Now that we know that San Diego State is definitely leaving the MWC, they are counting heavily on either the Pac-12 or Big XII to extend an invitation. I think most expect one or the other to do so.

But if their clear target, the Pac-12, decides to stand pat then it gets interesting.

Since they are not an existing P5 member, the only way they get into the Big XII and not cost current members significant cash is if it is to even out the admission of other Pac-12 members, it begs the question: Do they get left in limbo?

The short-term options are limited:

1. Big West or WAC membership with football independence. It would be very tough and expensive to build an indy schedule on very short notice. As a Liberty guy, I can vouch for the significance of that challenge. There is also their outsized budget and exposure that would not be welcomed by many of the members of those two leagues.

2. Temporary CUSA membership. This is the one league that likely let them in knowing full well that it is just temporary. But it would help the Aztecs with scheduling and include a few teams they have historically had as league rivals in years past.

What am I missing?

If the PAC collapses, the Big 12 avoids SDSU, and the MWC refuses to take them back, why not screw the MWC and join the AAC conference? See if you can get other MWC schools to join (AF/CSU?). Money should be similar when considering additional travel and I think SDSU should get a full share unlike the 6 schools just added.

That's a 3rd option that didn't come to me immediately. The downside is that they'd be in a similar league with another league buyout to pay if they finally get an invitation up in just a year or two. Going to boosters two times in a row to cover the cost of exiting a league is not something ADs embrace with enthusiasm.

Join the WCC for non-football sports. Totally not an institutional fit, but Gonzaga would probably like them as a replacement for BYU.

SDSU could swing Big West Olympic sports with AAC football only.

(06-16-2023 04:59 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  If the PAC collapses, the Big 12 avoids SDSU, and the MWC refuses to take them back, why not screw the MWC and join the AAC conference? See if you can get other MWC schools to join (AF/CSU?). Money should be similar when considering additional travel and I think SDSU should get a full share unlike the 6 schools just added.

Boise St. + SDSU ===> AAC

BSU + SDSU ===> BE (2.0)

(06-16-2023 05:11 PM)YNot Wrote:  SDSU could swing Big West Olympic sports with AAC football only.

UCSD took their place. No go.

(06-16-2023 05:16 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:11 PM)YNot Wrote:  SDSU could swing Big West Olympic sports with AAC football only.

UCSD took their place. No go.

Really? The Big West wouldn't add another CSU school that fits perfectly institutionally and geographically, who recently played for the NCAAB national championship?

IMO, this is a backward reading of the tea leaves.

You don't tell the MWC that you're out unless you know damned well the invite is coming. The "Thamel (sources): SMU tells the AAC they're gonna leave" at the same time indicates to me that both schools KNOW that Pac-12 negotiations are "You get more money with San Diego and Dallas in the footprint than without them."

It reminds me a lot of in 2015 around the MLB trade deadline. Twitter reports by beat writers were saying that the NY Mets had traded Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez. Gomez IG'd that he was saying goodbye and off to NY. But the Mets were playing on ESPN, with Wilmer Flores in the game at shortstop... and EVERYONE started losing their minds that the Mets were idiots for continuing to play a player who'd been traded! I'm arguing with Mets fans that "The fact that he's IN THE GAME means its NOT DONE." But everyone believes the tweets instead of the actions of the people the tweets are about.

THIS reminds me of that situation. If you believe the TWEETS about SDSU and SMU, then their ACTIONS tell you what's coming next: A Pac-12 invite SOON.

Don't assume that all the tweets (Leaving MWC/AAC, but no invitations) are right and they're just acting recklessly/foolishly for no reason.

(06-16-2023 05:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:16 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:11 PM)YNot Wrote:  SDSU could swing Big West Olympic sports with AAC football only.

UCSD took their place. No go.

Really? The Big West wouldn't add another CSU school that fits perfectly institutionally and geographically, who recently played for the NCAAB national championship?

It's more on SDSU than anything else. Their fans would revolt at the prospect of having to go back for the 3rd time (or 4th, if you include women's sports). Especially with UCSD in now. Plus there's that whole Cal State - UC balance thing.

It's a no go.

The Big West would do it in a heartbeat (just like they were going to during the Big East Football Only offer).

Also, the WCC would probably jump at it, because they'd know it's temporary, makes their league better in basketball, and gives them SDSU vs Gonzaga and SDSU vs USD to sell to TV.


But I think you have to assume that SDSU (a) knows what they're doing and we'll find out later or (b) SDSU was just straight up lied to by a P5 conference.

(06-16-2023 05:35 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  The Big West would do it in a heartbeat (just like they were going to during the Big East Football Only offer).

Also, the WCC would probably jump at it, because they'd know it's temporary, makes their league better in basketball, and gives them SDSU vs Gonzaga and SDSU vs USD to sell to TV.


But I think you have to assume that SDSU (a) knows what they're doing and we'll find out later or (b) SDSU was just straight up lied to by a P5 conference.

I'm certain they wouldn't, not this time. And certain is not a word I use often here.
UCSD's presence changes the equation. The Cal States made equal balance a thing with them and before San Diego State chose to stay in the MW, they didn't show much interest in letting UCSD move up. The UCs won't forget that and be outnumbered again if they can help it.

Not an option.

SDSU is not stranding itself in no-man’s land. Crazy to think people here actually think they would.

(06-16-2023 05:22 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  IMO, this is a backward reading of the tea leaves.

You don't tell the MWC that you're out unless you know damned well the invite is coming. The "Thamel (sources): SMU tells the AAC they're gonna leave" at the same time indicates to me that both schools KNOW that Pac-12 negotiations are "You get more money with San Diego and Dallas in the footprint than without them."

It reminds me a lot of in 2015 around the MLB trade deadline. Twitter reports by beat writers were saying that the NY Mets had traded Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez. Gomez IG'd that he was saying goodbye and off to NY. But the Mets were playing on ESPN, with Wilmer Flores in the game at shortstop... and EVERYONE started losing their minds that the Mets were idiots for continuing to play a player who'd been traded! I'm arguing with Mets fans that "The fact that he's IN THE GAME means its NOT DONE." But everyone believes the tweets instead of the actions of the people the tweets are about.

THIS reminds me of that situation. If you believe the TWEETS about SDSU and SMU, then their ACTIONS tell you what's coming next: A Pac-12 invite SOON.

Don't assume that all the tweets (Leaving MWC/AAC, but no invitations) are right and they're just acting recklessly/foolishly for no reason.

Alright, but then why did SDS reportedly tell the MW that their "withdrawal letter" wasn't actually a resignation?

Seems to me that if a PAC invite was a done deal then they would want to be clearly on the record that they were formally filing for withdrawal before June 30.

(06-16-2023 04:53 PM)SlyFox Wrote:  Now that we know that San Diego State is definitely leaving the MWC, they are counting heavily on either the Pac-12 or Big XII to extend an invitation. I think most expect one or the other to do so.

But if their clear target, the Pac-12, decides to stand pat then it gets interesting.

Since they are not an existing P5 member, the only way they get into the Big XII and not cost current members significant cash is if it is to even out the admission of other Pac-12 members, it begs the question: Do they get left in limbo?

The short-term options are limited:

1. Big West or WAC membership with football independence. It would be very tough and expensive to build an indy schedule on very short notice. As a Liberty guy, I can vouch for the significance of that challenge. There is also their outsized budget and exposure that would not be welcomed by many of the members of those two leagues.

2. Temporary CUSA membership. This is the one league that likely let them in knowing full well that it is just temporary. But it would help the Aztecs with scheduling and include a few teams they have historically had as league rivals in years past.

What am I missing?

Independence, in everything.

(06-16-2023 05:29 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:16 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:11 PM)YNot Wrote:  SDSU could swing Big West Olympic sports with AAC football only.

UCSD took their place. No go.

Really? The Big West wouldn't add another CSU school that fits perfectly institutionally and geographically, who recently played for the NCAAB national championship?

It's more on SDSU than anything else. Their fans would revolt at the prospect of having to go back for the 3rd time (or 4th, if you include women's sports). Especially with UCSD in now. Plus there's that whole Cal State - UC balance thing.

It's a no go.

Huge opportunity for the Banana Slugs!

SDSU has a dance partner. Two actually. But we will be dancing with the PAC.

(06-16-2023 05:19 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:16 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:11 PM)YNot Wrote:  SDSU could swing Big West Olympic sports with AAC football only.

UCSD took their place. No go.

Really? The Big West wouldn't add another CSU school that fits perfectly institutionally and geographically, who recently played for the NCAAB national championship?

The Big West has balanced CSU and UC membership. The only way UCSD got in was adding CSU Bakersfield. Unlikely they would give up that balance.

(06-16-2023 06:33 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  SDSU has a dance partner. Two actually. But we will be dancing with the PAC.

So PAC is adding 3 teams? Colorado to Big 12 confirmed

(06-16-2023 05:52 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(06-16-2023 05:35 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  The Big West would do it in a heartbeat (just like they were going to during the Big East Football Only offer).

Also, the WCC would probably jump at it, because they'd know it's temporary, makes their league better in basketball, and gives them SDSU vs Gonzaga and SDSU vs USD to sell to TV.


But I think you have to assume that SDSU (a) knows what they're doing and we'll find out later or (b) SDSU was just straight up lied to by a P5 conference.

I'm certain they wouldn't, not this time. And certain is not a word I use often here.
UCSD's presence changes the equation. The Cal States made equal balance a thing with them and before San Diego State chose to stay in the MW, they didn't show much interest in letting UCSD move up. The UCs won't forget that and be outnumbered again if they can help it.

Not an option.

Yep. People don’t appreciate the antagonism between the two systems.