Quote:In a recent article, Knoxville News Sentinel columnist John Adams argues the SEC should attempt to trade Missouri back to the Big 12 for West Virginia:
The SEC could send Missouri back to the Big 12 and take West Virginia in return. The SEC could even send a few hundred thousand dollars the Big 12’s way just to make the deal more appealing.
(04-21-2022 11:13 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Miami and FSU are the most valuable programs, followed by Clemson. PERIOD.
SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE
Most valuable to the ACC - not to the SEC.
sec brand blankets south ...
south florida sticks out like a sore thumb ...
charm resistant ...
and only UM reliably delivers exotic market ...
also, as realignment expert frank the tank has keenly observed...
Miami can go b1g without fsu ...
not the other way around ...
TRY AS THEY MIGHT
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2023 10:47 AM by green.)
(03-10-2023 11:43 PM)random asian guy Wrote: In terms of the revenue gap, the ACC is already doomed. I did some calculation in anothee thread and the B1G schools would receive $30+ million more than the ACC schools during the seven year period from 2023/24-2029/30. The $30+ million difference is per year so over the seven years, a B10 school gets at least $210M more than an ACC school. The revenue gap between the BIG and the ACC will be bigger than the gap between the ACC and the AAC.
Does that mean the ACC is going to lose many member schools in 2035?
No, I don’t think so. The threshold for the P2 entry became so high now that only very few schools would be able to increase their payouts. ND would qualify for sure. Other than ND, there is no sure bet. The ACC may lose one or two schools in additon to ND, but I don’t see the ACC would lose more than two schools unless the P2 conferences adopt some type of unequal revenue sharing. But why would the P2 conferences do that? Would the ACC adopt the unequal revenue sharing so that we can add the AAC schools?
This is assuming the ACC maintains its position as #3 conference and that’s why I keep saying the ACC should expand not only for money but as a defensive strategy. The Pac had multiple chances of raiding the B12. They never did and see what’s happening now.
^^^ THIS ^^^
I could see Florida State (but not a given), and maybe under some scheme include Clemson and UNC (I'm not sold on Miami). Dreams of the SEC absorbing 8 or more ACC schools are just that, IMHO. I don't think the money is there. Same for the Big Ten - maybe a couple of schools at most (or maybe zero).
The sooner everyone gets off this "reach for the brass ring" mentality and gets back to "growing the ACC brand", the better. As long as they don't wait too late -- the Big XII is hot on your heels, ACC!
Road blocks aside, UNC and FSU are both coveted by the SEC for various reasons at the point.
The SEC chose Missouri over FSU in 2011. Yes it was more than 10 years ago but I don’t know whether FSU brand has significantly improved since then. More importantly, the theshold for the SEC entry is much higher now compared to 2011. Also the SEC has 16 members, ideal for 3-6-6.
I do think FSU has a better chance at the B1G.
They took Missouri because the contract with ESPN required that they add 2 new states to open up their existing contract for renegotiation. VT was considered but said not at this time. Keep in mind if VT left, it may have had a destabilizing influence on the remainder of the ACC.
I am sure ESPN would reopen the contract anwyay if FSU is valuable enough. Florida is already covered and FSU wasn’t and isn’t like University of Texas. I don’t think the SEC covet FSU. By the same logic, I don’t think Clemson has any chance at the SEC.
On the other hand, the B1G may be interested in getting a team or two in Florida. In my view, their entry threshold is a bit lower than the SEC’s and the BIG already showed the willingness to add remote schools in good media market.
I suspect that FSU signed the GoR because they knew they won’t get an invitation from the SEC.
Now FSU is mentioned as a potential candidate for the BIG, FSU’s admin started openly discussing the potential exit.
By the way, I agree that VT had a better chance to join the SEC in 2011. VT fans don’t complain as much though.
Quote:In a recent article, Knoxville News Sentinel columnist John Adams argues the SEC should attempt to trade Missouri back to the Big 12 for West Virginia:
The SEC could send Missouri back to the Big 12 and take West Virginia in return. The SEC could even send a few hundred thousand dollars the Big 12’s way just to make the deal more appealing.
(04-21-2022 11:13 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Miami and FSU are the most valuable programs, followed by Clemson. PERIOD.
SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE
Most valuable to the ACC - not to the SEC.
sec brand blankets south ...
south florida sticks out like a sore thumb ...
charm resistant ...
and only UM reliably delivers exotic market ...
also, as realignment expert frank the tank has keenly observed...
Miami can go b1g without fsu ...
not the other way around ...
TRY AS THEY MIGHT
My guess is that Miami will stay in the ACC regardless, while it's possible that ESPN shifts some schools around and FSU could end up in the SEC.
(03-11-2023 11:47 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: They took Missouri because the contract with ESPN required that they add 2 new states to open up their existing contract for renegotiation. VT was considered but said not at this time. Keep in mind if VT left, it may have had a destabilizing influence on the remainder of the ACC.
Don't know who Jeff Cobb is but he's full of it! West Virginia applied twice to the SEC, the first time in 1990-1, and their application was tabled because they didn't offer the required sports. The second time in 2011 they were sent a prospectus of what had to be done before they could be considered. Neither time did they even stand a vote. In 2011 Virginia Tech was being considered, but as a part of a larger joint move to 16 by both the SEC and ACC where N.C. State was to be a part of Mickey's Backyard Picnic complete with sandwich swapping. It blew up and as with all failed plots, never existed. The moves had they happened would easily have made the ACC an instant rival of the SEC both competitively and financially and the failure of this helped Maryland to decide to bolt to the Big 10 because they were in need of a bigger payday anywhere they could find one at the time. This is what you may politely call, referring to the errant tweet, more "Mountain Mythology."
(03-11-2023 11:47 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: They took Missouri because the contract with ESPN required that they add 2 new states to open up their existing contract for renegotiation. VT was considered but said not at this time. Keep in mind if VT left, it may have had a destabilizing influence on the remainder of the ACC.
Don't know who Jeff Cobb is but he's full of it! West Virginia applied twice to the SEC, the first time in 1990-1, and their application was tabled because they didn't offer the required sports. The second time in 2011 they were sent a prospectus of what had to be done before they could be considered. Neither time did they even stand a vote. In 2011 Virginia Tech was being considered, but as a part of a larger joint move to 16 by both the SEC and ACC where N.C. State was to be a part of Mickey's Backyard Picnic complete with sandwich swapping. It blew up and as with all failed plots, never existed. The moves had they happened would easily have made the ACC an instant rival of the SEC both competitively and financially and the failure of this helped Maryland to decide to bolt to the Big 10 because they were in need of a bigger payday anywhere they could find one at the time. This is what you may politely call, referring to the errant tweet, more "Mountain Mythology."
More hooey. I know what the SEC presidents did and considered. I don't know why WVU was mentioned and then repeated by another reporter and the reporters don't know the veracity of much of what they report, somebody likely just told them, or he needed to fill space with something the public would read. Missouri had been in the works for nearly 2 years. WVU wasn't a part of it. When the deal blew up the only other school which was considered was Oklahoma, but Boren insisted on Oklahoma State as well and that was a no go. Missouri had second thoughts when the deal fell through so A&M which had announced simply waited for the SEC to make a formal announcement about Missouri before the celebrations were replanned. The variance in all reporting on realignment vs what actually happened is massive. The press is used for spin and gloss when events happen, and obfuscation when they don't. Some of that is done for legal reasons, meaning avoidance of liability if something failed, and legal reasons if it happens to avoid details which might cost some party some liability or money.
How did we know about Oklahoma and Texas in 2021? A booster's mouth and a local reporter in Houston. That reporter for the Chronicle heard, tried to verify, hit a nerve and reported it as a rumor. That may be the most accurate reporting on an unannounced deal to date.
And one other point. Most realignment committees, since they are made up of university presidents, don't care if a party applying, or one rejected spin their story to save face. They all understand the position the other side in in and think of all of the different stories as a kind grace offered to men and women who must tell unwanted news to the home base. So, variance to them is water off of a duck's back. Expected.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2023 03:17 PM by JRsec.)
It won't be a P2 conference. And it will look different. Not sure if that equals "doomed".
If the conference is dissolved like Nole-stradamus predicts, then I think “doomed” describes it well. With that in mind, to block the dissolving, it might be a good idea to push expansion, someone brought up SMU and Tulane as a pair, that is if the APAC is dooooomed.
I think it's more logical to find the best home for everyone that you can. ie Clemson/FSU to the SEC, UVA/UNC to the B1G, Louisville, Pitt, Miami, Va Tech, NC state, etc to the Big 12.
I think that will be the end result regardless. Something close to that but maybe not exactly. Whether it's in 2024 or 2036, at somepoint.
(03-11-2023 09:25 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: If doom comes. I would like to see more than half of the ACC land in a good spot in the P2 and everybody else either in the BigXII or something that is satisfactory.
Hopeful - SU, UNC, UVA, Duke to the B1G. FSU, Clem, UM, GT, VT, NCSU to the SEC. UL and Pitt to the Big12. Wake and BC to the BE/Indy.
Likely - UVA, Duke, UNC to the B1G. FSU, UM, Clem, VT to the SEC. Possibly enough left to stick together and backfill.
Pitt is AAU and Syracuse is not.
So Hopeful should be Pitt, UNC, UVA and Duke go to B1G. Syracuse and Louisville go to Big12. Syracuse will be West Virginia's traveling partner. Louisville will Cincinnati's traveling partner. Also I think B1G will take Georgia Tech (another AAU institution) instead of Duke.
The year is 2034. College football players are paid and aren't required to be currently enrolled in the university they represent. Players constantly move from one school to the next looking for some combination of higher pay, better sponsorship deals, or more playing time. Streaming has finally overtaken cable as the technology has greatly improved and the last of the baby boomers are retired and on fixed incomes. Cable companies are either on their last leg, merged with streaming services but mostly just gone out of business. ESPN has been sold by Disney, reduced to 3 channels and his been bleeding cash despite massive cuts. Fox, CBS, ABC and NBC aren't doing much better. Viewership for football in general and college football in particular has been stagnant or declining since 2027 as other programing and a general lack of interest seems to the the norm as a few college sponsored teams dominate year after year.
Maybe they're all doomed. No one can predict the future.
(03-11-2023 03:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: ^^^ THIS ^^^
I could see Florida State (but not a given), and maybe under some scheme include Clemson and UNC (I'm not sold on Miami). Dreams of the SEC absorbing 8 or more ACC schools are just that, IMHO. I don't think the money is there. Same for the Big Ten - maybe a couple of schools at most (or maybe zero).
The sooner everyone gets off this "reach for the brass ring" mentality and gets back to "growing the ACC brand", the better. As long as they don't wait too late -- the Big XII is hot on your heels, ACC!
Road blocks aside, UNC and FSU are both coveted by the SEC for various reasons at the point.
The SEC chose Missouri over FSU in 2011. Yes it was more than 10 years ago but I don’t know whether FSU brand has significantly improved since then. More importantly, the theshold for the SEC entry is much higher now compared to 2011. Also the SEC has 16 members, ideal for 3-6-6.
I do think FSU has a better chance at the B1G.
They took Missouri because the contract with ESPN required that they add 2 new states to open up their existing contract for renegotiation. VT was considered but said not at this time. Keep in mind if VT left, it may have had a destabilizing influence on the remainder of the ACC.
I am sure ESPN would reopen the contract anwyay if FSU is valuable enough. Florida is already covered and FSU wasn’t and isn’t like University of Texas. I don’t think the SEC covet FSU. By the same logic, I don’t think Clemson has any chance at the SEC.
On the other hand, the B1G may be interested in getting a team or two in Florida. In my view, their entry threshold is a bit lower than the SEC’s and the BIG already showed the willingness to add remote schools in good media market.
I suspect that FSU signed the GoR because they knew they won’t get an invitation from the SEC.
Now FSU is mentioned as a potential candidate for the BIG, FSU’s admin started openly discussing the potential exit.
By the way, I agree that VT had a better chance to join the SEC in 2011. VT fans don’t complain as much though.
UF only holds a small lead on college sports market share in the State of FL. And it’s been a shrinking %. And that’s with its historic SEC membership advantage. So I absolutely wouldn’t call FL “covered”.
(03-13-2023 12:32 AM)dawgitall Wrote: The year is 2034. College football players are paid and aren't required to be currently enrolled in the university they represent. Players constantly move from one school to the next looking for some combination of higher pay, better sponsorship deals, or more playing time. Streaming has finally overtaken cable as the technology has greatly improved and the last of the baby boomers are retired and on fixed incomes. Cable companies are either on their last leg, merged with streaming services but mostly just gone out of business. ESPN has been sold by Disney, reduced to 3 channels and his been bleeding cash despite massive cuts. Fox, CBS, ABC and NBC aren't doing much better. Viewership for football in general and college football in particular has been stagnant or declining since 2027 as other programing and a general lack of interest seems to the the norm as a few college sponsored teams dominate year after year.
Maybe they're all doomed. No one can predict the future.
2027? Pretty small chance of all of those things playing out AND having staggering impact that soon. 2037? Maybe!
(03-13-2023 12:32 AM)dawgitall Wrote: The year is 2034. College football players are paid and aren't required to be currently enrolled in the university they represent. Players constantly move from one school to the next looking for some combination of higher pay, better sponsorship deals, or more playing time. Streaming has finally overtaken cable as the technology has greatly improved and the last of the baby boomers are retired and on fixed incomes. Cable companies are either on their last leg, merged with streaming services but mostly just gone out of business. ESPN has been sold by Disney, reduced to 3 channels and his been bleeding cash despite massive cuts. Fox, CBS, ABC and NBC aren't doing much better. Viewership for football in general and college football in particular has been stagnant or declining since 2027 as other programing and a general lack of interest seems to the the norm as a few college sponsored teams dominate year after year.
Maybe they're all doomed. No one can predict the future.
The only question is which will be stalking the survivors: killer robots (ala "Terminator") or mutants (ala "I Am Legend")?
(04-21-2022 11:13 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Miami and FSU are the most valuable programs, followed by Clemson. PERIOD.
SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE
Most valuable to the ACC - not to the SEC.
sec brand blankets south ...
south florida sticks out like a sore thumb ...
charm resistant ...
and only UM reliably delivers exotic market ...
also, as realignment expert frank the tank has keenly observed...
Miami can go b1g without fsu ...
not the other way around ...
TRY AS THEY MIGHT
Miami doesn't really fit the SEC, green. Only private is Vandy.
(04-21-2022 11:13 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Miami and FSU are the most valuable programs, followed by Clemson. PERIOD.
SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE
Most valuable to the ACC - not to the SEC.
sec brand blankets south ...
south florida sticks out like a sore thumb ...
charm resistant ...
and only UM reliably delivers exotic market ...
also, as realignment expert frank the tank has keenly observed...
Miami can go b1g without fsu ...
not the other way around ...
TRY AS THEY MIGHT
Miami doesn't really fit the SEC, green. Only private is Vandy.
YOU WaNTED Candy!!
same can be said of usc & b1g ...
privatize profits socialize losses ...
(03-13-2023 12:32 AM)dawgitall Wrote: The year is 2034. College football players are paid and aren't required to be currently enrolled in the university they represent. Players constantly move from one school to the next looking for some combination of higher pay, better sponsorship deals, or more playing time. Streaming has finally overtaken cable as the technology has greatly improved and the last of the baby boomers are retired and on fixed incomes. Cable companies are either on their last leg, merged with streaming services but mostly just gone out of business. ESPN has been sold by Disney, reduced to 3 channels and his been bleeding cash despite massive cuts. Fox, CBS, ABC and NBC aren't doing much better. Viewership for football in general and college football in particular has been stagnant or declining since 2027 as other programing and a general lack of interest seems to the the norm as a few college sponsored teams dominate year after year.
Maybe they're all doomed. No one can predict the future.
2027? Pretty small chance of all of those things playing out AND having staggering impact that soon. 2037? Maybe!
Reread, I said 2034. The 2027 was the beginning of stagnant growth followed by declining viewership.
(03-13-2023 12:32 AM)dawgitall Wrote: The year is 2034. College football players are paid and aren't required to be currently enrolled in the university they represent. Players constantly move from one school to the next looking for some combination of higher pay, better sponsorship deals, or more playing time. Streaming has finally overtaken cable as the technology has greatly improved and the last of the baby boomers are retired and on fixed incomes. Cable companies are either on their last leg, merged with streaming services but mostly just gone out of business. ESPN has been sold by Disney, reduced to 3 channels and his been bleeding cash despite massive cuts. Fox, CBS, ABC and NBC aren't doing much better. Viewership for football in general and college football in particular has been stagnant or declining since 2027 as other programing and a general lack of interest seems to the the norm as a few college sponsored teams dominate year after year.
Maybe they're all doomed. No one can predict the future.
The only question is which will be stalking the survivors: killer robots (ala "Terminator") or mutants (ala "I Am Legend")?
It doesn't matter as long as my Social Security and pension checks keep coming.
