Wake -14.5 @ ODU , but just barely
GS @ Wisc. - 19.5, I think this is a one score game to start the 4th
ECU @ App -9 take the under 47.5, ECU's defense is better than the credit they're getting
ULM @ TAMU - 36.5, so many points
Tulane -12.5 @ USM, if Tulane's QB is healthy
GA St. - 8.5 @ UNCC, UNCC runs the ball and building to stop the run, upset alert
JMU @ Troy - 2.5, under 47.5, might be the best two defensive lines in the conference (or Marshall)
USA @ Ok St. -7, would love to be wrong!
ULL @ UAB - 2, again hope I'm wrong

Win Projections (by me)

Wake @ ODU
(Wake should get a win over improving monarchs)

GS @ Wisc.
(low chance after upsetting fellow BIG10 program last season)

ECU @ App
(App is favored by 9 for a reason, game is in boone)

ULM @ TAMU
(only chance is VK taking it to a subpar SEC offense)

Tulane @ USM
(revenge game for Tulane, coming off of a disappointing loss they will rebound unfortunately)

GA St. @ UNCC
(revenge game from last years upset, pretty confident in Carroll and Co. to take care of business)

JMU @ Troy
(not really sure how this game will go, giving advantage to home team for now, hope TJ Jackson plays)

USA @ Ok St.
(could be a W for USA, but they have not shown they can win big games)

ULL @ UAB
(closer to a toss up really, but ULL has not inspired confidence)

Informal lines I’ve seen floating around has TXST -16.5 with computer models showing -12.

At this point just getting the FCS win is all to expect here. Could be the best SWAC program the SBC has ever been paired against. Does seem Deion left a number of 3 star guys behind who had some good HS/transfer offers that you would typically not see at FCS much less SWAC level. Hope things are wrong and we win by 30+ but after way too close game against our last SWAC opponent (TSU who was not any good) just get the W

(09-14-2023 08:59 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  GA St. - 8.5 @ UNCC, UNCC runs the ball and building to stop the run, upset alert

This is an interesting game, where both teams are treating it as a must-win to reach bowl eligibility.

Charlotte's new DNA looks identical to UConn: run the ball and maintain possession. Many picked UConn last week for the very same reason because Huskies ran the ball so effectively against NC State.

It turns out, stopping the run is fortunately one of the few things GSU seems to have figured out. UConn really struggled to have the same success at Center Parc, managing only 50 yds on 31 carries, the longest carry being a 10yrd run when the dogs were called off in the 4th. Again, Charlotte will be another good measuring stick in judging GSU's run defense.

Then there is GSU's glaring weakness that is the secondary. Against Rhode Island, Shawn Elliott identified 12 instances of whiffed assignment mistakes in the secondary that allowed Rhode Island to make some big plays. Conversely, Charlotte's new QB is visibly struggling to pass downfield, barely averaging 100 yds passing per game and forcing errors in turnovers.

That said, I don't trust the odds and I don't know why we tend to struggle against CLT. We're 2-2 vs CLT when it should've been 4-0 in the series if you trusted the oddmakers in the years past.