(11-29-2022 07:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

(11-29-2022 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

I see it differently - I'm disappointed Ohio State didn't fall to #6. I would have them behind Alabama as "first up" if TCU or USC falters. Though these are the top six I expected.

CFP has been weird this year - LSU loses to Texas AM, a team with a national-title winning coach and tons of talent, and on the road in front of 100,000 raucous AM fans, and they drop nine spots, from 5 to 14.

Week befor elast, UCF lost to a pathetic 3-7 Navy team at home, and dropped two spots from 20 to 22.

Go figure.

As expected IMO

It would have been different had:

1. LSU won
2. tOSU beat UM handily.

Bama could have stayed in the 6 range ready to jump both UM and LSU (after losing to UGa). USC losing to ND would have taken them out as well.

Bama vs UM would have been a lot more interesting had UM lost by 2 TD. tOSU also has the implicit bias that UM doesn't have.

Top 4 win and they are in. UGA and UM are in whatever happens.

Tulane-UCF is now officially for the access slot.

I'm hoping that's the playoff as well.


Edit: just to be clear, I want USC in there because I want Caleb Williams in the playoffs.

This may have been the least suspenseful reveal show yet. Zero drama. In a way, that was a good thing as far as I was concerned, since it didn't really interfere with watching Jeopardy which was much more compelling.

(11-29-2022 07:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

I see it differently - I'm disappointed Ohio State didn't fall to #6. I would have them behind Alabama as "first up" if TCU or USC falters. Though these are the top six I expected.

Yes, #5 & #6 are the big debate. As I commented prior, my personal ranking too, has ‘Bama at #5. I actually hope the first four win their CCGs, and the fuss ends. Of the top four, only Georgia I am passionate about since I am a graduate school alumnus. Ohio State and ‘Bama fans want TCU and/or USC to lose. That’s understandable. If that doesn’t happen, they will still get to play in prime bowls.

USC may have a big challenge from Utah. TCU knocking off Kansas State is a little less than a sure thing.

(11-29-2022 07:23 PM)e-parade Wrote:  I'm hoping that's the playoff as well.


Edit: just to be clear, I want USC in there because I want Caleb Williams in the playoffs.

It’s an ideal playoff (almost) for broadcasters as well. You have a rep from the South, a B1G blueblood, a Texas rep, and a West Coast blueblood.

There is national appeal in the playoff.

(11-29-2022 07:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Tulane-UCF is now officially for the access slot.

Based on the AP and Coaches, UTSA officially got screwed. NC State over them? Troy received more votes in the AP and Coaches poll than the Wolfpack. Does the CFP Committee watch Group of 5 conferences other than the AAC? NC State lost at home to Boston College!

I would have put Ohio State number 4 and USC number 5. USC do not belong in the playoffs. They almost lost to Arizona and California for crying out loud. Both teams under .500.

(11-29-2022 07:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  CFP has been weird this year - LSU loses to Texas AM, a team with a national-title winning coach and tons of talent, and on the road in front of 100,000 raucous AM fans, and they drop nine spots, from 5 to 14.

Week befor elast, UCF lost to a pathetic 3-7 Navy team at home, and dropped two spots from 20 to 22.

Go figure.

(11-29-2022 08:16 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Tulane-UCF is now officially for the access slot.

Based on the AP and Coaches, UTSA officially got screwed. NC State over them? Troy received more votes in the AP and Coaches poll than the Wolfpack. Does the CFP Committee watch Group of 5 conferences other than the AAC? NC State lost at home to Boston College!

Bold of you to think they watch the AAC games, Schmolik. I think they just scroll through the scores.

I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

(11-29-2022 07:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

I see it differently - I'm disappointed Ohio State didn't fall to #6. I would have them behind Alabama as "first up" if TCU or USC falters. Though these are the top six I expected.

I'm disappointed and surprised that head to head, 2 enormously better wins, and a better record against common opponents didn't trump better losses in the Tennessee vs Bama debate. But I'm not mad about it, I'll freely admit that the Committee is more knowledgeable about CFB than I am.

(11-29-2022 07:21 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It would have been different had:

1. LSU won
2. tOSU beat UM handily.

Bama could have stayed in the 6 range ready to jump both UM and LSU (after losing to UGa). USC losing to ND would have taken them out as well.

Bama vs UM would have been a lot more interesting had UM lost by 2 TD. tOSU also has the implicit bias that UM doesn't have.

You don't need implicit bias when you win almost every game by double digits. I'm no fan of the B1G or especially of tOSU, but any team in their situation would be extremely tough to pass for a 2 loss team. I think that any team from the B1G or SEC would be in the exact spot that tOSU is: in 5th with a chance to move up to 4th. And extremely flawed 2 loss teams like bama and Tennessee just don't have the resume to even be in that conversation.

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

The refs were terrible in the Tennessee Alabama game. Alabama also committed a ton of penalties. A perfect storm of things happened for Tennessee to edge out Bama by 3 on a FG as time expired at home in front of over 100,000 Tennessee fans. Do you think Bama wouldn’t be favored to win a rematch on a neutral field? I think they would and probably the committee does too and that’s probably a big part of why Alabama is ahead of Tennessee. The other part is instead of losing by 1 and 3 on the last play of the game like Alabama did, Tennessee lost by 14 and 25. I’m not sure what’s to be surprised about.

(11-29-2022 07:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Tulane-UCF is now officially for the access slot.

Yes. The AAC Champion will take the Access bid for the 6th year in a row and 7 of last 8 — the one exception was 13-0 Western Michigan in 2016, chosen over Temple, San Diego State, and Western Kentucky (all 10-3).

I remember when the current structure was created, a lot of people thought Boise State would get it most years. But they only got it once — 2014, the first season — and neither the Broncos nor any other Mtn West team has gotten it since.

(11-29-2022 08:48 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

The refs were terrible in the Tennessee Alabama game. Alabama also committed a ton of penalties. A perfect storm of things happened for Tennessee to edge out Bama by 3 on a FG as time expired at home in front of over 100,000 Tennessee fans. Do you think Bama wouldn’t be favored to win a rematch on a neutral field? I think they would and probably the committee does too and that’s probably a big part of why Alabama is ahead of Tennessee. The other part is instead of losing by 1 and 3 on the last play of the game like Alabama did, Tennessee lost by 14 and 25. I’m not sure what’s to be surprised about.

I don't think bama should have beaten A&M or Texas, they're lucky to not be 8-4.

If you want to discuss the relative strengths, I'd rather have Tennessee's top 2 wins over any of bama's 2 wins. Tennessee beat bama, and they dominated LSU on the road. Bama lost to the 2 best teams they played, they were outplayed by the 3rd best team they played, and they were VERY lucky to escape a 5-7 A&M. Tennessee went 2-1 against the 3 best teams they played and were only outplayed by Georgia, which doesn't look bad on anyone's resume. It is possible that bama is ahead of Tennessee b/c Hooker is out for the year. That's a reasonable discussion point.