school. KSU has accepted an invitation to CUSA and currently in its first year of transitioning to FBS from FCS.

Kennesaw State isn't in CUSA right now and should have zero bearing on the rankings. It is a throw away year for them where they can't even play for FCS playoffs and have fewer games. Like Sam Houston, they are probably redshirting a ton of guys.

A composite ranking of all sites combined has the MAC and CUSA tied. I don't see why you would take anything other than the average ranking of all teams in the conference.

We can look at the Athletic's rankings by Chris Vannini, and see has has CUSA at 98.7 and the MAC at 108.3. A significant gap in favor of CUSA. A computer can't take into account that Iowa State missed tons of players and their starting QB with no notice based on gambling charges which gave Ohio as much easier game.
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2023 10:56 PM by sstaedtler88.)
09-22-2023 10:39 PM
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