The Oakland A's announced this past day that they're purchasing a plot of land across from the Vegas Strip. It's expected that a new stadium would open there by 2027 at the earliest.

Having the Raider and now the A's leave the Bay Area would be a blow. However, it has been argued that the Bay Area sports market has become crowded lately. Now that the number of major sports teams will go down to four (not counting MLS and WNBA) I wonder if this would benefit the Bay Area college sports teams, Stanford, Cal and San Jose State.

I don't think it can hurt, if even a small % of fans alienated by the Raiders and A's leaving start watching and attending the college sports teams as an alternative.

I honestly don't think it matters at all.

I don't see many Raider fans showing up Cal or Stanford games. Didn't the Niners move to/near San Jose? Pro baseball fans like baseball all summer. My guess is the A's moving would help any minor league teams in the area more than college teams.
How did the sports market get crowded lately? Did a MLS and WNBA team steal fans from the big four league teams? The two teams leaving have been long time residents of a once working class city that fell on tough times and never recovered. The problem is that Oakland as a market could not keep up with other major league cities.

(04-20-2023 07:37 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  The Oakland A's announced this past day that they're purchasing a plot of land across from the Vegas Strip. It's expected that a new stadium would open there by 2027 at the earliest.

Having the Raider and now the A's leave the Bay Area would be a blow. However, it has been argued that the Bay Area sports market has become crowded lately. Now that the number of major sports teams will go down to four (not counting MLS and WNBA) I wonder if this would benefit the Bay Area college sports teams, Stanford, Cal and San Jose State.

I don't think it can hurt, if even a small % of fans alienated by the Raiders and A's leaving start watching and attending the college sports teams as an alternative.

Oakland should have left long ago, they're clearly not wanted there. I don't think it impacts College Conferences one iota though.

I don't think an MLB team would impact CFB/MBB because there's so little overlap between the seasons. A good-sized area not competing with NFL/NHL/NBA is huge though. That's why Boise and Dayton and Wichita have had such good fan support.

At one time in the early/mid 70’s, the East Bay had a team from all four major leagues (Raiders, A’s, Warriors, Seals) and gave solid support to Cal football that included Chuck Muncie, Wesley Walker and Joe Roth. With the A’s finally leaving they have lost all of their major league teams.

With the Raiders gone and the Niners down in the San Jose region, you would think it’s an opportunity for Cal to legitimately invest in their football program and be a local story. In the Tedford years with Rodgers and Marshawn they were an attraction. They invested in their stadium, but now they need to invest in the football program.

Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

As a resident of the Bay Area I can say not in the slightest will this impact college sports here. The big impact will be a further reduction in the importance of UNLV sports as the Raiders, Golden Knights, Athletics and even the Aces simply knock the Rebels off the casual fans list of events to consider going to or even watching.

IMO this shifts the value of Las Vegas even more toward special college athletics like tournaments and neutral site P5 games and reduce the value of UNLV.

If teams win, fans will come.

When Villanova won two national championships, Philly fans forgot about the Sixers and Flyers (Eagles were off season).

If Cal was TCU level, they'd draw in the Bay Area and in the state, especially among alumni. Only reason TCU doesn't draw as much is because they're a private school (of course so is Villanova, I don't know, when TCU had their dream season was DFW excited?)

I don't doubt any P5 team winning will draw fans, even in a crowded city.

Economically, in terms of aggregate demand and aggregate supply of substitutes (though not perfect substitutes), the A's leaving will help San Jose St, Stanford, and Cal and may slightly increase the number of corporate sponsorships and tickets sold.

Won't likely make enough of an impact to sway realignment, however.

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

I also just never see sports fandom as mutually exclusive, either. I watch the Illini, Bears, White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks all with equal fervor and plenty of other markets (see most of the states in the Rust Belt like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania) that manage to have top line pro sports support AND top line college support. The most valuable pro sports brand is the Dallas Cowboys and the most important college sports brand for realignment purposes has been Texas, both of which have overlapping fandom. Think more like Big Ten states as opposed to many of the SEC states (except for Texas) in terms of how mindshare between college and pro sports can very well coexist and thrive.

Ultimately, the only markets actually WORTH anything are pro sports markets, so the colleges and respective conferences that want to maximize value need to know how to coexist with them and ultimately even leverage that synergy to greater value (like the Big Ten largely has done in many of its own markets).

(04-21-2023 10:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

DFW is a 6M metro area. Vegas is about 2M.

Unless you're maybe aiming at a 5-hour-drive radius, tapping into SoCal through Las Vegas? In that case, SoCal and most-of-Texas are probably comparable.

(04-21-2023 10:05 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

DFW is a 6M metro area. Vegas is about 2M.

Unless you're maybe aiming at a 5-hour-drive radius, tapping into SoCal through Las Vegas? In that case, SoCal and most-of-Texas are probably comparable.

Vegas is the #29 MSA with 3 pro teams. The only MSA lower with 3 pro teams is Cleveland (#34) - whose P5 team is 2+ hours away.

The only MSA outside the top-20 with 3+ pro teams and in-market P5 is #27 Pittsburgh. I guess UNLV could emulate Pitt, but that's an exception rather than the norm.

(04-21-2023 10:05 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

DFW is a 6M metro area. Vegas is about 2M.

Unless you're maybe aiming at a 5-hour-drive radius, tapping into SoCal through Las Vegas? In that case, SoCal and most-of-Texas are probably comparable.

Sure, but Vegas is also growing at an insanely fast rate. The DFW market population, which has been one of the strongest growing metro areas for the past few decades, has over doubled in size since 1990 and grown over 1.5 times the size since 2000. However, Vegas is growing even *faster* - its metro area is 4 times(!) the size that it was in 1990, around 2.5 times the size since 2000, and 1.5 times since 2010. Within the next couple of decades, Vegas is going to pass a bunch of markets and move up the rankings in size with that type of growth. If you're investing in a long-term growth market, Vegas is one of the highest on the list.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22966...population

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23043...om%202021.

I'm just saying that if ALL of the pro sports leagues see Vegas as lucrative (and they are clearly doing so), then a P5 conference is going to want to see if there's any way to tap into it. Once again, San Diego and UNLV are the ONLY two pro sports markets (defined as having at least one of the 4 major pro sports leagues in town) that don't also have clear P5 representation (either in the form of being directly in the market or de facto covered by a state flagship/flagship-equivalent, e.g. New Orleans with LSU or Cleveland with Ohio State). San Diego has a good chance of coming off of that list with the Pac-12's interest in SDSU, which would leave Vegas as the lone pro sports market without a clear P5 school. It's a glaring market gap when you look at the overall landscape of college sports (e.g. if we were to look at the P5 as a pro sports league itself, which is essentially how it's working now).

The problem isn't with the Vegas market and the competition there, but rather UNLV itself.

I do not think it matters to the PAC or MW.

(04-21-2023 10:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:05 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

DFW is a 6M metro area. Vegas is about 2M.

Unless you're maybe aiming at a 5-hour-drive radius, tapping into SoCal through Las Vegas? In that case, SoCal and most-of-Texas are probably comparable.

Sure, but Vegas is also growing at an insanely fast rate. The DFW market population, which has been one of the strongest growing metro areas for the past few decades, has over doubled in size since 1990 and grown over 1.5 times the size since 2000. However, Vegas is growing even *faster* - its metro area is 4 times(!) the size that it was in 1990, around 2.5 times the size since 2000, and 1.5 times since 2010. Within the next couple of decades, Vegas is going to pass a bunch of markets and move up the rankings in size with that type of growth. If you're investing in a long-term growth market, Vegas is one of the highest on the list.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22966...population

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23043...om%202021.

While true, keep in mind DFW didn't have the Lake Mead issue to deal with. Some geographers do not believe Vegas' growth is sustainable as it's on a collision course in 10-20 years with an unsolvable issue.

(04-21-2023 10:39 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:05 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-21-2023 10:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

DFW is a 6M metro area. Vegas is about 2M.

Unless you're maybe aiming at a 5-hour-drive radius, tapping into SoCal through Las Vegas? In that case, SoCal and most-of-Texas are probably comparable.

Sure, but Vegas is also growing at an insanely fast rate. The DFW market population, which has been one of the strongest growing metro areas for the past few decades, has over doubled in size since 1990 and grown over 1.5 times the size since 2000. However, Vegas is growing even *faster* - its metro area is 4 times(!) the size that it was in 1990, around 2.5 times the size since 2000, and 1.5 times since 2010. Within the next couple of decades, Vegas is going to pass a bunch of markets and move up the rankings in size with that type of growth. If you're investing in a long-term growth market, Vegas is one of the highest on the list.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22966...population

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23043...om%202021.

While true, keep in mind DFW didn't have the Lake Mead issue to deal with. Some geographers do not believe Vegas' growth is sustainable as it's on a collision course in 10-20 years with an unsolvable issue.

Maybe... but we've heard the same thing about the environmental unsustainability of Phoenix and coastal Florida for many years, yet they're exploding in population more than ever. Not even hurricanes wiping out entire towns in Florida or stories about the long-term water supply issue in Phoenix has done a single thing to dampen the population growth.

To be clear, I'm not saying that it's a good thing. From an environmental perspective, rationally, more people should be moving back to the Midwest long-term because of our great freshwater supply and limited amount of natural disasters (at least relative to the rest of the country), but people keep moving with their feet where they'd rather endure oppressive desert summer heat or coastal hurricanes than cold winter weather. As much as I'd love for there to be some reverse migration where Chicago becomes a growth market again, we have to face reality that the preponderance of the population really DOES simply care more about avoiding cold winters and they'll put up with all of the requisite risks that come with it in the Sun Belt.

I mean it helps the San Francisco Giants the most. I could see it help Cal if they ever won at anything, not sure Stanford is the type of school that will ever attract fans that don’t have a tie to the place. Side note, I’m surprised San Diego doesn’t build an NBA/NHL arena, that’s got to be the best market with the least amount of pro teams. As for the rust belt losing population, probably not weather related because California is also losing things, ie seems to be an state income tax and business regulation issue, see Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Nevada compared to New York, Illinois, Michigan, etc

(04-21-2023 10:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 11:20 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 10:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Doesn’t matter.

The performance of Stanford and Cal are what matter for getting a following in the Bay Area whether the A’s are there or not.

There’s no sports market more crowded than the LA, but USC and UCLA still deliver it.

To the extent that anything from the A’s move applies to college sports, what’s more meaningful is what it means for UNLV. People have it mixed around in thinking that less pro competition is a necessarily a good thing for a college. The fact that every pro league is dying to get into the Las Vegas market is a *good* thing for the P5 prospects of UNLV if they could ever get their act together performance-wise. Within a span of 5 years, the Vegas market has gone from the third rail of all sports organizations to one where leagues can’t get teams in there fast enough. The NBA is going to be next with a likely expansion team. If SDSU gets into the Pac-12, that would leave Las Vegas as the largest market that isn’t home to a P5 school (or clearly covered by a P5 flagship). Someone (maybe the Big 12) will eventually put in a flyer on UNLV because the market is becoming too important to leave open.

Pro teams took out Rice's fan base. Pro teams took out Tulane's fan base.

Vegas is much more similar to Houston and New Orleans than it is to megalopolis Los Angeles - which didn't have an NFL team for decades to compete with USC/UCLA.

There are only so many sports fans to go around.

The flip side is that it's showing how important the Las Vegas market specifically has become in the overall sports landscape.

Why is the Pac-12 looking at SMU? Why did the Big 12 add Houston (which shares a market with Rice), UCF and Cincinnati? They are all in markets with heavy pro sports and/or P5 college competition, yet they're still getting valued more compared to a school like, say, Boise State that actually has a national brand name and doesn't face any direct in-market competition at all.

UNLV is *it* for college sports when it comes to the Las Vegas market. Ultimately, that's an overall strength. The leagues that have choices (like the P5) would vastly prefer schools in major markets. Now, UNLV ultimately has to *do* something athletically - it can't rely on its location alone. However, if UNLV had the athletic performance of Boise State or San Diego State, they'd probably be in the Big 12 already and I firmly believe it would be because of the market. That's an advantage that schools like Boise State or Fresno State simply can't ever have (and it overrides the "better local fan base" factor virtually every time in conference realignment).

I also just never see sports fandom as mutually exclusive, either. I watch the Illini, Bears, White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks all with equal fervor and plenty of other markets (see most of the states in the Rust Belt like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania) that manage to have top line pro sports support AND top line college support. The most valuable pro sports brand is the Dallas Cowboys and the most important college sports brand for realignment purposes has been Texas, both of which have overlapping fandom. Think more like Big Ten states as opposed to many of the SEC states (except for Texas) in terms of how mindshare between college and pro sports can very well coexist and thrive.

Ultimately, the only markets actually WORTH anything are pro sports markets, so the colleges and respective conferences that want to maximize value need to know how to coexist with them and ultimately even leverage that synergy to greater value (like the Big Ten largely has done in many of its own markets).

I think Penn State and Ohio State have it the best, they have the state flagship located outside of the pro sports cities. Penn State and Ohio State can then win without the direct competition from the city fans.

Columbus has it really good, a large metropolitan area without MLB, NFL, or NBA (they have NHL but didn't come until 2000 so Columbus has had years of OSU first).

State College is in the middle of nowhere but they are the #1 for a lot of the state that is closer to the center of the state and they will always have students, alumni, and fans in Philly and Pittsburgh along with the other areas of PA like Harrisburg, Wilkes Barre/Scranton, Allentown/Bethlehem, etc. Of course winning helps. Growing up in Wilkes Barre, we're a little closer geographically to Philly than Happy Valley. I'm a little too young to remember the 1980 Phillies but I do remember the Nittany Lions, the 76ers that won the championship (Dr. J and Moses), and of course the Eagles didn't do crap. Pittsburgh's way on the other side of the state but the Steelers were popular. I'm not there anymore but I can imagine the Penguins are popular now because the Penguins minor league franchise is in Wilkes Barre. W-B is also fairly close to New York. The Yankees are fairly popular.

If Illinois won like Penn State did, they'd own the state and the Chicago suburbs the way Penn State owns PA. When I was there, most of my friends were from the Chicago burbs.