(03-06-2023 05:43 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Where would the 4C rank academically with the rest of the Big 12?

For many (approaching most yet?), it's at or approaching "survival mode" now. As long as the academics aren't awful, and the pay is better, they (those "many," not all yet) will jump. If they can.

(03-06-2023 04:31 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  If the B1G takes UO, UW, Cal, and Stanford then that means that

A) the B1G is taking fewer teams in the ACC which means the ACC will be able to backfill from the BigXII east setting the stage for an M2 East/West split

B) the B1G is taking teams from the East AND West which means a huge B1 and a likely P2 breakaway. In this scenario there is no M revenue tier to hold together a sprawling non-P2 conference that spans from San Diego to Orlando. So a likely regional splitting of non-P2 into smaller geographic footprint conferences.

Hardly

It means WVU is about to get its old Big East rivals as members of Big 12

P3 setup, with no PAC, no ACC, and a 3rd conference of aggregated P5 leftovers. The only tenable path to prevent separation

With P3, you can have a four team playoff in each conference with one wild card for ND or At-Large. Otherwise, maybe go 3 byes and 10 teams in round 1, for a 13-team playoff. Ugly, but effective. Probably needs another cycle to happen (P3 won't happen by 26').

Colorado scheduled a special meeting for March 8, 2023 with their BOR to discuss athletic updates in the PAC-12. They've intermittently had these meetings, so I wouldn't expect anything special out of this, but still another place for smoke.

Soure: https://go.boarddocs.com/co/cu/Board.nsf/Public

Big12 fans crack me up.

(03-06-2023 06:07 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Big12 fans crack me up.

I sense desperation that the golden ticket may be slipping out of Peruna's mouth.

(03-06-2023 04:36 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

...someone once said (as I read a quote on a Van Hagar album),

"That which is understood need not be discussed."

(03-06-2023 03:46 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Tomorrow is Tuesday! :-)

"Two weeks."

(03-06-2023 04:41 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 04:31 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  If the B1G takes UO, UW, Cal, and Stanford then that means that

A) the B1G is taking fewer teams in the ACC which means the ACC will be able to backfill from the BigXII east setting the stage for an M2 East/West split

B) the B1G is taking teams from the East AND West which means a huge B1 and a likely P2 breakaway. In this scenario there is no M revenue tier to hold together a sprawling non-P2 conference that spans from San Diego to Orlando. So a likely regional splitting of non-P2 into smaller geographic footprint conferences.

From all the info people seem to be finding, Cal and OR would appear to be unlikely to get B10 invites.

Stanford, Kansas, Colorado, and Washington, at least have "maybe" next to their names.

As for ACC, if today there was not exit fee or GoR, The most that I think the Big10 might go after is 6 - VA, NC, Duke, GT, FSU, and Miami.

So taking 2-4 schools now, while they are an option, still leaves room for much of what they might later want from the ACC. Besides, there's no guarantee that the ACC schools say yes. Some might prefer the SEC.

Exactly right as far as numbers go, Skyhawk. (Have you been looking at my notes?). The BIG would take a seventh if ND said they wanted to be number 8. They can easily take 4 now and still be in solid shape. Think they could even take 8 if they wanted and still have room, but the financials are likely not there.

(03-06-2023 05:43 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Where would the 4C rank academically with the rest of the Big 12? They should be ahead of everyone except who? Kansas? TCU? Houston? BYU?

Fwiw, Arizona and Arizona State list no new Big 12 schools as peer schools. I *think* Utah lists Cincinnati. Colorado lists Iowa State and Kansas.

(03-06-2023 03:07 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:59 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  This is notable, but is there a Thamel quote in the article where sources are intimating that Colorado and Arizona are shifting towards the Big XII? It's behind a paywall.

No, not even an anonymous source. Here is the paragreaph:

Quote:At some point, knowing it doesn't make fiscal sense for Oregon and Washington to be long-term committed, do other Pac-12 schools seek to chart their own course? Colorado and Arizona are the odds-on candidates to jump first to the Big 12, which remains open for business. After all, there's only so much nobility sticking on a ship that nearly everyone thinks will sink in 60 months.

Sounds like personal speculation based on knowledge of the situation type of comment.

He did say that sources told him that all the 4c were exploring their options, or at least having preliminary talks with other conferences. He was very vague about things, but he wouldn't have written that article if there wasn't at least a little bit of fire to all this smoke. If only there was a way for Kliavkoff to put out the fire...oh, wait, he could! He doesn't need to provide an actual deal yet, just leak the outline of the deal to Thamel, McMurphy, or Ourand (someone outside the Pac sphere who will be trusted). It's possible that negotiations are too sensitive right now to leak, and it's possible that negotiations are going so poorly that he feels that leaking details would be worse than saying nothing. For the Pac's sake, I hope it's the former.

here's the quote from the article:

According to sources, there has been at least minimal contact between the Big 12 and the Four Corner schools -- Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. That contact has emerged to varying degrees and via various methods, depending on the school. But there's a bottom-line pragmatism to the conversation. "You can't blame anyone for looking for options and what's out there," an industry source said.

(03-06-2023 06:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 06:07 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Big12 fans crack me up.

I sense desperation that the golden ticket may be slipping out of Peruna's mouth.

Don’t know why SMU fans are carrying water for the PAC. No matter what happens, they will be in a better situation than now.

(03-06-2023 03:10 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I don't think having BYU harms Utah. Utah is AAU and excels in football. Nor do I think having Arizona harms Arizona St. Arizona St is a large school in a highly populated state. Bringing in all 4C schools has more advantages than disadvantages.

Today? Absolutely. But what happens if in 5 years, Utah isn't doing so well while BYU is the 2 time defending big 12 champs? What happens if ACC rumors start heating up and Yormark decides he needs to save spots for VT, GT, NCST, Duke, Miami, etc? Today, the 4c know that the big 12 wants them. Tomorrow? Probably, but not certainly. Balance that against the very high likelihood of further Pac defections to the B1G, and Utah should be asking themselves if they're in a better position to join the big 12 today or in 5-10 years.

(03-06-2023 03:30 PM)cc22 Wrote:  I think a bigger deal is who’s writing this than what it says. No matter how it turns out, I’d be annoyed if I’m the Pac and a prospective partner puts out an article like this that doesn’t throw water on anything.

The very fact that he put out the article should be the concerning thing to the Pac. You know he didn't want to write it, but if he has heard these things then McMurphy and others were about to scoop him.

(03-06-2023 03:35 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:55 PM)chess Wrote:  What is interesting is that we are hearing about Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, and Oregon.

Who is being left out of the conversation? Stanford and Cal.

I can understand that Washington State and Oregon State are missing. -But Stanford and Cal? Northern California? What a large market to miss!

I don't think that TV networks really fall for the idea of Stanford and Cal bringing the Northern California market like the networks might have fallen for the idea of schools like Rutgers and Maryland bringing big TV networks a decade ago. The data that TV networks have has improved immensely since then.

Based on the Twitter map, it actually seems like Oregon might not be any less popular in Northern California than Stanford and Cal are. (Note I'm saying Northern California as a whole-not specifically the San Francisco-Oakland TV market.)

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/m...ootballMap

Every time I see that map I mean to bookmark, it's great. Oregon looks awfully strong on it, which makes sense as their TV ratings have likewise been awfully strong for a long time.

(03-06-2023 03:47 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:35 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:28 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Thats my main argument for the 4Cs to leave

Washington and Oregon to the Big 10 is going to happen eventually, so just go ahead and do what you're going to do while you have the most leverage.

Trying to get out of the PAC after Washington and Oregon have left won't give you as much leverage as you have now.

I feel it speaks more strongly to Utah and the 2nd Arizona school. A move by Arizona and Colorado to the Big 12 first, means the Big 12 can then be choosy about teams 3 and 4. This would put Utah and ASU into more precarious territory. Does the Big 12 need Utah when they have BYU? Do they need ASU when they have Arizona? Would the Big 12 consider an SDSU in place of those schools? What are the odds that a bigger fish shakes out while they are discussing this?

The most leverage any and all of the 4C schools have, comes from a move to the Big 12 when the fate of the PAC is still uncertain. That is the only way to guarantee all of those schools are going to make the Big 12 cut.

That said, I don't see any way Arizona makes a move without ASU. They share a board of regents. How is one going to be under enough threat and institutional pressure to move and the other is going to be aware of this move and sit in an even further depleted PAC?

I've been saying this for awhile now and will continue to do so even though I doubt it happens. Colorado/either Arizona school/SDSU/someone from the east adds more to the conference IMO than all 4C together, particularly given that the G5 additions would surely be willing to come in at a reduced rate for this contract.

No g5 school comes remotely close to any of the 4c. Not SDSU. Not Memphis. Not Boise. Certainly not SMU. The only way I can see them even considering a g5 would be if they have an odd number of Pac schools looking to join, and even then they'd probably wait to see what else shakes off the tree before perhaps eventually, reluctantly, calling somebody.

(03-06-2023 06:07 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Big12 fans crack me up.

Sorry South Methodist fan, go watch the pony express on 30 for 30. Maybe that will cheer you up. It was the beginning of the end for the pac when so cal and ucla announced they were leaving. The nail in the coffin for the pac was when captain kliavkof visited smu hoping no one would notice he was there

(03-06-2023 04:58 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 04:55 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:34 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:28 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Thats my main argument for the 4Cs to leave

Washington and Oregon to the Big 10 is going to happen eventually, so just go ahead and do what you're going to do while you have the most leverage.

Trying to get out of the PAC after Washington and Oregon have left won't give you as much leverage as you have now.

Similar but even if Oregon & Washington don't get the Big 10 invite and decide to jump to the Big 12 then there's at most there's 2 seats left. Now 2 of the 4 corner schools are getting left behind. Secure your spot while it's available. Especially if you're Utah and your marketplace is an overlap.

But one of your fellow Knight fans says that adding Oregon & Washington stretches out the footprint too much. He/she wants a more regional conference. Just repeating what I heard.

Oregon and Washington likely would be a rental either way, but could be a good rental for 2, 5, 15 yrs.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

But it would mean that your conference would not be regional, something that you stated that you wanted in a previous post.

Also define how a "rental " does not conflict with having a " regional " conference.

(03-06-2023 07:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 03:30 PM)cc22 Wrote:  I think a bigger deal is who’s writing this than what it says. No matter how it turns out, I’d be annoyed if I’m the Pac and a prospective partner puts out an article like this that doesn’t throw water on anything.

The very fact that he put out the article should be the concerning thing to the Pac. You know he didn't want to write it, but if he has heard these things then McMurphy and others were about to scoop him.

Best case scenario for the Pac, it's just Thamel/ESPN trying to generate clicks, but it's also the company you want to give you money. When you're facing a messaging battle in public, you'd prefer not to have a current partner and prospective future partner at least not try to fan the flames.

And I still think the clubhouse leader is Pac survival, but, yes, this doesn't help them paint the portrait of a strong league from ESPN.

(03-06-2023 07:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 03:35 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(03-06-2023 02:55 PM)chess Wrote:  What is interesting is that we are hearing about Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, and Oregon.

Who is being left out of the conversation? Stanford and Cal.

I can understand that Washington State and Oregon State are missing. -But Stanford and Cal? Northern California? What a large market to miss!

I don't think that TV networks really fall for the idea of Stanford and Cal bringing the Northern California market like the networks might have fallen for the idea of schools like Rutgers and Maryland bringing big TV networks a decade ago. The data that TV networks have has improved immensely since then.

Based on the Twitter map, it actually seems like Oregon might not be any less popular in Northern California than Stanford and Cal are. (Note I'm saying Northern California as a whole-not specifically the San Francisco-Oakland TV market.)

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/m...ootballMap

Every time I see that map I mean to bookmark, it's great. Oregon looks awfully strong on it, which makes sense as their TV ratings have likewise been awfully strong for a long time.

One thing is that Stanford’s TV ratings are actually pretty strong, though (even controlling for taking out any USC/UCLA matchups). From my recollection, Stanford’s TV viewership is right in line with Oregon and Washington as opposed to the rest of the conference. They’re sort of like Miami where they’re a much better TV draw compared to their in-person attendance. When you add Stanford’s academics and market to that profile, it becomes clearer why they’d be a Big Ten candidate. Cal is markedly weaker on the TV ratings front compared to Stanford, so it’s important to distinguish the two (although I ultimately still think they go everywhere as a pair).