(03-23-2023 03:01 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 01:35 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  ....
Looking long-term, there isn't a single school in the PAC that the Big12 should or would pass on. Not even WSU and OSU.

This. The B12 will take any PAC school that sends them a post card.

Keith Jackson's alma mater won't drop to G5.

I think they'd take most Pac schools as a standalone, but they might want a few partners for OSU and WSU.

(03-23-2023 12:40 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  If one seeks to look at Research and Development rankings of major universities, I prefer data from sources such as National Science Foundation. This is U.S. government information.

The U.S. News & World Report controversial college rankings are driven by self-reporting content, and deemed by much of academia as being amateurish and flawed.

NSF Research & Development rankings for 2021. 2022 figures have not been published quite yet.

https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/profiles/site?...ce&ds=herd

PAC 12 R & D rankings. The PAC12 looks very good overall. Four can claim top ten status. Of course UCLA and USCw will be leaving the PAC12.

California (San Francisco) 2; Berkeley Campus 32

Washington 5

UCLA 6

Stanford 9

Southern California 28

Arizona 36

Arizona State 42

Utah 47

Colorado (Medical Center) 49; Boulder Campus 52

Oregon (Health & Science Centers U.) 60

Washington State 78

Oregon State 94

*Note: This is R&D content. Matters pertaining to admissions standards, retention & graduation rates, student-faculty ratios, library holdings, etc., are not inclusive. Medical and Veterinary Medicine account for a high portion of R&D funds. Engineering and related also garner a nice share of R&D support.

Ok I will bite as I have heard folks talk about University Presidents focus on research dollars. So here is the breakdown solely on R&D expenditures. Please note I have not seen R&D expenditures highlighted on a schools Wikipedia like R1 or AAU typically are.

The Pac-12

5 Washington, AAU, R1
8 Stanford, AAU, R1
32 Cal, AAU, R1
36 Arizona, AAU, R1
42 Arizona State, R1
47 Utah, AAU, R1
52 Colorado, AAU, R1
78 Washington State, R1
94 Oregon State, R1
149 Oregon, AAU, R1

The Big 12

51 Cincinnati, R1
72 Kansas, AAU, R1
77 Iowa State, R1
112 UCF, R1
120 Kansas State, R1
121 Houston, R1
125 West Virginia, R1
126 Oklahoma State, R1
127 Texas Tech, R1
207 Baylor, R1
308 TCU, R2
Not ranked-BYU, R2

The ACC
​
11 Duke, AAU, R1
13 North Carolina, AAU, R1
18 Pittsburgh, AAU, R1
20 Georgia Tech, AAU, R1
48 Virginia, AAU, R1
53 North Carolina State, R1
54 Virginia Tech, R1
75 Miami, R1
83 Florida State, R1
102 Wake Forest, R2
107 Clemson, R1
124 Louisville, R1
144 Syracuse, R1
185 Boston College, R1


The Big 10

3 Michigan, AAU, R1
6 UCLA, AAU, R1
8 Wisconsin, AAU, R1
12 Ohio State, AAU, R1
17 Maryland, AAU, R1
22 Minnesota, AAU, R1
26 Penn State, AAU, R1
28 USC, AAU, R1
30 Northwestern, AAU, R1
37 Illinois, AAU, R1
39 Michigan State, AAU, R1
40 Indiana, AAU, R1
41 Purdue, AAU, R1
45 Rutgers, AAU, R1
50 Iowa, AAU, R1
87 Nebraska, R1

The SEC

16 Texas A&M, AAU, R1
24 Vanderbilt, AAU, R1
27 Florida, AAU, R1
35 Texas, AAU, R1
57 Georgia, R1
64 Kentucky, R1
71 Missouri, AAU, R1
74 Oklahoma, R1
85 Tennessee, R1
91 LSU, R1
97 Mississippi State, R1
100 Auburn, R
113 South Carolina, R1
140 Arkansas, R1
150 Alabama, R1
158 Ole Miss, R1

Independents for football

88 UConn, R1
106 Notre Dame, R1
115 UMass, R1
280 Army

American

44 UAB, R1
68 South Florida, R1
90 Temple, R1
117 Rice, AAU, R1
119 Tulane, AAU, R1
131 Wichita State, R2
147 UTSA, R1
174 North Texas, R1
181 Memphis, R1
190 Florida Atlantic, R2
199 Charlotte, R2
200 East Carolina, R2
221 SMU, R2
300 Tulsa, R2
338 Navy

C-USA

105 FIU, R1
163 UTEP, R1
161New Mexico State, R2
246 Louisiana Tech, R2
270 Middle Tennessee State, R2
283 Kennesaw State, R2
326 Sam Houston State, R2
376 Western Kentucky
654 Liberty
855 Jacksonville State

MAC

65 Buffalo, AAU, R1
196 Toledo, R2
206 Ohio U., R1
205 Kent State, R1
253 Western Michigan, R2
254 Northern Illinois, R2
255 Miami, Ohio, R2
272 Central Michigan, R2
285 Bowling Green, R2
294 Akron, R2
353 Ball State, R2
373 Eastern Michigan, R2

MWC

61 Colorado State, R1
81 New Mexico, R1
84 Utah State, R1
99 Hawaii, only football, R1
136 Nevada, R1
164 San Diego State, R2
168 UNLV, R1
170 Wyoming, R2
189 San Jose State
212 Boise State, R2
237 Air Force

Sun Belt

118 Georgia State, R1
135 Louisiana Lafayette, R1
176 Texas State, R2
180 Southern Miss, R1
188 Old Dominion, R1
209 South Alabama, R2
227 Georgia Southern, R2
264 Marshall, R2
314 James Madison, R2
358 Arkansas State, R2
429 Appalachian State
527 Coastal Carolina
583 Troy

Not ranked- Louisiana Monroe

The Pac-12 wants AAU and definitely R1 research with a great TV market . Rankings via R&D expenditures (Washington is their best school ranked #5 & Oregon is their worst ranked at #149) https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/profiles/site?...ce&ds=herd

AAU/R1 & TV markets:
65 Buffalo, AAU, R1, #54 Buffalo (632K TV homes)
117 Rice, AAU, R1, #7 Houston (2.6M TV homes)
119 Tulane, AAU, R1 #50 New Orleans (687K TV homes)

R1 & TV markets:
44 UAB, R1, #45 Birmingham (766K TV homes)
68 South Florida, R1, #13 Tampa Bay (2M TV homes)
81 New Mexico, R1, #49 Albuquerque (720K TV homes)
88 UConn, R1, #34 Hartford (1M TV homes)
90 Temple, R1, #4 Philadelphia (3.1M TV homes)
118 Georgia State, R1 #6 Atlanta (2.6M TV homes)
147 UTSA, R1, #31 San Antonio (1M TV Homes)
164 San Diego State, R2,R1 Candidate, #30 (1.1M TV homes)
168 UNLV, R1, #40 (870K TV homes)
174 North Texas, R1, #5 (3M TV homes)
181 Memphis, R1, #52 (644K TV homes)
221 SMU, R2, R1 Candidate, #5 (3M TV homes)


Options that fall in academic ranking - This just might the reason for NO TV Deal & Expansion
44 UAB, R1, #45 Birmingham (766K TV homes)
65 Buffalo, AAU, R1, #54 Buffalo (632K TV homes)
68 South Florida, R1, #13 Tampa Bay (2M TV homes)
81 New Mexico, R1, #49 Albuquerque (720K TV homes)
88 UConn, R1, #34 Hartford (1M TV homes)
90 Temple, R1, #4 Philadelphia (3.1M TV homes)
117 Rice, AAU, R1, #7 Houston (2.6M TV homes)
119 Tulane, AAU, R1 #50 New Orleans (687K TV homes)
147 UTSA, R1, #31 San Antonio (1M TV Homes)
164 San Diego State, R2,R1 Candidate, #30 (1.1M TV homes) [Would be the worst academic school in the PAC12]
168 UNLV, R1, #40 (870K TV homes) [Would be the worst academic school in the PAC12]
174 North Texas, R1, #5 (3M TV homes) [Would be the worst academic school in the PAC12]
221 SMU, R2, R1 Candidate, #5 (3M TV homes) [Would be the worst academic school in the PAC12]

(03-23-2023 11:20 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-22-2023 11:16 PM)cottager Wrote:  Is UAB really a significantly better school than the flagship? That seems very strange to me if true, but I admit I’m not well versed in these rankings.

UAB would fit in with the ACC like a glove.

UAB has a very reputable medical school. ‘Bama in Tuscaloosa doesn’t have a medical school. Medical research grants do impact highly.

(03-23-2023 03:06 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 02:03 PM)bearcat1970 Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 11:20 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-22-2023 11:16 PM)cottager Wrote:  Is UAB really a significantly better school than the flagship? That seems very strange to me if true, but I admit I’m not well versed in these rankings.

UAB would fit in with the ACC like a glove.

Yeah , like OJ’s bloody glove

Looks like the Cincy fan is jealous of UAB.

Me (if I was an ECU or UAB fan)

Jon Wilner: Would SMU create media value? “I think it probably helps,” sports media analyst says

Patrick Crakes negotiated media deals during his tenure as Fox Sports’ senior vice president for programming, research and content strategy. Crakes now runs his own firm, Crakes Media. He isn’t affiliated with the Pac-12 or SMU but remains well-versed in the college sports landscape.

We have separated the issue of SMU’s valuation into three sections. (Fit/calculation/Value)

The fit

First, the Pac-12 must determine whether SMU fits institutionally. The Mustangs appear suitable on numerous levels:

— SMU is No. 72 in the latest U.S. News and World Report rankings and is an R2 research school, the second-highest categorization. (It is attempting to gain R1 status.)

— It has a significant endowment ($2 billion) and wealthy donor base.

— And despite the name, the school is not controlled by the United Methodist Church.

As a private school, SMU would have unfettered ability to plow resources into the football program.

And with a wealthy donor base that could be energized by the move into the Power Five, the school’s potential to generate an effective NIL collective — an essential piece to recruiting — would be significant.

As one source told the Hotline: “Besides USC and Oregon, nobody in the conference could beat SMU’s resources.”

The calculation

In determining a school’s media value, the Pac-12 and its potential broadcast partners would assess the power of a school’s football brand and its placement within the local media market.

“(Networks) value what their most important customers want. And SMU is worth something going into a major conference.”

Streaming services would estimate the number of viewers willing to pay a monthly fee to watch a particular team. But for legacy media companies like Fox and ESPN, the process seemingly is more complex. Their calculation includes retransmission fees, which are payments made by the affiliate stations to the parent network in exchange for the broadcast rights in the local market.

Let’s say USC is hosting Notre Dame on broadcast television. The ABC affiliate in Los Angeles is KABC. Any USC fan with Spectrum would watch the game on KABC through the Spectrum pay-TV bundle.

“At least 80 percent of all viewing to broadcast networks occurs inside the pay-TV bundle,” Crakes said. “So for example, the pay-TV distributor (Spectrum) pays KABC to put the station inside the bundle, and then KABC pays the network a percentage of that to compensate the network for acquiring top-level content.

“SMU would probably generate a case for some kind of increases to current retransmission fees in Texas. But how much?”

As a member of the Pac-12, the Mustangs would be competing in Texas with the SEC (Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, which has a strong following in the state) and the Big 12 (TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech).

According to SMU, the school has 114,000 living alumni worldwide, with about 60,000 across in Texas and 44,000 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. (By comparison, TCU has 99,000 living alumni.)

“How much is it worth to a pay-TV distributor to make SMU part of the Pac-12? It’s probably worth something,” Crakes said. “The Pac-12 gains a market, but it’s third in the pecking order with the SEC and then the Big 12.

“It comes down to whether they think SMU is accretive. You’re gaining a time zone. You’d get six games in the Central Time Zone. It’s not strategically earthshaking, but it’s incremental.

“Adding SMU is as fine an idea as any I’ve heard.”

The value

Every valuation calculation ends with the same question: Is the school accretive? In other words, would the addition of SMU create more media value for the Pac-12’s remaining schools?

Imagine the conference had the option to sign a six-year media rights contract for $300 million annually, or $30 million per school per year, without SMU.

For SMU to add $3 million to each school’s annual intake, the Mustangs would require a valuation of $33 million annually, or $198 million over the course of the contract cycle. (Eleven schools at $3 million each for six years, if the Mustangs received a full share.)

Is the appetite for SMU football in Texas enough to convince ESPN, for example, to commit to $33 million annually?

Would the Central Time Zone kickoffs help the broader value of Pac-12 inventory?

Would the SMU generate enough cable subscriptions and retransmission fees across the Lone Star State to justify the outlay?

“Does SMU create value for the Pac-12? I think it probably helps,” Crakes said.

At $3 million per school per year?

“I’m not sure about that,” he added. “Being conservatively optimistic, maybe adding SMU is worth $1.5 million (annually) for the other schools. That’s $99 million (over six years).

“Then in the next deal, they become an incremental chip on the table.”

The next deal.

That’s a critical point in the Pac-12’s expansion strategy. The conference must consider SMU’s value when the next media rights cycle comes to an end (in the late 2020s or early 2030s), and it starts the negotiating process all over again.

“They need to get better in football,” Crakes said.

“But if you end up doing something like merging with the ACC down the road, you have the Dallas market, which is nice.”

Link
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03/23/p...lyst-says/

Quote:Imagine the conference had the option to sign a six-year media rights contract for $300 million annually, or $30 million per school per year, without SMU.

For SMU to add $3 million to each school’s annual intake, the Mustangs would require a valuation of $33 million annually, or $198 million over the course of the contract cycle. (Eleven schools at $3 million each for six years, if the Mustangs received a full share.)

Is the appetite for SMU football in Texas enough to convince ESPN, for example, to commit to $33 million annually?

Um... SMU also has to possess the value to pay themselves a full share if that's what they receive (in the above scenario that's a little optimistic $ wise for the PAC contract). $30M to increase the other ten teams payouts by $3M per, and $33M for their own payout... $30M + $33M = $63M value total.

If SMU was worth that, they would truly deserve a full share, but sounds a little bit far-fetched they are that valuable (B12 or PAC would have already added them a while ago if they were). This is the same reason people are suggesting partial shares for UW/UO should they join the B1G... they are worth roughly what an average B1G school is (e.g., Iowa), but would add nothing to anyone else's payout if they received a full share.

(03-23-2023 10:52 PM)gwelymernans Wrote:  

Quote:Imagine the conference had the option to sign a six-year media rights contract for $300 million annually, or $30 million per school per year, without SMU.

For SMU to add $3 million to each school’s annual intake, the Mustangs would require a valuation of $33 million annually, or $198 million over the course of the contract cycle. (Eleven schools at $3 million each for six years, if the Mustangs received a full share.)

Is the appetite for SMU football in Texas enough to convince ESPN, for example, to commit to $33 million annually?

Um... SMU also has to possess the value to pay themselves a full share if that's what they receive (in the above scenario that's a little optimistic $ wise for the PAC contract). $30M to increase the other ten teams payouts by $3M per, and $33M for their own payout... $30M + $33M = $63M value total.

If SMU was worth that, they would truly deserve a full share, but sounds a little bit far-fetched they are that valuable (B12 or PAC would have already added them a while ago if they were). This is the same reason people are suggesting partial shares for UW/UO should they join the B1G... they are worth roughly what an average B1G school is (e.g., Iowa), but would add nothing to anyone else's payout if they received a full share.

Yes and even for $1.5 million increase, SMU’s value has to be $1.5x10 + $31.5 = $46.5 million, which seems high.

And if the Pac’s value is only $250 million or $25 million per school, then the SMU’s value has to be $1.5x10+$26.5=$41.5 million. Maybe that figure is possible if Pac signs with only ESPN. With majority contents on streaming, I don’t think SMU’s value would be near $40 million.

(03-22-2023 09:48 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  If the Pac can't close on a TV deal what happens?

Scenario 1 (Big, Big12, & MWC absorb)

Big12 - Takes Four Corner Schools (16 League Membership)

70 Colorado, AAU, R1
108 Arizona, AAU, R1
156 Arizona State, R1
167 Utah, AAU, R1
203 Cincinnati, R1
263 Iowa State, R1
304 Kansas, AAU, R1
372 Baylor, R1
413 UCF, R1
432 Houston, R1
472 Texas Tech, R1
507 Kansas State, R1
537 West Virginia, R1
633 Oklahoma State, R1
710 BYU, R2
1394 TCU, R2

Big- takes 4 (20-team league.)

3 Stanford, AAU, R1
4 Cal, AAU, R1
6 Washington, AAU, R1
14 UCLA, AAU, R1
19 Michigan, AAU, R1
24 Northwestern, AAU, R1
55 Ohio State, AAU, R1
57 Maryland, AAU, R1
57 Minnesota, AAU, R1
63 Wisconsin, AAU, R1
74 Illinois, AAU, R1
80 USC, AAU, R1
84 Penn State, AAU, R1
116 Michigan State, AAU, R1
140 Purdue, AAU, R1
143 Rutgers, AAU, R1
152 Indiana, AAU, R1
180 Iowa, AAU, R1
253 Oregon, AAU, R1
409 Nebraska, R1

MWC rebrands into PAC (to keep MBB Tourney credits)

276 Colorado State, R1
299 Oregon State, R1
311 New Mexico, R1
328 Washington State, R1
394 Hawaii, only football, R1
593 San Diego State, R2
722 Utah State, R1
782 Nevada, R1
794 Wyoming, R2
871 UNLV, R1
907 Fresno State, R2
1399 Boise State, R2
1452 San Jose State
Not ranked- Air Force, but they're smart enough to beat the other two! They can't be ranked.


Scenario 2

Big only takes 2 Pac teams from Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford. The other two go Independent for Football.

Liked "Scenario 1"...call this round of realignment...

MWC rebrands into PAC (to keep MBB Tourney credits)...
Who is going to merge with whom???
PAC 2 (OR St/WA St) invites MWC 12 for PAC 14 under PAC administration...
MWC 12 invites PAC 2 (OR St/WA St) for PAC 14 under MWC administration...

(03-23-2023 05:17 PM)bearcat1970 Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 03:06 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 02:03 PM)bearcat1970 Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 11:20 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-22-2023 11:16 PM)cottager Wrote:  Is UAB really a significantly better school than the flagship? That seems very strange to me if true, but I admit I’m not well versed in these rankings.

UAB would fit in with the ACC like a glove.

Yeah , like OJ’s bloody glove

Looks like the Cincy fan is jealous of UAB.

Me (if I was an ECU or UAB fan)