(08-06-2023 10:00 AM)Garden_KC Wrote: Stanford is nice but not critical to a PAC-16 or PAC-20 plan though.
As to joining the WCC what is the appeal to do that if Gonzaga isn't staying there?
"Merged" conferences are a figment of imagination. The "merged" Southwest Conference and Big 8 into the Big 12, was in fact the Big 8 expanding to 12 and rebranding, with the SWC dissolving. The American Athletic is not technically new, rather a continuation of the old Big East under new branding. Same would happen with the Pac-12 and MWC.
If the direction taken is to dissolve the MWC and join the Pac-12, which sounds like what the San Diego State proposal amounts to, since they want to jettison a few schools (specifically Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada), they run into some issues. The jettisoned schools would have an extremely strong case in suing for exit fees from those that left, as they would have colluded to defraud them of their due exit fees and conference accumulated credits. That is $34M per exiting school plus all the NCAA credits of the MWC up to the point of dissolving. This is a risky (as in around $350M cost) strategy, that will certainly wind up in court and a very costly settlement to be rid of those schools, even when negotiated down. All that basically to get your hands on the Pac-12 NCAA credits, which anyway would not be distributed to the new incoming schools from the MWC, but instead to the remaining old Pac-12 schools.
If they jump, it has to be everybody. Again, the problem is the MWC schools lose control of the accumulated credits, abandon their TV deal and partners (FOX and CBS) in a time where there is great weakness in the market for college football TV contracts. And again, the Pac-12 accumulated credits would only go to the remaining Pac-12 schools per NCAA rules. There is no TV contract, so you are entering the same market that let the Pac-12 down, only with both FOX and ESPN having just shelled out $80-90M for B1G and Big 12 expansion. No freaking way do I entertain this strategy unless I have a TV provider who is ready to sign for $80-100M annually for this "new" conference.
The other way around is the Pac-12 schools join the MWC, and everyone in the MWC stays (avoids billable hours). The Pac-12 dissolves and the logo copyrights come over to the MWC. So, your merger is simply a MWC expansion, with the MWC going to their media partners and negotiating some increase to cover the new schools, say $5M per, which is doable. You are now in a position to open negotiations at a time of your choosing between next Summer (two years out) and the following summer, when you think the market is best (good time to come up, as nobody else will be on the market, and the networks should have recovered). This is clearly the better and more likely way this goes. Doesn't need lawyers.
As for Stanford (and maybe Cal) the idea of being associated with "open enrollment" schools like Boise State, UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, San Jose State, New Mexico and Wyoming is simply not something they want. The level of play is fine, but the institutional association is a no-go. The WCC is both more local and high admission standards that more fit Stanford. It's basically a California league and fine in baseball and not bad in basketball, often getting two bids. 7 of the WCC schools are in California, 4 of those within a two-hour (or less) bus ride. Perfect for all the non-revenue sports. If Gonzaga stays it's a bonus. The Cardinal would likely be competing every year for conference titles and NCAA berths. (Cal would have some issues being in a conference with religious schools like SCU, SMC, LMU, Gonzaga, Pepperdine and Portland.)
The issue for Stanford (and maybe Cal) is getting a TV deal for their home games. It's much easier to see Stanford putting together a schedule than Cal. Washington, Arizona, BYU, Utah and Colorado all have OOC holes to fill as a result of changing conferences. Likely Washington State and Oregon State will as well when they join the MWC schools. Some Big 12 schools like K State and Houston also need to replace OOC games they have with incoming schools. Plenty of turmoil to allow building a schedule. Again, the one issue is a TV deal.
For Cal the problem with Football independence is the WCC won't work for them due to clashing mission, while the Big West is far too low a level (except baseball) and the Mountain West doesn't accept non-football members. The one thing Cal could do, is make a deal with the MWC, similar to Hawaii, to have it's own TV provider, and work with Stanford to set up a consistent Cal-Stanford package the two could sell to a network for more money than either as stand alone, say a Scripps/ION.
But anyway, my opinion is based on the differing missions of the schools, and the legal issues the MWC has to grapple with.
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Zeigler: Could MWC and Pac-12 merge into one 16-team conference?
