they are waiting because they don't have any leverage in the situation. PAC is a FARRRRRRR more valued brand than MWC regardless of who is left in the conference. They are waiting for all the more powerful conferences to make their decisions (ACC, B1G, PAC, XII, and SEC is not interested at all; even AAC is more preferred over the MWC) and afterwards they can try

As far as OSU/WSU goes, why would they voluntarily downgrade their conference? Its one thing to jump from a power conference to another, but to jump from a P5 to a G5 and give up all of the money and prestige? Not happening.

(08-17-2023 12:32 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Neither the MWC nor the AAC can do anything until WSU and OSU decide on a direction. WSU and OSU can’t do that until Stanford and Cal decide on a direction. Stanford and Cal won’t do that until the ACC has decided once and for all on a direction, and apparently the ACC decision depends on what a bunch of political hired guns can or can’t convince North Carolina to do.

It’s hard to believe that roughly 45 collegiate athletic programs will be affected by what transpires in Chapel Hill in the next few days, but here we are.

Agree. I add it appears a Stanford and Cal will also attempt a Hail Mary to the Big10. In contrast, I read joining the ACC is like a "3rd and 15" situation.

I also read the hang up with the four ACC "nays" is distribution of money resulting from Stanford and Cal joining. The four "nays" want a disproportionate share.

It is clear now rebuilding the PAC4 is the first option for Washington St. and Oregon St. The feasibility depends on the availability of Cal and particularly Stanford. Other options like merger with the AAC or the MWC are fall backs. All the options are under the management of Oliver Luck.

Time is of the essence. There are only 359 days left until the start of the 2024 soccer season and the time, according to one source, to resolve the Stanford/Cal situation is measured in days.

Well, espn and Fox don’t have much P5 western content anymore.

I guess they’ll show pickleball on FS1 and espn2 on late Saturday nights???

(08-17-2023 07:08 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Based on the Gloria Nevarez, she seems really passive and not very aggressive in expansion.

Quote:"People throw around merger like, 'Oh, let's just merge!' And first of all, I think those schools need to go through their process, check all the boxes, but there's so much under there. It's just hard to really speculate. There's a lot of due diligence that would need to be done. But from my perspective, we're ready to explore, be innovative, be opportunistic if we have to and if we have that chance. I don't have a priority rank order right now (of outcomes). We'd be open for anything."

https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporte...ealignment

Sounds like she's waiting for them to come to her instead of pursuing them.

I don't know what's going on behind the scenes, but this is exactly what she should be saying publicly, IMO.

(08-16-2023 10:34 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  The real question should be what is OSU/WSU waiting for. It’s obvious the MWC would vote them in tomorrow if they requested an invite.

Really? The PAC has accumulated enough NCAA credits to equal about 10x the annual MWC media payout. Why would OSU/WSU give that up to join the MWC?

(08-17-2023 06:46 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  The MW obviously wants OSU and WSU. Have there been any public statements from MW ADs, etc. on if they want Cal or Stanford? Maybe the holdup is that even the MW can't abide SF/Calistan, in addition to the no-votes from the B1G, Big XII, ACC, and SEC.

People are going overboard here. Of course the MWC would take Stanford and Cal in a heartbeat. Any preemptive statements from people in the MWC (or AAC or even Big 12) suggesting otherwise are rooted in trying to frame the narrative in their favor, when the reality is that Stanford and Cal would rather go independent than associate with those leagues. 99% of college sports can’t add value to the Big Ten at this point (including schools that are actually in the Big Ten where Stanford and Cal would get in over them if the league could start from scratch). I know that there is a ton of schadenfreude regarding Stanford and Cal because of whatever reason (academic elitism, politics, etc.), but a clairvoyant view would recognize that not having enough value for the Big Ten or ACC doesn’t mean that they have NO value and that those two schools don’t want to associate with the Big 12, MWC or AAC (which means a rejection hasn’t ever occurred).

(08-17-2023 08:23 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Well, espn and Fox don’t have much P5 western content anymore.

I guess they’ll show pickleball on FS1 and espn2 on late Saturday nights???

FOX has the most Western Content:
- Big 10 with USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington
- Big 12 with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, and BYU
- Some Mountain West

8 of the previous PAC-12 teams are in FOX media deals.

(08-17-2023 08:23 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Well, espn and Fox don’t have much P5 western content anymore.

I guess they’ll show pickleball on FS1 and espn2 on late Saturday nights???

One of the reasons ESPN didn't renew with the NHL back in the mid 00's was because the Poker telecasts used as replacement programming during the 04'-'05 lockout had better ratings than the NHL games had... so maybe now it's time for pickleball to shine!

(08-17-2023 08:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 06:46 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  The MW obviously wants OSU and WSU. Have there been any public statements from MW ADs, etc. on if they want Cal or Stanford? Maybe the holdup is that even the MW can't abide SF/Calistan, in addition to the no-votes from the B1G, Big XII, ACC, and SEC.

People are going overboard here. Of course the MWC would take Stanford and Cal in a heartbeat. Any preemptive statements from people in the MWC (or AAC or even Big 12) suggesting otherwise are rooted in trying to frame the narrative in their favor, when the reality is that Stanford and Cal would rather go independent than associate with those leagues. 99% of college sports can’t add value to the Big Ten at this point (including schools that are actually in the Big Ten where Stanford and Cal would get in over them if the league could start from scratch). I know that there is a ton of schadenfreude regarding Stanford and Cal because of whatever reason (academic elitism, politics, etc.), but a clairvoyant view would recognize that not having enough value for the Big Ten or ACC doesn’t mean that they have NO value and that those two schools don’t want to associate with the Big 12, MWC or AAC (which means a rejection hasn’t ever occurred).

I'm sure a Cal would rather go independent but can they afford to? I'm sure Stanford can with that pile of money ..... but Cal with that pile of debt? Doesn't Cal have to hold a stiff upper lip and take the path of the most money wherever that leads?

The PAC has a dilemma(s) that no other conference has faced before. Let’s rehash what they’re facing:

(1) A media deal that ends within a year.
(2) They don’t have a media deal lined up after the one they have expires.
(3) They can only raid from the AAC or the MWC and any of those leaving for the PAC would have very steep exit fees to leave on such short notice.
(4) Based on what we know currently, any new additions would be joining a conference without knowing what their ROI would be.
(5) At least one of their members has what appears to be an irrationally high opinion of themselves when it comes to the sports that matter most.
(6) Their collective value is decreasing with every “no” they get from the conferences they would prefer to join.
(7) It’s possible that merging with another conference would eat away or do completely away with monies due to them (NCAA credits, CFP payouts, etc); I’ll leave that discussion to the lawyers.
(8) Debts and other liabilities that are very high (WSU and Cal in particular, although OSU has some things to deal with as well); no matter what decision they make, their debt-to-income ratio is going to take a severe hit.
(9) Former conference mates that are under no obligation to help them out in any way.

They are stuck in a Catch-22.

Their best course of action is to merge with another conference, restructure debt to the best of their ability and negotiate terms that allow their current 4 members to keep as much of the PAC’s existing assets to themselves.

Another thing: the “conference dissolution” discussions are mostly fantasy.

The MWC will not have the votes to dissolve, unless Fresno State, SJSU, Wyoming, Utah State and Hawaii can be guaranteed spots. I can see a path for such an event to occur in the AAC but it would require them to (a) bring Wichita State on as an Olympic sports-only partner and (b) invite 11 AAC football-playing members.

They have a mess on their hands and I can’t get over how bad it is.

(08-17-2023 08:31 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-16-2023 10:34 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  The real question should be what is OSU/WSU waiting for. It’s obvious the MWC would vote them in tomorrow if they requested an invite.

Really? The PAC has accumulated enough NCAA credits to equal about 10x the annual MWC media payout. Why would OSU/WSU give that up to join the MWC?

MWC: We’ll join but we want a big chunk of the NCAA credits.
WSU/OSU: No way.
MWC: Enjoy life as an independent.

(08-17-2023 08:49 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  The PAC has a dilemma(s) that no other conference has faced before. Let’s rehash what they’re facing:

(1) A media deal that ends within a year.
(2) They don’t have a media deal lined up after the one they have expires.
(3) They can only raid from the AAC or the MWC and any of those leaving for the PAC would have very steep exit fees to leave on such short notice.
(4) Based on what we know currently, any new additions would be joining a conference without knowing what their ROI would be.
(5) At least one of their members has what appears to be an irrationally high opinion of themselves when it comes to the sports that matter most.
(6) Their collective value is decreasing with every “no” they get from the conferences they would prefer to join.
(7) It’s possible that merging with another conference would eat away or do completely away with monies due to them (NCAA credits, CFP payouts, etc); I’ll leave that discussion to the lawyers.
(8) Debts and other liabilities that are very high (WSU and Cal in particular, although OSU has some things to deal with as well); no matter what decision they make, their debt-to-income ratio is going to take a severe hit.
(9) Former conference mates that are under no obligation to help them out in any way.

They are stuck in a Catch-22.

Their best course of action is to merge with another conference, restructure debt to the best of their ability and negotiate terms that allow their current 4 members to keep as much of the PAC’s existing assets to themselves.

Another thing: the “conference dissolution” discussions are mostly fantasy.

The MWC will not have the votes to dissolve, unless Fresno State, SJSU, Wyoming, Utah State and Hawaii can be guaranteed spots. I can see a path for such an event to occur in the AAC but it would require them to (a) bring Wichita State on as an Olympic sports-only partner and (b) invite 11 AAC football-playing members.

They have a mess on their hands and I can’t get over how bad it is.

Agree but I think Stanford will eventually do what they have to, to essentially bribe a vote change in the ACC or in the B1G - revenues be damned, in order to avoid an association with the unwashed of the MWC or AAC. And like you said there is no upside for a limited number of AAC schools to move to the PAC, it is virtually all or none just like accepting MWC schools.

(08-17-2023 09:05 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 08:49 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  The PAC has a dilemma(s) that no other conference has faced before. Let’s rehash what they’re facing:

(1) A media deal that ends within a year.
(2) They don’t have a media deal lined up after the one they have expires.
(3) They can only raid from the AAC or the MWC and any of those leaving for the PAC would have very steep exit fees to leave on such short notice.
(4) Based on what we know currently, any new additions would be joining a conference without knowing what their ROI would be.
(5) At least one of their members has what appears to be an irrationally high opinion of themselves when it comes to the sports that matter most.
(6) Their collective value is decreasing with every “no” they get from the conferences they would prefer to join.
(7) It’s possible that merging with another conference would eat away or do completely away with monies due to them (NCAA credits, CFP payouts, etc); I’ll leave that discussion to the lawyers.
(8) Debts and other liabilities that are very high (WSU and Cal in particular, although OSU has some things to deal with as well); no matter what decision they make, their debt-to-income ratio is going to take a severe hit.
(9) Former conference mates that are under no obligation to help them out in any way.

They are stuck in a Catch-22.

Their best course of action is to merge with another conference, restructure debt to the best of their ability and negotiate terms that allow their current 4 members to keep as much of the PAC’s existing assets to themselves.

Another thing: the “conference dissolution” discussions are mostly fantasy.

The MWC will not have the votes to dissolve, unless Fresno State, SJSU, Wyoming, Utah State and Hawaii can be guaranteed spots. I can see a path for such an event to occur in the AAC but it would require them to (a) bring Wichita State on as an Olympic sports-only partner and (b) invite 11 AAC football-playing members.

They have a mess on their hands and I can’t get over how bad it is.

Agree but I think Stanford will eventually do what they have to, to essentially bribe a vote change in the ACC or in the B1G - revenues be damned, in order to avoid an association with the unwashed of the MWC or AAC. And like you said there is no upside for a limited number of AAC schools to move to the PAC, it is virtually all or none just like accepting MWC schools.

Stanford does appear to be the fly in the ointment. Maybe a bribe will work? They could offer NCSU $100M as endowment money and probably get them to change their vote to a “yes” LOL.

(08-16-2023 10:34 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  The real question should be what is OSU/WSU waiting for. It’s obvious the MWC would vote them in tomorrow if they requested an invite.

Millions of $$ from NCAA hoops credits they would forfeit if they left and Stanford and Cal stay

(08-17-2023 09:02 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 08:31 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-16-2023 10:34 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  The real question should be what is OSU/WSU waiting for. It’s obvious the MWC would vote them in tomorrow if they requested an invite.

Really? The PAC has accumulated enough NCAA credits to equal about 10x the annual MWC media payout. Why would OSU/WSU give that up to join the MWC?

MWC: We’ll join but we want a big chunk of the NCAA credits.
WSU/OSU: No way.
MWC: Enjoy life as an independent.

All OSU/WSU have to do is last one more year in the PAC with or without Stanford/Cal than the others that have already announced leaving to reap the NCAA credits/CFP revenues. It doesn't mean life as an independent thereafter because there is no doubt the MWC invite will be there for years to come - after OSU/WSU collect the PAC revenues. .

(08-17-2023 08:34 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 08:23 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Well, espn and Fox don’t have much P5 western content anymore.

I guess they’ll show pickleball on FS1 and espn2 on late Saturday nights???

FOX has the most Western Content:
- Big 10 with USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington
- Big 12 with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, and BYU
- Some Mountain West

8 of the previous PAC-12 teams are in FOX media deals.

So, you're going to have Colorado, Utah and BYU have 9PM local time kickoffs?

They don't have any money.

The American has $54 million in exit fee money to work with from Houston, UCF and Cincy. Plus a bigger media contract and higher conference payouts.

Follow the money. Always.

(08-17-2023 10:32 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  They don't have any money.

The American has $54 million in exit fee money to work with from Houston, UCF and Cincy. Plus a bigger media contract and higher conference payouts.

Follow the money. Always.

plus I believe Uconn is still paying $1million per year to the aac for their exit.

(08-17-2023 10:19 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 08:34 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(08-17-2023 08:23 AM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  Well, espn and Fox don’t have much P5 western content anymore.

I guess they’ll show pickleball on FS1 and espn2 on late Saturday nights???

FOX has the most Western Content:
- Big 10 with USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington
- Big 12 with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, and BYU
- Some Mountain West

8 of the previous PAC-12 teams are in FOX media deals.

So, you're going to have Colorado, Utah and BYU have 9PM local time kickoffs?

That’s a good question, AztecGolfer.

Also, @ArmoredUp. Fox currently shares pac12 content 50/50 with espn. So, effectively fox has 6 western P5 time slots.

The 4 BigTen will be shared with NBC and CBS. And Fox will share 5 BigXII with espn but not 50/50. More like 65/35 with the 35 Fox.

(08-17-2023 08:49 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  The PAC has a dilemma(s) that no other conference has faced before. Let’s rehash what they’re facing:

(1) A media deal that ends within a year.
(2) They don’t have a media deal lined up after the one they have expires.
(3) They can only raid from the AAC or the MWC and any of those leaving for the PAC would have very steep exit fees to leave on such short notice.
(4) Based on what we know currently, any new additions would be joining a conference without knowing what their ROI would be.
(5) At least one of their members has what appears to be an irrationally high opinion of themselves when it comes to the sports that matter most.
(6) Their collective value is decreasing with every “no” they get from the conferences they would prefer to join.
(7) It’s possible that merging with another conference would eat away or do completely away with monies due to them (NCAA credits, CFP payouts, etc); I’ll leave that discussion to the lawyers.
(8) Debts and other liabilities that are very high (WSU and Cal in particular, although OSU has some things to deal with as well); no matter what decision they make, their debt-to-income ratio is going to take a severe hit.
(9) Former conference mates that are under no obligation to help them out in any way.

They are stuck in a Catch-22.

Their best course of action is to merge with another conference, restructure debt to the best of their ability and negotiate terms that allow their current 4 members to keep as much of the PAC’s existing assets to themselves.

Another thing: the “conference dissolution” discussions are mostly fantasy.

The MWC will not have the votes to dissolve, unless Fresno State, SJSU, Wyoming, Utah State and Hawaii can be guaranteed spots. I can see a path for such an event to occur in the AAC but it would require them to (a) bring Wichita State on as an Olympic sports-only partner and (b) invite 11 AAC football-playing members.

They have a mess on their hands and I can’t get over how bad it is.

Largely correct. As you pointed out---conference dissolution votes are fantasy---so when it comes to mergers---its all or nothing. Lets be honest---any objective viewing of the facts is going to indicate that adding 12 to 14 random G5's to the Pac4 core is NOT going to maximize the revenue picture for the Pac4 core.

That means we are left with a very selective Pac4 rebuild where a small number of G5 schools are added. The AAC schools like Rice, who are currently looking at making just 2 million a year in the AAC for the remaining 10 years of the current AAC media deal are low hanging fruit who will pay the exit fee in a New York minute. The difference in long term value for SMU and Tulane is less than Rice---but they are probably schools that would make the jump and can fund the fees via donors. Memphis would probably jump if SMU, Rice, and Tulane go---and FedEx might pitch in. There is also a possibility that the Pac12 emergency fund kicks in some expansion fee dollars to aid expansion targets in their goal of arriving by 2024. Memphis may not be a target due to academic fit---but it would be the most attractive and valuable AAC media property on the board other than Navy (which would not be part of the media deal--or a full member).

The MW is more complex. We know SDSU is interested---but with an exit fee of 34 million to arrive by 2024---its more likely that any MW targets arrive in a 2025 "second expansion wave". SDSU and perhaps one more MW school (Boise would be the most valuable---but Air Force might be the better institutional fit due to academics) would finish out the rebuild. Gonzaga would be the final fit to the puzzle.

I doubt any merger will create more value than something like I outline---and there is no merger option that creates a better institutional match for the Pac4 rump.