(08-07-2023 08:45 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: (08-07-2023 06:46 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote: How would an SEC/ACC merger work? Full or partial? Who’s left out? I don’t see a full merger but maybe key brands in the southern flank. Where does Louisville land with the B12 filling up? Is FSU posturing to strengthen the ACC hand in negotiations with ESPN?
If JR is right, FSU may be posturing to sabotage ACC attempts to expand (on orders from the Big Ten).
You'll know on the 15th who they are working for if they give notice. Shortly after secret talks will lead to public talks which will be called the first talks. If those talks are with the Big 10 then you had better add Stanford and Cal and ask for an extension of the ACC grant of rights with a newly adjusted amount, or merge with the SEC, because it means Miami and possibly Clemson could be next.
If they have talks with the SEC, it means ESPN was giving them the wink so they could do some product rearranging. If so, they likely are taking nobody with them, and I look for Kansas to be their travel companion to the SEC.
ESPN has kept Kansas with a little extra assistance on the T3 while they were in the Big 12, I think the Mouse has wanted them fully for some time now. It didn't happen in 2012, so I think they are trying to land them sometime soon.
IF the SEC has any second Florida school it will help with the scheduling issue. I had hoped we would pick up South Florida and Kansas so it would not involve another conference or be sticky. Plus, USF would be grateful and that goes a long way for good future relations. With an SEC brand they would catch up soon enough. If it's FSU that's okay, Miami would have given us new reach, but the Noles deliver far more of the viewers than the other two.
I don't think the SEC has ever actively sought an SEC school besides Clemson in '91 and now that U.S.C. east is with us that's not a high priority either. The preference in the conference was to finish with Texas and Oklahoma. I knew when the Big 10 took USC and UCLA it was going bigger because there was no way that taking just the two to the West would be profitable long term. You alienate the rest of the West Coast fans, only have fickle L.A. fans, and you can't monetize them effectively with only two. That meant the Big 10 had to expand further. Oregon and Washington coming into the Big 10 at 31 million each and not moving to a full cut until the next contract renewal meant they weren't done. They want Notre Dame so very badly they needed to acquire what the ACC had to offer that they didn't. Name games in Florida and Georgia which were stipulated to Mike Slive by Swarbrick when Swarbrick visited Slive in 2011 before becoming affiliated with the ACC. He wanted to know if Slive would schedule games in Florida and Georgia with Notre Dame if things fell through in the ACC. The Georgia series was scheduled.
The Big 10 will seek a Florida School and possibly Georgia Tech to try to lure them. FSU wanted assurance to keep an in-state rival is what I hear, that means Miami.
Those moves damage not only the ACC, but the SEC in that it impacts our ad rates for advertising in Florida. Georgia Tech wouldn't impact our rates in Georgia where the Dawgs hold 85% of the state viewership.
This is one reason why I believe ESPN has been in touch with Sankey to discuss all options to stop it. Merger being perhaps the best, but essentially tuning up the exit costs on an FSU move to FOX / B1G or offering them a reduced out if they move to the SEC being the least impactful. Least because if they go that route the SEC won't be taking anyone else unless the Big 10 tries to break through again.
If it goes that route it upholds ESPN willingness to impose much higher costs on anyone attempting to leave the Disney family for another network. I doubt Miami would raise half a billion to get out and Georgia Tech couldn't afford it.
If Stanford and Cal come on board, you get to add money to the ACCN and pick up a time slot which should boost you some.
That's why I think the travel mate would be a blue blood basketball program, like Kansas. But we'll see.
Anyway, this is the way I read the tea leaves and there is a potentially costly threat. Since Big 10 social media influencers started the FSU and Clemson with Oregon and Washington a couple of weeks ago I think you have your smoking gun. The SEC which was not looking to expand would just be a convenient way to blunt the attempt.