RE: Pac 12 members have agreed on terms in Grant of Rights
The clear take on the WSU meeting minutes is that the board is giving President Schulz authority for the next six months to sign a grant of rights and approve a media deal the Pac-12 is able to present him, without needing to come back to the board for approval.
Washington State is not going anywhere. If the Pac-12 loses schools (which I think begins Friday), they will start backfilling with MWC schools and maybe SMU. I suspect the exodus might happen not all in one year but over two or three years, with some schools not signing the GoR.
For San Diego State, Colorado State (who seem to be 3rd line, and would not get called up unless a 3rd or 4th school exits) and any other MWC schools, June 30th is a key deadline to avoid a hefty jump in the exit fee ($17M tacked on), likely greater than the Pac-12 media rights would bring them, effectively delaying their coming on board for a year. No such deadline for SMU, as the American is 30 months, but a settlement price has been well established by several predecessors who left the league at around $16-17M (UConn, Cincy, Houston, UCF) and they have the funds to pay for the move. SMU is also willing to come in initially at a discount.
The Pac-12 has for itself a slightly different deadline, as their calendar year ends on August 1st, not June 30th like other conferences. While the time limit for a deal seems to have been reached by Colorado, Arizona is likely giving Kliavkoff a few more weeks, so I expect their possible exit to be in the July time frame. Oregon and Washington might be inclined to agree to a B1G move at a discount another year down the road, the 2025 season, should they work out a deal with Fox and the B1G (they'll take a steep discount to get in, very steep). That could buy the Pac-12 time to bring in additional MWC schools, and depending upon the media contract terms, possibly at reduced rate, much like we see UAB, UTSA, North Texas, Rice, FAU and Charlotte agreed in the AAC. (My WAG on the 4th school after SDSU, SMU and CSU is either UNLV or Fresno State)
The really major exodus could happen not now but in five years when the new contract nears expiration. Very volatile, and completely dependent upon whatever deal Kliavkoff can come up with. Not much time left for him to get it done. Hard deadlines approaching.
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