(02-13-2023 07:09 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: A lot of this boils down to what the networks want.
Fox clearly sees no benefit in keeping the PAC 10 together because they didn’t bother to bid.
ESPN wants late night content but wants it on the cheap.
Amazon wants in the college football game but the content has to feature desirable brands that drive subscribership.
The unconventional plan that I think makes the most parties happy would be:
1. The Big 10 signs Oregon and Washington at reduced shares and inks a Friday night exclusive with Amazon.
2. 6-8 of the remaining PAC 10 schools join the Big 12 and ESPN/FOX pay pro rata to the new members. This gives the two networks content for the “after dark” time slot for ESPN, ESPN2, and FS1.
3. To open up some room in the Big 12, ESPN moves UCF, Cincinnati, and WVU over to the ACC and ups their tv contract a couple million per school for their troubles.
#1 isn't going to happen. I think at best it will be Stanford and Washington. But even that's iffy.
I think at this point, 1 of 3 things needs to happen before B10 expansion beyond 16:
a.) That the PAC is poached already, removing potential "blame"/liability possibility from the B10.
b.) That there is a risk the SEC might take Kansas or Colorado
c.) That the ACC schools become potentially available...
For #2, that's possible, but the 6 PAC schools are not going to move without a california presence.
And it's starting to appear that "travel partners"/rivals is how things get done now.
So SDSU and Fresno State invites happen to facilitate the deal. Probably at an initial reduced payout.
#3 makes a lot of sense for everyone. Better if they can facilitate a move of FSU and Clemson, to the SEC, while they are at it.