the one seed is remote. with 6 games to play, we are two games behind Louisiana and effectively 3 games behind So Miss - given our h2h loss. We would have to go 6-0 with USM going -3-3 or Louisiana going 4-2 (loss to us). possible but not probable.

The two seed will be tough, but possible. We need to go 6-0, with Louisiana going 4-2 with losses to us, and USM.

The three seed is well within reach. Same record as Marshall but we are ahead given the h2h. We can go 5-1 with a win over Marshall, and secure the 3 seed. Could get the 3 with 4-2, but we have to beat Marshall.

The four seed - where we will fall if we go 4-2 with a loss to Marshall.

If we go 3-3, the four seed will be in jeopardy as we leave the door open for those behind us.

Thank you for this break down! I think we have 3 wins pretty much locked up. A fourth win i think is likely and a fifth win is possible. I dont think we have win out. If we do, that is amazing momentum heading into the tournament. I want to see momentum and confidence, particularly in our shooters heading into the tournament. We are a dangerous team if we can shoot 35%+ from 3.

I think come tournament time we will HAVE to be able to shoot the 3. Teams will likely play zone and pack it in. This is especially true when refs swallow the whistle. We have to be able to shoot teams out of the zone.

I guess they correlate pretty closely with just six games left, but really I think winning the key head-to-head games has a bigger impact than the overall record.

As long as we do at least 3-3 (not saying that's a given, but any worse than that and we don't deserve it anyway), I think ODU is really the only team from behind that could catch us since we still have a game against them. (App and LA Monroe theoretically in the mix, but I just don't look at those teams and think 5-1 down the stretch is realistic) If we beat ODU then we're 3 ahead + tiebreaker so we're fine for top four seed pending a miraculous end-of-season for those other teams in the middle. If we beat Marshall, even just a 3-3 finish puts us more-likely-than-not to finish ahead of them. They'd have to go 4-1 in their other five games. Beat them and go 4-2 instead, and then they have to win out. Beating Louisiana puts us 1 game back with the tiebreaker. So even if we go 4-2 overall, including beating them, means they have to go 3-2 including a game @ So. Miss. 5-1 including beating them means they have to go 4-1 including a game @ So. Miss.

also of note...Marshall is on the road 4/6 games...JMU is home 4/6 games

Yes, the 4 game home stretch to end the season is beneficial. Other teams will falter on the road in the last couple of weeks.

What can be very interesting is JMU winning the next 2 road games (they will be favored to do so) and coming out of the 4 game road trip undefeated.

If things go as expected this week, JMU will have a chance to sneak up to #2 with a win over Louisiana who looks like the best team in the Sun Belt to me now that I’ve seen them play. They have a dominant Big man and shoot 40% from downtown as a team. Pick your poison.