RE: FCS "Prospects" COMPARISONS; Budgets, Revenue, Etc..
Football-only additions would only help us in the following scenarios:
1) Market Reach - I hate putting this one first, but since money is the root of college football, it really is the most important factor. That said, it should ONLY be considered if a major network (especially our current partners CBS and ESPN) explicitly state that adding _____ will get us more money and/or better slots on linear TV, and it's enough of a difference to overcome the money lost by sharing the CFP revenue with one or more additional mouths. There aren't a lot of candidates in this bracket. There are no obvious choices, but you could make a reasonable argument for Delaware, Mo State, and *maybe* NDSU, though the Bison are not in a great market and may not sustain the same "brand" in FBS that they enjoy in FCS.
2) Conference Strength - Call this the DBU factor. Just as it made sense to add DBU in baseball, if a school is available which substantially increases our football strength, it might make sense to add them. Not only would the new team itself potentially become a contender for a CFP spot, but the increased schedule strength would benefit our other top teams as well. The only semi-reliable way to compare FBS and FCS strength is the final 2022 Sagarin ranking, so I'll include it as well as this year's Athlon preseason FCS ranking. Any Sagarin ranking below 100 is a strong team, and a ranking below 75 would establish them as immediate contenders for the CUSA title, once their transition was complete. For comparison, 2022 CUSA champ UTSA was ranked 63, WKU was ranked 67, Sun Belt champ troy state was 55, and AAC champ Tulane was 25. Right now, the only FCS teams in this bracket are SDSU (preseason #1 FCS, Sagarin 41), NDSU (preseason #2, Sagarin 71), Montana State (preseason #3, Sagarin 80), and Montana (preseason #10, Sagarin 96). Delaware is ranked #25, but their Sagarin ranking was a pedestrian 149.
3) Travel / Regional Factors - Travel is not really an issue in football, so this is not nearly as important as it would be for an all-sports or non-football member. And when it comes to travel budgets, regional divisions don't really help at all in football like they would in OLY sports, so the fact a candidate or two might allow us to break into regional divisions for football ultimately doesn't make one bit of difference. That said, while there's no need for "travel partners" in football, adding a nearby conference rival for a member school could help strengthen fan interaction and improve the cohesiveness of the conference overall. So looking solely at potential football-only schools who might serve as a geographical rival... well, the cupboard is bare. Delaware could arguably serve this purpose for Liberty, but at ~300 miles away from Lynchburg, they're not exactly nearby. Mo State is no better, at nearly 400 miles away from Ruston and 500 away from WKU and SHSU. So it's probably safe to say there are no real candidates here.
So looking at the candidates:
NDSU - brings more "name recognition" than "market" but we'll count it; would definitely help with strength; would be a minus for travel. Would only work as a football-only addition.
SDSU - like NDSU without the name recognition; very strong, but again, a minus for travel. Would only work as a football-only addition.
Delaware - would (arguably) bring a market; solid but not an improvement in strength; arguably provides a (distant) "nearby" rival for Liberty; carries some academic prestige (R1), but this is really not a factor for football-only schools; would probably be a stronger candidate for all-sports membership if we could get them.
Mo State - would (arguably) bring a market; mediocre strength would not really help us; does not provide much of a regional boost, but close enough they could help expand the footprint without creating yet another island; like Delaware, they'd probably be a stronger all-sports candidate than a strong football-only candidate.
The Montanas - I'll lump these two together. Despite their very strong fan bases, they bring no real market value. They would be very strong football additions, but make no regional sense, unless the CUSA league office has its heart set on landing the Montanas and Dakotas to seize control of the mid-continent Canadian border. If the Montanas have FBS desires, they're far more suited to the MWC than to CUSA. Not a realistic candidate.
(This post was last modified: 06-30-2023 11:03 AM by whupemall.)
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