(05-15-2023 02:27 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The issue is that beyond Washington and Oregon, are any of those other Pac-12 schools really worth more than Georgia Tech, Duke, Pitt or even Syracuse that the Magnificent 7 would be leaving behind? Heck, even if you were to include Big 12 schools, I’d say TCU has the requisite value, but Kansas doesn’t if they don’t want to include Duke.

A stand-alone league really can’t add many/any more schools before the per school payouts for FSU/Clemson go back down to ACC levels, which defeats the purpose of breaking away.

They can't have a western division without UO and UW.

I'll be honest. This is stupider than the alliance... unless these schools already have verbal invitations from the P2. While Sankey may have given assurances to 3-4 schools, I doubt he committed to all seven.

If I were Sankey, I'd consider some regional split with three divisions. Beyond 22 necessitates it. I think the B1G can commit to UNC and UVa only... potentially Miami. Sankey has to take the other four, and that's a reach without UNC.

Who knows, Sankey could be going nuclear:

UT, CU, Utah, A&M, Mizzou, OU, ASU, AU
LSU, Ark, Ole Miss, MSU, Auburn, Bama, Tenn, Vandy
UGa, UF, FSU, Clemson, USC, Kentucky, VaTech, NCSU

(05-15-2023 02:32 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  If the B1G and SEC are looking at 20, one of the 7 is going to get left out.

B1G: Washington, Oregon, Virginia, Miami
SEC: Clemson, Florida St., N.Carolina, Virginia Tech

I don't see VT or NC St. as lock. SEC could take UVa or Miami and B1G could go west for 1 more.

Virginia is definitely not above the Missouri line, though I think they're pretty close to right on top of it. Does Miami bring enough to carry UVA? No way. I doubt that the 2 of them combined bring more than 1 full B1G share. If Iowa and tOSU were ambivalent about UW/UO, what will they say about 2 others that bring even less value?

Exactly the seven that would seem to have the best B1G/SEC prospects. Save arguably for Duke.

Though I think NC State and VT might be optimistic in that regard.

(05-15-2023 02:50 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  It seems to me perhaps they are exploring a way to “Mountain West” the “WAC” whilst keeping the guaranteed payouts intact somehow, but then garnering a boost from ESPN for the Seven. That or straight up joining the SEC with an eighth from somewhere else

Why do all this work now when it cannot happen until 2036?

Masochism?

Seriously, if ESPN can move them on one end of the GOR, and Chapel Hill and company support it on the other end of the GOR, wouldn't you take a flyer on the verdict of that Kangaroo Court convened in North Carolina? Now if ESPN helps place the rest in positions where they lose no revenue or access you have an end run.

(05-15-2023 02:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:32 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  If the B1G and SEC are looking at 20, one of the 7 is going to get left out.

B1G: Washington, Oregon, Virginia, Miami
SEC: Clemson, Florida St., N.Carolina, Virginia Tech

I don't see VT or NC St. as lock. SEC could take UVa or Miami and B1G could go west for 1 more.

Virginia is definitely not above the Missouri line, though I think they're pretty close to right on top of it. Does Miami bring enough to carry UVA? No way. I doubt that the 2 of them combined bring more than 1 full B1G share. If Iowa and tOSU were ambivalent about UW/UO, what will they say about 2 others that bring even less value?

All I was doing is trying to fit as many as I could into 2, 20 team conferences for it to make sense for 7 schools to be in on breaking the GOR.

My thought is this. UNC, FSU to the SEC. UW, UO to B1G for the next round of moves for the P2. If SEC goes to 20 then Clemson and Miami or UVa? I don't think SEC wants 3 Fla. I don't think UVa is that great for them either, they're better fir in B1G.

Look at all these grenades from Yormark!

You got to give the man credit though - Insiders at Washington and Florida State; Sports Illustrated columnists, Brett McMurphy, and even Flugaur. Wow. Well connected and well orchestrated!

Sharp lawyers have met for several months and still have not cracked the code. It indicates, IMO, the GOR is tough to break.

This is IMO the death knell for ACC cohesion and unity.

Everything they do from now on will IMO be viewed through the lens of the M7 and (versus) the rest.

(05-15-2023 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I was off by one, I had Duke and not Virginia Tech.

It seems to me perhaps they are exploring a way to “Mountain West” the “WAC” whilst keeping the guaranteed payouts intact somehow, but then garnering a boost from ESPN for the Seven. That or straight up joining the SEC with an eighth from somewhere else, JR’s pick of Kansas makes a lot of sense.

You have a very East Coast centric league left over in:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Louisville
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech

I don’t see many of those schools opting to join the Big XII. Instead, planting a flag in Brooklyn, or a merger with the Big East seems more likely. UConn and South Florida would certainly be interested, perhaps Temple as well.

I would expect Duke, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Pitt to end up in The Big 10. If that happened Louisville would try to join The Big 12.

Now here's a guy with his finger on the pulse of conference realignment.

Think about being the top person on The Athletic's College Football food chain and having this little comprehension of what's taking place

(05-15-2023 03:20 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

Now here's a guy with his finger on the pulse of conference realignment.

Think about being on the top person on The Athletic's College Football food chain and having this little comprehension of what's taking place

Editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage.

If I was the Athletic, I would be embarrassed.

(05-15-2023 03:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  This is IMO the death knell for ACC cohesion and unity.

Everything they do from now on will IMO be viewed through the lens of the M7 and (versus) the rest.

I don't think so Quo. I think it opens negotiations about how they may all be placed in situations where they do not lose access or revenue.

Let's say hypothetically ESPN moves the 7 at pro rata and adds one from elsewhere to the SEC. Now the discussion is about who can land in the Big 12, who might the Big 10 take, and who gets to collect exit fees. I can see them getting out of the GOR by consensus depending upon the how the exit fee is negotiated. You have 7 schools left. The focus then becomes finding them P conference homes. A couple could head to the Big 10, and the rest to the Big 12. The declaration forces sober dealings about the future.

(05-15-2023 02:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:27 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The issue is that beyond Washington and Oregon, are any of those other Pac-12 schools really worth more than Georgia Tech, Duke, Pitt or even Syracuse that the Magnificent 7 would be leaving behind? Heck, even if you were to include Big 12 schools, I’d say TCU has the requisite value, but Kansas doesn’t if they don’t want to include Duke.

A stand-alone league really can’t add many/any more schools before the per school payouts for FSU/Clemson go back down to ACC levels, which defeats the purpose of breaking away.

They can't have a western division without UO and UW.

I'll be honest. This is stupider than the alliance... unless these schools already have verbal invitations from the P2. While Sankey may have given assurances to 3-4 schools, I doubt he committed to all seven.

If I were Sankey, I'd consider some regional split with three divisions. Beyond 22 necessitates it. I think the B1G can commit to UNC and UVa only... potentially Miami. Sankey has to take the other four, and that's a reach without UNC.

Who knows, Sankey could be going nuclear:

UT, CU, Utah, A&M, Mizzou, OU, ASU, AU
LSU, Ark, Ole Miss, MSU, Auburn, Bama, Tenn, Vandy
UGa, UF, FSU, Clemson, USC, Kentucky, VaTech, NCSU

I would be incredibly surprised if all seven received invites. I'm guessing that there are 3-4 who have received assurances, and the rest would rather not continue in the leftover ACC as constructed.

(05-15-2023 03:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 03:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  This is IMO the death knell for ACC cohesion and unity.

Everything they do from now on will IMO be viewed through the lens of the M7 and (versus) the rest.

I don't think so Quo. I think it opens negotiations about how they may all be placed in situations where they do not lose access or revenue.

Let's say hypothetically ESPN moves the 7 at pro rata and adds one from elsewhere to the SEC. Now the discussion is about who can land in the Big 12, who might the Big 10 take, and who gets to collect exit fees. I can see them getting out of the GOR by consensus depending upon the how the exit fee is negotiated. You have 7 schools left. The focus then becomes finding them P conference homes. A couple could head to the Big 10, and the rest to the Big 12. The declaration forces sober dealings about the future.

Funny, this seems to be playing out just as you predicted…almost flawlessly. I thought it would take a bit longer but down the same path and perhaps with more to the B1G. The ‘36ers are quickly changing their tunes.

(05-15-2023 03:23 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage.

If I was the Athletic, I would be embarrassed.

Mandel has been a guy resting on his laurels for years.

He was a playoff naysayer right up until the very end and has haughtily dismissed realignment from Day 1.

The Athletic managment gave a flip about College Football it would do better

(05-15-2023 01:31 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  If this actually happened you’d have Louisville, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech left as full time members.

The big 12 would no doubt be interested in some of these schools. The question would become how many? and then a decision for the ACC schools to jump or rebuild with UConn and some AAC call ups…

Gotta think Pitt and Louisville would be absolute locks for a Big XII invite. If your a Memphis fan, this news must be tough to swallow.

(05-15-2023 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t see many of those schools opting to join the Big XII. Instead, planting a flag in Brooklyn, or a merger with the Big East seems more likely. UConn and South Florida would certainly be interested, perhaps Temple as well.

The Big East isn't welcoming back those that jumped ship, because they couldn't be trusted then...or now.

(05-15-2023 03:28 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:27 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The issue is that beyond Washington and Oregon, are any of those other Pac-12 schools really worth more than Georgia Tech, Duke, Pitt or even Syracuse that the Magnificent 7 would be leaving behind? Heck, even if you were to include Big 12 schools, I’d say TCU has the requisite value, but Kansas doesn’t if they don’t want to include Duke.

A stand-alone league really can’t add many/any more schools before the per school payouts for FSU/Clemson go back down to ACC levels, which defeats the purpose of breaking away.

They can't have a western division without UO and UW.

I'll be honest. This is stupider than the alliance... unless these schools already have verbal invitations from the P2. While Sankey may have given assurances to 3-4 schools, I doubt he committed to all seven.

If I were Sankey, I'd consider some regional split with three divisions. Beyond 22 necessitates it. I think the B1G can commit to UNC and UVa only... potentially Miami. Sankey has to take the other four, and that's a reach without UNC.

Who knows, Sankey could be going nuclear:

UT, CU, Utah, A&M, Mizzou, OU, ASU, AU
LSU, Ark, Ole Miss, MSU, Auburn, Bama, Tenn, Vandy
UGa, UF, FSU, Clemson, USC, Kentucky, VaTech, NCSU

I would be incredibly surprised if all seven received invites. I'm guessing that there are 3-4 who have received assurances, and the rest would rather not continue in the leftover ACC as constructed.

Don't bet on it. The SEC, and ESPN, agree on one thing. They like to hold the hammer on ad rates in every one of their states. These 7 give them that in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida, where I suppose they figured having Miami was a demographic they wanted since neither UF or FSU really carry Miami. The bad news for Georgia Tech is that they don't carry Atlanta, Georgia does roughly 50% to 48% with Clemson, Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama picking up most of the other 2%. The rest of the state is 85% UGa. Add Kansas and you carry that state as well and pick up a portion of the Missouri market you've missed. Add Notre Dame as a partial for ESPN even with the SEC and that reach extends into key Northern Midwestern cities.

When you look at dominating every state on a line from Virginia through Kentucky into Missouri and through to Kansas and South into Texas you have quite the extensive market. And the SEC schools make more money on donations, tickets, concessions, and viewer fan enthusiasm from playing regionally than any other conference. You add about 20 million population with the Virginia and North Carolina schools. You add a supermajority in Florida with those two. And you dominate a 50/50 state in South Carolina by adding Clemson.

From a branding and marketing standpoint this is exactly what the SEC wants what ESPN has tried very hard to build.

(05-15-2023 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I was off by one, I had Duke and not Virginia Tech.

It seems to me perhaps they are exploring a way to “Mountain West” the “WAC” whilst keeping the guaranteed payouts intact somehow, but then garnering a boost from ESPN for the Seven. That or straight up joining the SEC with an eighth from somewhere else, JR’s pick of Kansas makes a lot of sense.

You have a very East Coast centric league left over in:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Louisville
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech

I don’t see many of those schools opting to join the Big XII. Instead, planting a flag in Brooklyn, or a merger with the Big East seems more likely. UConn and South Florida would certainly be interested, perhaps Temple as well.

Louisville and Pitt would join the big 12 in a heartbeat over a neutered ACC/BE Conference with 1/2 the money. ND? BE probably. Now you're down to Syracuse, BC, WF, Duke and GT. Duke would join the big 12 if they kept football, the BE if they dropped football. Syracuse would join the big 12 b/c of football. GT? I have no idea on them, they SHOULD join the big 12 but they might just drop sports all together.

There's nothing about that leftover group that you propose that would lead us to think they could stay together in the face of big 12 advances.

Duke would join the B1G if they dropped football.

(05-15-2023 03:36 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(05-15-2023 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t see many of those schools opting to join the Big XII. Instead, planting a flag in Brooklyn, or a merger with the Big East seems more likely. UConn and South Florida would certainly be interested, perhaps Temple as well.

The Big East isn't welcoming back those that jumped ship, because they couldn't be trusted then...or now.

I think Syracuse would be welcomed back to the Big East, even knowing they will always have a wandering eye.