(08-21-2023 01:35 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 12:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 12:00 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 11:15 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  Financial implications aside? That's all that matters!

That's a three time zone group.
What media outlet is giving them the money to be a three time zone conference.

That's a 10-15mil per team payout type of league. I don't know if that makes the travel worth it (for football yes, for Olympics meh).

Most of them are going to be looking at a lot of travel regardless of league, so maybe it's less of a sticking point than we think.


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IMO it's an $8m a year league. I don't think it is worth much more than the current AAC.

You mean the current AAC that just backfilled UCF, Cincy and UH with 6 CUSA schools? Yeah, right.

Let’s look at it this way: OSU has had the lowest viewership in the PAC if I’m not mistaken. SMU’s, SDSU’s and Tulane’s have not been great (Tulane’s was good last year and for good reason) historically. The other four programs have have good-to-decent numbers but particularly in WSU’s case, how much will it decrease starting in 2024?

Collectively, that group might be able to get a $10M media deal… but it darn sure won’t be $15M or higher.

The PAC4 need to look west for cost-cutting and east for media revenue increases. It’s that simple.

Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

(08-21-2023 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

(08-21-2023 02:00 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

(08-21-2023 02:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:00 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

Sure it did. The schools worth the money are gone. The market spoke with no ambiguity.

(08-21-2023 03:28 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:00 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

Sure it did. The schools worth the money are gone. The market spoke with no ambiguity.

The market has only said they aren’t worth 30 million. Beyond that—the market hasn’t said a word—-other than the two most valuable G5 conferences seem to believe these leftover schools would increase their per school value (which means they must be worth more than the average MW or AAC school).

(08-20-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 11:28 AM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 03:40 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  The statement was made sarcastically.

Fair enough. I know I make my own share of sarcastic and cheeky comments.

(08-19-2023 03:40 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  The conference would be asked by the court to justify the amount by quantifying their losses. The burden of proof would be on the conference, not the leaving institution. At best they would say the number is arbitrary. At worst it would be punitive.

Exit fees, by design, are supposed to be a penalty imposed to prevent leaving a conference. Am I wrong in assuming that it's clearly defined in the contract that SDSU agreed to and signed? We're not talking about something that would be imposed arbitrarily at the time a school decides to leave, correct? That alone provides an incredibly strong defense for the conference.

(08-19-2023 03:40 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  There is no way in hell they could justify that SDSU leaving the conference in 2024 would result in anything close to $34M. If that was the case, why isn't SDSU making more than $4.75M/year off the media rights deal. Given recent moves from the AAC, I would say the starting point would be $12M and SDSU would argue that they are leaving the conference in good shape with $10 in NCAA credits. I see something like $7M up front and no more than $5M over 10 years. That would be on par with what the AAC members paid in context with its higher media rights contract.

If it's in the contract that was agreed to by both parties, it's trivial to both justify and enforce. There are no surprises here. SDSU can't seek to nullify the contract because it suddenly doesn't jive with their feels.

Exit fees can not be punitive If they are, they are null and void.

Exit fees are basically anticipated damages for a team leaving the conference within a certain amount of time. The faster a team wants to leave, the more damages it can cause.

However

If the team leaving has added a lopsided amount of revenue over time, or is leaving a large amount of revenue, then that will be taken into consideration.

If a conference decries that a team leaving in a year is going to cause $34million in damages, then the team leaving is going to say "why have we only received $4.5million per year then?" Basically, the team leaving would be saying we have alreayd been paying you an exit fee because the rest of you havent been pulling your weight.

It will likely end up being 2x the media payment, or about $9million dollars, plus another $4.5million for leaving early. Thats $13.5million, and it may get negotiated down slightly more for SDSU for the TC's they left behind. If Boise is getting a higher payout, then their exit fee will be higher.

'
If the MWC was getting good legal advice when SDSU "withdrew", it would have negotiated as consideration from SDSU for re-admittance and settlement of all issues that SDSU could not contest the exit fees as previously agreed to of $17M &/or $34M, if they "left" again.

(08-21-2023 03:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:28 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:00 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

Sure it did. The schools worth the money are gone. The market spoke with no ambiguity.

The market has only said they aren’t worth 30 million. Beyond that—the market hasn’t said a word—-other than the two most valuable G5 conferences seem to believe these leftover schools would increase their per school value (which means they must be worth more than the average MW or AAC school).

Well, that was my point. Are the PAC4 schools worth more than the average AAC or MWC school? Perhaps worth more than what the MWC is paying, but worth more than a full share in the AAC? That's debatable but I could see arguments being made for a couple of the schools.

(08-21-2023 03:55 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:28 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:00 PM)msu35 Wrote:  All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

Sure it did. The schools worth the money are gone. The market spoke with no ambiguity.

The market has only said they aren’t worth 30 million. Beyond that—the market hasn’t said a word—-other than the two most valuable G5 conferences seem to believe these leftover schools would increase their per school value (which means they must be worth more than the average MW or AAC school).

Well, that was my point. Are the PAC4 schools worth more than the average AAC or MWC school? Perhaps worth more than what the MWC is paying, but worth more than a full share in the AAC? That's debatable but I could see arguments being made for a couple of the schools.

That may have been your point, but your claim was that what is left is the "dregs", the stuff left over at the bottom of the barrel with negligible worth after all the contents worth drinking at all has been drained off.

Stanford at the very least has a higher market value than at least one of the FourCorner4, and if Coach Prime's turnaround of the Buffs flames out, higher market value than two of them.

(08-21-2023 04:56 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  That may have been your point, but your claim was that what is left is the "dregs", the stuff left over at the bottom of the barrel with negligible worth after all the contents worth drinking at all has been drained off.

And? Pretty clear that's what we were left with. Academics don't mean much when the point is winning games in sports that people watch and are willing to pay for.

(08-21-2023 03:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:28 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:00 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats what Im thinking. Around 10 million a team. Maybe its 8 million---maybe its 12---but roughly that 10 million a school range seems reasonable given that the AAC schools get 7 and the Pac12 schools were offered as much as 30 playing in the Pac12. Any rebuilt conference will be much closer to the 2020 AAC than the old 2022 Pac12.

All of the schools worth $30M (or more) are getting theirs. What's left are the dregs, from a value standpoint.

It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

Sure it did. The schools worth the money are gone. The market spoke with no ambiguity.

The market has only said they aren’t worth 30 million. Beyond that—the market hasn’t said a word—-other than the two most valuable G5 conferences seem to believe these leftover schools would increase their per school value (which means they must be worth more than the average MW or AAC school).

We know these 4 are worth less than a $25 million all streaming deal. The rest is just speculation. Personally, I have no clue what a rebuilt Pac could get and I'm not going to speculate.

(08-21-2023 01:30 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:05 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:00 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 11:37 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 10:52 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Pretty easily definable reason why thats the case. The conference payout and the exit fee are reasonably close. I dont think thats the case on the 34 million MW fee or even the 17 million MW single year fee.

It's close now, but when the AAC TV deal was 2 million a year it wasn't close. The 34 million is not close. 17 million for over 1 year's notice is basically what the AAC settlement number for that time period has been, the MWC TV deal is within relative spitting distance of the AAC's TV deal, so I could see that number holding. Between the fact that SDSU signed and agreed to the number and there being precedent of it's "peer" G5 conference getting that amount of exit fee I wouldn't be counting on getting out of that number if I were a MWC school.

Where have you seen that SDSU ever agreed to tripling the exit fee and then doubling it with less than a years notice? This was passed in 2021 and only required 9 of the members to vote in favor for it to pass.

Unlike SDSU's invite to the PAC the exit fee change actually did occur. It was a valid change to the bylaws. They can challenge it in court if they'd like, they might win, they might not. Best of luck either way.

The PAC no longer exists in its current form but both SDSU and SMU were put on "standby" on the Friday morning UW and UO left. Even the OSU AD said that they would be replacing CU with a better program.

It won't go to court, it will be settled if there is a move out of the MWC. The numbers cannot be justified by the MWC. They are arbitrary and punitive. All parties know this.

You are the one who was trying to say SDSU has had an invite since last year. They never did that was never a thing.

Yes in all likelihood a number would get settled on, but I suspect it’s much higher than the less than 17 million you think it should be.

(08-21-2023 04:56 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:55 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 03:28 PM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 02:45 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  It didn't break down into "these schools worth $30m+" and "these schools worth $10m or less". For instance, Stanford would likely have a media value greater than Arizona, and Colorado being out of the bottom quarter of the PAC-12 is banking quite a lot on Coach Prime being able to turn the program around

Sure it did. The schools worth the money are gone. The market spoke with no ambiguity.

The market has only said they aren’t worth 30 million. Beyond that—the market hasn’t said a word—-other than the two most valuable G5 conferences seem to believe these leftover schools would increase their per school value (which means they must be worth more than the average MW or AAC school).

Well, that was my point. Are the PAC4 schools worth more than the average AAC or MWC school? Perhaps worth more than what the MWC is paying, but worth more than a full share in the AAC? That's debatable but I could see arguments being made for a couple of the schools.

That may have been your point, but your claim was that what is left is the "dregs", the stuff left over at the bottom of the barrel with negligible worth after all the contents worth drinking at all has been drained off.

Stanford at the very least has a higher market value than at least one of the FourCorner4, and if Coach Prime's turnaround of the Buffs flames out, higher market value than two of them.

they have higher "realignment" value. They do have higher recent TV ratings. But that doesn't necessarily mean they have higher media value. They came off a very good decade.

(08-21-2023 03:42 PM)indydoug Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 11:28 AM)msu35 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 03:40 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  The statement was made sarcastically.

Fair enough. I know I make my own share of sarcastic and cheeky comments.

(08-19-2023 03:40 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  The conference would be asked by the court to justify the amount by quantifying their losses. The burden of proof would be on the conference, not the leaving institution. At best they would say the number is arbitrary. At worst it would be punitive.

Exit fees, by design, are supposed to be a penalty imposed to prevent leaving a conference. Am I wrong in assuming that it's clearly defined in the contract that SDSU agreed to and signed? We're not talking about something that would be imposed arbitrarily at the time a school decides to leave, correct? That alone provides an incredibly strong defense for the conference.

(08-19-2023 03:40 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  There is no way in hell they could justify that SDSU leaving the conference in 2024 would result in anything close to $34M. If that was the case, why isn't SDSU making more than $4.75M/year off the media rights deal. Given recent moves from the AAC, I would say the starting point would be $12M and SDSU would argue that they are leaving the conference in good shape with $10 in NCAA credits. I see something like $7M up front and no more than $5M over 10 years. That would be on par with what the AAC members paid in context with its higher media rights contract.

If it's in the contract that was agreed to by both parties, it's trivial to both justify and enforce. There are no surprises here. SDSU can't seek to nullify the contract because it suddenly doesn't jive with their feels.

Exit fees can not be punitive If they are, they are null and void.

Exit fees are basically anticipated damages for a team leaving the conference within a certain amount of time. The faster a team wants to leave, the more damages it can cause.

However

If the team leaving has added a lopsided amount of revenue over time, or is leaving a large amount of revenue, then that will be taken into consideration.

If a conference decries that a team leaving in a year is going to cause $34million in damages, then the team leaving is going to say "why have we only received $4.5million per year then?" Basically, the team leaving would be saying we have alreayd been paying you an exit fee because the rest of you havent been pulling your weight.

It will likely end up being 2x the media payment, or about $9million dollars, plus another $4.5million for leaving early. Thats $13.5million, and it may get negotiated down slightly more for SDSU for the TC's they left behind. If Boise is getting a higher payout, then their exit fee will be higher.

'
If the MWC was getting good legal advice when SDSU "withdrew", it would have negotiated as consideration from SDSU for re-admittance and settlement of all issues that SDSU could not contest the exit fees as previously agreed to of $17M &/or $34M, if they "left" again.

That was not part of the deal. Reportedly, they could not use the letters as evidence to renegotiate the $34M exit fee.

(08-21-2023 05:11 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:30 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:05 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 01:00 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 11:37 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  It's close now, but when the AAC TV deal was 2 million a year it wasn't close. The 34 million is not close. 17 million for over 1 year's notice is basically what the AAC settlement number for that time period has been, the MWC TV deal is within relative spitting distance of the AAC's TV deal, so I could see that number holding. Between the fact that SDSU signed and agreed to the number and there being precedent of it's "peer" G5 conference getting that amount of exit fee I wouldn't be counting on getting out of that number if I were a MWC school.

Where have you seen that SDSU ever agreed to tripling the exit fee and then doubling it with less than a years notice? This was passed in 2021 and only required 9 of the members to vote in favor for it to pass.

Unlike SDSU's invite to the PAC the exit fee change actually did occur. It was a valid change to the bylaws. They can challenge it in court if they'd like, they might win, they might not. Best of luck either way.

The PAC no longer exists in its current form but both SDSU and SMU were put on "standby" on the Friday morning UW and UO left. Even the OSU AD said that they would be replacing CU with a better program.

It won't go to court, it will be settled if there is a move out of the MWC. The numbers cannot be justified by the MWC. They are arbitrary and punitive. All parties know this.

You are the one who was trying to say SDSU has had an invite since last year. They never did that was never a thing.

Yes in all likelihood a number would get settled on, but I suspect it’s much higher than the less than 17 million you think it should be.

They were given a term sheet in November. They were first on the list to replace the LA schools that were leaving. SMU was second. After that there was a "significant" dropoff.

Again, I justify the exit fee using numbers the AAC negotiated in their deal. I am sure any MWC school interested in leaving, and many are looking hopeful to the PAC, are going to use those numbers as well.

(08-21-2023 01:35 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 12:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 12:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 12:00 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(08-21-2023 11:15 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  Financial implications aside? That's all that matters!

That's a three time zone group.
What media outlet is giving them the money to be a three time zone conference.

That's a 10-15mil per team payout type of league. I don't know if that makes the travel worth it (for football yes, for Olympics meh).

Most of them are going to be looking at a lot of travel regardless of league, so maybe it's less of a sticking point than we think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IMO it's an $8m a year league. I don't think it is worth much more than the current AAC.

You mean the current AAC that just backfilled UCF, Cincy and UH with 6 CUSA schools? Yeah, right.

Let’s look at it this way: OSU has had the lowest viewership in the PAC if I’m not mistaken. SMU’s, SDSU’s and Tulane’s have not been great (Tulane’s was good last year and for good reason) historically. The other four programs have have good-to-decent numbers but particularly in WSU’s case, how much will it decrease starting in 2024?

Collectively, that group might be able to get a $10M media deal… but it darn sure won’t be $15M or higher.

The PAC4 need to look west for cost-cutting and east for media revenue increases. It’s that simple.

OSU had more viewers in 2022 than Stanford, Cal, ASU, Zona and Colorado.