The Big Ten and SEC seem to think so, otherwise would not they not have grabbed more? Kansas is a valuable basketball commodity sitting between SEC and Big Ten territory, it seems if they wanted to expand past 16 they would have been taken.

Another danger for these conferences, if they expand too far out of their footprint would not they alienate the members on the edges? I think it would be difficult to please everybody.

16 is a number thrown around probably due to the NCAA BB Tournament (4 16 team regionals). It pertains to 64 schools being the critical mass of schools that could break away fully from the NCAA and start their own league. It is also a number that sounds good in terms of conference divisions with interdivisional play.

Whether to his a legit number really depends on where you believe to he optimum future of college sports are headed.

Looking at pro sports as a guide, there is a maximum of 30 -32 teams in the nation. So if the BIG and SEC wanted to work together. They are already at the target number. However unlike the pro teams they are not completely distributed in the major population areas like the pro clubs, plus their are some major brands that are not currently in the P2. So their target numbers are likely between 16 and 20. 16 if they decide to indulge in form relegation for higher value brands. 20 if they are stuck with certain underperformers.

The SEC and B1G will be at 16 members because that is what makes the most money given the current environment. IMO - If Notre Dame were interested in joining their conference, then both the B1G or SEC would immediately expand beyond 16 members. Although media companies generally will pay for more content, they don’t want to encourage conference consolidation because they lose leverage with fewer content producers…that’s one reason why conference expansion has been slow and piecemeal. Finally, FBS conferences haven’t yet determined how to divvy-up the new pot-of-gold from the CFP expansion. If CFP revenues disproportionately advantage certain conferences, then expansion is back on the front-burner.

Bottom-line, there is nothing magic about 16. The economics will change over time, and conference membership will adjust.

I hope so.

I would be happy as a clam if the SEC and B1G didn't expand any further and left the ACC alone.

And you could add a couple of B12 teams to the ACC to get to 16

Then the P10 and B12 could consolidate to 16 teams and we'd have our 4 x16 format that looks so nice.

But I don't expect any of that to happen.

First of all the SEC and B1G will probably pick apart the ACC leaving the left overs for the B12.

Creating some 20 24 28 30 or 32 team monstrosities.

But my preference is for the ACC to not lose any schools.

(12-19-2022 01:33 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  The SEC and B1G will be at 16 members because that is what makes the most money given the current environment. IMO - If Notre Dame were interested in joining their conference, then both the B1G or SEC would immediately expand beyond 16 members. Although media companies generally will pay for more content, they don’t want to encourage conference consolidation because they lose leverage with fewer content producers…that’s one reason why conference expansion has been slow and piecemeal. Finally, FBS conferences haven’t yet determined how to divvy-up the new pot-of-gold from the CFP expansion. If CFP revenues disproportionately advantage certain conferences, then expansion is back on the front-burner.

Bottom-line, there is nothing magic about 16. The economics will change over time, and conference membership will adjust.

This the part of your post I agree with. This is the gestalt. The rest is debatable perspectives.

Florida State, Washington, Kansas, and North Carolina are also accretive, and they solve some composition and balance issues that the Big 10 and SEC may face.

Washington and Kansas each add over half a billion in valuation. Florida State adds ad revenue and solves scheduling issues. UNC adds a the top draw in one of a few remaining states untapped by the Big 10 or SEC. UNC's value depends upon whether basketball is freed from the NCAA.

Now outside of those the case dwindles for more SEC and ACC additions for simple monetary and niche reasons. Defensive additions are a a different matter. I'd say 18 is still quite likely for both the Big 10 and SEC with some combination of the schools above.

Notre Dame adds enough that the traveling partner could be any school which has a valuation over 300 million. If the Big 10 adds Washington and Oregon they will have the top 4 values out of the PAC with UW clearly being #1. I think they took UCLA and USC to make it happen, and to show the PAC that a rebuild would be majorly handicapped without Los Angeles. By taking the best market before they take the best value they ended any substantive rebuild.

IMO, if the ACC did relinquish FSU and added either USF (better academics) or UCF (higher sports profile) to Miami and moved to 18 as well with Baylor, T.C.U., Cincinnati and West Virginia you would not only add revenue (solid mid tier inventory boost) and markets, but would be able to cement yourselves as the #3 conference and a survivor of what is transpiring. The SEC would simply move to 18 with FSU and Kansas and the Big 10's options then would be only to the West. Game over!

How and Why? Florida State will want SEC / Big 10 money to compete with Florida. That irritation will never go away. North Carolina has their conference. Money is not as big a lure for them unless things look dire. If they trade access to more money for control and tradition the Big 10 has no real targets that add value that they can find in the ACC, especially if FSU is in the SEC. ESPN has always held an interest in Kansas. They have held generous Tier 3 contracts with them.

If the SEC picks up Florida State and Kansas then ESPN gains full rights to Kansas and loses nothing. If the ACC adds the 4 schools I suggested ESPN gains a back door into Ohio, adds old Big East interest with the Eers, and shores up two more key brands in Texas. They win, North Carolina wins, everyone in the ACC gets a bump, the Big 12 is damaged, and the PAC 12 is left dead on the road.

If the Big 10 is limited to a profitable 18 and the SEC as well we will keep a P4. The ACC will very much be secure and the New Big 12 and PAC will rebuild the 4th conference.

If the ACC thinks FSU is as good as out the door then go ahead and expand with UCF and USF, negotiate a buyout between the ACC/SEC/ESPN. The thing is though, I don’t think FSU is looking for a way out, but would rather better the ACC. I don’t think you flush 30 years of history down the toilet so easily and I don’t think the ACC will let FSU walk so easily. If the ACC expanding with so and so makes FSU stick around, I think you make it happen, it’s part of the reason why UL was added over UConn and it’s been a great move, easy call.

I hope the ACC is considering things from a perspective that traveling in the near future may be heavily restrictive or very expensive. This is all political planning, but should be in the equation. The safe move would be to stay in ones region, though it may not be lucrative.

(12-19-2022 04:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-19-2022 01:33 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  The SEC and B1G will be at 16 members because that is what makes the most money given the current environment. IMO - If Notre Dame were interested in joining their conference, then both the B1G or SEC would immediately expand beyond 16 members. Although media companies generally will pay for more content, they don’t want to encourage conference consolidation because they lose leverage with fewer content producers…that’s one reason why conference expansion has been slow and piecemeal. Finally, FBS conferences haven’t yet determined how to divvy-up the new pot-of-gold from the CFP expansion. If CFP revenues disproportionately advantage certain conferences, then expansion is back on the front-burner.

Bottom-line, there is nothing magic about 16. The economics will change over time, and conference membership will adjust.

This the part of your post I agree with. This is the gestalt. The rest is debatable perspectives.

Florida State, Washington, Kansas, and North Carolina are also accretive, and they solve some composition and balance issues that the Big 10 and SEC may face.

Washington and Kansas each add over half a billion in valuation. Florida State adds ad revenue and solves scheduling issues. UNC adds a the top draw in one of a few remaining states untapped by the Big 10 or SEC. UNC's value depends upon whether basketball is freed from the NCAA.

Now outside of those the case dwindles for more SEC and ACC additions for simple monetary and niche reasons. Defensive additions are a a different matter. I'd say 18 is still quite likely for both the Big 10 and SEC with some combination of the schools above.

Notre Dame adds enough that the traveling partner could be any school which has a valuation over 300 million. If the Big 10 adds Washington and Oregon they will have the top 4 values out of the PAC with UW clearly being #1. I think they took UCLA and USC to make it happen, and to show the PAC that a rebuild would be majorly handicapped without Los Angeles. By taking the best market before they take the best value they ended any substantive rebuild.

IMO, if the ACC did relinquish FSU and added either USF (better academics) or UCF (higher sports profile) to Miami and moved to 18 as well with Baylor, T.C.U., Cincinnati and West Virginia you would not only add revenue (solid mid tier inventory boost) and markets, but would be able to cement yourselves as the #3 conference and a survivor of what is transpiring. The SEC would simply move to 18 with FSU and Kansas and the Big 10's options then would be only to the West. Game over!

How and Why? Florida State will want SEC / Big 10 money to compete with Florida. That irritation will never go away. North Carolina has their conference. Money is not as big a lure for them unless things look dire. If they trade access to more money for control and tradition the Big 10 has no real targets that add value that they can find in the ACC, especially if FSU is in the SEC. ESPN has always held an interest in Kansas. They have held generous Tier 3 contracts with them.

If the SEC picks up Florida State and Kansas then ESPN gains full rights to Kansas and loses nothing. If the ACC adds the 4 schools I suggested ESPN gains a back door into Ohio, adds old Big East interest with the Eers, and shores up two more key brands in Texas. They win, North Carolina wins, everyone in the ACC gets a bump, the Big 12 is damaged, and the PAC 12 is left dead on the road.

If the Big 10 is limited to a profitable 18 and the SEC as well we will keep a P4. The ACC will very much be secure and the New Big 12 and PAC will rebuild the 4th conference.

It would be cheaper for ESPN to just pay each ACC school another $30 Million a year with escalators than to "loan" Florida State enough money to buy their way out of the ACC.