(12-31-2022 02:49 PM)Porcine Wrote:  

(12-30-2022 08:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-30-2022 06:57 AM)schmolik Wrote:  The Big 12 is just 1-5 in bowl games this year. That doesn't really make TCU look good right now (or Oklahoma, although they did almost beat a clearly better opponent by record). The SEC is 1-3 but has plenty of chances ahead of them to improve that record.

The Pac 12 is 3-1. Last year they went woe and 5!

IMO, opt-outs are a big thing here -and by that I mean guys who have either entered the portal or are sitting out for draft or other reasons. For example, in the Alamo Bowl, Texas had 13 such opt-outs while Washington had only three.

The bigger brand names are likely to have more opt-outs, which weakens the team for the game. Even in the OU vs FSU game, a battle of two big brands, OU had 12 opt-outs compared to 7 for FSU.

Of course, quantity isn't everything, if a star QB opts out, that's just one guy but obviously a very important one. But these numbers are IMO indicative of overall weakening of a team for a bowl game.

In the Las Vegas Bowl, Florida IIRC had 9 opt-outs compared to just 3 for Oregon State.

Also, opt outs can change the character of a team even if they are equal. For example, in today's Duke Mayo Bowl, both NC State and Maryland have a ton of optouts. So while that means both are even on that count, it is doubtful that either team will really be the team that earned the bowl bid. It's like two new teams playing.

So these games aren't IMO really indicative of conference strength, not the way they used to be.

I'm getting some my data (not the Florida game) from this website, which tracks this stuff. Here, it shows that Arkansas had 14 opt-outs compared to just 4 for Kansas, making Arkansas's win impressive, IMO:

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/f...berty-bowl

I think we went into that game with 51 players.