(05-02-2023 09:51 AM)Johnnychimpo Wrote:  I would assume the more of the 32 conferences that have their best RPI team also win their conference tournament and get the auto-bid the better, right? That way there isn't as many teams with bad RPIs picking up their auto-bid which should allow teams with RPIs in the mid to high 30's to go to a regional as an at-large.

Most of the other conferences don't matter to the SBC teams, in the sense that most do not have any teams remotely likely to get an at large bid. The P 5 don't matter because all will get multiple bids which would have likely included the actual winner as well as the projected winner. The only conferences which would 'steal' a bid if the projected winner does not win are the SBC and CUSA; others which might steal a bid depending on who the actual winner is are the AAC, ASUN and MWC. There is also a remote chance that McNeese might get an at large if SLU wins the Southland by beating McNeese in the finals.

Realistically, NO non P5 with an RPI over 31 will get an at large this year.

(05-03-2023 12:23 AM)CatMom Wrote:  You have to consider that the SEC usually gets 10-12 placements. Couple times the whole conference got in. That diminishes the chance of other conferences getting more at larges in.

It’s actually worse. I recently looked at the last five NCAA Tournaments played and seem to remember the SEC got 12 all 5 years and 13 twice. That doesn’t include 2020 since that tournament didn’t happen.

Wichita and USF both got in as at-larges last season with worse RPIs than what is projected to be this season's bubble. That stings for our teams this season.

It's a big problem when one conference has that many undeserving teams in the tournament. Sure 5 or 6 but 12-13....seesh

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Agree, when you have the same conference playing each other in a Super yeah it's usually because they are better but that conference's odds also go up drastically when they have that many teams 'awarded' tickets to the post-season. When so many conferences play themselves so many times in the post-season I find it very boring and annoying. Might as well have just settled the national stage within your conference tournament and forfeited post-season play at that point. Power 5 regular season to post season rematches are just tacky.

Here's the math: There are 32 autobids. Assuming that all favorites win, there will be 9 conference champions in the top 32 RPI. 5 P5 plus SBC, AAC, ASUN and CUSA. The MWC comes in at 37, the Big West at 38, Southland at 43, Patriot at 52, Summit at 53. That accounts for 14 Conferences. The other 18 are immaterial, as no one in any of them is getting an at large under any set of circumstances. So 53 - 14 = 39. There are 39 teams from 1 through 53 that might get an at large. Starting at the top with non-favorites, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Texas, Duke, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Washington, Georgia, Oregon, Clemson, Auburn, Florida, Baylor, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Minnesota, Utah, Liberty, Cal, Indiana, UCF, Louisville, Ole Miss, Nebraska, South Carolina, Penn State, Michigan and Notre Dame are virtual locks. That is 29 at large. The 3 remaining slots will be between Texas State, Missouri, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Boise, Maryland, Arizona, and South Alabama. I would be shocked if the last 3 in were not all P5.

In the at large pool that is 27 P5 locks, Liberty and UCF, and probably Missouri, Ohio State and Mississippi State.

As a lesson for next year, every non-P5 that has playoff aspirations needs to schedule at least as strong a non-conference schedule as Texas State did this year, and then win a significant number of those games.

These are the non-conference SOS for the 8 non P5 that are more or less locks, whether they win their conference or not:
Louisiana - 2
Wichita State - 42
Central Arkansas - 20
Liberty - 8
Charlotte - 4
UCF - 12
San Diego State -19
CS Fullerton - 1

The evidence is pretty clear.. If your school is not scheduling somewhere in the range above, you won't be getting an at large in the future.