(02-10-2023 11:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:38 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  John Canzano Feb 8th 2023:

What you need to know:

• The Pac-12 is on a mission to replace the football inventory lost by the UCLA/USC defection to the Big Ten. That’s 23 combined football games and a pile of men’s basketball games.

• Adding San Diego State would get the Pac-12 back into Southern California and regain 1.13 million television households.

• Kliavkoff met in December with officials at San Diego State, a conference source told me. A 45-minute meeting between the sides took place in the time around Oregon’s Dec. 28 appearance in the Holiday Bowl, I’m told.

• Adding SMU would bring the Dallas TV market with it. That’s 2.96 million TV homes.

• SMU + San Diego State = 4.1 million combined TV households. That will be attractive to media partners. But after the dust settles, the Pac-12 would still have ~2.6 million fewer television homes than it did before the departures of USC/UCLA.

• The Big Ten will have 33.9 million TV homes after USC and UCLA join. The ACC has 28.3 million and the SEC’s looming expansion (Texas & OU) will raise that conference to 22.4 million TV homes. The Big 12 will swell to 15.1 million homes after its oncoming expansion.

• Would the Pac-12 expand beyond 12 members? It’s possible, depending on how motivated the conference is to add extra inventory and TV homes. The problem becomes finding no-brainer candidates who fit the geography and the conference’s academic profile.

• I’m told, per a source, that one of the media-rights partners the Pac-12 is engaged with is looking for “some tonnage.” The unnamed entity would like to beef up the inventory. This sounds a lot like Amazon, which needs content for the sports app it floated a while ago.

• ESPN and Amazon are the likely Pac-12 media-rights partners. FOX is out. I think that the ramp-up in expansion talk this week signals that the conference is wrapping up the media-rights negotiation. I expect the Pac-12 to have something to talk about before the conference basketball tournaments in Las Vegas next month.

• Fresno State has had “short interactions” with the Pac-12, per a well-placed conference source. No Kliavkoff visit yet, though. The Central Valley of California includes 2.3 million TV homes. That’s attractive. But Fresno’s close proximity to the Bay Area may make Stanford and Cal uneasy.

• Boise State doesn’t sit in a big TV market. There are only 517,000 television households in the entire state of Idaho. But TV partners (FOX, CBS) have a late-night love affair with that blue football field. ESPN may like the Broncos, too, but I wonder if some Pac-12 schools who compete vs. BSU for recruits would veto this one.

• UNLV is an interesting candidate for the Pac-12. The TV market only includes 757,840 households, but it’s a rapidly growing region that includes an NFL stadium and a sea of potential gaming sponsorship opportunities. If adding more football inventory is the Pac-12’s biggest mission, the Rebels become a candidate.

• Academic profile will be a consideration for any addition. The presidents and chancellors in the Pac-12 have never viewed UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State as academic peers. Would they start now? This feels like an obstacle for all three. SMU and San Diego State fit much better.

• I wonder if the Big 12 would look hard at Fresno State and Boise State as future expansion additions. Doing so, would add 2.8 million total TV homes and get Brett Yormark’s conference into that “fourth window” (Pacific Time Zone) he likes to talk about. I think both schools would prefer to be in the Pac-12, but the Big 12 isn’t a bad fallback for either. Keep an eye out there.

Link
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...n-ramps-up

Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State are peers with the likes of SMU, San Diego State, Oregon State and Washington State. If academics is the case? SMU and San Diego State would not be invited either.

I think that the Pac should just add Boise twice: once as a Fooball-only, and once as "everything but football". Double shares for double the fun!

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

Wilner: What’s the timeline and voting process for possible Pac-12 expansion?

By the middle of March, we should have a sense for whether the schools will sign a media rights deal and whether the conference will expand. And it could unfold more rapidly. If the media rights piece drags deep into the spring, trouble could follow. Big trouble!

As a 10-team conference, the Pac-12 would have approximately 65 home football games available to its media partners each season (assuming two nonconference home dates per team).As a 12-team league, it would have approximately 78. That’s a significant difference when each game carries a multimillion-dollar price tag.

I am deeply skeptical about a 14-team league, but there’s no reason we can’t venture down Hypothetical Lane …The primary reason to grow beyond 12 is inventory: More schools mean more games, which create more programming which could, potentially, lead to a better media contract, but only if Amazon and ESPN are pushing for quantity to satisfy their streaming needs.

And in that situation, yes, Rice and Tulane would make the most sense because 1) they provide access to new markets, 2) they (easily) clear the bar academically, and 3) they would create more Central Time kickoffs. But in the real world, the Pac-14 is extremely unlikely.

Link
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-h...r-football

Media companies aren't dumb enough to look at the # of TVs in a market & give a conference credit for them. Pac is desperately trying to assert that SMU = Dallas or Cal = Bay Area or SD St = San Diego. If things worked that way the AAC would be among the most valuable conferences.

Which schools are going to play these Friday night games? Will that push schools to the Big 12 when they realize each school will have at least 1 home & 1 away Friday night game? Or do the schools want the Friday games for some reason? I think there would be riot at Big Ten or SEC schools if they all played 2 Friday games a season, not including the Friday after Thanksgiving.

(02-12-2023 01:08 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 01:00 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:49 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State are peers with the likes of SMU, San Diego State, Oregon State and Washington State. If academics is the case? SMU and San Diego State would not be invited either.

That's not true. If we're going by undergrad rankings, SMU would be the 4th highest ranked Pac-12 school after Stanford, Cal, and Washington. San Diego State is tied in the US News rankings with Oregon State and higher ranked than Washington State. All of those schools are ranked MUCH higher than Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State.

SMU isn't a research powerhouse like how the Pac-12 has looked at candidates in the past, but the issue is that there isn't a research powerhouse out there available that brings enough athletic value. (Rice has the academic side, but not the athletic side.) In essence, the Pac-12 used to apply Big Ten-level academic standards, so under that framework, SMU wouldn't fit. However, my belief is that going forward, the Pac-12 is going to apply ACC-level academic standards (where they're as open to highly-ranked undergraduate schools as much as highly-ranked graduate programs), in which case, SMU pretty perfectly fits that academic profile. If the Pac-12 is serious about wanting to expand, then they can't apply Big Ten academic standards anymore... but applying ACC academic standards definitely brings up some viable candidates that would be conceivably acceptable to schools like Stanford, Cal and Washington. (Everyone needs to remember that Washington is every bit as snobby on academics as Stanford and Cal.)

SDSU and SMU resolve PAC expansion to 12 members.

I don’t believe that there is a reason for 14 members, but if push-came-to-shove the PAC would probably start vetting Tulane and Fresno State. Boise State and UNLV open discussions with two strikes against them…academic standards and smaller markets.

Honestly if given a choice Fresno would probably prefer Big12 to PAC. I don’t know if we will have a choice however. I doubt if the PAC offers Fresno but if they were smart they would cut off the Big 12 having much in the way of CA inroads. Then again not much the PAC-12 Presidents have done looks smart.

If the PAC wants 35M-40M then Fresno will be invited as #3 behind SDSU & SMU. The question becomes who is #4. Gonzaga/Boise St combo is dead since Gonzaga told the PAC No.

IMHO If the Pac-12 is going to take SMU, I have to think it would also look hard at Rice University. The Owls are the fifth-smallest school competing in FBS football nationally, but the campus sits in a television market (Houston) that includes 2.5 million homes.

Since 1996, Rice has bounced from the Southwest Conference to the WAC to Conference USA and is now set to join the American Athletic Conference in 2023. But the move is viewed by industry insiders as temporary. Rice holds a US News Ranking of 17th (AAU; R1 doctoral research university). Could the Pac-12 poach Rice to help justify the SMU addition?

SMU 2.6M TV Homes
RICE 2.5M TV Homes
Fresno 2.3M TV Homes
SDSU 1.3M TV homes

That would put the Pac14 at 20.3M TV Homes and probably in the 40M TV range for the 10 teams and 15-20M for the four new members!

Rice spends Athletics money like Fresno St. SMU spends money like Oklahoma St. Rice is kinda where SMU was 20 years ago: on the outside looking in as their former SWC brethren lurch back into the P5.

(02-12-2023 01:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

I don't think Boise ever was ahead of Cincy or Houston in conference realignment. Boise has 3 strikes - essentially impossible to overcome all 3:

1. Far, far away from all the other teams
2. Very small market
3. Low academic ranking

Very hard to overcome all 3.

(02-12-2023 01:28 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  Media companies aren't dumb enough to look at the # of TVs in a market & give a conference credit for them. Pac is desperately trying to assert that SMU = Dallas or Cal = Bay Area or SD St = San Diego. If things worked that way the AAC would be among the most valuable conferences.

Which schools are going to play these Friday night games? Will that push schools to the Big 12 when they realize each school will have at least 1 home & 1 away Friday night game? Or do the schools want the Friday games for some reason? I think there would be riot at Big Ten or SEC schools if they all played 2 Friday games a season, not including the Friday after Thanksgiving.

# of TVs is not in and of itself required, but it certainly doesn't hurt. And a school like SMU that has a long track record of success, albeit decades ago? That demonstrates that they can capture a lot of those TVs when they're relevant. Get them on WFAA and in the Dallas Morning News every single day with a constant barrage of positive news and a whole lot more people will start caring about them. And I don't think it really matters if it's the big 12 or the Pac 12. It's not the SEC, but it's a whole lot better than the AAC. If I'm a fan, I'd rather go watch SMU play Washington or Oregon than most big 12 schools, anyway.

(02-12-2023 01:32 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(02-12-2023 01:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

I don't think Boise ever was ahead of Cincy or Houston in conference realignment. Boise has 3 strikes - essentially impossible to overcome all 3:

1. Far, far away from all the other teams
2. Very small market
3. Low academic ranking

Very hard to overcome all 3.

From 2006 to 2014 they WON 3 Fiesta Bowls. ESPN loves them. They were a Football Gonzaga there for a while. They could be that again, too. I know that networks don't completely control realignment, but if ESPN and Fox think that Boise is worth $30m a year to a conference while Cincinnati is worth $12m a year, which one do you think gets the golden ticket? At least for a conference like the big 12 was last year that's more in "survival mode" than "we really want to see your median SAT scores of incoming students before we make our final decision" mode. The Pac is still not in survival mode, so they won't add Boise today. A couple more defections should get them there, though.

(02-12-2023 01:42 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-12-2023 01:28 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  Media companies aren't dumb enough to look at the # of TVs in a market & give a conference credit for them. Pac is desperately trying to assert that SMU = Dallas or Cal = Bay Area or SD St = San Diego. If things worked that way the AAC would be among the most valuable conferences.

Which schools are going to play these Friday night games? Will that push schools to the Big 12 when they realize each school will have at least 1 home & 1 away Friday night game? Or do the schools want the Friday games for some reason? I think there would be riot at Big Ten or SEC schools if they all played 2 Friday games a season, not including the Friday after Thanksgiving.

# of TVs is not in and of itself required, but it certainly doesn't hurt. And a school like SMU that has a long track record of success, albeit decades ago? That demonstrates that they can capture a lot of those TVs when they're relevant. Get them on WFAA and in the Dallas Morning News every single day with a constant barrage of positive news and a whole lot more people will start caring about them. And I don't think it really matters if it's the big 12 or the Pac 12. It's not the SEC, but it's a whole lot better than the AAC. If I'm a fan, I'd rather go watch SMU play Washington or Oregon than most big 12 schools, anyway.

I'm not aware of anyone who thinks of SMU as a successful athletic school. Do newspapers even have sports beat reporters anymore? I thought SMU was a rich kid country club school - the general public really never supports those kinds of schools unless they win a ton like Duke or USC.

(02-12-2023 01:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-12-2023 01:32 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(02-12-2023 01:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

I don't think Boise ever was ahead of Cincy or Houston in conference realignment. Boise has 3 strikes - essentially impossible to overcome all 3:

1. Far, far away from all the other teams
2. Very small market
3. Low academic ranking

Very hard to overcome all 3.

From 2006 to 2014 they WON 3 Fiesta Bowls. ESPN loves them. They were a Football Gonzaga there for a while. They could be that again, too. I know that networks don't completely control realignment, but if ESPN and Fox think that Boise is worth $30m a year to a conference while Cincinnati is worth $12m a year, which one do you think gets the golden ticket? At least for a conference like the big 12 was last year that's more in "survival mode" than "we really want to see your median SAT scores of incoming students before we make our final decision" mode. The Pac is still not in survival mode, so they won't add Boise today. A couple more defections should get them there, though.

I think you greatly overrate Boise's popularity & value. They have been repeatedly passed over. You can't be a football Gonzaga in a real conference either. Perhaps Boise's best value to be an outsider that tries hard.

(02-12-2023 01:32 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(02-12-2023 01:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

I don't think Boise ever was ahead of Cincy or Houston in conference realignment. Boise has 3 strikes - essentially impossible to overcome all 3:

1. Far, far away from all the other teams
2. Very small market
3. Low academic ranking

Very hard to overcome all 3.

2. Boise State have two tv markets actually if you count Spokane's market? Boise is at 237,446 while Spokane is at 229,071. That does not include all the other towns around the city. The Boise's metro is at 764,718 and is like 1 million for cable subscribers. Idiots at networks can't count about how many would be watching and tv sets in households. Spokane's metro is at 593,466 plus the cable subscribers that includes northern Idaho which is Boise State blue sea there, eastern Washington is mainly sea of blue for Boise as they ate away from Washington State's tv market. So adding Boise State to the PAC 12 would keep them out of the Big 12's hands to eat away from their market there.

(02-12-2023 01:32 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(02-12-2023 01:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

I don't think Boise ever was ahead of Cincy or Houston in conference realignment. Boise has 3 strikes - essentially impossible to overcome all 3:

1. Far, far away from all the other teams
2. Very small market
3. Low academic ranking

Very hard to overcome all 3.

The notion that Houston was behind Boise is plain silly.The big12 lost the city of Houston, when OU and UT announced they were moving to the SEC. The big12 needed presence in the 4th largest city. Houston was a must have for the big12.

Secondly, there is this narrative that Houston got in because of politics, that’s being bandied about by distractors in the inter webs. It’s true that Houston has support from its billionaire benefactor and some politicians ,but in this case , Houston was a no brainer.

Third, and most importantly, the big12 interest in Houston surged days after the Dallas morning news reported that the pac12 had seriously considered Houston and TCU for expansion. USC had reportedly vetoed the whole thing. This was also a defensive posture for the big12,

(02-12-2023 01:49 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  I'm not aware of anyone who thinks of SMU as a successful athletic school. Do newspapers even have sports beat reporters anymore? I thought SMU was a rich kid country club school - the general public really never supports those kinds of schools unless they win a ton like Duke or USC.

They are a rich kid country club school and thats what the Pac 12 schools want to be aligned with. They dont want to be aligned with Boise State Community College and Fresno State Community College.

(02-12-2023 01:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

Yeah, UH sucks. Who needs the Houston market when they just lost OUT? And basketball...what's that?

10 years ago Boise was a shoe-in over UH. Today? They're about the same, but Houston's geographical advantage trumps Boise's distant location. I was talking about this last night with a Cincinnati fan. 10 years ago, Boise easily beats out Cincinnati, too. As a g5 you can't control the timing of P5 expansion, you just have to be ready and available to capitalize on the opportunity.

Boise never made the grade. Academics just trumped the fact that they have been the most successful G5 and a really good TV draw for a G5. They not only didn't make the Big 12's final 11 in 2015-16, they didn't even rate a comment like UNLV and SDSU did (commissioner made some comment about them growing their program might warrant future consideration).

(02-12-2023 01:28 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  Media companies aren't dumb enough to look at the # of TVs in a market & give a conference credit for them. Pac is desperately trying to assert that SMU = Dallas or Cal = Bay Area or SD St = San Diego. If things worked that way the AAC would be among the most valuable conferences.

Which schools are going to play these Friday night games? Will that push schools to the Big 12 when they realize each school will have at least 1 home & 1 away Friday night game? Or do the schools want the Friday games for some reason? I think there would be riot at Big Ten or SEC schools if they all played 2 Friday games a season, not including the Friday after Thanksgiving.

That may be part of the reason for SDSU and SMU, so that nobody has to play more than 1 Friday night game.

(02-10-2023 11:36 AM)Comet Wrote:  "Neither would be offered full revenue shares, at least initially, according to sources"

If the Big 12 is seriously considering SDSU at all, I'd be careful if I were the PAC.

I do not think that he Big 12 has SDSU on their radar. In the Big 12 world, Boise St. and Memphis make more sense, but they will first try to pull from current PAC12. Probably does not happen, but could depending on the PAC's new media deal.

(02-10-2023 11:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:38 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  John Canzano Feb 8th 2023:

What you need to know:

• The Pac-12 is on a mission to replace the football inventory lost by the UCLA/USC defection to the Big Ten. That’s 23 combined football games and a pile of men’s basketball games.

• Adding San Diego State would get the Pac-12 back into Southern California and regain 1.13 million television households.

• Kliavkoff met in December with officials at San Diego State, a conference source told me. A 45-minute meeting between the sides took place in the time around Oregon’s Dec. 28 appearance in the Holiday Bowl, I’m told.

• Adding SMU would bring the Dallas TV market with it. That’s 2.96 million TV homes.

• SMU + San Diego State = 4.1 million combined TV households. That will be attractive to media partners. But after the dust settles, the Pac-12 would still have ~2.6 million fewer television homes than it did before the departures of USC/UCLA.

• The Big Ten will have 33.9 million TV homes after USC and UCLA join. The ACC has 28.3 million and the SEC’s looming expansion (Texas & OU) will raise that conference to 22.4 million TV homes. The Big 12 will swell to 15.1 million homes after its oncoming expansion.

• Would the Pac-12 expand beyond 12 members? It’s possible, depending on how motivated the conference is to add extra inventory and TV homes. The problem becomes finding no-brainer candidates who fit the geography and the conference’s academic profile.

• I’m told, per a source, that one of the media-rights partners the Pac-12 is engaged with is looking for “some tonnage.” The unnamed entity would like to beef up the inventory. This sounds a lot like Amazon, which needs content for the sports app it floated a while ago.

• ESPN and Amazon are the likely Pac-12 media-rights partners. FOX is out. I think that the ramp-up in expansion talk this week signals that the conference is wrapping up the media-rights negotiation. I expect the Pac-12 to have something to talk about before the conference basketball tournaments in Las Vegas next month.

• Fresno State has had “short interactions” with the Pac-12, per a well-placed conference source. No Kliavkoff visit yet, though. The Central Valley of California includes 2.3 million TV homes. That’s attractive. But Fresno’s close proximity to the Bay Area may make Stanford and Cal uneasy.

• Boise State doesn’t sit in a big TV market. There are only 517,000 television households in the entire state of Idaho. But TV partners (FOX, CBS) have a late-night love affair with that blue football field. ESPN may like the Broncos, too, but I wonder if some Pac-12 schools who compete vs. BSU for recruits would veto this one.

• UNLV is an interesting candidate for the Pac-12. The TV market only includes 757,840 households, but it’s a rapidly growing region that includes an NFL stadium and a sea of potential gaming sponsorship opportunities. If adding more football inventory is the Pac-12’s biggest mission, the Rebels become a candidate.

• Academic profile will be a consideration for any addition. The presidents and chancellors in the Pac-12 have never viewed UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State as academic peers. Would they start now? This feels like an obstacle for all three. SMU and San Diego State fit much better.

• I wonder if the Big 12 would look hard at Fresno State and Boise State as future expansion additions. Doing so, would add 2.8 million total TV homes and get Brett Yormark’s conference into that “fourth window” (Pacific Time Zone) he likes to talk about. I think both schools would prefer to be in the Pac-12, but the Big 12 isn’t a bad fallback for either. Keep an eye out there.

Link
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...n-ramps-up

Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State are peers with the likes of SMU, San Diego State, Oregon State and Washington State. If academics is the case? SMU and San Diego State would not be invited either.

SMU is # 70ish Nationally - good try!

(02-10-2023 12:25 PM)Realigned Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:33 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  John Wilner Feb 9th 2023:

The Pac-12 is inching closer toward remaining a 12-school conference following the departures of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten in the summer of 2024. The university presidents discussed SMU and San Diego State as expansion candidates during a meeting last week and approved commissioner George Kliavkoff taking the next step in the complicated process of adding membership, according to sources with knowledge of the meeting. Sources emphasized that the approval was informal in nature — the presidents did not vote to add specific schools — but expansion is viewed as highly likely. Kliavkoff attended an SMU basketball game on Wednesday night as part of a campus visit, according to the Dallas Morning News. It is not known if other schools were discussed last week during the Pac-12 presidents’ quarterly meeting, held at Arizona State.

Expansion is part of a complicated three-step process in which the Pac-12 must negotiate a new media rights contract with network partners; the schools must agree to sign their media rights over to the conference; and invitations to new members must be extended on a formal basis. The Pac-12 has been negotiating a new media agreement since July. Kliavkoff has said that process would come first, followed by the grant-of-rights piece and then expansion.

But the three tracks were expected to unfold concurrently, sources said, with the conference informing its media partners of expansion plans during contract negotiations and prior to issuing formal invitations. Under Pac-12 bylaws, expansion requires a three-fourths vote of the presidents, meaning eight of the 10 schools would have to approve any new members. (USC and UCLA will not participate in expansion proceedings during their final 18 months in the conference.)

SMU and San Diego State have been obvious candidates all along. Neither would be offered full revenue shares, at least initially, according to sources. Each school is attractive to the Pac-12 for a variety of reasons, including the inventory of games they would add.

As a 10-team conference, the Pac-12 would have approximately 65 football games available to its media partners, assuming each team played nine conference games and two non-conference home games every season.

As a 12-team league, the Pac-12 would have approximately 78 games available (assuming two non-conference home games per team). Those additional 13 games provide valuable inventory, especially if media partners are interested in weekly programming for Friday nights. (With 10 members, each team would have to play more often on Fridays.)

In realignment — whether the topic is expansion or media rights — nothing is guaranteed until deals are sealed. But given the increasing likelihood of Pac-12 expansion, the Hotline presents a brief overview of the top targets.


SAN DIEGO STATE
Location: San Diego
Type: Public
Undergraduate enrollment: 36,000 (approx)
Endowment: $350 million (approx)
Research level: R2 (second-highest designation)
U.S. News ranking: 151st in national universities
Media market: 1.13 million homes (per Nielsen/2021 DMA)
Conference: Mountain West
Presidential fact: SDSU president Adela de la Torre grew up in the Bay Area and owns three degrees from Cal.
School fact: Last year, California passed a law allowing California State Universities to offer independent doctorates in Public Health, an important step for CSU campuses to bolster their academic bona fides. (Previously, CSUs were allowed to confer doctorates only in partnership with private colleges or University of California schools.) The change is viewed as an important step for SDSU in becoming an R1 research school.
Football facts: SDSU is a founding member of the Mountain West in 1998. The Aztecs have won at least 10 games in five of the past six seasons (excluding 2020) and have regularly beaten Pac-12 opponents under coaches Rocky Long and Brady Hoke. SDSU football alumni include Marshall Faulk and Joe Gibbs. In 2022, the Aztecs opened Snapdragon Stadium, which has a capacity of 35,000 but can expand to hold 55,000.
(Endowment source: National Association of College and University Business Officers)

SMU
Location: Dallas
Type: Private
Undergraduate enrollment: 6,800 (approx)
Endowment: $2.0 billion (approx)
Research level: R2 (second-highest designation)
U.S. News ranking: 72nd in national universities
Media market: 2.96 million homes (per Nielsen/2021 DMA)
Conference: American Athletic
Presidential fact: SMU president Gerald Turner is a former chair of the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics.
School fact: SMU is affiliated with the United Methodist Church (UMC) but, in 2019, moved to “update its governance documents to make it clear that SMU is solely maintained and controlled by its Board as the ultimate authority for the University,” according to a statement from Turner. The UMC fought the move, but a Dallas judge ruled in favor of SMU two years later.
Football facts: SMU has a strong football history but is the only school to receive the death penalty from the NCAA (in the late 1980s). The list of famous football alumni includes Doak Walker, Don Meredith and Eric Dickerson. Since the collapse of the Southwest Conference, the Mustangs have been members of the WAC, Conference USA and the American. They struggled for traction but won 10 games in 2019 (under Sonny Dykes) and have been bowl-eligible for four consecutive years.


Link
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/02/09/p...p-targets/

There may be 3M homes in the Dallas media market, but a very small % are interested in SMU.

DFW is projected to be the 3rd largest market by 2030/32.

(02-10-2023 01:00 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:49 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:43 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:38 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  John Canzano Feb 8th 2023:

What you need to know:

• The Pac-12 is on a mission to replace the football inventory lost by the UCLA/USC defection to the Big Ten. That’s 23 combined football games and a pile of men’s basketball games.

• Adding San Diego State would get the Pac-12 back into Southern California and regain 1.13 million television households.

• Kliavkoff met in December with officials at San Diego State, a conference source told me. A 45-minute meeting between the sides took place in the time around Oregon’s Dec. 28 appearance in the Holiday Bowl, I’m told.

• Adding SMU would bring the Dallas TV market with it. That’s 2.96 million TV homes.

• SMU + San Diego State = 4.1 million combined TV households. That will be attractive to media partners. But after the dust settles, the Pac-12 would still have ~2.6 million fewer television homes than it did before the departures of USC/UCLA.

• The Big Ten will have 33.9 million TV homes after USC and UCLA join. The ACC has 28.3 million and the SEC’s looming expansion (Texas & OU) will raise that conference to 22.4 million TV homes. The Big 12 will swell to 15.1 million homes after its oncoming expansion.

• Would the Pac-12 expand beyond 12 members? It’s possible, depending on how motivated the conference is to add extra inventory and TV homes. The problem becomes finding no-brainer candidates who fit the geography and the conference’s academic profile.

• I’m told, per a source, that one of the media-rights partners the Pac-12 is engaged with is looking for “some tonnage.” The unnamed entity would like to beef up the inventory. This sounds a lot like Amazon, which needs content for the sports app it floated a while ago.

• ESPN and Amazon are the likely Pac-12 media-rights partners. FOX is out. I think that the ramp-up in expansion talk this week signals that the conference is wrapping up the media-rights negotiation. I expect the Pac-12 to have something to talk about before the conference basketball tournaments in Las Vegas next month.

• Fresno State has had “short interactions” with the Pac-12, per a well-placed conference source. No Kliavkoff visit yet, though. The Central Valley of California includes 2.3 million TV homes. That’s attractive. But Fresno’s close proximity to the Bay Area may make Stanford and Cal uneasy.

• Boise State doesn’t sit in a big TV market. There are only 517,000 television households in the entire state of Idaho. But TV partners (FOX, CBS) have a late-night love affair with that blue football field. ESPN may like the Broncos, too, but I wonder if some Pac-12 schools who compete vs. BSU for recruits would veto this one.

• UNLV is an interesting candidate for the Pac-12. The TV market only includes 757,840 households, but it’s a rapidly growing region that includes an NFL stadium and a sea of potential gaming sponsorship opportunities. If adding more football inventory is the Pac-12’s biggest mission, the Rebels become a candidate.

• Academic profile will be a consideration for any addition. The presidents and chancellors in the Pac-12 have never viewed UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State as academic peers. Would they start now? This feels like an obstacle for all three. SMU and San Diego State fit much better.

• I wonder if the Big 12 would look hard at Fresno State and Boise State as future expansion additions. Doing so, would add 2.8 million total TV homes and get Brett Yormark’s conference into that “fourth window” (Pacific Time Zone) he likes to talk about. I think both schools would prefer to be in the Pac-12, but the Big 12 isn’t a bad fallback for either. Keep an eye out there.

Link
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...n-ramps-up

Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State are peers with the likes of SMU, San Diego State, Oregon State and Washington State. If academics is the case? SMU and San Diego State would not be invited either.

That's not true. If we're going by undergrad rankings, SMU would be the 4th highest ranked Pac-12 school after Stanford, Cal, and Washington. San Diego State is tied in the US News rankings with Oregon State and higher ranked than Washington State. All of those schools are ranked MUCH higher than Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State.

SMU isn't a research powerhouse like how the Pac-12 has looked at candidates in the past, but the issue is that there isn't a research powerhouse out there available that brings enough athletic value. (Rice has the academic side, but not the athletic side.) In essence, the Pac-12 used to apply Big Ten-level academic standards, so under that framework, SMU wouldn't fit. However, my belief is that going forward, the Pac-12 is going to apply ACC-level academic standards (where they're as open to highly-ranked undergraduate schools as much as highly-ranked graduate programs), in which case, SMU pretty perfectly fits that academic profile. If the Pac-12 is serious about wanting to expand, then they can't apply Big Ten academic standards anymore... but applying ACC academic standards definitely brings up some viable candidates that would be conceivably acceptable to schools like Stanford, Cal and Washington. (Everyone needs to remember that Washington is every bit as snobby on academics as Stanford and Cal.)

SDSU and SMU resolve PAC expansion to 12 members.

I don’t believe that there is a reason for 14 members, but if push-came-to-shove the PAC would probably start vetting Tulane and Fresno State. Boise State and UNLV open discussions with two strikes against them…academic standards and smaller markets.

Honestly if given a choice Fresno would probably prefer Big12 to PAC. I don’t know if we will have a choice however. I doubt if the PAC offers Fresno but if they were smart they would cut off the Big 12 having much in the way of CA inroads. Then again not much the PAC-12 Presidents have done looks smart.

SMU would probably prefer the Big 12 for obvious reasons, but TCU is not going to let that happen. Nothing wrong in conference realignment with your second choice!

(02-10-2023 12:33 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 12:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-10-2023 11:56 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  These Pac 12 writers love to give credence to "more G5s to Big 12" talk.

It ain't happening.

It seemed that Boise State was the clear number 4 spot as to pair with BYU than over Houston. I still shaking my head that politics got in the way again with the Big 12 to get another Texas school in.

To you, maybe.

1. Texas is a huge state. The mileage from Houston to Dallas is longer than the mileage from DC to NYC. El Paso to Beaumont is farther than El Paso to Los Angeles.

2. Of the original Big 12 schools, A&M and Texas were the closest to Houston. Baylor, Tech and TCU are all at least twice as close to Dallas as Houston and have at least twice as many alums in the Metroplex as Houston. In other words, there was a huge gaping hole the Big 12 had (in terms of fan interest/recruiting/exposure) in the 4th largest city in the nation.

3. You make it sound like political charity. Houston has won a NY6 bowl more recently than Boise. Made a Final Four in 2020. Has far superior academics.

And CA isn’t? The mileage from San Diego to Fresno is about 100 miles more than Houston to Dallas and it has the countries 2nd largest Metropolis sitting between them. Fresno is in the middle of the state. It’s another Austin to Dallas run to get to Sacramento.

Yet that doesn’t stop Texans from saying add SDSU and you will have CA covered.