Feel like this season we are finally seeing some of the major impacts of NIL.

- Alabama isn’t hoarding all the talent anymore.
- SEC isn’t as dominant as they have been in the past.
- Talent dispersion among Top Brand Names like Texas, USC, and FSU
- Dabo refusing to use the Portal/NIL has really cratered the program

This is the first time in a long time I don’t feel like the SEC should automatically get 2 CFP bids.

(09-11-2023 09:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Feel like this season we are finally seeing some of the major impacts of NIL.

- Alabama isn’t hoarding all the talent anymore.
- SEC isn’t as dominant as they have been in the past.
- Talent dispersion among Top Brand Names like Texas, USC, and FSU
- Dabo refusing to use the Portal/NIL has really cratered the program

This is the first time in a long time I don’t feel like the SEC should automatically get 2 CFP bids.

Saben getting old, eventually that catches up. Kids want to know he will be there.
SEC will be just fine.
FSU has always got talent, they just have not had the coaches.
Dabo not adapting is his problem.
NIL has some effects without a doubt, but so does transfer portal rules.

I said a couple of years ago when the Supreme Court blew open NIL in the Alston case that the big brands that were also in big markets - specifically USC, Miami and Texas came to my mind - were the ones to watch out for. This isn’t about NIL coming from the local car dealer, but rather those places that can set up NIL deals with national and global brands. Miami is still an open question, but USC and Texas have turned it around.

Look at Caleb Williams - he has national commercial campaigns with Dr. Pepper, Wendy’s, and Nissan. He’s on as many commercials as any NFL star besides Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen. We can say that any returning Heisman Trophy winner might get that type of attention… but it’s a truly special deal when you’re a returning Heisman Trophy winner in Los Angeles and all of the ad agencies that put together these national ad campaigns are right down the street from campus. I kept saying that this was a massive advantage in the NIL game - the whole Hollywood ecosystem is about making stars and *wants* USC to have those stars (and they have the money to back it up). Think of what Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush could have made if the NIL world existed in the 2000s - they were legitimately just below Kobe and Shaq as sports stars in LA during that time.

Maybe. The SEC definitely seems mortal this year. Georgia or Tennessee may be their only hope but there’s still 10 games to go then CCGs. Alabama could turn it around - maybe Texas is that good.

I do think the B1G has a bright future. Of the 8 future B1G ranked in this week's AP Poll, all 4 of their West Coast additions are ranked. If I were to bet money this year on NY6:

CFP
Rose: #2 Michigan vs #3 Texas
Sugar: #1 Georgia vs #4 Florida St

NY6
Cotton: Alabama vs Notre Dame
Fiesta: USC vs Ohio St
Orange: Clemson vs Penn St
Peach: Tennessee vs (Sun Belt Champion)

Note: I didn’t realize I chose the current Top 11 in the AP Poll until I was done.

(09-11-2023 09:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Feel like this season we are finally seeing some of the major impacts of NIL.

- Alabama isn’t hoarding all the talent anymore.
- SEC isn’t as dominant as they have been in the past.
- Talent dispersion among Top Brand Names like Texas, USC, and FSU
- Dabo refusing to use the Portal/NIL has really cratered the program

This is the first time in a long time I don’t feel like the SEC should automatically get 2 CFP bids.

You could be right. NIL and portal. This may prove to be a watershed year.

One one side of the divide: Clemson.
On the other: Colorado.

If so, the sorting seems to be happening program by program rather than conference by conference. Those prosper who adapt quickly to this constant state of free agency. (And as always, money helps.)

Will the next decade bring an SMU dynasty? We'll see.

(09-11-2023 09:53 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I said a couple of years ago when the Supreme Court blew open NIL in the Alston case that the big brands that were also in big markets - specifically USC, Miami and Texas came to my mind - were the ones to watch out for. This isn’t about NIL coming from the local car dealer, but rather those places that can set up NIL deals with national and global brands. Miami is still an open question, but USC and Texas have turned it around.

Look at Caleb Williams - he has national commercial campaigns with Dr. Pepper, Wendy’s, and Nissan. He’s on as many commercials as any NFL star besides Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen. We can say that any returning Heisman Trophy winner might get that type of attention… but it’s a truly special deal when you’re a returning Heisman Trophy winner in Los Angeles and all of the ad agencies that put together these national ad campaigns are right down the street from campus. I kept saying that this was a massive advantage in the NIL game - the whole Hollywood ecosystem is about making stars and *wants* USC to have those stars (and they have the money to back it up). Think of what Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush could have made if the NIL world existed in the 2000s - they were legitimately just below Kobe and Shaq as sports stars in LA during that time.

Definitely amazing that he's getting these commercials given that no one knows who he is. As with most ad agencies, a fool and his money are soon parted.

We'll see. The early weeks tend to make people think things are more wide open than they actually are.

People forget that Dabo Swinney had a number of years before 2015 when Clemson just wasn't that great. I don't think Dabo is a coach like Nick Saban that can lose coaches and just keep chugging.

I don't trust Texas at all. People thought they were going to make noise last year after the Alabama game and they didn't. I don't trust Steve Sarkisian either especially seeing how he ****ed up the Atlanta Falcons offense.

As for Alabama, it was pretty obvious when Saban made his comments about Texas A&M he was calling out the Alabama administration to step up their NIL game. I'm honestly surprised they don't have a better QB than they do.

Personally, I think the parity is good for the sport.

People like to pretend like talent does not matter but the SEC has been so dominate because the SEC teams have been able to hoard all the talent. We should have never had a system where freaking Texas A&M in 2022 was able to land six 5* recruits, twenty 4* recruits, and then proceed to a SEC punching bag. And just for context Texas A&M had the #1 class in the nation, followed by Alabama #2, and Georgia #3.

Meanwhile you had teams like Wisconsin, Colorado, TCU, Virginia Tech, and Nebraska whom all combined together had less 4* recruits than one of those teams. And with the playoff + NIL it's going to be incredibly stupid for kids to go sit on a bench at Alabama vs being the starter of Pittsburg because the money you get being the #1 guy is going to be great than being the bench guy.

(09-11-2023 09:53 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I said a couple of years ago when the Supreme Court blew open NIL in the Alston case that the big brands that were also in big markets - specifically USC, Miami and Texas came to my mind - were the ones to watch out for. This isn’t about NIL coming from the local car dealer, but rather those places that can set up NIL deals with national and global brands. Miami is still an open question, but USC and Texas have turned it around.

Look at Caleb Williams - he has national commercial campaigns with Dr. Pepper, Wendy’s, and Nissan. He’s on as many commercials as any NFL star besides Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen. We can say that any returning Heisman Trophy winner might get that type of attention… but it’s a truly special deal when you’re a returning Heisman Trophy winner in Los Angeles and all of the ad agencies that put together these national ad campaigns are right down the street from campus. I kept saying that this was a massive advantage in the NIL game - the whole Hollywood ecosystem is about making stars and *wants* USC to have those stars (and they have the money to back it up). Think of what Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush could have made if the NIL world existed in the 2000s - they were legitimately just below Kobe and Shaq as sports stars in LA during that time.

You did notice the "Now who are you?" when Matt Leinhart joined Caleb Williams on the Dr. Pepper commercial.

I thought the ideal finish would be for Vince Young to come on next and tell the young Wendy's guy that he could vouch for Leinhart.

(09-11-2023 10:14 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Personally, I think the parity is good for the sport.

People like to pretend like talent does not matter but the SEC has been so dominate because the SEC teams have been able to hoard all the talent. We should have never had a system where freaking Texas A&M in 2022 was able to land six 5* recruits, twenty 4* recruits, and then proceed to a SEC punching bag. And just for context Texas A&M had the #1 class in the nation, followed by Alabama #2, and Georgia #3.

Meanwhile you had teams like Wisconsin, Colorado, TCU, Virginia Tech, and Nebraska whom all combined together had less 4* recruits than one of those teams. And with the playoff + NIL it's going to be incredibly stupid for kids to go sit on a bench at Alabama vs being the starter of Pittsburg because the money you get being the #1 guy is going to be great than being the bench guy.

I think that’s less about NIL and more about the power of the transfer portal.

However, I think you make an important point: as much NIL money as there might be, playing time is still a finite resource. Ohio State and Alabama can and still do stockpile talent in each recruiting class, but they can’t retain that talent on the bench (keeping them away from competitors) at the same level that they used to be able to do in the pre-transfer portal world. Elite talent doesn’t want to sit on the bench even if they have a great NIL deal (as the ultimate goal is getting to the next level of the NFL). So, when you now have effectively complete freedom of movement of talent between teams each offseason, it naturally disperses that elite talent over a larger number of teams.

(09-11-2023 09:54 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Maybe. The SEC definitely seems mortal this year. Georgia or Tennessee may be their only hope but there’s still 10 games to go then CCGs. Alabama could turn it around - maybe Texas is that good.

I do think the B1G has a bright future. Of the 8 future B1G ranked in this week's AP Poll, all 4 of their West Coast additions are ranked. If I were to bet money this year on NY6:

CFP
Rose: #2 Michigan vs #3 Texas
Sugar: #1 Georgia vs #4 Florida St

NY6
Cotton: Alabama vs Notre Dame
Fiesta: USC vs Ohio St
Orange: Clemson vs Penn St
Peach: Tennessee vs (Sun Belt Champion)

Note: I didn’t realize I chose the current Top 11 in the AP Poll until I was done.

I noted that you picked all the name schools. And its early in the season when the name schools dominate the polls before losses. But maybe NIL is helping the name programs. Those top 20 programs are #1-#11, #13-14, #16, and #21-23 in the coach's poll. Only Auburn, Nebraska and Florida aren't ranked.

(09-11-2023 10:10 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  We'll see. The early weeks tend to make people think things are more wide open than usual.

People forget that Dabo Swinney had a number of years before 2015 when Clemson just wasn't that great. I don't think Dabo is a coach like Nick Saban that can lose coaches and just keep chugging.

I don't trust Texas at all. People thought they were going to make noise last year after the Alabama game and they didn't. I don't trust Steve Sarkisian either especially seeing how he ****ed up the Atlanta Falcons offense.

As for Alabama, it was pretty obvious when Saban made his comments about Texas A&M he was calling out the Alabama administration to step up their NIL game. I'm honestly surprised they don't have a better QB than they do.

I disagree.

This is year #2 of the NIL impact and we have already seen programs like Oregon State, TCU, etc get access to talent they never would have gotten. I mean the fact that TCU even made it to the championship last year was largely because of transfer talent.

Let's examine the BYU QB for a moment Kedon Slovis. Guess where he began his career? USC. In fact, he was considered by many to be the next great USC QB because he was putting up some pretty insane numbers. But then things did not go his way and when Williams announced he was coming Slovis knew he was not starting anymore.

Next season transfers to Pitt because now we thankfully don't punish players anymore. That did not work out. Next season transfers BYU. Under normal circumstances BYU would never have a 6'3-215 pound QB that once started at USC.

The transfer portal is the biggest game changer IMO. Now you still have to be in the NIL game but getting highly ranked players who don't want to sit or get phased out or under recruited players that develop beyond their high school eval can elevate programs who manage both properly