Of interest is that tonight on my way home, I listened to the "Cover 3" podcast on Spotify where the hosts (which includes Danny Kanell) were discussing realignment and such. During their discussions that actually discussed the idea that Cuse and BC could "stop playing big-time football" and instead choose to focus on basketball as part of the Big East, agreeing that it could occur.

On that note, I think a bunch of schools could choose to not participate in the future. I guess will find out over the next decade or so.

(04-19-2023 10:33 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(04-19-2023 09:48 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't know - I think that ACC group would work really well for Cincinnati. I'm also assuming that Kansas and TCU (at a minimum) would be targeted by that group. (Note that I'm putting aside the exit fee as an issue as that's fungible at least circa 2030 when these moves could realistically have a chance of even taking place. This is about who is going to be the #3 conference after the Big Ten and SEC.)

West Virginia is Charlie Brown and the ACC is Lucy with the football. WVU has the geographic fit, which is why a lot of fans want to see them in there, but that's really it. I think that the ACC would rather have pretty much every Big 12 school other than maybe BYU and Iowa State over WVU.

TCU? With Texas and OU out the door, TCU becomes a core school in the B12.

TCU has already demonstrated that they are willing to go against the grain when they joined the Big East. And if the ACC were going to have only one school in Texas (not named Texas) it would be TCU.

(04-18-2023 03:57 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  Like many on this board, I “doodle” conference realignment scenarios while on hold or just goofing off. Some of you are lying if you say that you don’t do the same LOL.

This question arose from one of those doodles, where the SEC, B10 and B12 had added all of the ACC programs sans Cuse and BC while Notre Dame stubbornly remained independent in football.

Thanks for the replies.

Yep!
My latest doodle has Louisville going to the SEC in exchange for South Carolina.
The SEC needs a hoops partner for Kentucky and the ACC needs a big stadium school for football.
I have then added Temple to the ACC for market in the DC-Philadelphia area and USF for market in the unique populated area of Central Florida (both Temple and USF are AAC schools and do not affect the Big 12).
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Temple, VT, UVa, Carolina, Wake, NCSU, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, GT, FSU, USF, Miami.

What you end up with is a perfectly balanced ACC, that hugs east coast states.

(04-19-2023 10:22 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  Of interest is that tonight on my way home, I listened to the "Cover 3" podcast on Spotify where the hosts (which includes Danny Kanell) were discussing realignment and such. During their discussions that actually discussed the idea that Cuse and BC could "stop playing big-time football" and instead choose to focus on basketball as part of the Big East, agreeing that it could occur.

On that note, I think a bunch of schools could choose to not participate in the future. I guess will find out over the next decade or so.

Good to see Kanell still out there. Maybe he skims these boards and skimmed this thread. It's going to be a discussion for a long time. You can't let UConn get away from you if you are Cuse', money aside. What good is that money if you are going to have one decent season every two decades? BC is a complete disaster as well.

(04-20-2023 05:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  Yep!
My latest doodle has Louisville going to the SEC in exchange for South Carolina.
The SEC needs a hoops partner for Kentucky and the ACC needs a big stadium school for football.
I have then added Temple to the ACC for market in the DC-Philadelphia area and USF for market in the unique populated area of Central Florida (both Temple and USF are AAC schools and do not affect the Big 12).
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Temple, VT, UVa, Carolina, Wake, NCSU, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, GT, FSU, USF, Miami.

What you end up with is a perfectly balanced ACC, that hugs east coast states.

My most probable doodle is still:

UNC Duke UVa GaTech to B1G
FSU Clemson VaTech Miami SEC

That gives you an ACC with:

NCSU WF Pitt Cuse BC UL

That's not enough to be a middle 2 conference. I think Yormark poaches Pitt NCSU and UL. WF BC Cuse have to go to the BE.

Those schools, especially WF would have to consider the American as well. PAC remains a M2 conference assuming they are still around. If SMU goes to the PAC 12...

AAC West: UNT, UTSA, Tulane, Rice, Memphis, Tulsa, UAB
AAC East: Temple, ECU, WF, Navy, USF, FAU, Charlotte

I don't think that's appealing to BC and Cuse or vice versa, but the American will still probably take them.

I wish they had never joined the ACC to begin with along with FSU, Miami, Pitt and Louisville.

(04-18-2023 07:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(04-18-2023 03:37 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Very doubtful. Even if the ACC loses half of its teams, it's still a strong league and ND's own experience shows that it takes a financial haircut for being independent (which it is willing to pay because it *institutionally* cares about independence).

At the same time, once again, I think a lot of fans are GREATLY overestimating the leverage of the Big 12 outside of being a tire fire last ditch resort for Pac-12 and ACC schools.

To me, the ACC is the most likely vessel to consolidate the best of who isn't in either the Big Ten or SEC into whatever will be the #3 power conference in the 2030s.

We see schools move west out of desperation, and east for profit and visibility.

This is a point most miss. American Sports, both professional and collegiate, are east coast biased. The further you go west the less the east coast media tends to report. West coast fans know east coast bias well.

The sports media hubs of the country are all located in the east. That’s why going east is more profitable than going west.

(04-20-2023 05:39 AM)ShakeNBake Wrote:  I wish they had never joined the ACC to begin with along with FSU, Miami, Pitt and Louisville.

It would be interesting to know what would have become of the ACC had those schools not joined. Starting with FSU in the early 90's. My guess is that more schools would have departed, and sooner than UMd did. I think it's safe to say that any past media deals would have been worth quite a bit less, had those schools not been added. And certainly the national prominence in football would have been extraordinarily diminished. And so I take that you would have a very basketball-first conference and added BE b-ball schools from the NE.

(04-19-2023 12:55 PM)esayem Wrote:  It’s not going to hurt that much compared to what the ACC makes now, which is essentially the top of “M” money (but it’s an old contract and the conference would make more if the deal was signed now with the same membership).

Right now, the major networks have proved there is enough room for a P2 and M2 as far as money is concerned. What happens to the Pac will be interesting. Streaming is on the horizon, which theoretically brings an unlimited amount of games.

Is the ACC at the top though? The Big 12 distributed $42.6M last year (SOURCE) which ranked 3rd compared to the ACC which distributed $36.1M (SOURCE) which ranked 4th.

Big 12 is getting an increase in its television contract despite OU/UT leaving but we may have to wait till 2025 to fully understand which league is making more money since I'm not sure what the Big 12 ramp is for their media distributions and how much the ACC Network will be distributing by then. Seems to me the ACC and Big 12 will figure to be neck and neck with CFP/March Madness distributions impacting who is ahead in any given year.

The Big 12 also has a potential opportunity to push ahead in 2031 depending on what the next TV contract will look like. It definitely feels like 3 revenue tiers are forming within the P5 with B1G/SEC at the top, B12/ACC in the middle, and whatever the PAC ends up signing trailing behind.

would be pretty ironic if a raided ACC left BC, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Miami + Wake (assuming that if this were to go down - UNC ends up in B1G along with Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia; NC State, Va Tech, Clemson, Florida State to the SEC) ended up yet again in a Frankenstein conference where ACC and BE merged

(04-20-2023 05:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(04-18-2023 03:57 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  Like many on this board, I “doodle” conference realignment scenarios while on hold or just goofing off. Some of you are lying if you say that you don’t do the same LOL.

This question arose from one of those doodles, where the SEC, B10 and B12 had added all of the ACC programs sans Cuse and BC while Notre Dame stubbornly remained independent in football.

Thanks for the replies.

Yep!
My latest doodle has Louisville going to the SEC in exchange for South Carolina.
The SEC needs a hoops partner for Kentucky and the ACC needs a big stadium school for football.
I have then added Temple to the ACC for market in the DC-Philadelphia area and USF for market in the unique populated area of Central Florida (both Temple and USF are AAC schools and do not affect the Big 12).
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Temple, VT, UVa, Carolina, Wake, NCSU, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, GT, FSU, USF, Miami.

What you end up with is a perfectly balanced ACC, that hugs east coast states.

FSU, Clemson, and Miami (for starters) will be hard "Nays" on this vote unless this somehow put the ACC into SEC/B1G $. And it won't. South Carolina would give a "no thanks" as well. But maybe this is just what you'd like to see vs reality.

USF would take more than it gives, unless you're suggesting a greatly reduced payout for the Bulls. They're not remotely a national brand, likely the #5 in FL at this point, and the ACC doesn't require this type of add for more Sunshine State market share of cable boxes. They will be a solid backfill with long-term potential upside, along with UCF - which is a bigger national and state draw at this point. We'll find out by 2031 if the future belongs to the B12 or the ACC for this very reason. Whichever conference gets those 2 schools likely wins. It's hard to imagine the ACC being a top tier conference (beyond football) if it finds itself locked out of FL altogether or going with a tertiary brand there.

(04-19-2023 10:22 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  Of interest is that tonight on my way home, I listened to the "Cover 3" podcast on Spotify where the hosts (which includes Danny Kanell) were discussing realignment and such. During their discussions that actually discussed the idea that Cuse and BC could "stop playing big-time football" and instead choose to focus on basketball as part of the Big East, agreeing that it could occur.

On that note, I think a bunch of schools could choose to not participate in the future. I guess will find out over the next decade or so.

I wouldn't be surprised by this result. The money simply isn't in it for the likes of Boston College and Syracuse to compete with the likes of Michigan and LSU.

I would say that these smaller schools are already in a no-win situation, both financially and athletically. Fast forward to 2035 and watch UNC, Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech all bolt for greener pastures while the leftovers continue to see their revenues diminish relative to their peer schools.

At some point the smart people who lead these institutions will realize that it's a shell game. Once they see that light, putting their resources behind their basketball programs where they can compete nationally will make a lot of sense.

On another note, as someone said earlier in this thread, I wouldn't be surprised if the Big East shunned Boston College. A founding member of the Big East and they were a party to a move that tried to kill the league.

(04-20-2023 09:49 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised by this result. The money simply isn't in it for the likes of Boston College and Syracuse to compete with the likes of Michigan and LSU.

I would say that these smaller schools are already in a no-win situation, both financially and athletically. Fast forward to 2035 and watch UNC, Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech all bolt for greener pastures while the leftovers continue to see their revenues diminish relative to their peer schools.

At some point the smart people who lead these institutions will realize that it's a shell game. Once they see that light, putting their resources behind their basketball programs where they can compete nationally will make a lot of sense.

On another note, as someone said earlier in this thread, I wouldn't be surprised if the Big East shunned Boston College. A founding member of the Big East and they were a party to a move that tried to kill the league.

I think Georgia Tech is at risk of being left behind as well.

(04-20-2023 09:55 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 09:49 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  I would say that these smaller schools are already in a no-win situation, both financially and athletically. Fast forward to 2035 and watch UNC, Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech all bolt for greener pastures while the leftovers continue to see their revenues diminish relative to their peer schools.

I think Georgia Tech is at risk of being left behind as well.

I agree. I just threw out the first four contenders from the ACC that I thought of.

(04-20-2023 10:03 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 09:55 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 09:49 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  I would say that these smaller schools are already in a no-win situation, both financially and athletically. Fast forward to 2035 and watch UNC, Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech all bolt for greener pastures while the leftovers continue to see their revenues diminish relative to their peer schools.

I think Georgia Tech is at risk of being left behind as well.

I agree. I just threw out the first four contenders from the ACC that I thought of.

This is why every school in the ACC should deeply consider an offer to join the SEC/B1G/B12 if it's put on the table in the next few years. Waiting past 2031 does not look like a good strategy, sitting here in 2023.

(04-20-2023 05:39 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(04-20-2023 05:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  Yep!
My latest doodle has Louisville going to the SEC in exchange for South Carolina.
The SEC needs a hoops partner for Kentucky and the ACC needs a big stadium school for football.
I have then added Temple to the ACC for market in the DC-Philadelphia area and USF for market in the unique populated area of Central Florida (both Temple and USF are AAC schools and do not affect the Big 12).
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Temple, VT, UVa, Carolina, Wake, NCSU, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, GT, FSU, USF, Miami.

What you end up with is a perfectly balanced ACC, that hugs east coast states.

My most probable doodle is still:

UNC Duke UVa GaTech to B1G
FSU Clemson VaTech Miami SEC

That gives you an ACC with:

NCSU WF Pitt Cuse BC UL

That's not enough to be a middle 2 conference. I think Yormark poaches Pitt NCSU and UL. WF BC Cuse have to go to the BE.

Those schools, especially WF would have to consider the American as well. PAC remains a M2 conference assuming they are still around. If SMU goes to the PAC 12...

AAC West: UNT, UTSA, Tulane, Rice, Memphis, Tulsa, UAB
AAC East: Temple, ECU, WF, Navy, USF, FAU, Charlotte

I don't think that's appealing to BC and Cuse or vice versa, but the American will still probably take them.

Regarding the Big East, that could go one of two ways:

1) Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest could choose to go down the "UConn" route (non-football sports to the Big East, while attempting to maximize football revenues as an Independent, which Syracuse and Boston College have historical understandings with). With UConn, they could have a four-team Independent scheduling alliance that could still likely get 1 or 2 OOC games with regional/geographic rivals, along with any number of additional P buy or home/home games, filled out with G5 programs.

2) These three attempt to salvage the ACC brand/name by inviting UConn (#4), as well as USF (#5), Memphis (#6), Temple (#7), ECU (#8) and probably a few others (just to keep revenues up for a CCG). For a Syracuse, just like UConn before it, how much basketball prestige is it willing to sacrifice to maintain football? Every school has its own threshold.

My guess would be that, under this scenario, that BC, Syracuse and Wake would slide over to the Big East (and not vice versa); they would still have considerable control with scheduling in football, and remain in a true power hoops conference.

(04-20-2023 09:11 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(04-19-2023 12:55 PM)esayem Wrote:  It’s not going to hurt that much compared to what the ACC makes now, which is essentially the top of “M” money (but it’s an old contract and the conference would make more if the deal was signed now with the same membership).

Right now, the major networks have proved there is enough room for a P2 and M2 as far as money is concerned. What happens to the Pac will be interesting. Streaming is on the horizon, which theoretically brings an unlimited amount of games.

Is the ACC at the top though? The Big 12 distributed $42.6M last year (SOURCE) which ranked 3rd compared to the ACC which distributed $36.1M (SOURCE) which ranked 4th.

Big 12 is getting an increase in its television contract despite OU/UT leaving but we may have to wait till 2025 to fully understand which league is making more money since I'm not sure what the Big 12 ramp is for their media distributions and how much the ACC Network will be distributing by then. Seems to me the ACC and Big 12 will figure to be neck and neck with CFP/March Madness distributions impacting who is ahead in any given year.

The Big 12 also has a potential opportunity to push ahead in 2031 depending on what the next TV contract will look like. It definitely feels like 3 revenue tiers are forming within the P5 with B1G/SEC at the top, B12/ACC in the middle, and whatever the PAC ends up signing trailing behind.

There are plenty of in-depth analysis of this on the ACC board if you choose to take a look. The ACCN distributions and incremental increases push the ACC ahead.

The Big XII also has potential to fall off the map in 2031 while the ACC has the luxury to negotiate under contract.

The Big East could go to 20

E: BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, temple, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Nova, gtown

W: DePaul, Marquette, Butler, Xavier, CU, St Louis, Wake Forest, SMU, Tulane, Rice

Football only Army, Navy, AFA

(04-20-2023 10:15 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Regarding the Big East, that could go one of two ways:

1) Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest could choose to go down the "UConn" route (non-football sports to the Big East, while attempting to maximize football revenues as an Independent, which Syracuse and Boston College have historical understandings with). With UConn, they could have a four-team Independent scheduling alliance that could still likely get 1 or 2 OOC games with regional/geographic rivals, along with any number of additional P buy or home/home games, filled out with G5 programs.

2) These three attempt to salvage the ACC brand/name by inviting UConn (#4), as well as USF (#5), Memphis (#6), Temple (#7), ECU (#8) and probably a few others (just to keep revenues up for a CCG). For a Syracuse, just like UConn before it, how much basketball prestige is it willing to sacrifice to maintain football? Every school has its own threshold.

My guess would be that, under this scenario, that BC, Syracuse and Wake would slide over to the Big East (and not vice versa); they would still have considerable control with scheduling in football, and remain in a true power hoops conference.

Another thing to consider as an aside to Scenario #1&2, is a mid major model with some FCS call ups. Or, if they can poach Villanova while calling up schools like Delaware. Get an FBS League with:

UConn, UMass, Cuse, BC, Villanova, Delaware, Stonybrook, WF. Would Buffalo go as well? Would have to be an all-sports league with Colonial Athletic call ups. Liberty could spearhead the conference as well.

Just don't think incumbent teams would leave the AAC for that. All they need really is Temple, Navy and/or Army, and the Colonial teams, aside from perhaps Delaware, would not be needed.

(04-20-2023 10:39 AM)esayem Wrote:  There are plenty of in-depth analysis of this on the ACC board if you choose to take a look. The ACCN distributions and incremental increases push the ACC ahead.

The Big XII also has potential to fall off the map in 2031 while the ACC has the luxury to negotiate under contract.

Great, find me one