I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
You don't understand the ACC GOR - it takes ALL of a school's media revenues if it leaves.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2023 03:13 PM by Atlanta.)
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
You don't understand the ACC GOR - it takes ALL of a school's media revenues if it leaves.
Unless the school negotiates other terms. You have to keep that in mind. It's being reported that FSU has worked out a $300 million buyout to be paid annually in $30 million increments.
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
You don't understand the ACC GOR - it takes ALL of a school's media revenues if it leaves.
I do understand. I'm saying seems like (at least) Florida St either doesn't care or will find a way out/settle in court. Their board chairman said today that the GOR will not stop them.
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
Bolded is the more likely scenario. Keep in mind that the Big East/AAC got down to three teams and still stayed alive.
Those teams plus the top 75% of the MWC > 100% of the MWC plus those teams.
Here is a question I'd be interested to hear our SMU fans like Pony answer. I'm making a lot of assumptions here, but the PAC was just offered 20m per team(rumored half-shares for call-ups) for the current roster of schools. One can assume that the bottom third aren't worth the 20m without the others.
So, again hypothetical scenario, would SMU prefer to be with PAC 2-4(call it bottom 2-4 teams) plus the top half of the MWC for (again hypothetical) 10m a year? Basically trading time slots on ESPN and time zones for streaming with a power conference name and a pay bump.
What say you? Easier way to ask, what's your walk-away point with regard to money and composition, if there is one?
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2023 03:43 PM by CoastalJuan.)
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
You don't understand the ACC GOR - it takes ALL of a school's media revenues if it leaves.
This is what lawyers are for- UNC cheated with fake classes for 25 years and lawyered their way out of it with no penalties.
(08-02-2023 12:06 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote: Here's what we should be striving for. 16 solid programs. It will cut down on travel. 9 conference games. 7 in your division, 2 from the other division. Conference Championship between top team in each division.
West teams get to play Central Time Zone games. Games on ESPN, CBS, and not on Apple TV where nobody will see you. Teams get 8-10 million.
minor sports play in their own divisions. West Coast teams start games at 5:30 Pacific. East Coast teams start at 7:00 Central.
Every team would be in a better situation with this than to join the PAC just to be with Oregon State and Washington State on Apple TV for 10 million.
Basketball could still keep Wichita State, and add maybe Gonzaga. If Not Gonzaga, Then St.Louis or something like that.
West
SMU
Boise State
Colorado State
Utah State
UNLV
Air Force
SDSU
Fresno State
East
Memphis
Tulane
USF
East Carolina
Navy
Army
Temple
Tulsa
reserves: UAB, Rice, Nevada, UTSA, North Texas.
No one gets left behind in any merger. It has happened to Memphis and it has happened to Rice too many times for us to have this attitude. Everyone is in. No one from either league is better than anyone else. We do it together, or not at all. Each school gets $9 million, and we move forward.
(08-01-2023 09:42 AM)Ourland Wrote: With the PAC meeting in a few hours, here's a quick thread to guess the projected money behind its deal...
I'll take a shot. If the revenue were distributed equally, I'd say $24 million per remaining school. Any newbies will get $10 million each.
The PAC12 is in real jeopardy of falling apart at this point. If the Arizona schools go to the B12 its over for them
I just don't see it. There's still Oregon and Washington sitting there waiting on the BIG10. As long as six remain, suckers will join up. Rice already did its time out West. It's a sorry existence. It's the reason we turned down the MWC. I'm glad it's unlikely that we are asked to join the PAC.
I agree at 6 they can still rebuild, but there's no way this league is signing a GOR at this point, and my guess is that's a requirement of this current awful deal on the table.
You could be right. I read that the BIG10 may be warming up to the idea of expanding.
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
You don't understand the ACC GOR - it takes ALL of a school's media revenues if it leaves.
I do understand. I'm saying seems like (at least) Florida St either doesn't care or will find a way out/settle in court. Their board chairman said today that the GOR will not stop them.
That's a lot of risk with no guarantees. Just heard today (again) that the B1G numbers aren't solid because no one wants to play late season night games (required by their media deal). And we all know that ESPN is in a money crunch. So where is the assurance either of the SEC or the B1G can actually make the payments to make FSU whole?
I don’t think it’s an either or proposition. Joining a newly re-branded PAC would be our first priority, and I think the administration will make it happen if it comes to that. Start in 2024. Require an ‘eastern’ pod with Memphis and Tulane and Rice (for Rice and Tulane require minimum athletic budgets etc). PAC reapproaches ESPN looking for a deal more favorable to their terms. Reapproach Amazon for Friday late Night PAC time slot sub license. Ironically ESPN could ultimately wind up with their ‘PAC’ after dark but at their price if they add the top Mtn West schools to the new PAC. Total package 12-15 million per team? Simultaneously robs Fox of their top Mtn West content. Honestly not what Pony had hoped for, but it’s a good plan for the next media contract, especially if the eastern pod actually performs on the field/court.
(08-02-2023 03:42 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
Bolded is the more likely scenario. Keep in mind that the Big East/AAC got down to three teams and still stayed alive.
Those teams plus the top 75% of the MWC > 100% of the MWC plus those teams.
Here is a question I'd be interested to hear our SMU fans like Pony answer. I'm making a lot of assumptions here, but the PAC was just offered 20m per team(rumored half-shares for call-ups) for the current roster of schools. One can assume that the bottom third aren't worth the 20m without the others.
So, again hypothetical scenario, would SMU prefer to be with PAC 2-4(call it bottom 2-4 teams) plus the top half of the MWC for (again hypothetical) 10m a year? Basically trading time slots on ESPN and time zones for streaming with a power conference name and a pay bump.
What say you? Easier way to ask, what's your walk-away point with regard to money and composition, if there is one?
(08-01-2023 11:12 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote: Those teams didn't want to come when we had UCF, Cincy, and Houston. Now they would accept an invite to play the bottom half of CUSA? Are you guys serious?
My brain hurts.
It will have to come out.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2023 11:11 PM by mikeinoki.)
(08-02-2023 06:24 PM)MainePony Wrote: I don’t think it’s an either or proposition. Joining a newly re-branded PAC would be our first priority, and I think the administration will make it happen if it comes to that. Start in 2024. Require an ‘eastern’ pod with Memphis and Tulane and Rice (for Rice and Tulane require minimum athletic budgets etc). PAC reapproaches ESPN looking for a deal more favorable to their terms. Reapproach Amazon for Friday late Night PAC time slot sub license. Ironically ESPN could ultimately wind up with their ‘PAC’ after dark but at their price if they add the top Mtn West schools to the new PAC. Total package 12-15 million per team? Simultaneously robs Fox of their top Mtn West content. Honestly not what Pony had hoped for, but it’s a good plan for the next media contract, especially if the eastern pod actually performs on the field/court.
(08-02-2023 03:42 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(08-02-2023 03:02 PM)hooverblazer Wrote: I would say the chances of the Pac12 disappearing are increasing. The $20M/yr with almost all games on Apple TV is not something most Pac12 schools will sign up for. Based on the news coming out of the Big10 today, it seems we're trending towards Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal going to the Big10 and Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah going to Big12. At that point Oregon St and Washington St will have no choice but to go the MWC (or the MWC dissolves & joins the two Pac12 schools to keep the Pac12 name).
The next question will be does the SEC sit still with the Big10 going to 20 teams or do they feel the need to respond? My gut tells me they would respond. If the SEC takes 2-4 from the ACC (GOR be damned), the AAC will be raided again. This would be bad news for the CUSA teams that just joined.
Bolded is the more likely scenario. Keep in mind that the Big East/AAC got down to three teams and still stayed alive.
Those teams plus the top 75% of the MWC > 100% of the MWC plus those teams.
Here is a question I'd be interested to hear our SMU fans like Pony answer. I'm making a lot of assumptions here, but the PAC was just offered 20m per team(rumored half-shares for call-ups) for the current roster of schools. One can assume that the bottom third aren't worth the 20m without the others.
So, again hypothetical scenario, would SMU prefer to be with PAC 2-4(call it bottom 2-4 teams) plus the top half of the MWC for (again hypothetical) 10m a year? Basically trading time slots on ESPN and time zones for streaming with a power conference name and a pay bump.
What say you? Easier way to ask, what's your walk-away point with regard to money and composition, if there is one?
If SMU is being invited to the MWC + Oregon State and Washington State on Apple TV playing in the west coast.... they should reconsider...
/
PAC media deal...what are the numbers?
