Here's something I'm thinking about. Let's say Oregon and Washington get into the B1G. A lot of people assume if that happens, the 4C schools bolt to the Big 12. What if the remaining 8 PAC decide to merge with the ACC instead for academic reasons for 22 football schools, and add Gonzaga to round off basketball at 24.

Football is scheduled where everyone gets 3 protected rivals, and plays everyone else once every 3 years. The ACC maintain their 3 protected rivals as is, the 4C can be a pod, and the 4 NW schools can be a pod. For ND, I would ask them to increase their games to 6 games, but in return, they would play Cal and Stanford 2x in the rotation. This allows ND to play everyone once every 4 years, and maintain a Cali game (assuming they play USC annually). Another way of looking at it for ND is 5 ACC/PAC schools, Stanford/Cal, USC, Navy, and 4 other games ND schedules.

For basketball, teams can be split up into 8 pods of 3. Play their own pod 2x, the other 7 pods 2 of the 3 teams are played, then 2-4 additional games within region (9 schools West, 15 schools East) for 20-22 conference games. Maybe cut down the cross-country matchups in half to reduce travel, but this seemed to be the best balanced schedule.

(02-22-2023 11:40 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Why would ND fully join this conference when it doesn't want to join the SEC or the Big Ten?

IF ND has to surrender its hard fought for independence, it would do so for P2 status and the most cash, not P3 status and less cash.

Notre Dame more than half-joined the ACC when the B1G was available as an option. I think it's pretty clear they want to institutionally align with the ACC schools. Notre Dame going from 5 to 8 ACC conference games isn't a big deal when the ACC would have tendrils into the west coast, with rival Stanford coming along for the ride. And being on the "outside" in the ACC would preserve Notre Dame's independent spirit.

And they won't surrender cash to join the ACC. They'll keep their own TV deal, preferential scheduling treatment, etc. They'll be independent except for playing 8 ACC games + gaining access to the ACC championship game.

(02-22-2023 12:31 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 11:40 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Why would ND fully join this conference when it doesn't want to join the SEC or the Big Ten?

IF ND has to surrender its hard fought for independence, it would do so for P2 status and the most cash, not P3 status and less cash.

Notre Dame more than half-joined the ACC when the B1G was available as an option. I think it's pretty clear they want to institutionally align with the ACC schools. Notre Dame going from 5 to 8 ACC conference games isn't a big deal when the ACC would have tendrils into the west coast, with rival Stanford coming along for the ride. And being on the "outside" in the ACC would preserve Notre Dame's independent spirit.

And they won't surrender cash to join the ACC. They'll keep their own TV deal, preferential scheduling treatment, etc. They'll be independent except for playing 8 ACC games + gaining access to the ACC championship game.

Eh - it's a big deal.

I agree to a certain point that there are institutional fit commonalities between ND and the ACC. However, the reason why they took the ACC deal instead of joining the Big Ten was about the ACC was offering a partial membership that allowed ND to continue with independence and the Big Ten wasn't. ND was considering the Big 12 as a partial member circa 2010, too, and there was NO institutional fit there at all.

You're having ND play a full conference slate plus having access to the conference championship game. We can dress it up any way that we want and provide ND a separate TV deal and use semantics that this somehow isn't joining a conference, but ND would absolutely joining the ACC under what you've described.

The difference between 5 ACC games per year and a full conference slate is MASSIVE. It's NOT about the TV deal. This is about ND having REAL control and autonomy... or at least being able to sell to their alums that they have REAL control and autonomy.

I could somewhat see ND going up to 6 ACC games per year IF one of those games is reserved for Stanford, which is a game that they're playing annually, anyway. They're not doing more than that or else, as TerryD stated, they'd join the Big Ten (or much less likely the SEC) to at least get the financial benefit of giving up independence.

APAC sounds more like a political organization than a potential athletic conference.

Nevertheless, this does seem like a strong fall back option for academic-oriented programs like UNC/Duke/UVa/Cal/Stanford/Washington/etc. Specifically, creating the strongest national alternative to the B1G and SEC…while simultaneously leaving open the possibility that individual members may join the B1G or SEC. This keeps football brands (ND/FSU/Clemson/Miami/Oregon/Utah/etc.) fully engaged; and provides long-term hope for smaller AD programs (as opposed to having to make constant overtures to the B12).

They have five years to execute their vision, before the B1G/SEC knock them down with P2 $$$.

(02-22-2023 12:10 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  Here's something I'm thinking about. Let's say Oregon and Washington get into the B1G. A lot of people assume if that happens, the 4C schools bolt to the Big 12. What if the remaining 8 PAC decide to merge with the ACC instead for academic reasons for 22 football schools, and add Gonzaga to round off basketball at 24.

Football is scheduled where everyone gets 3 protected rivals, and plays everyone else once every 3 years. The ACC maintain their 3 protected rivals as is, the 4C can be a pod, and the 4 NW schools can be a pod. For ND, I would ask them to increase their games to 6 games, but in return, they would play Cal and Stanford 2x in the rotation. This allows ND to play everyone once every 4 years, and maintain a Cali game (assuming they play USC annually). Another way of looking at it for ND is 5 ACC/PAC schools, Stanford/Cal, USC, Navy, and 4 other games ND schedules.

For basketball, teams can be split up into 8 pods of 3. Play their own pod 2x, the other 7 pods 2 of the 3 teams are played, then 2-4 additional games within region (9 schools West, 15 schools East) for 20-22 conference games. Maybe cut down the cross-country matchups in half to reduce travel, but this seemed to be the best balanced schedule.

I have a hard time seeing the ACC being willing to merge with a PAC that’s lost Oregon and Washington.


I think that any scenario where the ACC merged with even part of the PAC is contingent on Oregon and Washington not getting a BIG invite. Whether it’s the ACC just inviting Oregon and Washington themselves to get to 16, the ACC inviting Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal to get to 18, the ACC inviting the entire PAC except for Oregon State and Washington State to get to 22, or even the ACC merging with the entire PAC to get to 24.

(02-22-2023 01:36 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 12:10 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  Here's something I'm thinking about. Let's say Oregon and Washington get into the B1G. A lot of people assume if that happens, the 4C schools bolt to the Big 12. What if the remaining 8 PAC decide to merge with the ACC instead for academic reasons for 22 football schools, and add Gonzaga to round off basketball at 24.

Football is scheduled where everyone gets 3 protected rivals, and plays everyone else once every 3 years. The ACC maintain their 3 protected rivals as is, the 4C can be a pod, and the 4 NW schools can be a pod. For ND, I would ask them to increase their games to 6 games, but in return, they would play Cal and Stanford 2x in the rotation. This allows ND to play everyone once every 4 years, and maintain a Cali game (assuming they play USC annually). Another way of looking at it for ND is 5 ACC/PAC schools, Stanford/Cal, USC, Navy, and 4 other games ND schedules.

For basketball, teams can be split up into 8 pods of 3. Play their own pod 2x, the other 7 pods 2 of the 3 teams are played, then 2-4 additional games within region (9 schools West, 15 schools East) for 20-22 conference games. Maybe cut down the cross-country matchups in half to reduce travel, but this seemed to be the best balanced schedule.

I have a hard time seeing the ACC being willing to merge with a PAC that’s lost Oregon and Washington.

I think that any scenario where the ACC merged with even part of the PAC is contingent on Oregon and Washington not getting a BIG invite. Whether it’s the ACC just inviting Oregon and Washington themselves to get to 16, the ACC inviting Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal to get to 18, the ACC inviting the entire PAC except for Oregon State and Washington State to get to 22, or even the ACC merging with the entire PAC to get to 24.

I figured it would be a tough sell. I could also see California, Stanford, and the 4 corners with or without Gonzaga as a little more realistic, but figured if Gonzaga gets included, Oregon St. and Washington St. could help create geographic pod, and I don't want to see Oregon St. and Washington St. left behind. Obviously the ACC would love Oregon and Washington, but I think the B1G eventually gets them whether it's 2024, 2026, or 2030.

(02-22-2023 12:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The difference between 5 ACC games per year and a full conference slate is MASSIVE. It's NOT about the TV deal. This is about ND having REAL control and autonomy... or at least being able to sell to their alums that they have REAL control and autonomy.

I could somewhat see ND going up to 6 ACC games per year IF one of those games is reserved for Stanford, which is a game that they're playing annually, anyway. They're not doing more than that or else, as TerryD stated, they'd join the Big Ten (or much less likely the SEC) to at least get the financial benefit of giving up independence.

I'm imagining the scenario where the ACC comprises more than 1/3 of the membership of the "OG" P5 schools just by itself, and the ACC is home to many of Notre Dame's rivals, and the ACC spans recruiting hotspots coast to coast and hits most major media markets. In a given year, Notre Dame was already scheduling most of these schools anyhow.

(02-25-2023 09:23 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

Obviously this won’t work unless they add Southern Miss to help fill that gap between the coasts.

(02-22-2023 09:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I have been saying for quite a while that ESPN cannot offer what ND wants, the 2:30 or 3:30 afternoon slot.

Why not? Notre Dame is still a very attractive commodity. I don't think ESPN has any contractual obligations for the afternoon ESPN slot. If that's what it takes to get Notre Dame inside the tent, ESPN doesn't make that deal?

(Obligatory disclaimer: Most likely outcome is Notre Dame signs with NBC for SEC-Big Ten ballpark money.)

(02-22-2023 09:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 05:51 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 01:51 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 01:49 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  You mean they’re all in except for their majority stake in the big 12 and potentially the PAC. Wait, that’s everyone except the B1G.

I’m curious how ESPN expects to keep FSU and UNC (and others) in the ACC post-2036. What’s their plan? Just throw buckets of money at them?

They won't. Watch what happens (Live?) with Notre Dame. If ESPN goes hard after the Irish, that will signal to everyone that a dual implosion is at hand. One of the ACC and one of the Pac-12/Big 12/maybe both.

Huh? ESPN should go hard after the Irish b/c they're a premier Brand in CFB. Full Stop. Their pursuit of the Irish, or lack thereof, is independent of their other CFB pursuits. I think that it doesn't matter, however, and the Irish are going to stick with NBC, but they might use ESPN or others to keep NBC honest.

The main issue with any potential ESPN/ND deal is that ABC is locked in with the SEC Game of the Week in the mid-afternoon. This means that you would literally never have an ND afternoon home game on over-the-air television in an ESPN deal. I'm sure ND would look at an offer from ESPN if the money was simply overwhelming, but out of all schools, they're the ones that care about maximum exposure in and of itself the most along with being able to have firm control of their home game start times. Plus, it's hard to see ESPN coming in with an overwhelming deal for ND in the first place when they can't put any ND home games into the late afternoon time slot on ABC. It's similar to why the Big Ten didn't end up with a deal with ESPN - the money between all networks was actually all similar, but ESPN couldn't offer the guaranteed weekly time slots that all 3 other main OTA networks we offering. ESPN wants maximum flexibility in time slots between leagues since they have multiple networks to juggle, whereas both the Big Ten and ND care a LOT about fixed guaranteed time slots.

The only network that could offer ND all of the same home game afternoon time slots that they currently get on NBC is Fox. The Fox afternoon and prime slots are open (and the Big 12 package is flexible where they can shift game times around, unlike the Big Ten locked-in slot at noon ET).

I have been saying for quite a while that ESPN cannot offer what ND wants, the 2:30 or 3:30 afternoon slot.

Without that, I highly doubt ND would be interested in an ESPN TV deal.

ND would more likely take an NBC deal that paid significantly less money but offered those dedicated TV start times.

CBS can offer it and NBC can supplement it if it's in the Big 10, but you'll still be up against the SEC on ABC. Isn't this more what you mean?

(02-25-2023 09:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 05:51 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 01:51 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  They won't. Watch what happens (Live?) with Notre Dame. If ESPN goes hard after the Irish, that will signal to everyone that a dual implosion is at hand. One of the ACC and one of the Pac-12/Big 12/maybe both.

Huh? ESPN should go hard after the Irish b/c they're a premier Brand in CFB. Full Stop. Their pursuit of the Irish, or lack thereof, is independent of their other CFB pursuits. I think that it doesn't matter, however, and the Irish are going to stick with NBC, but they might use ESPN or others to keep NBC honest.

The main issue with any potential ESPN/ND deal is that ABC is locked in with the SEC Game of the Week in the mid-afternoon. This means that you would literally never have an ND afternoon home game on over-the-air television in an ESPN deal. I'm sure ND would look at an offer from ESPN if the money was simply overwhelming, but out of all schools, they're the ones that care about maximum exposure in and of itself the most along with being able to have firm control of their home game start times. Plus, it's hard to see ESPN coming in with an overwhelming deal for ND in the first place when they can't put any ND home games into the late afternoon time slot on ABC. It's similar to why the Big Ten didn't end up with a deal with ESPN - the money between all networks was actually all similar, but ESPN couldn't offer the guaranteed weekly time slots that all 3 other main OTA networks we offering. ESPN wants maximum flexibility in time slots between leagues since they have multiple networks to juggle, whereas both the Big Ten and ND care a LOT about fixed guaranteed time slots.

The only network that could offer ND all of the same home game afternoon time slots that they currently get on NBC is Fox. The Fox afternoon and prime slots are open (and the Big 12 package is flexible where they can shift game times around, unlike the Big Ten locked-in slot at noon ET).

I have been saying for quite a while that ESPN cannot offer what ND wants, the 2:30 or 3:30 afternoon slot.

Without that, I highly doubt ND would be interested in an ESPN TV deal.

ND would more likely take an NBC deal that paid significantly less money but offered those dedicated TV start times.

CBS can offer it and NBC can supplement it if it's in the Big 10, but you'll still be up against the SEC on ABC. Isn't this more what you mean?

CBS has committed that timeslot to the Big Ten.

(02-25-2023 10:14 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 09:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-21-2023 05:51 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Huh? ESPN should go hard after the Irish b/c they're a premier Brand in CFB. Full Stop. Their pursuit of the Irish, or lack thereof, is independent of their other CFB pursuits. I think that it doesn't matter, however, and the Irish are going to stick with NBC, but they might use ESPN or others to keep NBC honest.

The main issue with any potential ESPN/ND deal is that ABC is locked in with the SEC Game of the Week in the mid-afternoon. This means that you would literally never have an ND afternoon home game on over-the-air television in an ESPN deal. I'm sure ND would look at an offer from ESPN if the money was simply overwhelming, but out of all schools, they're the ones that care about maximum exposure in and of itself the most along with being able to have firm control of their home game start times. Plus, it's hard to see ESPN coming in with an overwhelming deal for ND in the first place when they can't put any ND home games into the late afternoon time slot on ABC. It's similar to why the Big Ten didn't end up with a deal with ESPN - the money between all networks was actually all similar, but ESPN couldn't offer the guaranteed weekly time slots that all 3 other main OTA networks we offering. ESPN wants maximum flexibility in time slots between leagues since they have multiple networks to juggle, whereas both the Big Ten and ND care a LOT about fixed guaranteed time slots.

The only network that could offer ND all of the same home game afternoon time slots that they currently get on NBC is Fox. The Fox afternoon and prime slots are open (and the Big 12 package is flexible where they can shift game times around, unlike the Big Ten locked-in slot at noon ET).

I have been saying for quite a while that ESPN cannot offer what ND wants, the 2:30 or 3:30 afternoon slot.

Without that, I highly doubt ND would be interested in an ESPN TV deal.

ND would more likely take an NBC deal that paid significantly less money but offered those dedicated TV start times.

CBS can offer it and NBC can supplement it if it's in the Big 10, but you'll still be up against the SEC on ABC. Isn't this more what you mean?

CBS has committed that timeslot to the Big Ten.

That's exactly my accusation!

(02-25-2023 10:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 10:14 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 09:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The main issue with any potential ESPN/ND deal is that ABC is locked in with the SEC Game of the Week in the mid-afternoon. This means that you would literally never have an ND afternoon home game on over-the-air television in an ESPN deal. I'm sure ND would look at an offer from ESPN if the money was simply overwhelming, but out of all schools, they're the ones that care about maximum exposure in and of itself the most along with being able to have firm control of their home game start times. Plus, it's hard to see ESPN coming in with an overwhelming deal for ND in the first place when they can't put any ND home games into the late afternoon time slot on ABC. It's similar to why the Big Ten didn't end up with a deal with ESPN - the money between all networks was actually all similar, but ESPN couldn't offer the guaranteed weekly time slots that all 3 other main OTA networks we offering. ESPN wants maximum flexibility in time slots between leagues since they have multiple networks to juggle, whereas both the Big Ten and ND care a LOT about fixed guaranteed time slots.

The only network that could offer ND all of the same home game afternoon time slots that they currently get on NBC is Fox. The Fox afternoon and prime slots are open (and the Big 12 package is flexible where they can shift game times around, unlike the Big Ten locked-in slot at noon ET).

I have been saying for quite a while that ESPN cannot offer what ND wants, the 2:30 or 3:30 afternoon slot.

Without that, I highly doubt ND would be interested in an ESPN TV deal.

ND would more likely take an NBC deal that paid significantly less money but offered those dedicated TV start times.

CBS can offer it and NBC can supplement it if it's in the Big 10, but you'll still be up against the SEC on ABC. Isn't this more what you mean?

CBS has committed that timeslot to the Big Ten.

That's exactly my accusation!

Oohhhhhhh. In that case, no, that's not what TerryD means.

(02-25-2023 10:21 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 10:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 10:14 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 09:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I have been saying for quite a while that ESPN cannot offer what ND wants, the 2:30 or 3:30 afternoon slot.

Without that, I highly doubt ND would be interested in an ESPN TV deal.

ND would more likely take an NBC deal that paid significantly less money but offered those dedicated TV start times.

CBS can offer it and NBC can supplement it if it's in the Big 10, but you'll still be up against the SEC on ABC. Isn't this more what you mean?

CBS has committed that timeslot to the Big Ten.

That's exactly my accusation!

Oohhhhhhh. In that case, no, that's not what TerryD means.

It sure as hell isn't !!

JR is obliquely referencing a "secret deal" that ND allegedly made last July to join the Big Ten.

It reminds me of the "secret deal" that ND had supposedly made in 2003 with the ACC to join partially then and join in full in 2010, but I digress.

(02-22-2023 10:23 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 09:18 AM)esayem Wrote:  I want to say I’m not in favor of merger into a conference with the Pac.

But, what could happen is the Pac signs a deal the same length as the Big XII. Now they have time to negotiate with the ACC. The ACC has the obvious upper hand over both the Big XII and the Pac. So as the ACC’s GOR is waning, the Big XII and Pac are coming towards the end of their deals. The ACC has ESPN, they have their own network. The Big XII and Pac are ripe for the picking and the ACC has the ability to negotiate the departure of whichever schools actually have invitations to the SEC and Big Ten while fluidly picking off the best of the Big XII and Pac and there’s your third conference.

Ya'll might not like it, but its being set-up that way. I certainly prefer Carolina in the ACC, but money talks.

Good post. I find this timeline more plausible than an "everything is going to blow up THIS YEAR" scenario.

This timeline puts us towards the end of the new Big Ten TV deal, which is naturally when they're going to examine expansion again. There aren't going to be concerns with any GOR obligations from Big 12 schools that want to move at that point (or the Pac-12 presuming that they sign their own GOR). The ACC will still have its GOR, but now you're getting into the range of a short-length early GOR exit that's similar to UT/OU leaving the Big 12 versus trying to get out of a GOR 13 years ahead of time.

As much as the money is critical, we also counterintuitively need to put aside the money. A few million dollars here or there isn't going to outcome determinative. Instead, the threshold question is that once the Big Ten and SEC are in their final forms (whether it's at 18 or 20 or more schools), everyone else is going to want to be in whatever is considered to be the #3 power conference.

In that sense, I agree with JRsec and some others in that a "P3 world" with consolidation may be coming as a general proposition. My issue generally continues to be with the timeline - most posts about the ACC/Pac-12 blowing up NOW require so many different parties to move so quickly and risk so many financial and legal damages and liabilities yet somehow also be all coordinated that it strains credulity.

In contrast, the timeline that you've presented is straight-forward. No one is trying to get out of the ACC GOR 13 years ahead of time. No one is trying to add schools to the Big Ten before its new TV deal is near completion. No one is trying to get Big 12 schools to move before its new TV deal is near completion. We have seen that power conference realignment comes in waves - there is intense movement for a year or two and then it settles for a few years until the next wave comes.

Money matters. The ACC is still locked into a 2016 deal. Big 12 and Pac are getting new deals 5 or 6 years before the ACC. The only way the ACC has an advantage is if the market crashes and dollars are down.

(02-22-2023 12:31 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 11:40 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Why would ND fully join this conference when it doesn't want to join the SEC or the Big Ten?

IF ND has to surrender its hard fought for independence, it would do so for P2 status and the most cash, not P3 status and less cash.

Notre Dame more than half-joined the ACC when the B1G was available as an option. I think it's pretty clear they want to institutionally align with the ACC schools. Notre Dame going from 5 to 8 ACC conference games isn't a big deal when the ACC would have tendrils into the west coast, with rival Stanford coming along for the ride. And being on the "outside" in the ACC would preserve Notre Dame's independent spirit.

And they won't surrender cash to join the ACC. They'll keep their own TV deal, preferential scheduling treatment, etc. They'll be independent except for playing 8 ACC games + gaining access to the ACC championship game.

That is definitely a possibility.

I've been wondering this for like, a decade now, but at what point does ESPN just draw up their own conferences, put dollar values on each, and send those to all the schools and say "make this happen, collect that amount."