(12-19-2022 11:21 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  Just another casualty of a cliff too many choose to ignore.

https://www.capturehighered.com/how-to-c...hic-cliff/

https://www.chronicle.com/article/will-y...phic-cliff

Thanks, that's very interesting.

FWIW, I have worked at a small school in Louisiana. We had a big drop in enrollment between 2008 and 2014, as budget cuts were instituted and admission standards rose. There was talk of a financial emergency and the survival of the school was in question.

But since 2015-2016, enrollment has steadily creeped up. Not dramatically but steady, and even did so during the two covid-19 years. The school is probably better-funded now than it has been in 15-20 years.

U of North Dakota had its "jeopardy" moments in 2016-ish. Fortunately it, in that era, had an acting president that was a former Governor and business owner and budget hawk. His successor was a former CFO of a Fortune 200 company (General Mills). They cleaned up the physical campus and the books. They trimmed the programmatic dead wood. UND had positive enrollment growth this fall. And it has opened a new Education building and Business building in the last half-decade, not to mention an indoor facility for football with phase II of that coming. And at least half of on-campus housing is less than ten years old.

It happened because something other than lifetime-academics were in charge for a while: Lifetime-academics tend to whistle past the graveyard when tough fiscal decisions are needed.

NDSU is now facing its "UND in 2016" moment. (They ignored it and pretended it would take care of itself back then.) What would've been painful (UND, 2016) is going to look draconian. They're talking consolidation of colleges and programs disappearing. As a ND resident this is not good for the State or the workforce needs.

Birm-So isn't the first and won't be the last.

(12-19-2022 12:43 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  U of North Dakota had its "jeopardy" moments in 2016-ish. Fortunately it, in that era, had an acting president that was a former Governor and business owner and budget hawk. His successor was a former CFO of a Fortune 200 company (General Mills). They cleaned up the physical campus and the books. They trimmed the programmatic dead wood. UND had positive enrollment growth this fall. And it has opened a new Education building and Business building in the last half-decade, not to mention an indoor facility for football with phase II of that coming. And at least half of on-campus housing is less than ten years old.

It happened because something other than lifetime-academics were in charge for a while: Lifetime-academics tend to whistle past the graveyard when tough fiscal decisions are needed.

NDSU is now facing its "UND in 2016" moment. (They ignored it and pretended it would take care of itself back then.) What would've been painful (UND, 2016) is going to look draconian. They're talking consolidation of colleges and programs disappearing. As a ND resident this is not good for the State or the workforce needs.

Birm-So isn't the first and won't be the last.

The problem is, you could jeoperdized your R1 status. You have to look at something like can disciplines be merged into one department like science? Anything that is earth science along with chemistry, and geology can be in one department because you be studying the same things. Life science like health, Zoology, Biology, etc can be another department.

(12-19-2022 04:07 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is, you could jeoperdized your R1 status.

NDSU is well aware of the jeopardy their (lack of) fiscal management has put themselves in. The chair and the dean I know each mentioned it and its ramifications.

Side note: UND would also be R1 but it doesn't get as much ag research funding from the State. If UND got the same it would be R1. Two "official" R1s in a state this size would be remarkable. UND will just have to live with the Medical and Law schools for now.

Seems noteworthy that their football coach just left for a school (Austin College) that hasn't had a winning record since 2000.

(12-19-2022 12:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-19-2022 11:21 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  Just another casualty of a cliff too many choose to ignore.

https://www.capturehighered.com/how-to-c...hic-cliff/

https://www.chronicle.com/article/will-y...phic-cliff

Thanks, that's very interesting.

FWIW, I have worked at a small school in Louisiana. We had a big drop in enrollment between 2008 and 2014, as budget cuts were instituted and admission standards rose. There was talk of a financial emergency and the survival of the school was in question.

But since 2015-2016, enrollment has steadily creeped up. Not dramatically but steady, and even did so during the two covid-19 years. The school is probably better-funded now than it has been in 15-20 years.

I used to work for a two-year school some years ago. Enrollment had been slipping gradually for some time (and apparently well before 2010 when I started). Despite funding challenges from the county and state sources, it had articulation agreements with a number of four-year schools that kept things stable. I left in 2016 for another school, but not long after, many/most of those articulation agreements were gone. Not because of academic quality or integrity at the community college (though accreditation is more ruthless on two-year schools than four-year ones, imo), but because many of those four-year schools were ailing themselves and felt it was worth getting those same students through their doors first by other means than having them do half the degree at the two-year. If those tiny private four-year schools aren't doing well now, they can't wait two years for whatever population does finally make the jump to only pay for half the ride (and often with articulation agreements, there are financial incentives provided to the transfers to offset the sticker shock of paying cheap public school prices for a steep private school). To some of these schools, cut out the middle-man, and take the risk themselves. It probably won't save them, but it buys some time. Maybe enough to "merge" with a more successful school, even?

I now work in the benefits space, and on the tuition assistance side, something I'm seeing that's really unsettling I'm seeing is watching a company like Pearson Education offering "academic advising" to those nontraditional or continuing education types with less than stellar academic backgrounds. For those who need A LOT of work getting even to a foundational level, Pearson is selling coursework co-provided by a slew of these nearly (or should be) dead private schools. If the student passes, now they have transferrable credits to these random schools (their transferability to other reputable schools, though...not a lock). The courses are cheaper than area two-year schools. Community colleges are, thus, cut out. The ailing/failing four-year gets a cut. Pearson takes the big slice through the advising and co-hosting hustle. It's sleezy.

I'm not sure that "demographic cliff" is that proverbial tipping point for all of higher education. There have been so many contributing causes to what ails that sector (that whole cannibalism thing like the above has its own dark history, and goes back a ways; hard to identify one "genesis point"). I suspect there already is a work-around to it. I work in it and can attest: schools offering non-credit stuff; milking businesses of professional development dollars.

Well, Holy Names in California announced they will be closing in May of 2023. So, like I said. We will see more and more closings soon.

(12-20-2022 03:33 PM)Inkblot Wrote:  Seems noteworthy that their football coach just left for a school (Austin College) that hasn't had a winning record since 2000.

He played college ball in Texas so it isn’t totally out of the blue. But I suspect he wanted to be sure his employer exists next fall.

(12-21-2022 09:25 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Well, Holy Names in California announced they will be closing in May of 2023. So, like I said. We will see more and more closings soon.

Schools are always closing.

https://hechingerreport.org/proof-points...ince-2004/

(12-21-2022 09:25 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Well, Holy Names in California announced they will be closing in May of 2023. So, like I said. We will see more and more closings soon.

Did you get turned down by a private school that you applied to go to, DavidSt??? What is your beef with private schools??

...update / bump: looking bleaker for BSC:

BSC update 02-09-23

...the 'parallel track' status doesn't bode well at ALL for the future beyond this semester...

Hope they don't close... have lots of childhood memories going to basketball games there. Some family graduated from there as well.

(02-09-2023 09:55 AM)lion1983 Wrote:  Hope they don't close... have lots of childhood memories going to basketball games there. Some family graduated from there as well.

I have family that went there, too. Cousin-in-law’s husband played on the baseball team and was a junior when they were told BSC was dropping to D-III from D-I.

(02-09-2023 10:36 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(02-09-2023 09:55 AM)lion1983 Wrote:  Hope they don't close... have lots of childhood memories going to basketball games there. Some family graduated from there as well.

I have family that went there, too. Cousin-in-law’s husband played on the baseball team and was a junior when they were told BSC was dropping to D-III from D-I.

...yep I remember going to BSC basketball games before UAB even had a team... BSC played at the old Fair Park building (not the current 'baby coliseum' one, but the 'large expo space' where they rolled out large bleachers on each side) - also saw quite a few games at Boutwell Auditorium... when UAB cranked up, my dad got season tix to them - but still caught a BSC game or two - by then I think they had their on campus place (early 80's)...

I mean reading that update seems like things are going well for them, ie 25% increase in applications, 33% increase in yield so far this year with $45 million in pledged donations. Ha, Talk about a strange PR campaign to raise awareness about the school and get funding but if those numbers are correct something doesn’t add up about closing the school down

(12-19-2022 12:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-19-2022 11:21 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  Just another casualty of a cliff too many choose to ignore.

https://www.capturehighered.com/how-to-c...hic-cliff/

https://www.chronicle.com/article/will-y...phic-cliff

Thanks, that's very interesting.

FWIW, I have worked at a small school in Louisiana. We had a big drop in enrollment between 2008 and 2014, as budget cuts were instituted and admission standards rose. There was talk of a financial emergency and the survival of the school was in question.

But since 2015-2016, enrollment has steadily creeped up. Not dramatically but steady, and even did so during the two covid-19 years. The school is probably better-funded now than it has been in 15-20 years.

I love articles like that b/c they completely ignore immigration. The US population is still growing despite or low birth rate b/c so many want to be here. Sure, a big chunk of them immigrate illegally, but their kids will still go to college here. It's not going to be a cliff, but rather perhaps a hill. China will have a cliff though, and they're already almost upon it, because they have negative net migration and even lower birth rates than ours.

UPDATE:

Guv'nah Kay Ivey nixes any potential funding for BSC, most likely sealing the college's fate:

BSC funding looking bleak - 03-23-23

...with thanks to AssKickingChicken for the update over on BlazerTalk...

Go look at BSC’s 990 then state they should stay open.

23 music professors, no pep band, and teaching private lessons? You can’t make money on private lessons as institution.

All their athletic teams are short, too small of rosters. Track team should be near 80. They’re probably losing money on their pool. Pools cost a fortune.

(03-23-2023 11:54 PM)Pastasevensamurai Wrote:  Go look at BSC’s 990 then state they should stay open.

Nobody bailed out Judson, I didn't expect any help for Birmingham Southern. There will be more closings and eventually some of them will be small state schools. Some will be re-tasked to specific disciplines, and some merged. There is a big downsizing of higher education coming and it is demographically driven and impacted by the financial issues. So far it is small privates biting the dust.

For those paying attention the state flagship and large state schools throughout the nation are building more and more housing units for students. Why? Because the states intend to streamline undergraduates through the large state schools and use the added tuition to underwrite graduate research programs.

What's more is that thinking these schools are being targeted unfairly is recency bias by younger people who didn't know how many were created with post WWII money in the form of the GI Bill, the Pell Grant, then student loans. Small privates benefitted from these but existed already. Junior colleges became 4 year institutions and small state schools grew to G5 status from NAIA levels. Like wadis in the desert which fill only when there is rain, and return to depressions in the sand when there is little to no rain, so too are the many state schools which grew due to the return of the those who fought the war, then their children, then their grandchildren, until the birth rates fell, and ROI no longer justified the expense of an undergraduate degree unless it was in a STEM field.

It's nobody's fault, but the money and the enrollees are drying up and the political remedy is to force the enrollees they have into the oldest state schools.

(03-24-2023 12:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-23-2023 11:54 PM)Pastasevensamurai Wrote:  Go look at BSC’s 990 then state they should stay open.

Nobody bailed out Judson, I didn't expect any help for Birmingham Southern. There will be more closings and eventually some of them will be small state schools. Some will be re-tasked to specific disciplines, and some merged. There is a big downsizing of higher education coming and it is demographically driven and impacted by the financial issues. So far it is small privates biting the dust.

For those paying attention the state flagship and large state schools throughout the nation are building more and more housing units for students. Why? Because the states intend to streamline undergraduates through the large state schools and use the added tuition to underwrite graduate research programs.

What's more is that thinking these schools are being targeted unfairly is recency bias by younger people who didn't know how many were created with post WWII money in the form of the GI Bill, the Pell Grant, then student loans. Small privates benefitted from these but existed already. Junior colleges became 4 year institutions and small state schools grew to G5 status from NAIA levels. Like wadis in the desert which fill only when there is rain, and return to depressions in the sand when there is little to no rain, so too are the many state schools which grew due to the return of the those who fought the war, then their children, then their grandchildren, until the birth rates fell, and ROI no longer justified the expense of an undergraduate degree unless it was in a STEM field.

It's nobody's fault, but the money and the enrollees are drying up and the political remedy is to force the enrollees they have into the oldest state schools.

I wasn't expecting the State to step in either although I thought there was a higher chance of it than there was with Judson...assuming any of the local Legislators decided to get involved in order to "save jobs" or something of that nature.

Honestly though, if BSC can't make it then I think the only involvement we should see from the State would be purchasing the campus to either roll into the community college system or perhaps providing UAB with "off campus" facilities to provide relief for their tight spaces downtown.

Most people would probably never notice this, but UA has 2 campuses in Tuscaloosa. There's the one everyone knows about and another large tract of land nearby where a lot of the maintenance facilities and other offices that aren't necessarily connected to academics are located. I believe they also park a lot of the buses there. Frees up a lot of space and parking too...if you can send some of your employees to a separate plot of land then that's more space for students or academic buildings on the main campus.

Anyway, UAB is land-locked and they're growing enrollment too. Lots of construction in recent years so I imagine they could use some overflow space not too far away. I think the State wants UAB to be one of the few left standing when all is said and done.